Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests
Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Michael Everett » Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:32 pm | |
Michael Everett
Posts: 2619
|
At the time of posting this, there are 11 days left until Scotland votes on whether or not it wants to rend apart the United Kingdom and go its own way.
I believe that the economics of the situation tend to support the "Better Together" campaign. Alex Salmond's case for independence seems to revolve primarily around the North Sea Oil. However, the amount of oil extracted has fallen by an average of 7.8% per year since 1999 while the actual price of oil is highly variable, in no small part due to the actions of places like Russia and Saudi Arabia. Scotland also spends more per capita on the NHS and benefits than any other area of the UK. A distressingly high percentage of its population is either on benefits or working for the government, it has an average of 740 private businesses per 10,000 population, lower than anywhere except the most deprived areas of the north-west. As a result, economic wealth creation is somewhat limited. These facts added together mean that if Scotland does choose to go it alone (an outcome that is looking more likely), it will suffer from moderate to severe financial problems as it either scrambles for money to maintain its current government spending levels or instigates cuts that make the Lib-Dem/Tory government seem like spendthrifts in comparison. As for Scotland joining the EU, forget it. The Spanish Government has gone on record as saying that they will utilize their veto power to block Scotland's entry. The reasoning for this is the Catelonia issue, a region of Spain with a small but significant number of campaigners (and some terrorist/freedom fighters) who are trying to get the region declared a country in its own right. Should Scotland be allowed into the EU, the Catalonians will take it as a sign that their dream of an independent Catalonia is viable and will increase their actions in an attempt to secure independence for themselves. Yes, this is unfair to Scotland, but the Spanish government doesn't want a seccesionist crisis of its own. With Scotland needing to create its own currency (all 3 political parties have declared that there would be no currency union between the UK and an independent Scotland) and lacking the support of the Bank of England, the Scottish economy will be far more fragile and less able to dampen out economic shocks. Furthermore, if Scotland decides to declare that it will not pay its portion of the National Debt because the debt belongs to the UK (of which it is no longer a part), it will become a financial pariah with any loans it takes out being the subject of usurious rates of interest. Conversely, if it does accept the portion of debt, that will seriously impact on the amount of money Scotland has available. The reason that I think that Scotland will decide to go independent can be summed up as Nationalism and a low-level but pervasive hatred of the English Sassenachs. The whole William Wallace aspect also comes into play, despite the fact that he lost (which may be an important historical lesson). I believe that if Scotland does go independent, it will have about six months of apparent prosperity before all the other factors combine in an economic perfect storm which will cause the country to virtually collapse, with multi-national companies deserting it, as well as many Scots who will flock to England in search of work or benefits. In short, unless Scotland either discovers a huge trove of previously untapped resources (like diamonds, gold or new oil fields) or seriously reforms its benefits system to drive people into non-government work, I don't see it lasting a decade before it collapses economically. Of course, that's just what I believe... (Oil and business figured taken from the Sunday Times, 07/Sep/2014) ~~~~~~
I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork. (Now on Twitter)and mentioned by RFC! ACNH Dreams at DA-6594-0940-7995 |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Michael Riddell » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:33 pm | |
Michael Riddell
Posts: 352
|
Summoned, I come.....
Well, at least that latest YouGov poll has woken up England. It was rather amusing to watch Osbourne this morning. If they are serious about further powers for Holyrood, they should have made a detailed announcement before now. I found this article on the BBC news website: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2014/newsspec_8699/index.html It might give a better insight as to what this is now all about, rather than assuming it's only Anti-English feeling. This part sums it up: I asked one, an old friend I hadn’t seen for at least 10 years, why he’d be voting yes. “I changed my mind quite a while ago. For me it’s about the way Britain has gone - the extremes of wealth and poverty that people down south seem comfortable with, the dominance of the privately educated people in all walks of life, the rise of UKIP, the talk of leaving the EU and a Labour Party that I don’t really recognise any more”. He is not alone. Social attitudes surveys reveal that Scottish public opinion, on any given question, is not very different to opinion elsewhere in the UK. The Scots do not seem to be more left-wing, issue-by-issue, than anyone else - at least not by very much. Why, then, do the Scots vote so differently? Why is it that the central Edinburgh constituency that I live in returns a Labour MP dependably at every general election? When I moved here in the 1970s and 80s, it was a Tory seat and Edinburgh was mostly a Tory city. The yes-supporting journalist and writer George Kerevan has himself moved from the British left to the independence camp. The need for independence as he sees it is “based on the need to put into practice traditional Scottish views on morality inherited from the Reformation and codified by the Scottish Enlightenment… This is a moral philosophy that definitely encourages private endeavour rather than state paternalism, but it also anchors private morality in a social context". In other words, private endeavour and reward should be connected in some way to the greater public good. For nationalist intellectuals who have, in the course of their lifetimes moved to the independence camp, what is happening in Scotland is, in part, a Presbyterian revolt against what they perceive as the growing inequality of British society - the apparent retreat from the ideals of social mobility, from the social justice agenda that characterised post-war Britain from the 40s to the 80s. Interesting indeed. Here's an alternative take on the Scotland's tax and spend stream: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-28879267 Deficit spending is just as much a problem for the whole of the UK. It's not insurmountable, but it would make more sense to reconstruct the economy whilst still part of the UK. Assuming more tax raising powers are given, it might make the administration at Holyrood more circumspect in what it spends as it would be fiscally responsible for it's actions. Which, IMHO, is a good thing. No more blaming Westminster for all ills! Personally, I'm voting No as I favour further devolution, but do I hope that some good will come out of this. The UK as a whole needs major constitutional overhaul - Westminster (and Whitehall) need to realise that people are fed up with the state of the country. More power has to be devolved to a local level or British democracy will die. We have the SNP in Scotland, but England has UKIP. Are they, really, any different? Mike. ---------------------
Gonnae no DAE that! Why? Just gonnae NO! --------------------- |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Michael Riddell » Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:01 pm | |
Michael Riddell
Posts: 352
|
Here's some more data from that poll, note that the reported 51%/49% rating is without the "Don't Knows" factored in.
Mike. ---------------------
Gonnae no DAE that! Why? Just gonnae NO! --------------------- |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Daryl » Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:10 am | |
Daryl
Posts: 3562
|
It's all over now. The Windsors have rolled out their ultimate weapon. It is official, Kate is in the pudding club. Well timed wot?
Every celebrity follower and little old lady will flock to the cause, and their votes count as much as anyone's. |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Michael Riddell » Tue Sep 09, 2014 4:10 am | |
Michael Riddell
Posts: 352
|
Doing her royal duty - heir plus spare! Mike. ---------------------
Gonnae no DAE that! Why? Just gonnae NO! --------------------- |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Tenshinai » Tue Sep 09, 2014 3:43 pm | |
Tenshinai
Posts: 2893
|
Yeah, definite risk of that scenario.
Which could set up for some rather black humor if there is a rush of underemployed Scots towards the south(or south/east). |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by biochem » Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:08 pm | |
biochem
Posts: 1372
|
To be fair to poor Kate they have to announce it. Her morning sickness is so severe that she has to cancel all of her engagements. To have her disappear would send the tabloids into a frenzy, while many of them would assume pregnancy, other will get creative: Princess Kate Contracts Ebola Princess Kate Kidnapped by Aliens Princess Kate to have Octuplets Princess Kate Murdered by the Queen in Diana Coverup Etc etc |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Michael Riddell » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:16 am | |
Michael Riddell
Posts: 352
|
For information:
http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn135.pdf IFS study from 2012, so some data will probably be out of date. Although I'm in the No camp, I view increased devolution (Devo Max) as a "try before you buy". Mainly to see if the clowns at Holyrood are actually capable of running the economy in a sensible manner. Finally, brighten up people! Is there something about the political right that means you have to miserable or apocalyptic in your outlook?! ---------------------
Gonnae no DAE that! Why? Just gonnae NO! --------------------- |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Michael Everett » Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:38 am | |
Michael Everett
Posts: 2619
|
I find that it is better to be slightly pessimistic as that way surprises will tend towards being good rather than bad. if you know what can go wrong, you can make plans on how to fix it when it does... ~~~~~~
I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork. (Now on Twitter)and mentioned by RFC! ACNH Dreams at DA-6594-0940-7995 |
Top |
Re: Countdown To Catastrophe? | |
---|---|
by Michael Everett » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:09 am | |
Michael Everett
Posts: 2619
|
It is becoming more and more apparent that Salmond hasn't done his sums regarding Scottish Independence and its effect on the Scottish Economy. His claims that the Tories were causing companies to state their nervousness about the stability of the Scottish Economy was... laughable.
The Barnett Formula (Scotland gets more cash per head than anywhere else) and the West Lothian Question (Scottish MP's can vote on things that do not affect Scotland) have irritated English Nationalists for some time, hence the large minority of English who actually want Scotland to go its own way. This led to an amusing observation on the reason why the referendum is being held only in Scotland. It would be a political nightmare for Salmond if Scotland voted to stay part of the UK... and the rest of the UK voted to kick Scotland out! The Labour Party are trying (in their usual incompetent manner) to pull out all of the stops in trying to prevent the very process that they themselves triggered with their whole "multiculteralism is better than nationalism" and "The Tories are to blame for everything" stances that have encouraged the Scots to disassociate themselves from Westminster. If Scotland does secede from the UK, what will the political effects be? Labour will find itself relegated to near-permanent opposition status since it would be the party that lost Scotland (Labour rely on its 50+ Scottish MP's, the Tories have but 1) and the one-two hit of numbers and reputation would probably cause mass desertions to the Lib-Dems. This could lead to the Lib-Dems and Labour swapping their Westminster positions with the Lib-Dems being the Opposition while Labour become the squeaky voice on the sidelines. Scotland itself will have to cope without the Barnett Formula. As Scotland has for years spent more money than it has raised itself (even including the North Sea revenues), financially, it could become rather... iffy. And with Salmond unable to pin the blame on the Tories, very painful spending cuts and tax raises are looming. Ironically, after a certain point, the higher the tax, the less money is raised because all the rich people have upped sticks and left. This was proven by Labour in the 70s when they had a top-tier tax rate of an eye-watering 95% and virtually no rich people to pay it. It'll be interesting, especially since one of my favourite fanfic authors (Robst) seems to be considering the option of independence as a purely good thing. Let's hope that the reverberations of Scottish Independence (if it occurs) don't stop him from writing. National power blackouts (for whatever reason) do have a very nasty effect on productivity, after all. The Conservatives found that out when mineworkers undertook industrial action, thus causing a serious lack of coal for power generation. Given the predominantly left-wing nature of Scotland, a skeptical person would expect a large number of anti-austerity strikes in the near future... ~~~~~~
I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork. (Now on Twitter)and mentioned by RFC! ACNH Dreams at DA-6594-0940-7995 |
Top |