Status of Desnair Spoiler

There is absolutely no reason to invade Desnair. Aside from being bass-ackwards on their own merits, they're the wrong direction.

Choke them off as they currently are, toss in the Gulf of Dohlar, and that's all you have to worry about. If their troops can't get anywhere, it doesn't matter how many of them there are.

I agree Aclone that Desnair is not a top priority

Harchong and the Army of God come first

With Dohlar in a close second place

Still Silkah should be taken and some forces diverted to keep an eye on the Sourthern front.

@ AClone,

Yes there is no military reason to go into Desnair, especially with Harchong's too long a name army so close. However I do not see this Jihad lasting much longer, 1-2 years is my guess as at this point the weapons Charis makes will far will be too decisive to oppose without their own equivalents. At which point they find out the reason Charis bothered making all their rifles out of steel and creating a truly uniform measurement system.... AND that they cannot do the same. First off it would take far too long and secondly to do so would require another massive expenditure, which I'm betting they cannot afford.

So around 2+ years from now Siddarmark will have built up this massive new model army and no real foes that it needs to defend. They DO however have a long grudge against Desnair, a sugarcoating of a reason (gold mines are nice possessions) and a totally valid reason to go in Siddarmark did not after all start the war.

They will just finish it.

Most important is that Desnair had the CoGA bail them out last time they crossed swords, this will definitely not be the case this time. Also keep in mind that technically Silkiah is a Desnair holding. This is what I mean by Desnair being TOTALLY at the mercy of either the CoGA or Siddarmark (part of good guys), what ever they want once the jihad ends from Desnair they can walk in and take.

It is not like their military could stop them now, IMO 2+ years is highly unlikely that they will solve the issues of poor industrial strength, significant economic disruption due to their gold mines, a military too attached to the illusion of cavalry supremacy and a very inefficient social system which actively blocks any change to the status quo.

Right this minute its the CoGA that holds the leash, as the idea of nobility/royalty is confirmed by the CoGA and without it the Desnari ruling class has no legitimacy in the eyes of the faithful. NTM they WILL be afraid that Clyntahn will pull another SoS if he feels justified. No kingdom can ignore that possibility now, after all its precisely this action that makes the fall of the CoGA a certainty.

CJK wrote:@ AClone,


... Also keep in mind that technically Silkiah is a Desnair holding.

That's not my understanding. Silkiah was a Desnair holding up till YOG 869. After the treaty of Silk Town under the auspices of the CoGa in 869 and up till mid 896, Silkiah is for me an independant Duchy, demilitarized and commercially very active with Charis, which would not be the case if it answered to Desnair. It's de facto under the rule of CoGA since spring 896, has Desnairian armies going through it, and is in the process of being "remilitarized" but we have no info on the reactions of its people to that.

However I agree that Silkiah is geographically important and that, after the war, it should probably either be a part of Siddarmark or an independant state "associated" with Siddarmark. Desnair should be left to its internal struggles or as PeterZ wrote to defending itself against South Harchong ambitions.

IN one of the Early books 1 or 2 it was mentioned that Silkiah was an independent state but they DO pay a tithe to Desnair. Get the feeling that the CoGA was playing games in keeping Siddarmark in check, regardless as it is an important location to hold military wise I doubt Siddarmark will miss the chance to reclaim it.

CJK wrote:So around 2+ years from now Siddarmark will have built up this massive new model army and no real foes that it needs to defend. They DO however have a long grudge against Desnair, a sugarcoating of a reason (gold mines are nice possessions) and a totally valid reason to go in Siddarmark did not after all start the war.

Those military units Siddamark has will be needed to invade and occupy the Temple Lands (This also involves going through the densely populated Border States). Unless there's another 2-3m troops laying around they won't have the resources to go off on a military expedition to Desnair which would require pacifying Dolhar in the process. With the resources available they have just enough to occupy he Temple Lands and liberate Silkiah. That's about it.

Remember, Siddamark is a Democracy. The people do have a voice in this matter. After all the suffering they've been through and all the death and carnage they have put up with they people will eventually just want the war to be over. They won't want revenge, they would just want to be secure and at peace. If the Temple Lands are occupied and her allies have capitulated then there is no reason to go off picking a fight when there's no need to. They would just want to worry about rebuilding.

These are the kind of numbers we are talking about.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=2963&start=00

That's a huge population of people to try and control. You will need a lot of resources to pacify the population of the occupied territories of the Border States and the Temple Lands. This isn't Corniside where if you control the capital you control the whole country. You need a lot more than that to get the job done.

RFC once clarified that information. (Pretty sure a copy is on the Bar, if the version here has been time purged).

Going from memory, although Silk Town is a colonial enclave, and the Salthar Canal was made by Shan-Wei, Silkiah was, historically speaking, mostly uninhabited, and the Salthar Canal was a secondary line, a local shortcut at the edge of the canal network, with small settlements feeding it.

Dialect wise, Silkiah is very close to Desnair, culturally it is closer to Siddarmark. The first invasion of Siddarmark by Desnair was because, for some reason, Silkians did a lot more bussiness with Siddarmark, and the Desnari objected.

When the predecessors to the Go4 stepped in, Silkiah was behind Siddarmark's lines (they were in fact nearly to Gulf of Jahras). The tribute that Silkiah pays is mostly in the form of discounts on canal usage fees remitted to the emperor, and is mostly on paper from the Silkian side. (From what it sounds like the Desnari get to use the canal at a very low cost, but they pay a toll to the emperor).

CJK wrote:IN one of the Early books 1 or 2 it was mentioned that Silkiah was an independent state but they DO pay a tithe to Desnair. Get the feeling that the CoGA was playing games in keeping Siddarmark in check, regardless as it is an important location to hold military wise I doubt Siddarmark will miss the chance to reclaim it.

lizon wrote:Those military units Siddamark has will be needed to invade and occupy the Temple Lands (This also involves going through the densely populated Border States). Unless there's another 2-3m troops laying around they won't have the resources to go off on a military expedition to Desnair which would require pacifying Dolhar in the process. With the resources available they have just enough to occupy he Temple Lands and liberate Silkiah. That's about it.

Remember, Siddamark is a Democracy. The people do have a voice in this matter. After all the suffering they've been through and all the death and carnage they have put up with they people will eventually just want the war to be over. They won't want revenge, they would just want to be secure and at peace. If the Temple Lands are occupied and her allies have capitulated then there is no reason to go off picking a fight when there's no need to. They would just want to worry about rebuilding.

These are the kind of numbers we are talking about.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=2963&start=00

That's a huge population of people to try and control. You will need a lot of resources to pacify the population of the occupied territories of the Border States and the Temple Lands. This isn't Corniside where if you control the capital you control the whole country. You need a lot more than that to get the job done.

Agree that the Allies won't invade all of Desnair. I do think that Silkiah and likely the Gulf of Jahras will be annexed before hsotilities cease. I still contend that South Harchong might use their new found indiustrial might (realtive to Desnair) to take big honking pieces of Desnair. If South Harchong denies Desnair access to the Gulf of Dohlar by taking those northern portions of Desnair, they can control whatever trade resumes between Howard and Haven. Sure the ICN can still shut things down. Even if the ICN allows trade to resume, Harchong would control what trade is shipped north through its borders.

No matter how its sliced and diced, Desnair will lose big chunks of territory because they cannot industrialize sufficiently.

[quote="HungryKing"]RFC once clarified that information. (Pretty sure a copy is on the Bar, if the version here has been time purged).

Great info- Thanks

Hi Lizon,

welcome to the forums, please enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the forum.

Kudos for some very excellent points.

So I'm looking forward to more of your comments in the future.

I've suggested for some time that the Desnar North Watch province mountain range bisecting the isthmus provides a ready barrier for a defensible border for the allies, which may include Silkiah, with only ~4 mountain passes besides the few miles of the coasts on the west and east sides, drastically reduces the defensive requirement to perhaps 10% of the narrowest distance or ~25 miles or so.

Granted the next threat to the allies is the MHoGatA, but I doubt its going to get all the rifles suggested in LaMA, since the ICN will be blockading South Harchong among other things, and I strongly doubt Dohlar and Silkiah will send their March and later lots when faced with invasion soon.

I assume the 506,000 rifles delivered by the end of February figure is firm, given those are probably within 1200 miles of delivery via canal, ie somewhere on Haven, but its still about a 20% reduction, nothing to sneeze at.

But 204,000 of those rifles were made in the Border States, over the last two years (perhaps 600 days?) though MTaT indicated they didn't have any modern rifles or weapons, for and average of 340 combined rifles per day but probably made from ~30-40 gun-shops in the nine nations, making them rather limited in sharing ammunition etc, but a surprise point being these nations will be disarmed when the RSA and ICA come calling soon after they deal with the MHoGatA, and thus very willing to accept the allied terms despite all the screaming from the temple...

BTW, I won't be too surprised if the temple land 'caps' don't fit in the Dohlaran rifles etc, since the lack of uniform measurement has to bite the Go4 armies sooner or later.

Thirsk's Dohlaran navy may be the best left to the Go4, but given the flight 2 river class ironclads that have been commissioning since October (~27), that presumably can go through the Salthar Silk Town Canal, not for much longer, especially given snippet #2.

Who knows, Thirsk might be ordered out to engage Sharpfield with his whole fleet, despite his probable arguing for a protective reserve etc, only to have the ironclads steam up in his absence...

I think Corisande's military contribution has been overstated repeatedly, and despite ~15 million in population it will take some time for its weight to be felt, even if most of the current 'Regent's police force' (~30K) were added to the remaining garrison of approximately 30K or less, who have to be all retrained with modern weapons NTM tactics which will take month's if not almost another year.

The best that can be said for the Corisande combat veterans, given their experience is so obsolete now, is that they've already seen the elephant and could be good material for NCO's for the new recruits.

Sharpfield only took 8,000 marines to garrison Claw Island, which probably isn't enough by themselves to invade or take Port Salthar without other supporting troops.

However we have those 50,000+ ICA troops that left Port Royal at the end of September (chapter X) for the republic which have probably already arrived near the end of November despite no textev yet.

I believe they were initially sent to Eralth Bay, about the same distance as SC, where they'd be available for Silkiah (about 1800 miles further west) and the Gulf of Jahras, the western canal locks being roughly due north of the northwest corner of the gulf, around ~182 miles according to the MTaT online map, which might be the route of the main if not only semaphore to Howard, along the canal from the locks west to Port Salthar then up the coast including the coast of the Duchy of Salthar as the shortest route from the temple, an adjacent high road being part of the communications package.

All in all, a very enticing strategic target.

Since there are quite a number of Desnari cavalry remount depots throughout the province, capturing as many horses might be a useful cover for inserting a force of initially scout snipers etc to take the western locks, while others seize the eastern using various clever subterfuges.

But the north-south mountain ridge line would eventually offer Silkiah a defensible border besides the extra territory (~88,000 square miles) as an added incentive to join the allies.

L

lizon wrote:What you don't want to do from a military standpoint is bite off more than you can chew. Furthermore it's typically wise to not go off attacking somebody who is weak and can't fight back much when you have other more pressing issues to contend with first.

The Army needs to mop up Church forces in the South Marsh Lands and focus their attention with church forces in the north and prepare to handle the Harchong Army that is being trained in the Border States. It's worth noting that rifles that were supposed to be sent to Denisar and Dolhar were re-directed to the Harchong.

There are two primary threats to the Allied Powers. The Harchong Army and the Desinar Navy. That's it. Let the army handle the Harchong, use the ICN and the King Harolds to take out the Desinar Navy and open the path to an invasion of Silkiah form the west and the east.

The inclusion of Corniside in the EoC cannot be overstated. That will have a major impact in troop deployments. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the garrison forces have been moved off of Corniside and are on their way to help support fleet operations in the Gulf of Dohlar. The previous garrison was around 40k strong filled with veteran forces. I'm guessing that the fleet will have about 50-75k troops available for a western invasion of Silkah to cut off the Canal routes. We already know there are ICN units with Marine detachments in the Gulf of Jahras that are wrecking havok. I say add another 20-30k to their marine detachment and try to capture Khreos (I think that's spelled right) and move to cut off Silkiah. This should be enough to keep both Dolhar and Desinar tied up while the Army handles the Harchong.

Once the Harchong are out of the way can you even begin considering invading Temple loyal countries en masse.