Resource Limits

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Re: Resource Limits
by n7axw » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:24 pm
n7axw Fleet Admiral Posts: 5997 Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:54 pm Location: Viborg, SD	PeterZ wrote: n7axw wrote:The Raven Lands don't have enough people to serve as a significant source of labor for the empire. Nor is their clan structure and culture suitable for that. The EOC has about 72 million people and its agriculture has developed to the point where they have a fairly substantial work force in its nonagricultural sectors. The big multiplier already developing and which is enabling the EOC to compete with the mainland along side its military tech is the mechanization of its industrial sector which makes it possible for its labor force to be far more productive than its competition. Don Don, The current disparity in industrial productivity can't last. IIRC, the US had 60% of its population working farms until the 20th century. I hazzard to guess that Charis won't reduce that percentage by much until after the Proscriptions have been recinded and the OBS removed. I would further guess that the mainland will approach that percentage much more closely than Charis would wish. Between Charis, Siddermark and Silkiah there are ~250 million people supporting those nations' economies. That leaves 750 million everywhere else. Assuming Charis manages 40% of its population working outside aggriculture and the CoGA nations manage 30%, the EoC has to be 8 times more productive in industrial production to match the CoGA. That's easily done right now, but the CoGA has a steeper learning curve. If the CoGA employs some less efficient steam engines in their industrial production, streamlines their processes and imrpoves productivity 3 fold from their base, Charis has to increase by 3 times along a much flatter improvement curve. At one point the gains in productivity for Charis can't keep pace with those of the CoGA nations. They have to increase their population. So long as Siddermark remains part of their alliance, all is well. Should Siddermark leave for any reason, the Charisian population has to grow much more quickly than their mainland rivals or they will be out produced. Hi Peter, Great post as always. First of all, Siddarmark isn't about to leave the alliance at least for the duration of the war if for no other reason than they are dependent of the Charisian industrial sector for their survival. And I doubt that after what Clyntahn tried to pull, the COGA and the inquisition will be invited back anytime soon. I think my previous post stands up pretty good. I don't remember the figures very well. But think about the agricultural sector, for example. Each Charisian farmer is enormously more productive than his mainland counterpart. All those extra people that the mainlanders need to farm just as well be sitting in the bleachers. Or think about the industrial sector. The Temple Lands are starting to organize their guild workers into teams called circles. An improvement but not enough. All Housmyn has to do to up his production is add another assembly line with powered tools to produce huge results. And the EOCs labor market is far from saturated. Its still got lots of room to grow. The thing hurting the Temple right now is the mentality that all change is against the prescriptions and thus counter to God's will. So they are constantly behind the curve as they imitate what Charis does, being dragged kicking and screaming into change they don't want. As long as that remains true, they will never be able to compete. I suspect that where your assertion about the EOC needing more numbers hold true is in the long term. Imagine the war being over, the power of the COGA broken, the ability of the inquisition to coerce abolished, the proscriptions discredited. Then, and only then, will the mainland economies begin to successfully compete with Charis. Then the assertion that the EOC needs more people may well hold true. By tthe time those things happen, it won't matter. Merlin's goal of getting Safehold on the road to recovering its tech will have been accomplished. That will only be the first step. But you know what they say about the road to Rome. Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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by n7axw » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:24 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
n7axw wrote:The Raven Lands don't have enough people to serve as a significant source of labor for the empire. Nor is their clan structure and culture suitable for that.

The EOC has about 72 million people and its agriculture has developed to the point where they have a fairly substantial work force in its nonagricultural sectors. The big multiplier already developing and which is enabling the EOC to compete with the mainland along side its military tech is the mechanization of its industrial sector which makes it possible for its labor force to be far more productive than its competition.

Don

Don,

The current disparity in industrial productivity can't last. IIRC, the US had 60% of its population working farms until the 20th century. I hazzard to guess that Charis won't reduce that percentage by much until after the Proscriptions have been recinded and the OBS removed. I would further guess that the mainland will approach that percentage much more closely than Charis would wish.

Between Charis, Siddermark and Silkiah there are ~250 million people supporting those nations' economies. That leaves 750 million everywhere else. Assuming Charis manages 40% of its population working outside aggriculture and the CoGA nations manage 30%, the EoC has to be 8 times more productive in industrial production to match the CoGA. That's easily done right now, but the CoGA has a steeper learning curve. If the CoGA employs some less efficient steam engines in their industrial production, streamlines their processes and imrpoves productivity 3 fold from their base, Charis has to increase by 3 times along a much flatter improvement curve. At one point the gains in productivity for Charis can't keep pace with those of the CoGA nations. They have to increase their population.

So long as Siddermark remains part of their alliance, all is well. Should Siddermark leave for any reason, the Charisian population has to grow much more quickly than their mainland rivals or they will be out produced.

Hi Peter,

Great post as always. First of all, Siddarmark isn't about to leave the alliance at least for the duration of the war if for no other reason than they are dependent of the Charisian industrial sector for their survival. And I doubt that after what Clyntahn tried to pull, the COGA and the inquisition will be invited back anytime soon.

I think my previous post stands up pretty good. I don't remember the figures very well. But think about the agricultural sector, for example. Each Charisian farmer is enormously more productive than his mainland counterpart. All those extra people that the mainlanders need to farm just as well be sitting in the bleachers.

Or think about the industrial sector. The Temple Lands are starting to organize their guild workers into teams called circles. An improvement but not enough. All Housmyn has to do to up his production is add another assembly line with powered tools to produce huge results. And the EOCs labor market is far from saturated. Its still got lots of room to grow.

The thing hurting the Temple right now is the mentality that all change is against the prescriptions and thus counter to God's will. So they are constantly behind the curve as they imitate what Charis does, being dragged kicking and screaming into change they don't want. As long as that remains true, they will never be able to compete.

I suspect that where your assertion about the EOC needing more numbers hold true is in the long term. Imagine the war being over, the power of the COGA broken, the ability of the inquisition to coerce abolished, the proscriptions discredited. Then, and only then, will the mainland economies begin to successfully compete with Charis. Then the assertion that the EOC needs more people may well hold true.

By tthe time those things happen, it won't matter. Merlin's goal of getting Safehold on the road to recovering its tech will have been accomplished. That will only be the first step. But you know what they say about the road to Rome.

Don

When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.

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Re: Resource Limits
by Lazalarlives » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:06 pm
Lazalarlives Lieutenant (Senior Grade) Posts: 85 Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:43 am Location: Missouri	All, Just one thing to bring up regarding agricultural productivity. Charis is in a tropic zone and capable of year-round agricultural production, producing up to three crops a year. This reduces the dedicated manpower vis-a-vis the artisan class. Fishing and whaling are also relatively high return on manpower. Charis was able to free up 10-15% more population from food production/gathering compared to mainland realms even before the modernization efforts. Ultimately, Charis had a headstart and will be able to keep that larger proportion of individuals on tasks other than food acquisition no matter what other factors come into play. The Temple Lands' and Northern Harchong's climate mean they have to put more workers in the field to exploit their limited growing seasons - and those workers require a larger proportion of the yeild to survive the year through on that shorter season. This is why Charis and the islands had been net exporters of foodstuffs, not just manufactured goods. Charis' agriculture - things like wheat and citrus - was competitively priced enough that the COGA was thinking about how to divvy up that profit when they got done taking the kingdom apart. Unless and until the COGA moves industrialization out to the farms, they're going to be severely handicapped regarding military operations. Note that they still think in 'campaigning seasons'; this is only mildly based on weather. It has more to do with needing everyone for planting and harvesting, plus the slaughter of meat animals to make sure the winter fodder is sufficient for the breeding stock. Anyhow, with the wheat fields in western Ukra... er, Siddarmark not producing, there's likely to be a shortage that will affect the whole continent. Scarcity of product, in this case wheat for bread, is more likely to crash the COGA combined economy. Which is what Duchairn has been saying for a while. Anyhow, just my 2 bits. Dave
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Re: Resource Limits

by Lazalarlives » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:06 pm

Lazalarlives
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Posts: 85
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:43 am
Location: Missouri

All,
Just one thing to bring up regarding agricultural productivity. Charis is in a tropic zone and capable of year-round agricultural production, producing up to three crops a year. This reduces the dedicated manpower vis-a-vis the artisan class. Fishing and whaling are also relatively high return on manpower. Charis was able to free up 10-15% more population from food production/gathering compared to mainland realms even before the modernization efforts.
Ultimately, Charis had a headstart and will be able to keep that larger proportion of individuals on tasks other than food acquisition no matter what other factors come into play. The Temple Lands' and Northern Harchong's climate mean they have to put more workers in the field to exploit their limited growing seasons - and those workers require a larger proportion of the yeild to survive the year through on that shorter season.
This is why Charis and the islands had been net exporters of foodstuffs, not just manufactured goods. Charis' agriculture - things like wheat and citrus - was competitively priced enough that the COGA was thinking about how to divvy up that profit when they got done taking the kingdom apart.
Unless and until the COGA moves industrialization out to the farms, they're going to be severely handicapped regarding military operations.
Note that they still think in 'campaigning seasons'; this is only mildly based on weather. It has more to do with needing everyone for planting and harvesting, plus the slaughter of meat animals to make sure the winter fodder is sufficient for the breeding stock.
Anyhow, with the wheat fields in western Ukra... er, Siddarmark not producing, there's likely to be a shortage that will affect the whole continent. Scarcity of product, in this case wheat for bread, is more likely to crash the COGA combined economy. Which is what Duchairn has been saying for a while.
Anyhow, just my 2 bits.
Dave

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Re: Resource Limits
by evilauthor » Wed Aug 13, 2014 8:08 pm
evilauthor Captain of the List Posts: 724 Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:51 pm	Tonto Silerheels wrote:Another source of manpower is those people who are unemployed or underemployed. We've seen some of this in Charis, too, as many women are becoming gunsmiths. You know, where we've really seen unemployed? Zion. Every. Single. Book. There's mention of the legions of poor in Zion, how much they're suffering because there's inadequate shelter for them. Etc etc and so forth. Then the Army (and Navy) of God gets put together. Stone masons and merchants and shepherds are turned into soldiers and sent to fight Charis and Siddarmark. Temple Guardsmen who were little more than glorified policemen suddenly became genuine military officers. And Zion's poor? They're still there. There's not a hint that ANY of them had been recruited (or drafted) into the Army of God. Not a single viewpoint character reflected that he used to be poor and homeless in Zion. The Temple is taking people from productive jobs and sticking them in the army while completely ignoring the legions of unemployed and thus unproductive poor lying around their capital city. It struck me as a peculiar oversight that no one in the entire Temple hierarchy thought to use Zion's poor in their army, or if they did, kept the notion to themselves.
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Re: Resource Limits

by evilauthor » Wed Aug 13, 2014 8:08 pm

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Tonto Silerheels wrote:Another source of manpower is those people who are unemployed or underemployed. We've seen some of this in Charis, too, as many women are becoming gunsmiths.

You know, where we've really seen unemployed? Zion. Every. Single. Book. There's mention of the legions of poor in Zion, how much they're suffering because there's inadequate shelter for them. Etc etc and so forth.

Then the Army (and Navy) of God gets put together. Stone masons and merchants and shepherds are turned into soldiers and sent to fight Charis and Siddarmark. Temple Guardsmen who were little more than glorified policemen suddenly became genuine military officers.

And Zion's poor? They're still there. There's not a hint that ANY of them had been recruited (or drafted) into the Army of God. Not a single viewpoint character reflected that he used to be poor and homeless in Zion. The Temple is taking people from productive jobs and sticking them in the army while completely ignoring the legions of unemployed and thus unproductive poor lying around their capital city.

It struck me as a peculiar oversight that no one in the entire Temple hierarchy thought to use Zion's poor in their army, or if they did, kept the notion to themselves.

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Re: Resource Limits
by Lazalarlives » Wed Aug 13, 2014 8:25 pm
Lazalarlives Lieutenant (Senior Grade) Posts: 85 Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:43 am Location: Missouri	Evilauthor, The poor in Zion are likely not suitable for military service - a body is not a body is a body. They're in worse shape, likely both physical and mental, than the tradesmen. Many are petty thieves and beggars - hardly the core of yeomanry used for militaries. They're survivors, but individual survivors. The COGA is used to the poor - so used to them that they ignore them like nits and lice in the dark ages. Remember that Duchairn is the first vicar since the Circle was destroyed that has even tried to help the orders working with the poor. Clyntahn sees them as little more than parasites - the sick, lame, and lazy. He was all for letting them starve and/or freeze. Remember that even in our world, piety is often tied to a full stomach. Zion doesn't have hoardes of angry young men seeking jobs - they have the bastard children, the cast-off mistresses, and the usual sick, crazed, crooked, and zealous who flock to any holy city to seek miracle cures, visions from God, and the next easy mark. No, Zion may be full of homeless and poor, but it is not full of potential soldiers - or even steady workers. Just my two bits, Dave
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Re: Resource Limits

by Lazalarlives » Wed Aug 13, 2014 8:25 pm

Lazalarlives
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Posts: 85
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:43 am
Location: Missouri

Evilauthor,

The poor in Zion are likely not suitable for military service - a body is not a body is a body. They're in worse shape, likely both physical and mental, than the tradesmen. Many are petty thieves and beggars - hardly the core of yeomanry used for militaries. They're survivors, but individual survivors.

The COGA is used to the poor - so used to them that they ignore them like nits and lice in the dark ages. Remember that Duchairn is the first vicar since the Circle was destroyed that has even tried to help the orders working with the poor. Clyntahn sees them as little more than parasites - the sick, lame, and lazy. He was all for letting them starve and/or freeze.

Remember that even in our world, piety is often tied to a full stomach. Zion doesn't have hoardes of angry young men seeking jobs - they have the bastard children, the cast-off mistresses, and the usual sick, crazed, crooked, and zealous who flock to any holy city to seek miracle cures, visions from God, and the next easy mark.

No, Zion may be full of homeless and poor, but it is not full of potential soldiers - or even steady workers.

Just my two bits,
Dave

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Re: Resource Limits
by evilauthor » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:00 am
evilauthor Captain of the List Posts: 724 Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:51 pm	Lazalarlives wrote:Evilauthor, The poor in Zion are likely not suitable for military service - a body is not a body is a body. They're in worse shape, likely both physical and mental, than the tradesmen. Many are petty thieves and beggars - hardly the core of yeomanry used for militaries. They're survivors, but individual survivors. The COGA is used to the poor - so used to them that they ignore them like nits and lice in the dark ages. Remember that Duchairn is the first vicar since the Circle was destroyed that has even tried to help the orders working with the poor. Clyntahn sees them as little more than parasites - the sick, lame, and lazy. He was all for letting them starve and/or freeze. Remember that even in our world, piety is often tied to a full stomach. Zion doesn't have hoardes of angry young men seeking jobs - they have the bastard children, the cast-off mistresses, and the usual sick, crazed, crooked, and zealous who flock to any holy city to seek miracle cures, visions from God, and the next easy mark. No, Zion may be full of homeless and poor, but it is not full of potential soldiers - or even steady workers. Just my two bits, Dave I dunno about that. I think a substantial portion of the poor are former business owners driven out of business by Church graft, pilgrims who traveled to Zion and couldn't afford to leave (again because of Church corruption creating unanticipated expenses), etc etc and so forth. Given how much the text lingers on them, it's kind of implied that Zion has an excessive number of homeless poor even in comparison to other corruption ridden nations like Harchong or Desnair. It seems logical to me that Church graft has created quite a number of them. I can buy that the Church didn't even think of recruiting Zion's poor into their army because they've mentally pigeonholed them as useless parasites. It's "blinkers and blinders" all over again. What I can't buy is that they literally cannot turn the poor (or at least the adult male poor) into soldiers if they tried. Military training after all is all about turning civilians into soldiers. And if nothing else, the Army provides regular meals and shelter... when their supply lines are getting shot up by Charisians anyway.
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Re: Resource Limits

by evilauthor » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:00 am

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Lazalarlives wrote:Evilauthor,

The poor in Zion are likely not suitable for military service - a body is not a body is a body. They're in worse shape, likely both physical and mental, than the tradesmen. Many are petty thieves and beggars - hardly the core of yeomanry used for militaries. They're survivors, but individual survivors.

The COGA is used to the poor - so used to them that they ignore them like nits and lice in the dark ages. Remember that Duchairn is the first vicar since the Circle was destroyed that has even tried to help the orders working with the poor. Clyntahn sees them as little more than parasites - the sick, lame, and lazy. He was all for letting them starve and/or freeze.

Remember that even in our world, piety is often tied to a full stomach. Zion doesn't have hoardes of angry young men seeking jobs - they have the bastard children, the cast-off mistresses, and the usual sick, crazed, crooked, and zealous who flock to any holy city to seek miracle cures, visions from God, and the next easy mark.

No, Zion may be full of homeless and poor, but it is not full of potential soldiers - or even steady workers.

Just my two bits,
Dave

I dunno about that. I think a substantial portion of the poor are former business owners driven out of business by Church graft, pilgrims who traveled to Zion and couldn't afford to leave (again because of Church corruption creating unanticipated expenses), etc etc and so forth.

Given how much the text lingers on them, it's kind of implied that Zion has an excessive number of homeless poor even in comparison to other corruption ridden nations like Harchong or Desnair. It seems logical to me that Church graft has created quite a number of them.

I can buy that the Church didn't even think of recruiting Zion's poor into their army because they've mentally pigeonholed them as useless parasites. It's "blinkers and blinders" all over again.

What I can't buy is that they literally cannot turn the poor (or at least the adult male poor) into soldiers if they tried. Military training after all is all about turning civilians into soldiers. And if nothing else, the Army provides regular meals and shelter... when their supply lines are getting shot up by Charisians anyway.

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Re: Resource Limits
by Weird Harold » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:20 am
Weird Harold Fleet Admiral Posts: 4478 Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:25 pm Location: "Lost Wages", NV	evilauthor wrote:What I can't buy is that they literally cannot turn the poor (or at least the adult male poor) into soldiers if they tried. Military training after all is all about turning civilians into soldiers. And if nothing else, the Army provides regular meals and shelter... when their supply lines are getting shot up by Charisians anyway. They probably could turn a large percentage of the adult male poor into soldiers. The problem would be in sorting out the feeble, insane, or incorrigible from those that could be turned into soldiers. I would think that the allure of regular meals and shelter would attract any of the poor who would be useful as more than cannon fodder and mine-detectors. . . . Answers! I got lots of answers! (Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Resource Limits

by Weird Harold » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:20 am

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evilauthor wrote:What I can't buy is that they literally cannot turn the poor (or at least the adult male poor) into soldiers if they tried. Military training after all is all about turning civilians into soldiers. And if nothing else, the Army provides regular meals and shelter... when their supply lines are getting shot up by Charisians anyway.

They probably could turn a large percentage of the adult male poor into soldiers. The problem would be in sorting out the feeble, insane, or incorrigible from those that could be turned into soldiers.

I would think that the allure of regular meals and shelter would attract any of the poor who would be useful as more than cannon fodder and mine-detectors.

.
.
.
Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)

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Re: Resource Limits
by lyonheart » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:09 am
lyonheart Fleet Admiral Posts: 4853 Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:27 pm	Hi Don, Kudos for another excellent post. Siddarmark isn't leaving the alliance anytime soon, to second your points regarding their dependence on Charis's industrial sector, they can't and survive; since they seemed determined to do just that and have been quite rational so far, I don't see them cutting a deal with whatever is left of the CoGA that undercuts their survival in any way. Given how tiny the respective workforces are, worrying about manpower allocation is a concern for the next war. Bear in mind that by then, after Silkiah, Dohlar and the Border States are gone or part of the alliance; plus 20 years of various island refuges, the underground railroad [Buy Sodar!] and CoC propaganda regarding the serfs needing to be freed in particular, the liberating power of tolerance the EoC demonstrates everyday, the CoGA may be the minority even on Haven and Howard! L n7axw wrote: PeterZ wrote:quote="n7axw" The Raven Lands don't have enough people to serve as a significant source of labor for the empire. Nor is their clan structure and culture suitable for that. The EOC has about 72 million people and its agriculture has developed to the point where they have a fairly substantial work force in its nonagricultural sectors. The big multiplier already developing and which is enabling the EOC to compete with the mainland along side its military tech is the mechanization of its industrial sector which makes it possible for its labor force to be far more productive than its competition. Donquote Don, The current disparity in industrial productivity can't last. IIRC, the US had 60% of its population working farms until the 20th century. I hazzard to guess that Charis won't reduce that percentage by much until after the Proscriptions have been recinded and the OBS removed. I would further guess that the mainland will approach that percentage much more closely than Charis would wish. Between Charis, Siddermark and Silkiah there are ~250 million people supporting those nations' economies. That leaves 750 million everywhere else. Assuming Charis manages 40% of its population working outside aggriculture and the CoGA nations manage 30%, the EoC has to be 8 times more productive in industrial production to match the CoGA. That's easily done right now, but the CoGA has a steeper learning curve. If the CoGA employs some less efficient steam engines in their industrial production, streamlines their processes and imrpoves productivity 3 fold from their base, Charis has to increase by 3 times along a much flatter improvement curve. At one point the gains in productivity for Charis can't keep pace with those of the CoGA nations. They have to increase their population. So long as Siddermark remains part of their alliance, all is well. Should Siddermark leave for any reason, the Charisian population has to grow much more quickly than their mainland rivals or they will be out produced. Hi Peter, Great post as always. First of all, Siddarmark isn't about to leave the alliance at least for the duration of the war if for no other reason than they are dependent of the Charisian industrial sector for their survival. And I doubt that after what Clyntahn tried to pull, the COGA and the inquisition will be invited back anytime soon. I think my previous post stands up pretty good. I don't remember the figures very well. But think about the agricultural sector, for example. Each Charisian farmer is enormously more productive than his mainland counterpart. All those extra people that the mainlanders need to farm just as well be sitting in the bleachers. Or think about the industrial sector. The Temple Lands are starting to organize their guild workers into teams called circles. An improvement but not enough. All Housmyn has to do to up his production is add another assembly line with powered tools to produce huge results. And the EOCs labor market is far from saturated. Its still got lots of room to grow. The thing hurting the Temple right now is the mentality that all change is against the prescriptions and thus counter to God's will. So they are constantly behind the curve as they imitate what Charis does, being dragged kicking and screaming into change they don't want. As long as that remains true, they will never be able to compete. I suspect that where your assertion about the EOC needing more numbers hold true is in the long term. Imagine the war being over, the power of the COGA broken, the ability of the inquisition to coerce abolished, the proscriptions discredited. Then, and only then, will the mainland economies begin to successfully compete with Charis. Then the assertion that the EOC needs more people may well hold true. By tthe time those things happen, it won't matter. Merlin's goal of getting Safehold on the road to recovering its tech will have been accomplished. That will only be the first step. But you know what they say about the road to Rome. Don Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Resource Limits

by lyonheart » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:09 am

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Hi Don,

Kudos for another excellent post.

Siddarmark isn't leaving the alliance anytime soon, to second your points regarding their dependence on Charis's industrial sector, they can't and survive; since they seemed determined to do just that and have been quite rational so far, I don't see them cutting a deal with whatever is left of the CoGA that undercuts their survival in any way.

Given how tiny the respective workforces are, worrying about manpower allocation is a concern for the next war.

Bear in mind that by then, after Silkiah, Dohlar and the Border States are gone or part of the alliance; plus 20 years of various island refuges, the underground railroad [Buy Sodar!] and CoC propaganda regarding the serfs needing to be freed in particular, the liberating power of tolerance the EoC demonstrates everyday, the CoGA may be the minority even on Haven and Howard!

L

n7axw wrote:
PeterZ wrote:*quote="n7axw"*
The Raven Lands don't have enough people to serve as a significant source of labor for the empire. Nor is their clan structure and culture suitable for that.

The EOC has about 72 million people and its agriculture has developed to the point where they have a fairly substantial work force in its nonagricultural sectors. The big multiplier already developing and which is enabling the EOC to compete with the mainland along side its military tech is the mechanization of its industrial sector which makes it possible for its labor force to be far more productive than its competition.

Don*quote*

Don,

The current disparity in industrial productivity can't last. IIRC, the US had 60% of its population working farms until the 20th century. I hazzard to guess that Charis won't reduce that percentage by much until after the Proscriptions have been recinded and the OBS removed. I would further guess that the mainland will approach that percentage much more closely than Charis would wish.

Between Charis, Siddermark and Silkiah there are ~250 million people supporting those nations' economies. That leaves 750 million everywhere else. Assuming Charis manages 40% of its population working outside aggriculture and the CoGA nations manage 30%, the EoC has to be 8 times more productive in industrial production to match the CoGA. That's easily done right now, but the CoGA has a steeper learning curve. If the CoGA employs some less efficient steam engines in their industrial production, streamlines their processes and imrpoves productivity 3 fold from their base, Charis has to increase by 3 times along a much flatter improvement curve. At one point the gains in productivity for Charis can't keep pace with those of the CoGA nations. They have to increase their population.

So long as Siddermark remains part of their alliance, all is well. Should Siddermark leave for any reason, the Charisian population has to grow much more quickly than their mainland rivals or they will be out produced.

Hi Peter,

Great post as always. First of all, Siddarmark isn't about to leave the alliance at least for the duration of the war if for no other reason than they are dependent of the Charisian industrial sector for their survival. And I doubt that after what Clyntahn tried to pull, the COGA and the inquisition will be invited back anytime soon.

I think my previous post stands up pretty good. I don't remember the figures very well. But think about the agricultural sector, for example. Each Charisian farmer is enormously more productive than his mainland counterpart. All those extra people that the mainlanders need to farm just as well be sitting in the bleachers.

Or think about the industrial sector. The Temple Lands are starting to organize their guild workers into teams called circles. An improvement but not enough. All Housmyn has to do to up his production is add another assembly line with powered tools to produce huge results. And the EOCs labor market is far from saturated. Its still got lots of room to grow.

The thing hurting the Temple right now is the mentality that all change is against the prescriptions and thus counter to God's will. So they are constantly behind the curve as they imitate what Charis does, being dragged kicking and screaming into change they don't want. As long as that remains true, they will never be able to compete.

I suspect that where your assertion about the EOC needing more numbers hold true is in the long term. Imagine the war being over, the power of the COGA broken, the ability of the inquisition to coerce abolished, the proscriptions discredited. Then, and only then, will the mainland economies begin to successfully compete with Charis. Then the assertion that the EOC needs more people may well hold true.

By tthe time those things happen, it won't matter. Merlin's goal of getting Safehold on the road to recovering its tech will have been accomplished. That will only be the first step. But you know what they say about the road to Rome.

Don

Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!

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Re: Resource Limits
by PeterZ » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:43 am
PeterZ Fleet Admiral Posts: 6432 Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm Location: Colorado	Lyonheart and Don, I doubt Siddermark is leaving anytime soon. I simply wish to be thorough. There are many ways to end this story arc and phase of the war. One of them is to have a partial truth emerge. A version of the truth tars Charis as much as Clyntahn and his coterie. This would leave Duchairn is the driver's seat of a CoGA that will need to be thoroughly purged of fanatical inquisitors. Under that scenario, Charis is very much on her own and perhaps even faces internal pressures. The Empire is stressed but perhaps sticks together through trust in their rulers and the knowledge that the mainland will always see them as the people that shattered the Church. Siddermark might be forced to pull back. Their gratitude for Charisian assistance prevents them from fighting directly. In light of that partial truth, they cannot commit to a deeper alliance. Duchairn recignizes this and leaves them alone to rebuild their nation. I am not saying this will happen. Just saying that with Siddermark firmly allied with Charis victory is certain and without her alliance Charis has serious problems. I guess I am also saying this is David Weber we are talking about. He will surprise us. That means the obvious facts we readers have seen all along aren't really what they appear to be. Then the foundations we have relied on to form our speculation crumble like Hamish Alexander's hopes in the Ashes of Victory.
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Re: Resource Limits

by PeterZ » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:43 am

PeterZ
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 6432
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm
Location: Colorado

Lyonheart and Don,

I doubt Siddermark is leaving anytime soon. I simply wish to be thorough. There are many ways to end this story arc and phase of the war. One of them is to have a partial truth emerge. A version of the truth tars Charis as much as Clyntahn and his coterie. This would leave Duchairn is the driver's seat of a CoGA that will need to be thoroughly purged of fanatical inquisitors.

Under that scenario, Charis is very much on her own and perhaps even faces internal pressures. The Empire is stressed but perhaps sticks together through trust in their rulers and the knowledge that the mainland will always see them as the people that shattered the Church.

Siddermark might be forced to pull back. Their gratitude for Charisian assistance prevents them from fighting directly. In light of that partial truth, they cannot commit to a deeper alliance. Duchairn recignizes this and leaves them alone to rebuild their nation.

I am not saying this will happen. Just saying that with Siddermark firmly allied with Charis victory is certain and without her alliance Charis has serious problems. I guess I am also saying this is David Weber we are talking about. He will surprise us. That means the obvious facts we readers have seen all along aren't really what they appear to be. Then the foundations we have relied on to form our speculation crumble like Hamish Alexander's hopes in the Ashes of Victory.

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Re: Resource Limits
by n7axw » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:50 pm
n7axw Fleet Admiral Posts: 5997 Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:54 pm Location: Viborg, SD	PeterZ wrote:Lyonheart and Don, I doubt Siddermark is leaving anytime soon. I simply wish to be thorough. There are many ways to end this story arc and phase of the war. One of them is to have a partial truth emerge. A version of the truth tars Charis as much as Clyntahn and his coterie. This would leave Duchairn is the driver's seat of a CoGA that will need to be thoroughly purged of fanatical inquisitors. Under that scenario, Charis is very much on her own and perhaps even faces internal pressures. The Empire is stressed but perhaps sticks together through trust in their rulers and the knowledge that the mainland will always see them as the people that shattered the Church. Siddermark might be forced to pull back. Their gratitude for Charisian assistance prevents them from fighting directly. In light of that partial truth, they cannot commit to a deeper alliance. Duchairn recignizes this and leaves them alone to rebuild their nation. I am not saying this will happen. Just saying that with Siddermark firmly allied with Charis victory is certain and without her alliance Charis has serious problems. I guess I am also saying this is David Weber we are talking about. He will surprise us. That means the obvious facts we readers have seen all along aren't really what they appear to be. Then the foundations we have relied on to form our speculation crumble like Hamish Alexander's hopes in the Ashes of Victory. Hi Peter, The foundations may crumble, but they are still really all we have to speculate on. My own record in picking up on unexpected twists and turns is exacty 0%. I was caught completely out on Ashes of Victory. There I've admitted it! The arc of the story seems clear though. Charis starts off alone. Then with Merlin's assistance she survives, but still a tiny percentage of the world's population and resources. Then through a combination of persuasion, marriage and conquest, she is strenthened as her percentage of people and resources improves. Now a major mainland nation, Siddarmark is by alliance in her camp. In the meantime, her tech through innovation and Merlin's assistance continues to improve. That is the arc of the story. Will there be twists and turns? Yep. Will I sucessfully pick up on them? Given my percentage, in all likelihood, no (sigh). Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Resource Limits

by n7axw » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:50 pm

n7axw
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 5997
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:54 pm
Location: Viborg, SD

PeterZ wrote:Lyonheart and Don,

I doubt Siddermark is leaving anytime soon. I simply wish to be thorough. There are many ways to end this story arc and phase of the war. One of them is to have a partial truth emerge. A version of the truth tars Charis as much as Clyntahn and his coterie. This would leave Duchairn is the driver's seat of a CoGA that will need to be thoroughly purged of fanatical inquisitors.

Under that scenario, Charis is very much on her own and perhaps even faces internal pressures. The Empire is stressed but perhaps sticks together through trust in their rulers and the knowledge that the mainland will always see them as the people that shattered the Church.

Siddermark might be forced to pull back. Their gratitude for Charisian assistance prevents them from fighting directly. In light of that partial truth, they cannot commit to a deeper alliance. Duchairn recignizes this and leaves them alone to rebuild their nation.

I am not saying this will happen. Just saying that with Siddermark firmly allied with Charis victory is certain and without her alliance Charis has serious problems. I guess I am also saying this is David Weber we are talking about. He will surprise us. That means the obvious facts we readers have seen all along aren't really what they appear to be. Then the foundations we have relied on to form our speculation crumble like Hamish Alexander's hopes in the Ashes of Victory.

Hi Peter,

The foundations may crumble, but they are still really all we have to speculate on. My own record in picking up on unexpected twists and turns is exacty 0%. I was caught completely out on Ashes of Victory. There I've admitted it!

The arc of the story seems clear though. Charis starts off alone. Then with Merlin's assistance she survives, but still a tiny percentage of the world's population and resources. Then through a combination of persuasion, marriage and conquest, she is strenthened as her percentage of people and resources improves. Now a major mainland nation, Siddarmark is by alliance in her camp. In the meantime, her tech through innovation and Merlin's assistance continues to improve.

That is the arc of the story. Will there be twists and turns? Yep. Will I sucessfully pick up on them? Given my percentage, in all likelihood, no (sigh).

Don

When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.

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Re: Resource Limits
by PeterZ » Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:02 am
PeterZ Fleet Admiral Posts: 6432 Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm Location: Colorado	n7axw wrote: Hi Peter, The foundations may crumble, but they are still really all we have to speculate on. My own record in picking up on unexpected twists and turns is exacty 0%. I was caught completely out on Ashes of Victory. There I've admitted it! The arc of the story seems clear though. Charis starts off alone. Then with Merlin's assistance she survives, but still a tiny percentage of the world's population and resources. Then through a combination of persuasion, marriage and conquest, she is strenthened as her percentage of people and resources improves. Now a major mainland nation, Siddarmark is by alliance in her camp. In the meantime, her tech through innovation and Merlin's assistance continues to improve. That is the arc of the story. Will there be twists and turns? Yep. Will I sucessfully pick up on them? Given my percentage, in all likelihood, no (sigh). Don Excellent summation, Don! We do need to add one or two important points. First, Charis' prime enemy is correct in what it accuses Charis of. Second, Charis' enemies have been taught to build their society upon lies. These two points have to be addressed and they can muddy the plot waters pretty thoroughly. I suspect that the story arc so far aschewed these points to address the low hanging plot fruit; the means Charis has to defend itself against the liars. By surviving the liars' aggression Charis highlights the inconsistencies generated by the great lie. That's fine as far as it goes. It just strikes me that assuming that state of affairs will continue is very much like any Elvis Santino threat appraisal. It assumes too much. That the limits in Charisian resources will continue to be overcome through alliances and more rapid productivity increases than its enemies might be assumptions that are insupportable. Good strategists will plan for as many ways as they can to overcome those limits in resources as additional layers. Sort of like Nimue's PICA and Shan-wei's seedlings.
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Re: Resource Limits

by PeterZ » Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:02 am

PeterZ
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 6432
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm
Location: Colorado

n7axw wrote:
Hi Peter,

The foundations may crumble, but they are still really all we have to speculate on. My own record in picking up on unexpected twists and turns is exacty 0%. I was caught completely out on Ashes of Victory. There I've admitted it!

The arc of the story seems clear though. Charis starts off alone. Then with Merlin's assistance she survives, but still a tiny percentage of the world's population and resources. Then through a combination of persuasion, marriage and conquest, she is strenthened as her percentage of people and resources improves. Now a major mainland nation, Siddarmark is by alliance in her camp. In the meantime, her tech through innovation and Merlin's assistance continues to improve.

That is the arc of the story. Will there be twists and turns? Yep. Will I sucessfully pick up on them? Given my percentage, in all likelihood, no (sigh).

Don

Excellent summation, Don! We do need to add one or two important points. First, Charis' prime enemy is correct in what it accuses Charis of. Second, Charis' enemies have been taught to build their society upon lies. These two points have to be addressed and they can muddy the plot waters pretty thoroughly.

I suspect that the story arc so far aschewed these points to address the low hanging plot fruit; the means Charis has to defend itself against the liars. By surviving the liars' aggression Charis highlights the inconsistencies generated by the great lie. That's fine as far as it goes. It just strikes me that assuming that state of affairs will continue is very much like any Elvis Santino threat appraisal. It assumes too much.

That the limits in Charisian resources will continue to be overcome through alliances and more rapid productivity increases than its enemies might be assumptions that are insupportable. Good strategists will plan for as many ways as they can to overcome those limits in resources as additional layers. Sort of like Nimue's PICA and Shan-wei's seedlings.

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