Battle of Sigma Draconis predictions/speculations

The RMN task force is way off at the terminus, doing it's best to not feed Solly propaganda about "Manty Imperialists" pressuring the Beowulfers in their upcomming independence referendum.

Beowulf System Defence Force (BSDF) has Apollo capable, system defence 4-stage MDM missile pods in orbit. They also have excellent SDs of their own, with massively redundant fire control, but they aren't SD(P)s and they don't have Keyhole II.

So the pods will be super long range, and somewhat controllable through the Apollo missiles, but nowhere near as effectively as would be the case if controlled from Manty SDs and not even as well as Gold Peak controlled them at the Battle of Spindle.

The Solarian Navy arrives with a very large force of SDs to take Beowulf and "supervise the fairness of the referendum".

My prediction is that BSDF planners will realise that the missile pods will destroy approximately half of the charging Solly force before they're exhausted; but if the Solly's keep coming they'll reach Beowulf orbit before the Manty force gets in range. So the Beowulf System Defence force charges out to meet them behind the massive waves of MDMS.

The MDMs destroy more than half of the invading force, but the Sollies keep coming. The result is probably the last great conventional SD wall of battle engagement in history. The walls pound each other, they reach energy range, and it's a mutual holocaust.

By the time the Manties get into range the Sollies have one tenth of their ships left and are desperate to surrender. The BSDF, on the other hand, has been almost completely annihilated.

This not only guarantees that the Beowulfers pass their independence referendum by over 90%, but there's a sudden popular movement for Beowulf to join the Star Kingdom on the same terms on which San Martino was admitted.

But there's also sudden and growing pressure for the Grand Fleet to sail to Sol, destroy every warship and military base and shipyard in the system and rip every captured computer for the location of every Solly SD in the galaxy so it can be sought out and destroyed. After the "Manty sponsored terror campaign" on Messa just before Gold Peak took the system, cooler heads worry about the PR implications of attacking Sol. The normally uber-cool Beowlfers are not among them.

Atticus_of_Amber wrote:Beowulf System Defence Force (BSDF) has Apollo capable, system defence 4-stage MDM missile pods in orbit. They also have excellent SDs of their own, with massively redundant fire control, but they aren't SD(P)s and they don't have Keyhole II.

Beowulf should have "Mycroft" up and running before the Plebiscite and any presumed SLN task force arrives. Mycroft is essentially a series of KHII modules with independent power sources and tactical computer support. It is left unclear whether Mycroft will be fully functional before the SLN arrives, the the Apollo SDMs should be sufficient to handle any known SLN task force. Even if Mycroft isn't operational, the 36 scientist-class SDs of the BSDF will be able to control eight times as many missiles (via the SDACMs in each Apollo SD pod and light speed control links)

No known SLN task force will survive to energy range of the BSDF SDs.

The only real question about the "Battle of Sigma Draconis" is who (and how) will cause the rumored millions of civilian casualties. Is a deliberate EE violation by the SLN? A MAlign sneak attack under cover of the SLN task force? An unfortunate over-shoot of a confrontation between the GA and SLN?

So many possibilities and so little information beyond a rumor of massive civilian casualties.

The only real question about the "Battle of Sigma Draconis" is who (and how) will cause the rumored millions of civilian casualties. Is a deliberate EE violation by the SLN? A MAlign sneak attack under cover of the SLN task force? An unfortunate over-shoot of a confrontation between the GA and SLN?

So many possibilities and so little information beyond a rumor of massive civilian casualties.

Another question is, what else is in the Beowulf system? High amount of civil casulties don´t means, that Beowulf was hit. Has Beowulf a Moon? Are Cities on it? Has Beowulf space stions? Are space stations somewhere else in the system like raffineries at a gas giant? Any other settlements in the system?

You can defend a habitable planet, but defending everything in a star system is much more difficult. So, if the Beowulf navy defend Beowulf, but the sollies are shooting at all other settlements in the system, the sollies could kill a lot of people and could get away with it, means they survive their attack.

If I were the Manticoran CO of the Beowulf Terminus task force, I would send at least a part of my wall short outside the hyper-limit into the alpha-bands in a position as near as possible to the planet of Beowulf - but not in the ecliptic level, where all the main real estate flows through space, but outside the ecliptic. Then I would make a Paul Revere maneuver, as soon as the sollies come calling.

Weird Harold wrote:

Atticus_of_Amber wrote:Beowulf System Defence Force (BSDF) has Apollo capable, system defence 4-stage MDM missile pods in orbit. They also have excellent SDs of their own, with massively redundant fire control, but they aren't SD(P)s and they don't have Keyhole II.

Beowulf should have "Mycroft" up and running before the Plebiscite and any presumed SLN task force arrives. Mycroft is essentially a series of KHII modules with independent power sources and tactical computer support. It is left unclear whether Mycroft will be fully functional before the SLN arrives, the the Apollo SDMs should be sufficient to handle any known SLN task force. Even if Mycroft isn't operational, the 36 scientist-class SDs of the BSDF will be able to control eight times as many missiles (via the SDACMs in each Apollo SD pod and light speed control links)

No known SLN task force will survive to energy range of the BSDF SDs.

The only real question about the "Battle of Sigma Draconis" is who (and how) will cause the rumored millions of civilian casualties. Is a deliberate EE violation by the SLN? A MAlign sneak attack under cover of the SLN task force? An unfortunate over-shoot of a confrontation between the GA and SLN?

So many possibilities and so little information beyond a rumor of massive civilian casualties.

I am not certain any more that there will be an attack on Beowulf. While it sounds interesting, Kingsford is not the moron that Rajanpat was.

He has to know that it will cost heavily. If the ships do get through somehow and wind up causing an Eridani Edict violation, the leaders of the fleet there could wind up on trial by the Grand Alliance and hanged. The top leadership of the League could be tried in absentia as part of that.

What we saw in the snippets is an attack on a nearby unaligned planet. Far safer. If you want a raider policy which deals with small numbers of ships at a time, you will not want a major battle which will probably cost a lot of ships.

Keep in mind that mandarins could not afford another battle where their navy was on the offense and got smashed. And if Beowulf is that target of an EE violation, that would make things far nastier.

Sending several large task forces to home worlds and destroying all space infrastructure would be a reasonable answer.

Eagleeye wrote:If I were the M/*9889fanticoran CO of the Beowulf Terminus task force, I would send at least a part of my wall short outside the hyper-limit into the alpha-bands in a position as near as possible to the planet of Beowulf - but not in the ecliptic level, where all the main real estate flows through space, but outside the ecliptic. Then I would make a Paul Revere maneuver, as soon as the sollies come calling.

It depends on several factors. Just before 2nd BoM, we are told Moriarty will be fully deployed (assumed fully operational) within 6 months, so how soon after Filareta's Folly does BF attack. (2) If you are going to deploy in the Alpha band awaiting Paul Revere, Why not wait until BF crosses the Hyper limit and dropping behind them catching them in the proverbial mousetrap. (3)That gives you redundant fire control channels in the event your Moriarty platforms are not operational. (4) But your deployment in the sigma Draconis system is subject to approval by Beowulf. it is, after all, their system.

ldwechsler wrote:
I am not certain any more that there will be an attack on Beowulf. While it sounds interesting, Kingsford is not the moron that Rajanpat was.

He has to know that it will cost heavily. If the ships do get through somehow and wind up causing an Eridani Edict violation, the leaders of the fleet there could wind up on trial by the Grand Alliance and hanged. The top leadership of the League could be tried in absentia as part of that.

What we saw in the snippets is an attack on a nearby unaligned planet. Far safer. If you want a raider policy which deals with small numbers of ships at a time, you will not want a major battle which will probably cost a lot of ships.

Keep in mind that mandarins could not afford another battle where their navy was on the offense and got smashed. And if Beowulf is that target of an EE violation, that would make things far nastier.

Sending several large task forces to home worlds and destroying all space infrastructure would be a reasonable answer.

David snerked awhile back that there will be an SLN assault on Beowulf - and 10 million civilian causalities. Beyond that it is all speculation.

The assumption is the attack comes before the publicite, as the SLN leadership discussed in one of the last books, but in reality we don't know. Many are also assuming that the MAlign will attempt to make the most of the assault, causing the civilian deaths David mentioned in some way or form. But once again, conjecture.

Eagleeye wrote:If I were the Manticoran CO of the Beowulf Terminus task force, I would send at least a part of my wall short outside the hyper-limit into the alpha-bands in a position as near as possible to the planet of Beowulf - but not in the ecliptic level, where all the main real estate flows through space, but outside the ecliptic. Then I would make a Paul Revere maneuver, as soon as the sollies come calling.

Or just keep a fair number of your ships outside the RZ so they can make a microjump towards Beowulf. With a 4-5 lightminute range on Apollo FTL control-links a reaction force getting scattered making a microjump shouldn't be a big deal. Given the relatively low velocity you can bring in from hyper the SLN shouldn't be able to close on a habitable planet before reaction forces near the terminus can jump in behind them and rain FTL controlled destruction down upon them.

(Though of course, with a ballistic segment, the planet is technically within missile range of Cataphracts as soon as SLN forces drop back into normal space)

Theemile wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:
I am not certain any more that there will be an attack on Beowulf. While it sounds interesting, Kingsford is not the moron that Rajanpat was.

He has to know that it will cost heavily. If the ships do get through somehow and wind up causing an Eridani Edict violation, the leaders of the fleet there could wind up on trial by the Grand Alliance and hanged. The top leadership of the League could be tried in absentia as part of that.

What we saw in the snippets is an attack on a nearby unaligned planet. Far safer. If you want a raider policy which deals with small numbers of ships at a time, you will not want a major battle which will probably cost a lot of ships.

Keep in mind that mandarins could not afford another battle where their navy was on the offense and got smashed. And if Beowulf is that target of an EE violation, that would make things far nastier.

Sending several large task forces to home worlds and destroying all space infrastructure would be a reasonable answer.

David snerked awhile back that there will be an SLN assault on Beowulf - and 10 million civilian causalities. Beyond that it is all speculation.

The assumption is the attack comes before the publicite, as the SLN leadership discussed in one of the last books, but in reality we don't know. Many are also assuming that the MAlign will attempt to make the most of the assault, causing the civilian deaths David mentioned in some way or form. But once again, conjecture.

Not to impugn the chaser of Celery but I would not put it past him to basically be doing a hollywood trailer here and mashing two seperate events together to look dramatic. Did he explicitly state that the casualties were taken at the same time as the assault of just that there would be one and that somthing would cause millions of civilian casualties? My memory of the comment was that he was careful not to explicitly connect the two events.

Silverwall wrote:Not to impugn the chaser of Celery but I would not put it past him to basically be doing a hollywood trailer here and mashing two seperate events together to look dramatic. Did he explicitly state that the casualties were taken at the same time as the assault of just that there would be one and that somthing would cause millions of civilian casualties? My memory of the comment was that he was careful not to explicitly connect the two events.

I haven't seen the comment myself, but readers with memory of the snippets for various Safehold books have ample evidence that RFC can misdirect even with actual snippets. It's much easier with mere comments. Remember Honor's favourite definition of 'surprise'!