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Siddermarkian and Safehold development

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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Mar 13, 2014 3:00 am

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Hi PeterZ,

Thoughts regarding the House of Ahrmahk becoming the central bank of Safehold?

Right on!

Given Cayleb's future financial resources [100 billion marks per annum for 100 years just for the first lode] easily replacing both the temple and SC as the banker with the most cash.

So instead of Zhasyn Gorjah (the son of the King of Tarot), will Alahnah marry the heir of Qwentyn? :D

Howsmyn is already set to make a major investment in Qwentyn, and the bonds between the two may be deliberately forged so strong as to make a future union inevitable to both people's in the fullness of time.

Will we see the first Siddarmarkian members of the inner circle in HFQ?

The advantage of all the potential foreign investment is that it isn't inflating at home, but encouraging trade with Charis, where else are the foreign countries going to get 'their' money's worth?

100 billion marks divided by the ~72 million people in the empire at the moment is ~1389 marks EACH annually, or better than 4&1/2 marks per day PER PERSON; which is a lot more than most heads of households earn (ie 1-2@), which is why funding Siddarmark's recovery program will be wise foreign and financial policy.

That much power in anyone's hands could be very dangerous, but thanks to the inner circle, Nahrmahn, OWL, NTM a couple of PICA's, there will be restraints on all the future generations of the House of Ahrmahk's rulers for at least centuries, incidentally making their name a byword for honesty, integrity, probity, and wisdom despite potential youth. 8-)

Dealing with real honest politicians especially a rather political family ought to be a fascinating experience for the rest of humanity in the centuries to come. :lol:

L


PeterZ wrote:The decision was made to help Siddermark develop thier own industry themselves rather than manufacturing the components in Charis and shipping them in. Yes, there will be some key tools Charis will supply, but the primary driver will be Siddermark.

That suggests Siddermark will have to progress in several stages. First is to realign the workforce to think in terms of processes that different people can participate in and not in terms of skills that master craftmen have collected. Second, set and enforce standard weights and measures. Third, add labor saving power tools to each stage in the process. Fourth, evaluate the current process and make alternations as needed.

What occurs to me is when Charis was beginning the process, it was much welthier than Siddermark is now. The changes in processes in a very short period of time means heavy retooling. The cost of retooling will be spread over a much shorter time and fewer items produced. This makes the cost of production very expensive as Siddermark climbs the industrial learning curve.

That suggests that Cayleb will have to either help Siddermark with additional investments to fund this learning process or offer short cuts for Siddermark's development of manufacturing processes. The former is expensive but will make sure the lessons of industrial organization is well learned. The latter is cheaper but would likely handicap Siddermark's industry in their ability to understand just why they do what they do. I am certain Cayleb will make the investment in Siddermark's learning and development. I doubt that Howsmyn can do it by himself.

All in all it appears that the House of Ahrmahk is set to become the Central Bank of Safehold. They will be lenders and investors to replace the CoGA. I wonder if Cayleb will offer loans rebuild war torn countries? I wonder if he will also use those loans to guide a nation's investment in infrastructure? I foresee the Marshall Plan on steriods.

How far off base am I?
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by jgnfld   » Thu Mar 13, 2014 4:22 am

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I'm still confused as to what actual good silver does Charis. Let's say England had found that, oh, the Isle of Mann was absolutely lousy with silver in the mercantile era. How would this have helped them? Seems to me it would have more probably hurt their development technologically and culturally rather than helped.

All the silver in South America certainly did precious little for Spain's eventual technical/cultural development, for example.

The only thing the rest of the world has right now they can "buy" with all that silver is raw material and raw untrained labor/mercenaries as I see it. And these are limited by what the populations of the rest of the world can support with food and other living essentials. That would certainly seem to me to greatly devalue its worth.


lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Thoughts regarding the House of Ahrmahk becoming the central bank of Safehold?

Right on!

Given Cayleb's future financial resources [100 billion marks per annum for 100 years just for the first lode] easily replacing both the temple and SC as the banker with the most cash.

...
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:12 am

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Charisian productivity is creating wealth through all the different things they produce. The price of those things are falling because the number of things to be bought grow greater in proportion to the amount of currency used to buy them. It takes less silver to buy a yard of cloth than it used to.

The trouble is that the amount of currency hasn't increased much. That means there are fewer silver/gold coins that the poorer folk can use to buy the increasingly cheap products and services. By increasing the amount of silver and gold coins in circulation, more people will be able to participate in buying goods and services. As Safehold's productivity grows, there will be more and more to buy. Unless the amount of currency also increases, the ability for the poor to engage in that activity will be very limited.

By definition this process means the value of gold and silver increases relative to goods and services. It takes less gold and silver to buy a given product or service. If the ampunt of currency increases much faster than the production of goods and services, then yes, the value of the currency would decrease relative to goods and services. It would take more silver/gold to buy a given product or service.

Silverlode's gold and silver is indeed a two-edged sword. In the hands of venal men, it could turn dynamic Charis into indolent Desnair.



jgnfld wrote:I'm still confused as to what actual good silver does Charis. Let's say England had found that, oh, the Isle of Mann was absolutely lousy with silver in the mercantile era. How would this have helped them? Seems to me it would have more probably hurt their development technologically and culturally rather than helped.

All the silver in South America certainly did precious little for Spain's eventual technical/cultural development, for example.

The only thing the rest of the world has right now they can "buy" with all that silver is raw material and raw untrained labor/mercenaries as I see it. And these are limited by what the populations of the rest of the world can support with food and other living essentials. That would certainly seem to me to greatly devalue its worth.


lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Thoughts regarding the House of Ahrmahk becoming the central bank of Safehold?

Right on!

Given Cayleb's future financial resources [100 billion marks per annum for 100 years just for the first lode] easily replacing both the temple and SC as the banker with the most cash.

...
Top
Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by jgnfld   » Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:16 am

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PeterZ wrote:Charisian productivity is creating wealth through all the different things they produce. The price of those things are falling because the number of things to be bought grow greater in proportion to the amount of currency used to buy them. It takes less silver to buy a yard of cloth than it used to...


I'm fine with that, I just don't see how the silver in Charis actually helps unleash that productivity into the rest of the world. If the silver were in, say, Siddarmark, that would might seem to be a different story at least for buying Charisan expertise from Charis.

Again, could you explain how England suddenly finding tons of silver in England--especially assuming that England was the only developed nation of the time--would have helped develop its industrial strength? I just don't see it.
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:32 am

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Loans, pure and simple. Much of Siddermark's wealth was destroyed in the Sword of Schueler. What does Siddermark use to fund rebuilding? They have to borrow funds. Charisian silver can be lent to them to rebuild. Trouble is that most of Charisian capital has been invested in building Charisian production. There is very little of it sitting around not being used to either build factories or buy supplies to make weapons, ships, tools etc. Directing current gold and silver to Siddermark means there is less available to increase or supply Charisian manufacturing.

Now Charis has this massive influx of silver and gold. Cayleb is borrowing against the future gold and silver production by issuing bonds that can be redeemed for gold or silver in the future. Not all of this new money is being used to either build or supply Charisian manufacturing. Any excess gold can be lent to Siddermark or Dohlar or Desnair or even the CoGA. Once the jihad is over every other nation will either have its infrastructure destroyed or is coffers emptied by the jihad.....except Charis.

In the end the amount of economic expansion depends on productivity increases and sufficient currency to fuel more people engaged in economic activity as the prices of goods and services drop in response to that increased production and productivity.

jgnfld wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Charisian productivity is creating wealth through all the different things they produce. The price of those things are falling because the number of things to be bought grow greater in proportion to the amount of currency used to buy them. It takes less silver to buy a yard of cloth than it used to...


I'm fine with that, I just don't see how the silver in Charis actually helps unleash that productivity into the rest of the world. If the silver were in Siddarmark, that would might seem to be a different story.

Again, could you explain how England suddenly finding tons of silver in England would have helped develop its industrial strength? I just don't see it.
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by MWadwell   » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:03 am

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PeterZ wrote:(SNIP)

Once the jihad is over every other nation will either have its infrastructure destroyed or is coffers emptied by the jihad.....except Charis.

(SNIP)


This is actually a very important point.

After WW1 and WW2, America was able to build on the industrial expansion that occurred during the war, for massive post-war economic growth.

Britain on the other hand, was bankrupt after WW2 and as a result, economically stagnated (even after WW2).


So, I would expect that the same effect in Charis's favour - with a massive economic improvement....
.

Later,
Matt
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by lyonheart   » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:35 am

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Hi Mwadwell,

It's far more complicated than that.

Please read Corelli Barnett's 4 book set of the Pride and the Fall series, which goes into some detail how England the world's first industrial power was already noticeably declining to wise observers in the 19th century due to educational and scientific ignorance that was never really addressed until after WWII.

Actually, Britain was bankrupt after WWI, the financial center of the world had shifted to the US, ie New York City, and one reason it and France attempted to make Germany pay for the war, which was silly in several ways.

All the loans it took out to keep the war going came back
to haunt it and the rest of Europe, only Finland paying off its debt to the USA, which rather affected American attitudes towards helping Europe or the rest of the world in the 1920's and '30's.

"They hired the money, didn't they?" seemed to sum up the American attitude for most of the '20's.

L


MWadwell wrote:
PeterZ wrote:(SNIP)

Once the jihad is over every other nation will either have its infrastructure destroyed or is coffers emptied by the jihad.....except Charis.

(SNIP)


This is actually a very important point.

After WW1 and WW2, America was able to build on the industrial expansion that occurred during the war, for massive post-war economic growth.

Britain on the other hand, was bankrupt after WW2 and as a result, economically stagnated (even after WW2).


So, I would expect that the same effect in Charis's favour - with a massive economic improvement....
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Mar 14, 2014 6:28 pm

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jgnfld wrote:
I'm fine with that, I just don't see how the silver in Charis actually helps unleash that productivity into the rest of the world. If the silver were in, say, Siddarmark, that would might seem to be a different story at least for buying Charisan expertise from Charis.

Again, could you explain how England suddenly finding tons of silver in England--especially assuming that England was the only developed nation of the time--would have helped develop its industrial strength? I just don't see it.


I realized that i did not specifically address your question. Sorry, let me try now.

The silver only facilitates economic activity as a means of storing and transfering wealth. If we are discussing England of the Industrial Revolution, the new influx of silver means that more people in England will have access to the silver. This will be true because the value of silver relative to the available goods and services will be worth less. Meaning it requires more silver to buy a good or service. As silver becomes worth less, the amount of silver available at the lower levels of the economy will have greater access to silver because it is not so dear as it once was. This process will occur whether production increases or not.

Now, if production should increase in company to the increased amount of silver, silver becomes more available AND prices remain stagnant or fall. Prices will fall if production increases at a much greater pace than the quantity of silver in the economy. As more people participate in the economy the velocity of the silver changing hands and flowing in the economy speeds up.

The silver by itself does not do anything for economic expansion. In that your instinct was right. The increased silver does however, increase the ability of a greater number of people to participate in the economy.

Does that answer your question, jgnfld?
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:13 am

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Hi PeterZ,

I've posted before on how Maikel might use the CoC's tithes to influence the economy, which might further moderate some of the potential abuses of industrialization that RFC has already addressed.

Given that the CoC will get 20% of the top, I expect hospitals, schools and poor housing will be among the projects that will be encouraged by the new revenue.

My previous proposals have suggested the unspent CoC funds could be invested in the best banks at interest rates that could be used regulate the economy indirectly, without direct government action, though Underhill would have been involved.

I expect once the revenue does start to pour in, Underhill will start to remove the war taxes he began to impose back in BSRA (wharf and warehouse taxes etc), allowing people to spend more of their money their way, expanding the non-war economy, definitely a good thing.

L


PeterZ wrote:
jgnfld wrote:
I'm fine with that, I just don't see how the silver in Charis actually helps unleash that productivity into the rest of the world. If the silver were in, say, Siddarmark, that would might seem to be a different story at least for buying Charisan expertise from Charis.

Again, could you explain how England suddenly finding tons of silver in England--especially assuming that England was the only developed nation of the time--would have helped develop its industrial strength? I just don't see it.


I realized that i did not specifically address your question. Sorry, let me try now.

The silver only facilitates economic activity as a means of storing and transfering wealth. If we are discussing England of the Industrial Revolution, the new influx of silver means that more people in England will have access to the silver. This will be true because the value of silver relative to the available goods and services will be worth less. Meaning it requires more silver to buy a good or service. As silver becomes worth less, the amount of silver available at the lower levels of the economy will have greater access to silver because it is not so dear as it once was. This process will occur whether production increases or not.

Now, if production should increase in company to the increased amount of silver, silver becomes more available AND prices remain stagnant or fall. Prices will fall if production increases at a much greater pace than the quantity of silver in the economy. As more people participate in the economy the velocity of the silver changing hands and flowing in the economy speeds up.

The silver by itself does not do anything for economic expansion. In that your instinct was right. The increased silver does however, increase the ability of a greater number of people to participate in the economy.

Does that answer your question, jgnfld?
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Siddermarkian and Safehold development
Post by jgnfld   » Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:28 am

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All these ideas make some sense to me (e.g., loans for the future, velocity, and infrastructure).

What I was/am getting at is that for the short term and probably medium term Charis, as the only really advanced power which also has all the raw resources it needs as well has little need for a sudden influx of an intl medium of exchange. In that specific situation the extra silver suddenly coming into their hands seems much less valuable.

Now if they needed iron, or some such, from someone willing to sell, that would be a different matter. But they do not. Neither is there any labor needed from other countries except perhaps a need for mercenaries/ships which they cannot buy as they are unobtainable given the jihad. I mean it's not like they are exactly buying Siddarmark's support in exchange for anything other than its sheer survival. In the short to medium term, that is.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

I've posted before on how Maikel might use the CoC's tithes to influence the economy, which might further moderate some of the potential abuses of industrialization that RFC has already addressed.

Given that the CoC will get 20% of the top, I expect hospitals, schools and poor housing will be among the projects that will be encouraged by the new revenue.

My previous proposals have suggested the unspent CoC funds could be invested in the best banks at interest rates that could be used regulate the economy indirectly, without direct government action, though Underhill would have been involved.

I expect once the revenue does start to pour in, Underhill will start to remove the war taxes he began to impose back in BSRA (wharf and warehouse taxes etc), allowing people to spend more of their money their way, expanding the non-war economy, definitely a good thing.

L


PeterZ wrote:...

I realized that i did not specifically address your question. Sorry, let me try now.

The silver only facilitates economic activity as a means of storing and transfering wealth. If we are discussing England of the Industrial Revolution, the new influx of silver means that more people in England will have access to the silver. This will be true because the value of silver relative to the available goods and services will be worth less. Meaning it requires more silver to buy a good or service. As silver becomes worth less, the amount of silver available at the lower levels of the economy will have greater access to silver because it is not so dear as it once was. This process will occur whether production increases or not.

Now, if production should increase in company to the increased amount of silver, silver becomes more available AND prices remain stagnant or fall. Prices will fall if production increases at a much greater pace than the quantity of silver in the economy. As more people participate in the economy the velocity of the silver changing hands and flowing in the economy speeds up.

The silver by itself does not do anything for economic expansion. In that your instinct was right. The increased silver does however, increase the ability of a greater number of people to participate in the economy.

Does that answer your question, jgnfld?
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