Brave New Worlds-Political Changes in the Honorverse

First of all I owe an apology to fallsfromtrees, who started a perfectly good thread on this topic several weeks ago based on a post I made (see here: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6597 ), and which I did not follow through (as you’ll see why, it’s going to be pretty long—probably several posts long, so I’ll wait if you want to go get the beverage of your choice…)

That said, the topic was System Government in the Honorverse after the breakup of the Solarian League. Something like 3,000-4,000 planetary systems will be thrown into chaos as the old order is upset--quite violently, in some cases--and governments scramble to adjust.

I have broken this down into several groups: Verge Systems that are not part of the SL/Transtellars, like Silesia and Erewhon, OFS/Transtellar influenced systems, like Mobius, which are not officially “Protectorates”, but are definitely moving to that status, Protectorates, like Meyers and the systems governed by Verichicco, and the Core/Shell worlds that are full members of the Solarian League. All will have different perspectives and all will be seen differently by the Grand Alliance in how they are treated.

Before I start (and boy, this is going to be long), I am making several assumptions: One is that most systems have a single government, or a very limited number of states, based on all the textev information that we have seen. Second is that governments vary from Monarchy to Republics to Corporate worlds to Oligarchies to Dictatorships (haven’t seen a ‘Communist’ government, but then again, we haven’t seen one on planet Earth to date IMHO…). Third is that most if not all of these governments are capitalist in one form or another (from massively unregulated to ‘buried in paperwork’ regulated styles of capitalism).

But the principle is that the World-State is going to act with one voice (at least at the start) when the economic and political tsunami hits.

OK, with that established (at least for the purposes of this exposition), I’ll begin..in the next post.

Part 1: Out in the Verge. Most of these systems are unknown to us, outside of Silesia and Talbott and our friends in Marsh, and their governments seem (based on Silesia and Talbott textev) to lean toward oligarchies of the rich and powerful, with republics and dictatorships coming in second. They are in general ‘poor’ systems, with little trade and less defense against pirates and raiders. Some may have banded together (ala the Rembrandt Trade Union) to try and improve life/avoid the OFS, but in general they are considered ‘small fry’.

For these worlds, which may indeed make up a majority of the settled worlds in sheer numbers, not much is going to change. The Grand Alliance is most concerned with breaking up the Solarian League, finding and destroying the MAlignment, and taking Protectorate and OFS/Transtellar systems away from their control (more on that in the next part). Those worlds that are not part of that will simply be ignored, even if the Government of that world is horrible, oppressive, and picks its’ nose in public. Not because the GA is inhumane; they just have much bigger fish to fry and limited resources.

There may be an increase in trade, though, since Manty freighters will be looking for new routes and new opportunities and goods that once moved from one Core world to another may now begin being developed out in the Verge.

And word of what is happening in all those other systems that are involved will make it to the Verge, and it wouldn’t surprise me that more than a few ‘rulers for life’ find things getting a bit…nervous. There will be blood and death, but few if any off-planet will ever know about it. Because these worlds simply aren’t part of the revolutionary occurrences taking place ‘inside’ their locations.

Part 2: OFS/Transtellar Dominated Worlds (But not official protectorates). We have seen a couple of them in Shadows of Freedom and Storm from the Shadows (Monica and Mobius to name two), and all of those we have seen tend to be ‘strong-(wo)man’ dominated, who suck at the teat of the Transtellar(s) who have ‘taken over’ the system (President for LIFE Lombroso is a good example) who depend on raw military power and secret police to maintain their hold. And while the OFS/FF is not ‘on-site’, they will come when called by the Transtellars/OFS agents if the ‘proles’ start to act up (see Mobius and Halkirk).

And on a fair number of these Manticore (with Grayson, Haven and Beowulf’s hearty assistance) is going to land with big feet. Mostly thanks to actions by MAlignment agents, per se, but once the word gets around about what happened on Mobius, a lot of systems are going to be...motivated…to make contact and start stockpiling weapons.

Still, these systems are not critical to the GA (the only advantage is in destroying Transtellar assets, which will cause more economic grief in the SL), and systems on the far side of Known Space from the Haven Sector are going to be hard to support, even if the GA knows about them. And based on the principle of ‘You broke it, you own it’, the GA will have to do something to help set up a new government…and we’ve all been learning the past 10 years how easy that is. So the GA will want to limit, as much as possible, what they are doing on this front (in an ironic twist, they may end up doing the same thing the MAlignment has been doing—equipping home-grown rebel forces to do the job themselves).

So revolts in those systems will be home-grown…but the dictators will have to do without OFS/FF support to, which will make these fights more even…and also bloodier and more likely to end up in chaos, without an acknowledged leader of the revolution (see G. Washington or E. Prichard) that can stand above it and bring about a ‘sea change’. In a lot of cases, it will end up in ‘Meet the new Boss; Same as the old Boss’, but with a damaged economy and loss of protection from the SL/Transtellars from would-be conquerors and pirates….and soon people will be wishing for the ‘good old days’.

So some will be happy and a lot will be even less happy, but things will have changed; and the people will know that they can change it…and so will their leaders.

And that is something, at least.

Part 3: The Protectorates. For as important as these are, we haven’t seen much about their governments, except that they answer to a Sector Governor (like Verichicco or Barregos), tend to be dominated by the Transtellars, and are ‘bled’ of their resources/products by said Transtellers (with a nice hefty cut for OFS and the SL bureaucracy) until they are finally (benevolently, of course) let into the SL. The only government we’ve really seen is on Meyers, and Mike Henke admits that having a ruling king in-place was a rarity among the Protectorates. This indicates to me that most of the systems are like the above non-Protectorate worlds, with one central power propped up by the threat of the OFS/FF actions. And once the OFS/FF goes away….

This is where the GA will hit and hit hard (as Mike is doing in Meyers). This, by denying the “fees” paid by the Protectorates to the SL along with the denial of wormholes (and the trade tariffs), they can pretty much bankrupt the SL bureaucracy by denying them their two major sources of income. And trying to replace it by imposing taxes on the Core and Shell worlds will be….unpopular.

Still, the GA had better be ready to deploy every diplomat they have available (and hope there are a few Dominic Flandrys’ and Jame Retiefs’ among them, along with the Medusas’ and others), because once the Emperor is shown to have no clothes, and a Manty warship is overhead, things are likely to get..ugly..very fast.
And perhaps even worse than in those systems that had organized resistance movements like Mobius. Because everyone there know you couldn’t fight the SL, so best make do as best you can and hope that your planet gets to join the League before your children are old. And now, without warning, there is no OFS, there is no FF, and there may soon be no SL. Things are going to be confused, to say the least.

So as much as you need troops, you’re going to need diplomats that can help build a new government out of basically…nothing. And we’ve all seen how well that can turn out (and sometimes it may turn out well, see Japan post-WWII).

Going to be some very interesting times out in the Protectorates.

*Note—Dominic Flandry was a character created by Poul Anderson. Imagine a cross between Roger Moore as James Bond and Victor Chacat. Jame Retief was a character created by Keith Laumer. This is what Ginny and Kevin Usher’s son (when they got around to procreating) is going to be like. IMHO

Part 4: The Shell and the Core: For the purposes of this exposition, I’m grouping them together as the ‘voting’ members of the SL, but there may be different reactions from them.

We probably know less about their governments than any of the other systems, since what we have seen the most is the actions of the Mandarins, not the individual governments. We do know that they are, in general, wealthy and technologically advanced worlds and if the MAlignment Renaissance Factor worlds are members, then they are a mixed bag of Republics, Kingdoms, and Directorates, but apparently few outright dictatorships (sure, just a few families may pass the torch among themselves, but it still is a matter to be put to the vote). We do know that they have a lot of autonomy within the SL, most do not have appreciable SDF’s, and that their allegiance to the SL is mostly due to the fact that it has kept the peace (and been good for business) for all these centuries. So they like it, but are they willing to suffer and die for it?

Now, that question is being asked. First the defeats of the ISLN are going to start coming home, as the GA goes on the offensive, and the systems economies start to take substantial punishment from Lacoon I and II. Panic is going to start building as it becomes obvious that the SL Government can do nothing to help them and systems will begin casting around for a solution—remember, these systems have been at peace for centuries; going to a war footing with the costs both human and economic is likely to terrify them.

And then the GA offers them a deal; keep your governments as they are, withdraw from the SL actions against us, and we’ll support you with trade agreements, open your ports to our freighters again, and even encourage you to join with those 7-8 other systems near you to form a ‘New Republic/Federation/Confederation/Empire/Cabal/etc.’ for mutual protection and economic growth.

That is likely to be a very popular option opposite one that will require heavy taxation and a societal change to a war footing. Especially if most of BF is glowing wreckage by that time.

Now some systems will resist out of either loyalty to the SL or a stubborn refusal to see that things are changing; others (for reasons that seem good to them) will vacillate or suffer sudden changes in government (mostly peaceful...but not all). But I think most, given the chance to keep their governments as is and to ‘put the whole thing behind them’ with as little violence as possible, will leap at the opportunity and will separate, in one form or another, from the SL.

What those newly independent governments do could prove…interesting, especially those with a significant SDF and some long-standing grudges against their neighbors. But overall, there will be, perhaps ironically, less bloodshed and upheaval in the Core and Shell than in the Protectorates and the Verge—because lawful and recognized governments will remain lawful and recognized governments.

So, in summary, it’s going to be a very interesting galaxy for the next 20 years. There will be blood, toil, tears, and sweat aplenty, and not every world will have a happy ending.

But it will be a very different place, one way or another.

Apologies for being this long-winded, but this one has been in my head for quite some time and I finally got around to typing it out.

IMHO as always. YMMV

Great posts. Going to respond to the Mobius/Saltash style worlds be there Protectorate/Verge whatever.

Henke's already pretty much said "we got the big boots, and you're not going to lay carnage at my kingdom's doorstep". So folks like Zavala and Terekhov are likely going to be rather busy, but the announcement will be something on the order of:

"y'all don't really want to piss Me (the UNREASONABLE NEOBARB in command of the ships that just took your high orbitals) off. Put down ALL your weapons and get along. Don't make me come down there and knock heads!!" followed by "we'll help but you have to make this work yourselves."

Thing is, the so-called "nation building difficulty" is in areas that weren't governed effectively to begin with, even totalitarian regime wise. Areas dominated by sectarian divisioons and warlordism that have proven nearly impossible to amend/build effective governance because there is a multigenerational bias towards "my tribe will win, "silver or lead, take your choice" cultural way of thinking.

Look at Eastern Europe back in the late '80's, early 90'sfor example: most of those countries transitioned to at least decent governance and a much higher level of freedom/human rights in < 2 yrs. Or the transition from apartheid in S.Africa. Not perfect, but not carnage either.

That's what the GA is after. With stability, they'll likely make a good deal to drop in enough LAC & trade support to keep those systems afloat and start forming them into cooperative entities on system wide or an area wide basis for ease of communication, mutual assist(s), etc.

Hutch wrote:Part 1: Out in the Verge. ...

You're forgetting that Haven, Manticore, Grayson, Erewhon, the Anderman Empire, Phoenix Cluster, Jewish League, Matapan, and various others are also technically part of "The Verge."

I suppose those relatively stable polities could be considered as a separate class of systems; the effects of a League break-up are going to depend on how enmeshed with the League economy they are. Their economies are going to get at least a modest boost from increased income for their merchant ships, but that may be offset by losses in League markets as the league economy tanks.

For the most part, I would expect those outside of the "Haven Sector" to soldier on without much political turmoil.

Really, the same can be said for most of "The Verge" where it might be decades before they even hear that the League is in trouble. Only those systems in what can truly be described as a "verge" -- systems close to the frontiers of the Solarian League with semi-regular contact with the League -- will be affected in any real way.

Weird Harold wrote:

Hutch wrote:Part 1: Out in the Verge. ...

You're forgetting that Haven, Manticore, Grayson, Erewhon, the Anderman Empire, Phoenix Cluster, Jewish League, Matapan, and various others are also technically part of "The Verge."

I suppose those relatively stable polities could be considered as a separate class of systems; the effects of a League break-up are going to depend on how enmeshed with the League economy they are. Their economies are going to get at least a modest boost from increased income for their merchant ships, but that may be offset by losses in League markets as the league economy tanks.

For the most part, I would expect those outside of the "Haven Sector" to soldier on without much political turmoil.

Really, the same can be said for most of "The Verge" where it might be decades before they even hear that the League is in trouble. Only those systems in what can truly be described as a "verge" -- systems close to the frontiers of the Solarian League with semi-regular contact with the League -- will be affected in any real way.

A. It is the Judean League, not Jewish League.
B. We are not sure where it is, but I seem to feel that it is part of the SL.
C. As per RFC, there really are no other areas outside of the SL that are like the Heave Quadrent. Everywhere else is more or less like Talbott.

crewdude48 wrote:A. It is the Judean League, not Jewish League.

Thanks for the correction.

crewdude48 wrote:B. We are not sure where it is, but I seem to feel that it is part of the SL.

I get the opposite impression; I've pictured the Judean League as "Israel In Space," an isolationist preserve separate from any other political loyalty.

crewdude48 wrote:C. As per RFC, there really are no other areas outside of the SL that are like the Heave Quadrent. Everywhere else is more or less like Talbott.

The Haven Sector is ill defined, but I'm almost certain that it doesn't include Silesia, The Anderman Empire, The Phoenix Cluster, or Matapan. Those areas are clearly NOT like the "Haven Sector" but they are identified as multi-system star nations which puts them a step above single-star "verge" systems. They should have enough political stability to ride out the demise of the league unless they're too closely tied to the league economy.

Weird Harold wrote:

crewdude48 wrote:B. We are not sure where it is, but I seem to feel that it is part of the SL.

I get the opposite impression; I've pictured the Judean League as "Israel In Space," an isolationist preserve separate from any other political loyalty.

I'm almost certain there's Word of God (aka RFC) that the Judean League members are part of the Solarian League (pending the collapse of said league).

Weird Harold wrote:The Haven Sector is ill defined, but I'm almost certain that it doesn't include Silesia, The Anderman Empire, The Phoenix Cluster, or Matapan. Those areas are clearly NOT like the "Haven Sector" but they are identified as multi-system star nations which puts them a step above single-star "verge" systems. They should have enough political stability to ride out the demise of the league unless they're too closely tied to the league economy.

It certainly does include the Andermani Empire and Silesia. And the other areas you mentioned are linked by wormhole junction to Manticore.