Russian “False-Flag” operations in the Ukraine

It worked for Hitler, so why not Putin?
In 1939 Nazi Germany needed a casus belli that would justify their invasion of Poland. Now the Poles were canny enough not to provide them with on, so the Nazis manufactured their own.
Took inmates out of their KZ-camps, dressed them in civilian clothes together with some in Polish and German uniforms. Shot them all and arranged it to seem as if German soldiers had tried to prevent the slaughter of German civilians by Polish infiltrators.
Hitler got his casus, invaded Poland and started WWII.
Putin has already laid the ground work by intimating that the Ukrainians are committing something that’s close to genocide! With the reports of FSB Special-Forces wearing Ukrainian uniforms acting against Russian interests, all that’s needed is a bunch of dead Gulag prisoners dressed for show!
Well. No one believed Hr. Hitler, and sure as hell no one’s going to believe that Ukrainians would be dumb enough to yank the Bears tail, when the Bear has around 100,000 fellows waiting in the wings ready to pounce!

Arol wrote:It worked for Hitler, so why not Putin?
In 1939 Nazi Germany needed a casus belli that would justify their invasion of Poland. Now the Poles were canny enough not to provide them with on, so the Nazis manufactured their own.
Took inmates out of their KZ-camps, dressed them in civilian clothes together with some in Polish and German uniforms. Shot them all and arranged it to seem as if German soldiers had tried to prevent the slaughter of German civilians by Polish infiltrators.
Hitler got his casus, invaded Poland and started WWII.
Putin has already laid the ground work by intimating that the Ukrainians are committing something that’s close to genocide! With the reports of FSB Special-Forces wearing Ukrainian uniforms acting against Russian interests, all that’s needed is a bunch of dead Gulag prisoners dressed for show!
Well. No one believed Hr. Hitler, and sure as hell no one’s going to believe that Ukrainians would be dumb enough to yank the Bears tail, when the Bear has around 100,000 fellows waiting in the wings ready to pounce!

Do you believe an invasion is going to happen?

Don

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n7axw wrote:
Do you believe an invasion is going to happen?

Don-

At the risk of sounding trite, I have to echo the words of the talking heads on news shows: “Apparently only Putin knows!”
On the one hand Russia being an Autocratic Kleptocracy the people who run things are usually primarily interested in one thing; MONEY! A full scale invasion, followed with a fighting a popular insurrection, will be costly; especially with the heavy sanctions they sure as hell would face. Also their politicians and diplomats would be proven as ball faced liars. No news there! But this time the whole world will have seen it on video.
Take also the sheer cost in logistics that is entailed in moving an army of over 100,000; with all their equipment, during winter to new quarters near the border. All of this, simply as a disinformation diplomatic ploy has also been aired, but that seems a bit out there!
Play that against Putin having reached the pinnacle of power in his country, has made it clear that he would like to see a resurgent Russia. Also he seems to become infected with the penchant to pick off other people’s territory that has been endemic in Russian rulers down through history. Quite successfully too!!! By hook-and –crook, from a fly speck on the banks of the Volga, to what they are today, Putin is simply continuing in the same-old same old.
Murphey being Murphey, I’d give it 60/40 in favour of invasion.
At least they are still talking!

Generally the strength of a nation is measured in GDP. Russia is below South Korea and Canada, well below many independent European countries, and only just above Australia.
It has two military strengths. The ex Soviet Union nukes, and a big armaments industry.
One possible deterrent is that Ukraine has been gifted a lot of state of the art battlefield missiles. Putin must be aware that it will be poor marketing to have a lot of helicopters, tanks and APCs knocked out.
What is imponderable is how much he can afford to lose face if he backs down. A strongman is only strong if people fear him.

Daryl wrote:Generally the strength of a nation is measured in GDP. Russia is below South Korea and Canada, well below many independent European countries, and only just above Australia.
It has two military strengths. The ex Soviet Union nukes, and a big armaments industry.
One possible deterrent is that Ukraine has been gifted a lot of state of the art battlefield missiles. Putin must be aware that it will be poor marketing to have a lot of helicopters, tanks and APCs knocked out.
What is imponderable is how much he can afford to lose face if he backs down. A strongman is only strong if people fear him.

Does Russia have any export for which it is known outside the arms industry?

Don

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Gas.

n7axw wrote:

Daryl wrote:Generally the strength of a nation is measured in GDP. Russia is below South Korea and Canada, well below many independent European countries, and only just above Australia.
It has two military strengths. The ex Soviet Union nukes, and a big armaments industry.
One possible deterrent is that Ukraine has been gifted a lot of state of the art battlefield missiles. Putin must be aware that it will be poor marketing to have a lot of helicopters, tanks and APCs knocked out.
What is imponderable is how much he can afford to lose face if he backs down. A strongman is only strong if people fear him.

Does Russia have any export for which it is known outside the arms industry?

Don

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n7axw wrote:
Does Russia have any export for which it is known outside the arms industry?

Don-

An abundance of natural resources, including oil and natural gas, of which the latter is the problem, as Western Europe gets around 40% of its natural gas from Russia.
This 40% does not include what will flow from the recently completed, but not taken in use Nord Stream II undersea pipeline, stretching from Russia under the Baltic Sea direct to Germany. It has not been taken in use because of political worries in some sectors, that it would give Russia too great an influence.
The current crisis is a good example of where such leverage could be used.

ps://www.vox.com/22894163/russia-ukrain ... biden-nato

During one of Biden's recent speeches he appeared to give Putin the go ahead for a limited invasion. I was gobsmacked. Sure enough it became the subject of talking heads. He is busy cleaning that up now. He says he has made it clear to Putin that any such move would be considered an invasion. But he really doesn't sound too sure of himself.

Many people feared having Biden at the helm if war broke out. Thing is, many more people feared having Trump at the helm even more, especially in matters involving Russia.

Anyone think Putin feels Biden is a pushover, and his move toward Ukraine is a way to get concessions? Anyone think Trump may still be in contact with Putin? After all, this mess with Russia and the Ukraine could make Biden look weak.

cthia wrote:Many people feared having Biden at the helm if war broke out. Thing is, many more people feared having Trump at the helm even more, especially in matters involving Russia.

Anyone think Putin feels Biden is a pushover, and his move toward Ukraine is a way to get concessions? Anyone think Trump may still be in contact with Putin? After all, this mess with Russia and the Ukraine could make Biden look weak.

That Trump was/is a one of Putin’s sock puppets became clear in the press conference he gave after their one-on-one, tête-à-tête.
He flat out accused the people of Montenegro of being a dangerous and violent people, and a danger to world peace and could cause WWIII.
All 5000,000 of them!!!
A rant that occurred in the wake of Montenegro joining NATO, and applying for EU membership after an attempted putsch by pro-Russians in Montenegro, with a trail of breadcrumbs leading back to FSB Headquarters, in Moscow.
Not something that would put the Montenegrins on Putin’s Christmas card list!
It doesn’t take much to imagine a possible scenario with Trump in power, waving a piece of paper like a demented Neville Chamberlain claiming peace in our time, while selling the Ukrainians down the river.
As for President Biden’s Freudian slip regarding a Russian incursion, I think it was just that: a slip of the tongue. The amount of “lethal” aid being shipped from the US to the Ukraine would tend to prove that.