Pre-dreadnoughts and the Dreadnought Race

PeterZ wrote:Dohlar isn't very concerned about defending against Charisian DNs. They are very concerned about defending against ANYONE ELSE's armoured cruisers. Their R&D is based on using whatever Chairs can share with them to build their own armoured cruisers. Once Dohlar achieves that step, they can start towards matching Charis' tech.

The DN race doesn't involve the Charisians, it involves EVERYONE ELSE.

I concur. Dohlor has no desire to or expectation of having to fight Charis.

But the same question still applies - "Who is this everyone else of whom you speak?"

The current candidates are Desnair and the Harchong Empire, and both of those are a good distance from being able to build anything Charis or Dohlar would see as a threat. (And once either do, you may assume Charis will have an interest in keeping them pruned back and not bothering Dohlar.)

Dohlar recognizes it needs the industrial capacity, period. Lots of things need plentiful supplies of high quality steel to build that aren't warships. I'm sure Dohlar will be pleased when it can design, build, and commission the first equivalent of Charis's Falcon class cruiser, let alone anything like a King Harhald. And when they do, the pleasure is likely to be in the ability to do it, with no present apprehension it might need to be deployed in combat.
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Dennis

Two other places to keep in mind:

1) Once Siddarmark settles down (or, at least, imposes fascist discipline and order), look to see them start building warships. They have all the markings of a nation that will focus on big business, whether in banking, agriculture, or manufacturing. The steel industry will see the building of a navy as a fantastic fallback to railroad construction.

2) The Temple Lands also is likely to be focused on building a navy. Their success in railroad construction (second only to Charis I believe), along with their willingness to import expertise and learn for themselves will lead to them branching out into naval capability. This is especially true if Eastern Harchong remains closely allied with the Temple and provides bases on the Gulf.

This brings me to my third point: While currently Dohlar and Charis (and the Temple) are all on friendly terms, nothing says that has to remain. Especially with the Temple. It is quite possible that, with further turnover among the vicarate and a resurgence of the conservative faction, you could begin to see fissures emerge. This doesn't have to fall into a second jihad: It could take the shape of a rebuilt Eastern Harchong, allied with the Border States and Temple Lands (but with the Temple remaining neutral) taking issue with Dohlar based on purely economic issues.

DMcCunney wrote:I concur. Dohlor has no desire to or expectation of having to fight Charis.

It may not have a desire, but it must have expectations. Unless the Charisian presence would be removed from the Gulf of Dohlar, the Charisian navy would constantly be an intimidating presence, threatening the Dohlar national security. It's the matter of basic geopolitic: Gulf is vital for Kingdom safety. Unless Dohlar is able to dominate the Gulf, its ability to conduct independent politics would always be questioned.

Dilandu wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:I concur. Dohlor has no desire to or expectation of having to fight Charis.

It may not have a desire, but it must have expectations. Unless the Charisian presence would be removed from the Gulf of Dohlar, the Charisian navy would constantly be an intimidating presence, threatening the Dohlar national security. It's the matter of basic geopolitic: Gulf is vital for Kingdom safety. Unless Dohlar is able to dominate the Gulf, its ability to conduct independent politics would always be questioned.

You keep harping on this. The 3 Harchong states, when they build navies, also could threaten Dohlar national security. They, as well as the Desnarian Empire and the Siddarmark Republic are a lot closer to Dohlar than Charis.

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:
You keep harping on this. The 3 Harchong states, when they build navies, also could threaten Dohlar national security. They, as well as the Desnarian Empire and the Siddarmark Republic are a lot closer to Dohlar than Charis.

I keep applying common sense and geopolitical logic against the idea of "the are so nice guys, they MUST get together!" Currently, neither of Harchong states are of any problem for Dohlar in naval therms. And most likely would not be. Deshnari and Siddarmkrk are NOT Dolhar navy responsibility. Therefore its logical, that the main opponent of Dohlar navy would be Charis, simply because the navy need to justify its existence somehow. Look at history examples, after all!

Let's consider the mainland's geopolitics from Dohlar's perspective.

They are a densely populated country and much of it is largely flat plains. Their Eastern border is mountainous, but likely not very high mountains. Looking at the geology around Dohlar, it appears that the area surrounding the Gulf of Dohlar is the flat rim of the Gulf of Dohlar basin. The gulf itself is according to text pretty shallow. That flat area suggests that Dohlar has a limited supply of minerals like metals, coal and oil. Expanding their production capacity means they need access to those resources.

Dohlar has two options in securing those resources; 1) bind themselves to the Charisian sphere and buy all the output the United Provinces can produce or, 2) incorporate areas that have the resources into Dohlar. There are upsides and downsides to doing either.

Let's consider the second option first. We know that the Thesmar and Glacierheart provinces of Siddermark are not pleased with how the national government is changing. We also know that those provinces have the resources and the transportation infrastructure to deliver those resources to Dohlar. If Thesmar, Glacierheart and Shiloh revolt, Dohlar would be sorely tempted to help them out to secure those resources. Incorporating those provinces into a Dohlaran Empire or Dohlaran Confederacy would make that new entity en par with the United Provinces in both resources and population. That potential production capacity should scare the crap out of every other nation on the mainland.

The first option is much more straight forward. Dohlar leaves Siddermark alone to settle their internal disputes. The problem is that should civil war break out in Siddermark, there will be huge flows of refugees swarming over the border. That will cause problems by itself, but can be managed without entering the conflict. The downside is that Dohlar will always be subject to the political goals of a separate nation, the United Provinces. It also makes securing the Gulf of Dohlar by building their navy much more important for Dohlar's survival.

My gut tells me that Dohlar will participate in the Siddermarkian Civil War if Glacierheart and Thesmar request their help. That means they will need to build up their navy enough to counter South Harchong and Desnair from interrupting their supply lines into Boisseau. They will also need to produce enough weapons for their army and to supply Siddermarkian revolutionaries.

Trying to build a navy to defeat ICN DNs is simply so far down the list of national goals as to be pipe dreams for the immediate future.