Speculating about Duchairn's conspiracy

=2015/02/20=
Hi Guys

After the Church has been defeated, I would like to see the next leader of the Church of God Awaiting (Grand Vicar) be aware of the Terran Federation and the Gbaba.

If that happens, it would make it more likely that the truth would be acceptable to the rest of Safehold since the reformed church could get behind and push for true reform.

I don't see how RFC could make this happen, but it would be a really neat trick if that new leader were Duchairn !!!

?? Comments ??

R
.

n7axw wrote:I am not sure just what sort of trip wire Duchairn would need to actively enable his conspiracy...

But I do see Clyntahn's position as being a lot more fragile than he himself visualizes. Terror can carry you so far. But the more you have people afraid of you, the narrower your actual base of honest to goodness support becomes. When you get to the point when everyone would cheer your departure, your time is probably getting short.

Don

That is an interesting question. Unfortunately for Duchairn, there are several levels for interest involved.
1. Clyntahn stands for the current primacy of the Order of Schueler and the ultimate authority of the Inquisition. For members of his order, and for Inquisitors in particular, he has brought them more power and influence. As the Order of Schueler is by no means a small entity, this is a solid power base.
Of course, if Clyntahn's direction of th jihad is seen to fail, which would threaten the currently expanded power of the OoS, then there might be an internal revolt against Clyntahn, probably led by Rayno. But that won't help Duchairn.
2. If there is an outside challenge, people tend to stand by their leaders, even if said leaders are somewhat unpopular. This pertains certainly to the OoS, so any attempts for the Langhornites or Chihirites (Duchairn) to challenge them, would be fought. This secures support for Clyntahn and ups the ante for Duchairn.
3. Because of that, anyone considering to move against Clyntahn needs to move against the OoS. And that complicates matters significantly.
4. People will suffer oppression and terror, if they are sufficiently frightened and the oppressors show no sign of weakness. Clyntahn has managed to get his likely opponents into that position. Since the might of the Inquisition seems overwhelming, acting against them is seen as suicidal and others will be reluctant to be implicated in any plans.
While Clyntahn's position might indeed be weaker than he thinks, the chances of Duchairn of pulling something off against the OoS are significantly lower.
Of course, Duchairn would be able to kill Clyntahn. But he and his allies and friends wouldn't survive it. And that's the point.

anwi wrote:

n7axw wrote:I am not sure just what sort of trip wire Duchairn would need to actively enable his conspiracy...

But I do see Clyntahn's position as being a lot more fragile than he himself visualizes. Terror can carry you so far. But the more you have people afraid of you, the narrower your actual base of honest to goodness support becomes. When you get to the point when everyone would cheer your departure, your time is probably getting short.

Don

That is an interesting question. Unfortunately for Duchairn, there are several levels for interest involved.
1. Clyntahn stands for the current primacy of the Order of Schueler and the ultimate authority of the Inquisition. For members of his order, and for Inquisitors in particular, he has brought them more power and influence. As the Order of Schueler is by no means a small entity, this is a solid power base.
Of course, if Clyntahn's direction of th jihad is seen to fail, which would threaten the currently expanded power of the OoS, then there might be an internal revolt against Clyntahn, probably led by Rayno. But that won't help Duchairn.
2. If there is an outside challenge, people tend to stand by their leaders, even if said leaders are somewhat unpopular. This pertains certainly to the OoS, so any attempts for the Langhornites or Chihirites (Duchairn) to challenge them, would be fought. This secures support for Clyntahn and ups the ante for Duchairn.
3. Because of that, anyone considering to move against Clyntahn needs to move against the OoS. And that complicates matters significantly.
4. People will suffer oppression and terror, if they are sufficiently frightened and the oppressors show no sign of weakness. Clyntahn has managed to get his likely opponents into that position. Since the might of the Inquisition seems overwhelming, acting against them is seen as suicidal and others will be reluctant to be implicated in any plans.
While Clyntahn's position might indeed be weaker than he thinks, the chances of Duchairn of pulling something off against the OoS are significantly lower.
Of course, Duchairn would be able to kill Clyntahn. But he and his allies and friends wouldn't survive it. And that's the point.

Maybe. Under normal conditions, I would give Duchairn almost no chance of survival. If it is done in coordination with Magwair and a force of guardsmen, his chances go to better than even, especially if he has advance warning and manages to get himself out of eaesy reach.

If it is done in coordination with Nynian's people, I have no idea how it comes out because we don't know how much they can actually bring to the table.

Don