Plus the last thread was pre-Cauldron of Ghosts, so we know a lot more about Houdini and conditions in Mesa.
A couple of points to kick off, then we'll see where the thread goes from there (maybe in the crapper, you never know, but hopefully with some energetic discussions).
Point the First: Where's Mikes ships? We know from textev in Shadows of Freedom that she had 28 SD's and/or CLACs with her at Meyers and that her intention was to take them all (along with Oversteengen's BC's) to Mesa.
We also know from textev in Cauldron of Ghosts that:
The conference room door flew open, and heads snapped around at the unceremonious, unexpected, and unacceptable interruption.
“What’s the mean—” Brandon Ward began thunderously.
“I’m sorry, Sir!” his senior aide cut him off. “I’m sorry, but…but this is—”
She slithered to a stop, as if groping for words, and Ward’s frown turned even darker.
“What the hell are you talking about, Andrea?!” he snapped.
“Sir, Perimeter Tracking just reported a hyper footprint. A big hyper footprint—at least a dozen ships-of-the-wall!"
Bold and italics mine. Now an accurate count might be too much to ask, but missing by 250%? Mesa's tracking has to be better than that, given the enemies it has. So where's the rest of them?
My guess is that they are currently footprinting close to the Mesa-Visgoth wormhole and taking the necessary actions to close that wormhole (and maybe send a dispatch boat through to Beowulf-Manticore telling them they have arrived in Mesa). It is the quickest way of getting the news home (about a week, IIRC). Other guesses are welcome--ignored by me, but welcome....
Point the Second: What of the Mesan Navy? We know from various textev that it is not a very large force (the largest ship we've seen is a BC) and not well-considered as a well-run or formidable SDF. And Mike Henke is leading the most capable warships (that anyone knows of right at this moment) ever built, so they don't stand a chance opposing her...
Still and yet, they are citizens of Mesa, it is their homeworld, and I suppose for many of them they do love it, and they are seeing what can only be considered an invading (and conquering) force approaching--combined with the reports from the actions of Cauldron of Ghosts, it wouldn't be surprising if the MSN (and many Mesans, for that part), see this as a coordinated attack on their system by the dastardly Manties, aided and abetted by the Ballroom planet Torch and those unmitigated bastards of Beowulf.
So will they fight--and die--to the last ship or will sanity rule and they surrender/scuttle their ships as happened in Mobius?
Truth to tell, I have an opinion on it, but I'll leave it for later.
Interesting times...