When the Reveal happens...

Observations that were done, historically, without telescopes at all: Tycho Brahe died almost a decade before Galileo built his first instrument, but it was his observations that finally put the Ptolemaic model to bed.

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:

thanatos wrote:Now that you mention it, I too remember this passage. If that is the case, if in fact the Holy Writ makes such a clearly false statement that can be tested (and falsified) with a powerful telescope, then that becomes a scientific crowbar with which the Royal Collage can pry the Writ open with. I think RFC will correct this mistake however, just as he corrected the assertion that only the Book of Chihiro was added to the Writ following the War Against the Fallen. (snip)

It doesn't take a powerful telescope; it takes years of accurate observations and careful calculations. Not easy to do with Roman numerals and inconsistent inches.

Louis R wrote:Observations that were done, historically, without telescopes at all: Tycho Brahe died almost a decade before Galileo built his first instrument, but it was his observations that finally put the Ptolemaic model to bed.

IIRC, the Writ included a time table of where objects would be and when. Which of course would be perfectly accurate.

Of course, after a thousand years, the time table for all marked events would probably have run out. But the original Safeholdians probably didn't have the means to calculate ptolemaic epicycles anyway, so it'd be kinda hard to disprove.

If someone came up with new ptolemaic calculations NOW and those calculations proved wrong, that just means the calculations are flawed, not the Writ.

If NO ONE can come up with a ptolemaic model that fits the observed data (or even the time table in the Writ), then that's just proof of God's and the Archangel's superiority over mere mortals. After all, Safehold's theology subscribes to an interventionist God who actively intervenes in the world, not a clockmaker God who lets the universe do whatever without supervision.

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:
<discussion of Ptolemaic system>
It doesn't take a powerful telescope; it takes years of accurate observations and careful calculations. Not easy to do with Roman numerals and inconsistent inches.

For the most part, yes, but there *is* one observation that can be made with a powerful enough telescope that obviously contradicts the Ptolemaic system without the need for complex math - the phases of inner planets (that is, planets closer to the star than the inhabited one).

In the Ptolemaic system all objects orbit the Earth using epicycles to explain retrograde motion, with varying degrees of sophistication in terms of exact orbit/epicycle arrangements to more closely match observations. The centers of epicycles move around the Earth in their orbits, and the planets themselves move around the epicycles.

In particular, inner planets always remain near the Sun in the sky as viewed from the Earth. Thus, in the Ptolemaic system, the centers of the epicycles of these planets move around the inhabited planet at the same speed as the Sun does, keeping them lined up with the Sun in the sky in order to match observations.

However, this means that, in the Ptolemaic system, said inner planet will always be *in between* the Earth and the Sun. Meanwhile, in a heliocentric system, an inner planet that orbits the Sun rather than orbiting on an epicycle will be able to pass *both* in between the Earth and the Sun as well as passing on the far side of the Sun from the Earth. And it turns out that these two scenarios predict that the inner planet will show a different set of phases from the point of view of the Earth.

These are visualizations of both scenarios that I worked up for a class I taught. In both cases the viewpoint is from behind the Earth looking 'over its shoulder' towards the Sun and an interior planet (in this case Venus), and each diagram shows the phases of the inner planet that model predicts:

Visualization 1
Visualization 2

In the first visualization, Venus orbits on its epicycle between the Earth and Sun, and the center of the epicycle and the Sun both orbit around the Earth at the same speed so that they remain in sync. In this scenario we can see that, since Venus is always in between the Sun and the Earth, an observer on Earth will always see Venus in a crescent or new phase.

In the second visualization, Venus and the Earth both orbit the sun. In this case, Venus is sometimes in between the Sun and the Earth and sometimes on the opposite side of the Sun from the Earth, and so we can see that an observer on Earth can see Venus in all phases from full to new.

(A similar effect is observed if you place the inner planet on the far side of the Sun in the Ptolemaic system instead of on the near side - in this case, the inner planet shows only gibbous and full phases instead of showing only crescent and new phases.)

All of that was framed in terms of the Earth and Venus, but the same will of course apply to Safehold and any interior planets in its system. Now, we don't know for sure if Safehold's solar system *has* any significant inner planets, but the general picture emerging seems to be that most stable orbital slots will get *something* orbiting in them as a system forms. So if the inner system remained undisturbed enough by the jovian planets during the formation for Safehold to survive intact, it would not be surprising at all for there to also be other terrestrial planets, and if Safehold is far away enough from its star to be in the habitable zone than the chances of at least one of those planets be orbiting closer than it are good. So, while obviously we can't say for sure that there should be inner planets in the system the odds seem good to me.

Thus, once a powerful enough telescope has been developed, observing the phases of those inner planets should be one way to provide observations that contradict the predictions of the Writ's Ptolemaic system.

Anybody remember the spectral classification assigned to Kau Zhi? With an estimate of the mass we can get a rough orbital radius.

Going from memory [G7V] I'm getting ~0.9au, which would leave room for 2 stable orbits inside it, maybe 3 if one is very low. [Although a planet in such an orbit wouldn't be relevant for this discussion, since it would rarely be far enough from the primary to be visible.]

MuonNeutrino wrote:

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:
<discussion of Ptolemaic system>
It doesn't take a powerful telescope; it takes years of accurate observations and careful calculations. Not easy to do with Roman numerals and inconsistent inches.

For the most part, yes, but there *is* one observation that can be made with a powerful enough telescope that obviously contradicts the Ptolemaic system without the need for complex math - the phases of inner planets (that is, planets closer to the star than the inhabited one).

In the Ptolemaic system all objects orbit the Earth using epicycles to explain retrograde motion, with varying degrees of sophistication in terms of exact orbit/epicycle arrangements to more closely match observations. The centers of epicycles move around the Earth in their orbits, and the planets themselves move around the epicycles.

In particular, inner planets always remain near the Sun in the sky as viewed from the Earth. Thus, in the Ptolemaic system, the centers of the epicycles of these planets move around the inhabited planet at the same speed as the Sun does, keeping them lined up with the Sun in the sky in order to match observations.

However, this means that, in the Ptolemaic system, said inner planet will always be *in between* the Earth and the Sun. Meanwhile, in a heliocentric system, an inner planet that orbits the Sun rather than orbiting on an epicycle will be able to pass *both* in between the Earth and the Sun as well as passing on the far side of the Sun from the Earth. And it turns out that these two scenarios predict that the inner planet will show a different set of phases from the point of view of the Earth.

These are visualizations of both scenarios that I worked up for a class I taught. In both cases the viewpoint is from behind the Earth looking 'over its shoulder' towards the Sun and an interior planet (in this case Venus), and each diagram shows the phases of the inner planet that model predicts:

Visualization 1
Visualization 2

In the first visualization, Venus orbits on its epicycle between the Earth and Sun, and the center of the epicycle and the Sun both orbit around the Earth at the same speed so that they remain in sync. In this scenario we can see that, since Venus is always in between the Sun and the Earth, an observer on Earth will always see Venus in a crescent or new phase.

In the second visualization, Venus and the Earth both orbit the sun. In this case, Venus is sometimes in between the Sun and the Earth and sometimes on the opposite side of the Sun from the Earth, and so we can see that an observer on Earth can see Venus in all phases from full to new.

(A similar effect is observed if you place the inner planet on the far side of the Sun in the Ptolemaic system instead of on the near side - in this case, the inner planet shows only gibbous and full phases instead of showing only crescent and new phases.)

All of that was framed in terms of the Earth and Venus, but the same will of course apply to Safehold and any interior planets in its system. Now, we don't know for sure if Safehold's solar system *has* any significant inner planets, but the general picture emerging seems to be that most stable orbital slots will get *something* orbiting in them as a system forms. So if the inner system remained undisturbed enough by the jovian planets during the formation for Safehold to survive intact, it would not be surprising at all for there to also be other terrestrial planets, and if Safehold is far away enough from its star to be in the habitable zone than the chances of at least one of those planets be orbiting closer than it are good. So, while obviously we can't say for sure that there should be inner planets in the system the odds seem good to me.

Thus, once a powerful enough telescope has been developed, observing the phases of those inner planets should be one way to provide observations that contradict the predictions of the Writ's Ptolemaic system.

thanatos wrote:First of all, RFC has already established that the Safeholdian belief system covers things like microbiology (germs are really tiny demons left behind from Shan-wei’s rebellion). Simply looking into a microscope is insufficient to prove the Writ wrong. The same is true for astronomy as well. All the things that poked holes in the Catholic Church’s view of the universe five or six centuries ago - a view that stemmed from ignorance, guesswork, mythologizing and the absence of adequate scientific tools - cannot exist on Safehold, since the Holy Writ spoon fed the population with perfectly accurate explanations for the way the natural world works. No Safeholdian believes that Safehold is the center of the universe because the Archangels told them it orbits the sun as other planetary bodies do in the system. No Safeholdian is unaware of the causes of disease because the Archangels told of ways to combat them. No - a scientific attack on the Writ’s credibility or accuracy will not suffice. Moreover, the Proscriptions of Jwo-Jeng establish that certain types of knowledge are reserved for the Archangels and God alone and that mankind must not explore them (and doing so is sinful).

I’m not looking to prove the Writ “wrong.” Nor am I proposing a “scientific attack” on the Writ. Instead, I’m suggesting that certain actions can be taken to familiarize people with more secular reasoning while slowly chipping away at some of the mysticism wrapped up in the Writ. Emphasizing a germ theory of disease doesn’t mean rejecting the idea of “little demons” running amok and forcing a theological confrontation; it does, however, give you a means of allowing familiarity to breed contempt and provide some small grounds for supporting the Reveal in the future.

It also opens the door for vaccines with a bit of hand-wringing and a *very* creative attestation. Eventually, the idea that you can permanently keep germs/demons from making you sick contradicts the idea of sickness-as-sin. Plus, Pasquale and Jwo-Jeng couldn’t have banned vaccines without admitting that you can acquire immunity to a disease.

As for the Proscriptions, I’m not too concerned about them in this context. They limit certain areas of knowledge, but they had to be careful to avoid describing them in too much detail and giving would-be heretics a roadmap. And the Royal College got around them by focusing on exploring the boundaries of permitted knowledge. Microbiology, vaccines, and similar efforts wouldn’t have to come into conflict because they’re more of the same for the College.

In a sense, it’s not too different from Charis’s industrialization plans. They’re avoiding actual conflict with the Writ, but still subtly sabotaging it in a way that will help tilt the playing field a bit when people start to think about the Reveal after the initial revulsion. The goal is to make the Writ less credible when people start thinking about it critically and with a skeptical eye for the first time in a thousand years.

thanatos wrote:Second, within the Inner Circle there is the understanding that faith cannot ultimately depend upon a lie and that a rejection of God resulting in the revelation of the truth is an acceptable spiritual risk. For the moment, they must let the lie stand until the coercive power of the CoGA is broken. The philosophical tools they are using to accomplish this are entirely secular - an appeal to both the rulers and the ruled of Safehold to reject the Church because of its corruption. And Clyntahn’s atrocities only fuel that hatred even further. Yet there will always be those, even among the reformists, who would want a return to the status quo ante, to the reassertion of the Church’s authority throughout Safehold, albeit with new management, and a return to the “traditional” (and familiar) lifestyle espoused by the church (which includes the re-imposition of the Strictures). Add to them all those who benefited from the previous system (like say Harchongese nobles), people fearful of the technological changes (because they experienced the horrors of technological warfare) and those who truly believed the Church was right to attempt to destroy the “heresy” and you get the people who will coalesce for the next big fight.

No one is arguing that the Inner Circle should just go for it and trumpet the truth from the rooftops. It’d be suicidal, and taint *every* advancement made thus far.

I agree that the majority of reformists hope that the schism can be healed and the Church reformed and reunited. That’s probably a factor of distance from Old Charis and its industrial revolution, however. That same distance, however, brings you closer to the atrocities committed in Siddarmark and those people are the ones least likely to ever forgive Mother Church for her actions.

That said, I’m hesitant to extend that to a rejection of the advancements Charis has made. Railroads, steamships, gas lighting, the assembly line, and everything else improve conditions to an extent that can’t be denied. There isn’t an industry or kingdom on Safehold that wouldn’t benefit from them. Even northern Harchong is going to have some trouble with denying their usefulness (they’ll still try, of course). People might not be comfortable with the rate of innovation, but after a short period of time, those concerns are lessened through familiarity.

It won’t prevent the next war, and I agree with you about the likely major players in that war, but a lot of those groups will come out into the open well before the millennial return and/or the Reveal because they have no other choice. Harchong, for example, can’t compete against assembly lines and mechanized farming with serfs. And while Harchong might think trade is beneath them, they still have to deal with the consequences when their entire balance of trade is effectively eliminated. The same goes for those most uncomfortable with the changes being made: at some point during those twenty years, they’ll boil over. If they don’t, they miss their chance to prevent the end of whatever it is that each group holds dear (spiritual stasis, secular power, etc.). So the next war will have to deal with remnants and echoes of those groups trying to coalesce, but their initial industrial and power base will be significantly curtailed by comparison. It’ll still be a truly nasty fight, but it’ll be much shorter than the current one.

Where it all gets really interesting is when you start thinking about what happens after that war. For a while, I thought that they’d have a long-term security problem with a fringe minority of true believers making trouble. But the more I think about it, the more I think that’s unlikely. In addition to being able to recreate every single angelic miracle, prance about on “Holy ground,” and profane the hell out of the Rakurai while daring Langhorne to react, they’re going to be able to highlight the Church’s atrocities in a manner that’ll go a long way towards eliminating any lingering love of the CoGA. When you can witness full holographic recordings of concentration camps, mass murder, torture, and more it’s hard not to be sickened or to deny the wrongness of it when you can witness for yourself thousands of children being murdered. I think you’ll have some holdouts, but they’ll struggle to recruit amongst the younger generations. Give it enough time, and it’ll die out to a man.

MuonNeutrino wrote:All of that was framed in terms of the Earth and Venus, but the same will of course apply to Safehold and any interior planets in its system. Now, we don’t know for sure if Safehold’s solar system *has* any significant inner planets, but the general picture emerging seems to be that most stable orbital slots will get *something* orbiting in them as a system forms. So if the inner system remained undisturbed enough by the jovian planets during the formation for Safehold to survive intact, it would not be surprising at all for there to also be other terrestrial planets, and if Safehold is far away enough from its star to be in the habitable zone than the chances of at least one of those planets be orbiting closer than it are good. So, while obviously we can’t say for sure that there should be inner planets in the system the odds seem good to me.

The original mission plan was for humanity to take to space again and start colonizing anew in preparation for hitting the Gbaba again. Langhorne wasn’t able to interfere until after a system was selected and terraforming was completed.

That means that the Safehold system would have contained everything humanity would have needed to complete the original mission. Gas giant(s) for large fueling operations, large asteroid belts, deposits for any super-rare minerals critical to operations, and most likely room for expansion before they’re ready to go interstellar. So that probably means terraformable moons or planets. Point being, it’s a full system with everything they might need while they’re building up their strength but not yet ready to expand to new systems and increase the risk of detection (if that’s even a concern at this point). In that sort of system, based on what we’ve discovered even today, chances are pretty good that there are inner planets and other phenomena that can be observed that contradict the Writ’s ptolemaic model.

After all, the Writ didn’t try to explain everything. It just tried to explain things that could be readily observed while undercutting the possibility of developing to the point where they can start to observe the contradictory phenomena that’s not described in the Writ.