Misdirection by MWW, Rainbow Waters vs Thursk, HFQ SPOILERS

SciFi90 wrote: Mr. Weber may provide that the supply route to provide food and arms to the Harchong soldiers army be cut, or severely restricted. (As I have noted elsewhere, the arming of a skimmer with guns to destroy the ship carrying the Thirsk family would allow it's use to blow up supply- and arms-dumps furnishing the Harchongese).

This I find unlikely, mainly due to Merlin choosing to carry out pretty much all his killings in person. In addition the reprisal attacks the inquisition would launch are a good deterrent versus Merlin.

That MWW mentions the possibility of the Langhorne Canal being cut in text does indicate possible foreshadowing. Given how intelligent Rainbow Waters is I doubt he would let it happen, to the point of ignoring Clyntahn orders to hold fast. My guess is Charis using the navy to support a force traveling north on the Sabana River. One small enough to withdraw entirely, with ironclad support would be a threat the HoGaA has to deal with. Given Clyntahn's unwillingness to retreat it could pose a challenge for the HoGaA to deal with while not pissing Clyntahn off.

I think Rainbow Waters is the strongest indication that as soon as Clyntahn gets whacked, the CoGA sues for a negotiated peace. His forces can slow down the ICA long enough for the improved Temple industry to produce enough weapons to stand off the Allied advance.

The key will be how quickly the Temple can produce their own bolt action rifle. They captured enough samples to be able to redesign them for their own purposes if need be. If their production circles get the proper jigs in place soon enough, they can produce bolt actions in large quantities. The key issue will be cartridges. I think they can draw enough brass, but they can't assemble the rounds with nearly the same efficiency. That doesn't mean they can't assemble enough rounds to enable for a solid defense.

If they pull of the bolt action and produce enough ammo quickly enough, they can have a solid shot at establishing defensible lines. I doubt that ammo production will be robust enough for them to engage in major offensives for quite some time. Until that changes, they will sue for peace.

PeterZ wrote:I think Rainbow Waters is the strongest indication that as soon as Clyntahn gets whacked, the CoGA sues for a negotiated peace. His forces can slow down the ICA long enough for the improved Temple industry to produce enough weapons to stand off the Allied advance.

The key will be how quickly the Temple can produce their own bolt action rifle. They captured enough samples to be able to redesign them for their own purposes if need be. If their production circles get the proper jigs in place soon enough, they can produce bolt actions in large quantities. The key issue will be cartridges. I think they can draw enough brass, but they can't assemble the rounds with nearly the same efficiency. That doesn't mean they can't assemble enough rounds to enable for a solid defense.

If they pull of the bolt action and produce enough ammo quickly enough, they can have a solid shot at establishing defensible lines. I doubt that ammo production will be robust enough for them to engage in major offensives for quite some time. Until that changes, they will sue for peace.

If Clyntahn had been acting rationally, the plot of the story would be much different than it does now.

Reproducing the M96s probably isn't going to happen, at least not any time soon. To much precision involved in how the parts fit together. Much the same problem that Zhwaigair observed trying to reproduce the original Mandrayans.

But back to Clyntahn, he has threatened to cast aside Duchairn, Magwair and "their technicians" and demonstrate what trusting God can do. I wonder if this isn't where the story arc is taking us. If that happens, the COGA's fanaticism is going to have a final hoorah as Clyntahn rides the ship down in flames.

Don

CJK wrote:@ Dathi at this point their is no reason for Charis to make such an offer, nor is it really that practical. First these are Harchong peasants who are deeply devout and second how would Charis make an offer like that and be believed? The Harchongese have no yardstick to measure how Charis stands by its word (or how much Clyntahn lies) given that they would have seen very little of the jihad.

As for using them to destabilize Harchong, that is going to happen anyway. The rifle pretty much beats out all other available weapons until you get the artillery and tanks. After all after the war with several million rifles made it is fairly easy for a few to find their way into a serf's hands. At which point his noble master will probably be tasting lead pretty soon.

1) No point in causing the biggest and most formidable army in front of you to collapse? Say what?

2) the point isn't to destabilize Harchong once the war is over, that would be messy. The point is to WIN the war.

3) People keep referring to the ultra-orthodoxy of Harchong.
a) how much of that is the aristocracy, and how much do peasants really care/understand.
b) given a choice between owning your own land and being a serf, how much are religious matters going to matter? To many, the answer is 'a lot'. But how many.
c) The Alliance allows Freedom of Religion - so the deserting serf doesn't even have to abandon his faith.

Dathi, the big thing is the CoGA supports not only serfdom but actual slavery.

No point because Charis is the heretic enemy vs Earl Rainbow Waters who helped make the HoGaA into a formidable force. THAT required treating his soldiers like men instead of animals, why would they discard that for the promises of heretics? IMO there is next to no chance of them deserting due to the serfs being treated far better in service of the CoGA, plus the hold the CoGA has in spiritual matters.

I also see Harchong destabilization as a probable event, unless you believe Charis can occupy Harchong. Remember Harchong is considered the largest empire on Safehold, with a heavily entrenched ruling class. On Earth that kind of setup with the advent of gunpowder weapons led to civil war.

There is another element to all this that seems to be missing in the discussion. Yes, Rainbow Waters is not overextending his troops; but remember after the unfortunate incident at the church, Magwiar and Duchairn are in a much stronger position having gotten Clyntahn to agree to let them run the military "unassisted" by him. Thus we see that rather throwing more forces into the fray before they can be fully prepared, the HoGaA is being carefully positioned and supplied so that when it moves, it will not be stopped by training, force levels, or logistics.

While the original attacks very nearly worked, they also were forced to occur earlier than Magwair was expecting or intending, and really were not quite ready.

Charis and Siddermark have disposed of the first armies to attack them, and pushed several of the combatants out of the war temporarily or permanently. They were fortunate that the late spring prevented the more rapid movement of the HoGaA. However, they now face a much larger, trained army while having less of a technological advantage in next year's battles. Fortunately, that army is slightly out of position, and Charis has a bit better position on the field, if they can keep Green Valley supplied.

Clyntahn has a rather bad track record of keeping his word, even with his allies. The Sword of Schueler attack was planned by Clyntahn even while he assured the Go4 he will keep his hands off Siddarmark in exchange for Charisian prisoners. Or how he undercut Magwair over the galley fleet after discussing with Trynair that it would be better if it the recognition of its obsolescence officially came from Magwair. NTM Clyntahn has routinely lies to his colleagues and withholds critical information, CLyntahn KNEW what the steam ironclad was when it knocked out the canals for example where the rest of the Go4 did not..

Granted the situation favors Clyntahn not interfering, just don't bet the house on it.