Dohlar and Destabilization

tootall wrote:

Henry Brown wrote:I think Ahlverez will be safe. He was not in overall command. His advice was repeatedly ignored. He was by far the strongest commander in the joint Desniarian/Dohlaran army. And he was able to preserve at least part of that force from utter destruction (at least as of the end of LAMA). Finally, the man who really was in command and who really is responsible is dead and unable to defend himself. I think that the recently deceased Duke Harless is going to be scapegoated.

All that is true- WE know it.
But all his enemies are going to get the word out FIRST. Easy to spin- it was Ahlverez's spy that had us fooled. Ahlverez's infantry failed to break thru the Charisians- Alverez ran with his whole command. Ahlverez was always contrary and disruptive. By the time he gets back he will be soooo smeared and slimmed, he'll be weeks- months- getting the truth out.

Turning that around, do THEY know that "Slayter" was deliberately feeding them false info? He walked off with the message wyverns and was never seen again. For all the Temple Boys know, he could have been captured or killed trying to get through Charisian lines and his wyverns appropriated by the Charisians.

And I'm pretty sure as of the end of LAMA, they HAVEN'T figured out that Slayter was feeding them false info. So as far as Alvarez is concerned, he's safe in that regard. For the moment anyway.

Hi Don,

Quite right.

Most of this speculation is based on what we know, not what Rainos or the Go4 knows, which are worlds apart.

Nor is anyone is going to take Ahlverez into custody over the opposition of his inquisitor and army; while Hennet was obviously cowardly, though how he and his body guard [at least a regiment in strength?] was able to travel a thousand miles to the Daivyn in only 10-15 days, even the latter is such a really fast trip without stopping for forage or resting the horses etc, is even more impressive given how disrupted the farming in Cliff Peak has been and the current time of year.

So Hennet who went in with around 160 cavalry regiments and came out with 1 or 2 is to believed over the general who brought almost 35% of his force plus over 5% of the AoJ?

Right.

Where as Ahlverez has only ~600 miles to cross the Seridahn River and had already marched half that while DE disposed of the AoJ, ie the rest of the AoS, that Hennet made no attempt to save.

So despite being almost all infantry, Ahlverez may regain contact with the CoGA again about the same time Hennet did, considerably mitigating whatever accusations Hennet makes, if he didn't have messenger wyverns, which I suspect they had some, if they were so free to lend some to Zapyth Slaytyr.

I also strongly suspect Ahlverez's inquisitor's report will make very interesting reading, especially given the fact that Duchairn already suspected the Desnari logistics weren't up to the job, NTM the pile up near Thesmar proves it, plus they had refused his help unlike the RDA, and everyone knows the Desnari incompetence when it comes to supply has played a major role in every Desnari defeat at the hands of the RSA over the past couple of centuries, so Rhobair and Allayn from other reports already have a good idea at how incompetent the IDA leadership was and is.

So while Clyntahn may want to fry Ahlverez, for his usual inept reasons, I don't think he'll succeed since among other things Rainos is a first cousin to the Duke of Malikai, and an earl in his own right IIRC, besides being the senior RDA officer active in the field.

One way Fern may try to protect him is to promote him for saving what he could of the army ahead of any arrest.

Besides, do you seriously think RFC would build up his character this way to whack him so abruptly?

His going to be a player in what happens to Dohlar, he the army, Thirsk the navy or what's left of it, and who ever else like the Duke of Fern, is smart enough to join them.

Who knows, if he is still arrested, and put on some island prison waiting to travel to Zion, it might be Thirsk's marines etc that liberate him on some technicality.

L

n7axw wrote:

BarryKirk wrote:*quote="n7axw"* Dunno... Ahlverez is in a bit better position than Thirsk was. Harless, Hennett, Hankey, etc. are all Desnairians whom the Dohlarians don't like anyhow plus he has some of the same family connections as Malikai and Thorst. His inquisitor signed off on his retreat. More than three fourths of his force was lost so no one can accuse Ahlvarez of lacking fighting spirit. So... he could come out ok.

Don*quote*

Clyntahn will need someone to send to the question. Doesn't much matter if its his best commander.

Maybe. But I think Ahlvarez has better cover than Thirsk. Besides, the inquisition isn't going to have a lot of time before the EOC arrives. Besides, how are his troops going to react if Ahlvarez is scapegoated when they know no one else could have gotten them out of the jam they found themselves in? Armies can make their displeasure known more directly than navies can. Clynthan may well find himself bumping up against his limitations...

Don

If Zaspher wanted to fry someone he wouldn't care what his intendant said. Hell he's likely to fry the intendabt just to ake a point.

Annachie wrote:If Zaspher wanted to fry someone he wouldn't care what his intendant said. Hell he's likely to fry the intendabt just to ake a point.

I think he sears, broils, and bakes more than fries according to the textev!

Though I wouldn't rule out an available pot of boiling oil out of hand.

Annachie wrote:If Zaspher wanted to fry someone he wouldn't care what his intendant said. Hell he's likely to fry the intendabt just to ake a point.

Zhasphar isn't almighty and the universe he's built around himself is already crumbling rather rapidly. I wouldn't be surprised if he found himself preoccupied with more urgent matters before Ahlvarez makes it back to Dohlar... like what is about to happen to his army at the Sylvan Gap.

Don

n7axw wrote: Besides, how are his troops going to react if Ahlvarez is scapegoated when they know no one else could have gotten them out of the jam they found themselves in? Armies can make their displeasure known more directly than navies can. Clynthan may well find himself bumping up against his limitations...

Don

This is nother scenario that might become a factor in destabilizing Dohlar. Sooner or later, a lot of people behind the lines may find themselves conflicted between blindly accepting the CoGA's edicts and propganda, on the one hand, and what the evidence before their own eyes, and the wrongness of the consequences, on the other. This is beginning to happen to larger and larger groups of people, behind the lines. It's happened to Thirsk's navy. It may well happen to Ahlverez' army. And it may well grow, if things go on like they are.

Other interesting thoughts - what is happening to the prisoners Charis has taken. They won't be treated badly, and may have access to their own priests. When they realize they're not going to be tortured, as CoGA had told them, what happens? If some are repatriated, what happens? Will RFC give us a conversation among civilians in a tavern, when some of these things come to light? Lord, the possibilities are endless. It remains to see which possibilities (likely not any of the ones in this thread, but who knows?) rfc uses, and where he takes things.

The speculation and the anticipation, while at times killing me, actually are quite fun.

All the best,

X

lyonheart Wrote:


I also strongly suspect Ahlverez's inquisitor's report will make very interesting reading, especially given the fact that Duchairn already suspected the Desnari logistics weren't up to the job,

Rhobair and Allayn from other reports already have a good idea at how incompetent the IDA leadership was and is.

One way Fern may try to protect him is to promote him for saving what he could of the army ahead of any arrest.

Besides, do you seriously think RFC would build up his character this way to whack him so abruptly?


Who knows, if he is still arrested, and put on some island prison waiting to travel to Zion, it might be Thirsk's marines etc that liberate him on some technicality.

I agree with your post- I just disagree with your conclusion.

Ahlverez-"in deep trouble" (not whacked)is so much better plot-wise. Here are a few of the possibilities:

1) It's SO unfair. (And it fires up the readership-that would be us )
2) Kry, Hankey, and Hennett get to purjure themselves
2a) The scene when it catches up with the above three.
3)He gets involved with Thrisk-(positively)-or vice-versa)
4) In the Gang of Four, Clytahn... rushes to judgement- against the wishes of the other three.
5) We get to see the inquisition "try" to take him into custody.
6) We get to see his army's reaction-and that of the Desnairians who managed to attach themselves to him and are likely aware of how good he really is.
7)There's lots of hand wringing amoung the Dohlar high command. (Who have his reports)
8) Ditto Desnarian high command.
9) None of his hard earned experience is put into use-(just as Thrisk was a pariah) some of the establishment comes to him anyway- setting up more inquisition intrigue.

None of those interesting things happen if Ahlverez gets home a hero.

tootall wrote:lyonheart Wrote:


I also strongly suspect Ahlverez's inquisitor's report will make very interesting reading, especially given the fact that Duchairn already suspected the Desnari logistics weren't up to the job,

Rhobair and Allayn from other reports already have a good idea at how incompetent the IDA leadership was and is.

One way Fern may try to protect him is to promote him for saving what he could of the army ahead of any arrest.

Besides, do you seriously think RFC would build up his character this way to whack him so abruptly?


Who knows, if he is still arrested, and put on some island prison waiting to travel to Zion, it might be Thirsk's marines etc that liberate him on some technicality.

I agree with your post- I just disagree with your conclusion.

Ahlverez-"in deep trouble" (not whacked)is so much better plot-wise. Here are a few of the possibilities:

1) It's SO unfair. (And it fires up the readership-that would be us )
2) Kry, Hankey, and Hennett get to purjure themselves
2a) The scene when it catches up with the above three.
3)He gets involved with Thrisk-(positively)-or vice-versa)
4) In the Gang of Four, Clytahn... rushes to judgement- against the wishes of the other three.
5) We get to see the inquisition "try" to take him into custody.
6) We get to see his army's reaction-and that of the Desnairians who managed to attach themselves to him and are likely aware of how good he really is.
7)There's lots of hand wringing amoung the Dohlar high command. (Who have his reports)
8) Ditto Desnarian high command.
9) None of his hard earned experience is put into use-(just as Thrisk was a pariah) some of the establishment comes to him anyway- setting up more inquisition intrigue.

None of those interesting things happen if Ahlverez gets home a hero.

That all presumes that Ahlvarez gets back to Dohlar intact and the Dohlarians aren't under military pressure. My guess would be that he gets back alright, but right on his heels will be Eastshare's army. If that turns out true, there isn't going to be time for the inquisition to act or anybody else to conspire.

Should there be time, however, I imagine that some of the brighter light bulbs amongst the inquisition are going to note that it was Ahlvarez's Dohlarians who took the most combat fatalities. Right off the top of my head, I count somewhere between 60 and 70 thousand casualties for the Dohlarians thoughout the course of the campaign. Most of the Desnairian casualities, however, were due to poor provisioning and starvation.

Don

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

Quite right.

Most of this speculation is based on what we know, not what Rainos or the Go4 knows, which are worlds apart.

Nor is anyone is going to take Ahlverez into custody over the opposition of his inquisitor and army; while Hennet was obviously cowardly, though how he and his body guard [at least a regiment in strength?] was able to travel a thousand miles to the Daivyn in only 10-15 days, even the latter is such a really fast trip without stopping for forage or resting the horses etc, is even more impressive given how disrupted the farming in Cliff Peak has been and the current time of year.

So Hennet who went in with around 160 cavalry regiments and came out with 1 or 2 is to believed over the general who brought almost 35% of his force plus over 5% of the AoJ?

Right.

Where as Ahlverez has only ~600 miles to cross the Seridahn River and had already marched half that while DE disposed of the AoJ, ie the rest of the AoS, that Hennet made no attempt to save.

So despite being almost all infantry, Ahlverez may regain contact with the CoGA again about the same time Hennet did, considerably mitigating whatever accusations Hennet makes, if he didn't have messenger wyverns, which I suspect they had some, if they were so free to lend some to Zapyth Slaytyr.

I also strongly suspect Ahlverez's inquisitor's report will make very interesting reading, especially given the fact that Duchairn already suspected the Desnari logistics weren't up to the job, NTM the pile up near Thesmar proves it, plus they had refused his help unlike the RDA, and everyone knows the Desnari incompetence when it comes to supply has played a major role in every Desnari defeat at the hands of the RSA over the past couple of centuries, so Rhobair and Allayn from other reports already have a good idea at how incompetent the IDA leadership was and is.

So while Clyntahn may want to fry Ahlverez, for his usual inept reasons, I don't think he'll succeed since among other things Rainos is a first cousin to the Duke of Malikai, and an earl in his own right IIRC, besides being the senior RDA officer active in the field.

One way Fern may try to protect him is to promote him for saving what he could of the army ahead of any arrest.

Besides, do you seriously think RFC would build up his character this way to whack him so abruptly?

His going to be a player in what happens to Dohlar, he the army, Thirsk the navy or what's left of it, and who ever else like the Duke of Fern, is smart enough to join them.

Who knows, if he is still arrested, and put on some island prison waiting to travel to Zion, it might be Thirsk's marines etc that liberate him on some technicality.

Dohlarans pretty much despise Desnair, so in any dispute Ahlverez will get the benefit of the doubt from his own government. If Clyntahn insists on punishing him it will only fray an already stressed relationship when he can least afford it.

Ahlverez commands the only effective field army Dohlar has, injured as it is. Assuming they get to Evrytyn they'll be vital in its defense. And Evrytyn has to be held. If it falls the Allies have two options:
1. They can move into Dohlar, which will basically have nothing to throw in their way. The allies don't have the manpower to actually occupy all or part of Dohlar, but they could do a updated version of Sherman's March.

2. They can move Northwest toward Dairnyth. If they take that then Kaitswyrth looses his main supply line. If Clyntahn's going to be angry about what happened to the Army of Shiloh, his reaction at loosing the Army of Glacierheart would be indescribable (though I look forward to RFC trying ).

Either one of these options could turn disaster into catastrophe as far as the jihad is concerned.

jms

Hi XofDallas,

Welcome to the forums and enjoy your cg favorite beverage on the cg forum.

If Ahlverez is scapegoated and again the only one is Hennet because both Hankey and Kyr were captured or killed, so only Hennet could accuse him, but he has to answer for abandoning his command, while Ahlverez brought all of what was left of his out with him, plus 13,000 Desnari infantry [about a quarter] who didn't anyone else try to save them, while Hennet allowed a quarter of his cavalry regiments to starve to death then abandoned the rest to their fate rather than attempt to fight, quite an important distinction.

Gates survived Camden because "he had a fast horse"; while Gates survived, I'm betting Hennet won't since Clyntahn isn't as forgiving as the Continental Congress, RFC echoed Camden for a reason.

If Ahlverez is scapegoated, and his army reacts the way expected, what does he and they do then, ask for asylum from the alliance?

Seriously?

By the way, Ahlverez will then have some 45,000+ rather loyal troops, larger than anything else Dohlar has in the field, Desnar's AoJ being assembled from units mainly in the northern provinces, so darn little is left to defend Silkiah etc.

If he runs into Silkiah rather than go to Dohlar, neither Dohlar or Desnar has any force big enough within hundreds of miles to stop him.

What happens then could be quite entertaining.

We don't know what the policy of the alliance or the SR towards it's TL's that want to stay by switching etc, though those still holding on in Mountain cross province were encouraged to leave, but some policy of working off their debt to the republic may still be possible, despite all the understandable reasons for kicking them out.

The alliance has yet to invade or occupy foreign territory, so we haven't seen how TL loyalists are treated in their own countries, but Cayleb and Greyghor aren't stupid, and Charisian mercy and generosity has won it far more than the sword has, so we may see scenes you wonder about in the month's to come, but not for a while yet.

Regarding all the CoGA POW's, farming has be suggested by many though I've suggested digging a canal connecting the Branath Canal and the St Alyk river ~75 miles [not including blasting through the ~62 miles of shallows below Syrk], rebuilding Shiloh will evidently take years.

L

XofDallas wrote:*quote="n7axw"* Besides, how are his troops going to react if Ahlvarez is scapegoated when they know no one else could have gotten them out of the jam they found themselves in? Armies can make their displeasure known more directly than navies can. Clynthan may well find himself bumping up against his limitations...

Don*/quote*

This is nother scenario that might become a factor in destabilizing Dohlar. Sooner or later, a lot of people behind the lines may find themselves conflicted between blindly accepting the CoGA's edicts and propganda, on the one hand, and what the evidence before their own eyes, and the wrongness of the consequences, on the other. This is beginning to happen to larger and larger groups of people, behind the lines. It's happened to Thirsk's navy. It may well happen to Ahlverez' army. And it may well grow, if things go on like they are.

Other interesting thoughts - what is happening to the prisoners Charis has taken. They won't be treated badly, and may have access to their own priests. When they realize they're not going to be tortured, as CoGA had told them, what happens? If some are repatriated, what happens? Will RFC give us a conversation among civilians in a tavern, when some of these things come to light? Lord, the possibilities are endless. It remains to see which possibilities (likely not any of the ones in this thread, but who knows?) rfc uses, and where he takes things.

The speculation and the anticipation, while at times killing me, actually are quite fun.

All the best,

X