Possible spoiler? Cut the head off the serpent...

Hi Don,

Given the winter experience, equipment and training BGV's army has, sending his army by sea to Zion after defeating the northern MHoG sub army earlier this summer, ie up the Zion river in steam landing craft already mentioned, with enough supplies to stay the winter seems very possible from the textev.

Ideally, the news of the defeat of the other MHoG sub armies should reach the temple during the 2-3 5days needed for BGV's voyage [~2800 miles IIRC], so they know just how great the cataclysm is, with no time to raise new armies let alone train and deploy them.

Cutting direct quasi-immediate communications with the BS and what's left east of the temple will end when the supply of messenger wyverns is exhausted, though ships using Lake Pei to get around the alliance occupation territory will add only 2-3 days until ICN ironclads can dominate the lake via the Zion river.

Who knows?

We might see Halcom Bahrns and HMS Delthak among others operating in Lake Pei this fall too!

The whole coast of Lake Pei is within 2-3 days of Zion, and while commerce raiding might be considered politically indelicate at the time, the message that the alliance has arrived might be telegraphed to all the local TL's most powerfully by the Delthak's [among others] new breech loaders up to 8 miles inland.

If the locals fear the ironclads will interfere too much with lake trade, there might be a mass migration from Zion and its nearby regions before winter solely for that reason alone, reducing those BGV might have to worry about.

"Fascinating".

L


[quote="n7axw"][quote="McGuiness"]*quote="n7axw"*Just from looking at Hsing-wu's passage on the map, it should be possible to slip in out of sight of the mainland or the semaphore system. The main danger of detection would come from small fishing boats or coastal craft.

I'm not sure that it matters much, though. The Temple's main forces are too far away to intervene even if the Temple gets warning.

Don*quote*You're probably right - I originally envisioned the entire campaign to capture the temple after AMF, when they'd have had to use galleons rather than steam powered battleships.

The Temple Guard is probably spread more thinly in Zion and the surrounding areas now than before the invasion of Siddarmark, so militarily it's a good time to invade Zion. Ecclesiastically though, Safehold isn't ready for it.

RFC said this much more eloquently than I can in a previous thread, but the leadership of the CoGA needs to become [i]so [/i]discredited that the reaction of the Safeholdian in the street will no longer be "The heretics invaded Zion and seized the temple!" but rather "The EoC [i]finally [/i] did something about those crooked vicars living in Zion - and especially in the Temple!"

So there needs to be a massive "hearts and minds" campaign, for which Aivah has provided quite a lot of useful ammunition which is sitting in a chest in Charis. Time to use it...

When enough people are tired of the war, sick of losing loved ones in a struggle they simply can't win, and realize the extent of the corruption in the vicarate, then invading Zion and seizing the Temple will not only be militarily feasible, but socially acceptable. [/quote]

I'm not sure that socially acceptable is a worthwhile criterion for a decision such as this.

The real questions should be as to whether or not the allies can sustain an occupation of Zion once they do it, what the impact on the front lines would be on other theaters of war, the impact on TL morale, how having the chain of command cut off would impact the coordination of Temple armies. And perhaps the biggest question would be whether or not it would shorten the war, thus saving lives.

I'm not sure how this shakes out. It would certainly underline emphaticly the Temple's defeat which I see as a crucial war aim. My own impulse would be, go for it; the sooner the better.

Don[/quote]

I read Lyonhart's and Don's discourse with great interest, and consider their points very valid. BGV is definitely a "wild card" as it relates to the ability of an army to rapidly shift focus and attack in a wholly different direction (why does Patton in the battle of the bulge come to mind when I say that??).

IMHO, a "lightning strike" to take out the Temple has to have a couple strategic goals if you want to consider it:
- Seize the Temple, the GO4, and the VAST majority of the Vicarate there. If you can't get all of the GO4 and almost all of the Vicarate, then you leave cancerous cells - which would be a "bad thing."
- Seize the Inquisition's documentary "evidence," as well as any other evidence stored in the Temple that will enable trials of the Vicars under their own laws (corruption, rape, murder, malfeasance, bribery, etc, etc.) Enough to be able to try the Vicars under their own rules!
- Eliminate the ability of the Temple's senior leaders (Magwair?) to issue orders to the field forces - the intent is to cause mass confusion on the part of those armies and to "get inside" their decision loops in an overt way (Merlin and company are already in the loop in a covert way with the SNARC drones in the field general's tents).

So while it might be appealing to attack the Temple and "cut the head off" as I mentioned in starting the thread, there needs to be a compelling reason to do so - as part of a broader strategy.