Arcanian Civil War Implications?

From what I've seen most folk here seem to take the view that the Sharonians are pretty much unstoppable and thus are going to mop the floor with the Arcanians. Bearing in mind that I desperately need to reread the books, I was under the impression that one of the Sharonian royals - either king or princess, had had a foresight flash of dragons attacking the palace in Sharonia. If true then obviously the Arcanians have to advance a wee way further! More importantly, from what I recall of the series, Arcania is a union of Fascist Africans, a chivalrous Roman Empire, and the assorted Chinese republics. The Union only happened because the global war that occurred centuries ago threatened planetary annihilation - a bad peace is better than no world. Problem is the Africans (Mythalans? Apologies it's too long since I read the series ) have no intention of preserving the Union and are actively sabotaging the war effort in an attempt to seize power. When it becomes clear a civil war is in progress Arcanian forces will likely collapse or abandon the front as they flee home to support their side leaving the Sharonians scrambling to keep up, right?

Yes I need to reread the books!

Bewildered wrote:From what I've seen most folk here seem to take the view that the Sharonians are pretty much unstoppable and thus are going to mop the floor with the Arcanians. Bearing in mind that I desperately need to reread the books, I was under the impression that one of the Sharonian royals - either king or princess, had had a foresight flash of dragons attacking the palace in Sharonia. If true then obviously the Arcanians have to advance a wee way further! More importantly, from what I recall of the series, Arcania is a union of Fascist Africans, a chivalrous Roman Empire, and the assorted Chinese republics. The Union only happened because the global war that occurred centuries ago threatened planetary annihilation - a bad peace is better than no world. Problem is the Africans (Mythalans? Apologies it's too long since I read the series ) have no intention of preserving the Union and are actively sabotaging the war effort in an attempt to seize power. When it becomes clear a civil war is in progress Arcanian forces will likely collapse or abandon the front as they flee home to support their side leaving the Sharonians scrambling to keep up, right?

Yes I need to reread the books!

That sounds about right.

And yes, Mythal is the psycho magocracy.

I wouldn't say the sharonians are unstoppable. With the current information it appears that the arcanan weapons will not be able to stop steam powered mechanized cavalry or infantry, without a significant force or terrain adavantage. However there are a couple of things left to consider, namely two tools/weapons mentioned that have not received any use in the story, as well as that the arcanans potentially having a much larger population and economy (most agree it is larger, but how much we don't yet know).

The weapons mentioned are war staffs, and incendiary charges. The only mention of incendiary charges is in chapter nine of Hell's Gate, and apparently it could bring down a relatively large tree (six feet at the base). Such a weapon could probably destroy, or at least damage, an armored vehicle; if you can deliver it to the vehicle. War staffs are mentioned in chapter eleven, and it says infantry and field-dragons were developed from them. No other information is known. The problem is we don't know enough about either to determine how much of an impact they will have on the war.

Having said this I suspect that the arcanan expeditionary force is going to get stomped, unless they can pull out before becoming engaged and trapped artillery. Attempting to evacuate by dragon while under an artillery barrage that is directed by a distance viewer or two, is probably futile.

As for a civil war on Arcana that may be how the war between Sharona and Arcana ends. Sharona will likely capture a bunch of universes in that case, but will not make it all the way to Arcana for several years. I suspect that we will see several major battles before any end to the fighting, regardless of what ends it.

I do think that the Sharonans will be able to advance steadily for a number of years. However, the Arcanans have so much defensive depth, along the current front, that Sharona can do that and never get to anything important. We shall see (hopefully) if the authors plan to skip several years or add new factors which speed things up.

I do not expect an Arcanan civil war at this time. I expect what mul Gurthak and Harshu have done will create a very large political scandal but will not come close to triggering a civil war.

Everyone on Arcana knows that a society without magic cannot have an advanced economy. This means everyone will agree that what mul Gurthak and Harshu have done is not a threat to the Union. The reaction will be similar to reactions in first world countries to the abuse of people in the third world countries by their governments or corporations. The best part of society is scandalized and demand reforms, the rest is indifferent and no one is angered enough to consider overturning the system. Mythal wants to overthrow the system but knows they would lose if they tried direct actions so they won't.

Now, if Sharona is able to advance steadily for years and comes to threaten universes Arcanans care about or if the demands of the war start hurting the common Arcanan then things could change but in my judgement that is years off. Unless of course the authors have something planned to make it happen faster.

Nicholas

I suspect that arcanan leadership will recognize the danger of sharonian capabilities before several years have passed. Whether the average arcanan recognizes it is another question. It looks like we have the fast moving and potentially hard hitting arcanans versus the extremely tough (but not indestructible) and devastating sharonians.

It will become apparent, to those who pay attention, that while sharonian machines may not equal arcana speed, they have a whole host of advantages that arcana can't yet match.

It would be more accurate to say the Arcanians are ignorant, arrogant, and militarily, they are extremely overextended.

This is bad under any circumstances.

After committing the range of atrocities they have and against a foe they have no real idea what their capabilities are...they have earned the hiding they have coming.

The Arcanians forte' is mobility and they have abandoned it for a stand up fight inside the rail based artillery support fan of the Sharonans.

This is like the 101st Air Assault Division volunteering to fight like the Imperial Japanese Marines in Engebi, Kwajalein beachside bunkers versus the battleships and Marines of the US fleet.

Bewildered wrote:From what I've seen most folk here seem to take the view that the Sharonians are pretty much unstoppable and thus are going to mop the floor with the Arcanians. Bearing in mind that I desperately need to reread the books, I was under the impression that one of the Sharonian royals - either king or princess, had had a foresight flash of dragons attacking the palace in Sharonia. If true then obviously the Arcanians have to advance a wee way further! More importantly, from what I recall of the series, Arcania is a union of Fascist Africans, a chivalrous Roman Empire, and the assorted Chinese republics. The Union only happened because the global war that occurred centuries ago threatened planetary annihilation - a bad peace is better than no world. Problem is the Africans (Mythalans? Apologies it's too long since I read the series ) have no intention of preserving the Union and are actively sabotaging the war effort in an attempt to seize power. When it becomes clear a civil war is in progress Arcanian forces will likely collapse or abandon the front as they flee home to support their side leaving the Sharonians scrambling to keep up, right?

Yes I need to reread the books!

I agree that arcanan forces abandoning their mobility to fight a static battle almost assures their destruction. I pointed out in another thread that if an arcanan force comes under artillery barrage they won't be able to effectively evacuate that force, the dragons being to easy to kill with distance viewer guided artillery. I was talking about a specific force, but it would apply to any such engaged force.

Yes the arcanans have been very arrogant, and are extremely overcommitted. They should have waited for word from Arcana itself before taking any action. That alone would have assured that reinforcements were closer to the front before the fighting began. Although if they had waited there likely would not have been a war.

As for ignorant, I can't really blame them. The next question is how willing are they to relearn the art of war? How badly will they have to have their nosed ground into the dust before they begin making changes? Or can they win despite their seeming disadvantages? Still trying to keep an open mind.

Bewildered wrote: was under the impression that one of the Sharonian royals - either king or princess, had had a foresight flash of dragons attacking the palace in Sharonia. If true then obviously the Arcanians have to advance a wee way further!

it's been a while since I reread these but, IIRC, that Glimpse was before the fight at Fort Salby. So it's quite possible that Prince's sacrifice to turn the battle there already closed off the chain of causality that would have led to that Glimpse.


Because if the Arcanans hadn't been stopped there it's possible that their dragon aided mobility might have let them continue to raid deeper (overextend) possibly even into Sharona itself. I got the impression that the rest of the chain wasn't very heavily militarized and I don't think the other portals offered any real terrain advantage against dragons. So there seems a decent chance the Arcanans could have bypassed (or surprised and overwhelmed) anybody in those intervening words without being blocked.

It is also quite possible that the glimpse showed something different then we are assuming it did. Tajvana could burn for all sorts of reasons (fighting between Chava and his allies and the throne for example) and the things flying above the city could be early attempts at airplanes, airships, or even balloons. We don't know exactly how clear that particular glimpse was, details may not have been readily identifiable.

There is a joker in the deck. Both the Sharonans and and Arcanans have found that the further they travel from their home universe to the opposing side, the weaker their control over their Talents (Sharona) or their magic (Gryphons) becomes. Conversely, there are indications that Arcanans may have latent Talents. In this case, I do not recall a similar comment about Sharonans, but one might expect reciprocity. What this change of talents/magic will do is anyone's guess, but I do think it is the joker in the deck.