Speculating on the GA-MAlign Conflict

Just some comments about the GA vs MAlign conflict. I want to stress that for the moment this is primarily an intelligence war. The MAlign wants to remain hidden; the GA wants the Alignment exposed and located for destruction. The Manities in particular haven't forgotten Oyster Bay.

I see the drama in the next few books focusing around that drama with what happens to the League being a bit more secondary.

As a consequence, I see Anton and Victor assuming more central roles as they seek to flesh out what the Alignment seeks to hide. We could have spies, counter spies and all sorts of excitement around that theme. Will Darius be discovered? Maybe, but probably more toward the end of the story.

I suspect that there will be more intelligence gained out of Mesa than we knew about at the end of Caldron of Ghosts. But it will probably pose as many questions as it answers.

How hard will it be to identify the members of the RF? Will being able to do that produce any progress in exposing the Alignment?

So where do you believe our noble author is taking us? Feel free to speculate away...

Don

n7axw wrote:
How hard will it be to identify the members of the RF? Will being able to do that produce any progress in exposing the Alignment?



Don

Very hard I would say. Once the League breaks up their are going to be a lot of worlds seeking to form alliances. Picking out the RF ones from the rest will be incredibly difficult unless they do something stupid which I find unlikely. And even if the GA does ID them what can it do? Launching unprovoked attacks on worlds because you claim they are part of some ancient conspiracy linked to Mesa when a key point of the RF is, openly at least, to have as little to do with Mesa or its corporate allies as possible will just convince the non-GA worlds and alliances that the GA is out to conquer all of humanity and unite them against it.

Intelligence will definitely be important considering the Alliance doesn't even know where the Alignment is. Once they begin to assimilate what's left in Mesa after Tenth Fleet's arrival they're going to realize that what was there to begin with is mostly gone (thanks to Houdini).

At this point, I don't believe the Alliance has any idea about the existence of Darius. Just that the ships that attacked Manticore and Grayson used some sort of new propulsion system and there's no evidence of them being built and stationed in the Mesa System. I imagine they (i.e. Cachat and Zilwicki) will be working overtime trying to figure out where the main Alignment HQ is. I don't think there's been any attention on the Torch wormhole since Harvest Joy transited and was destroyed (although how she was destroyed is unknown to the Alliance). Unless some evidence left behind on Mesa (or possibly captured Houdini personnel) point toward the wormhole it will be very difficult for the Alliance to find Darius and the "secret" shipyard of the MAlign.

Amaroq wrote:Intelligence will definitely be important considering the Alliance doesn't even know where the Alignment is. Once they begin to assimilate what's left in Mesa after Tenth Fleet's arrival they're going to realize that what was there to begin with is mostly gone (thanks to Houdini).

At this point, I don't believe the Alliance has any idea about the existence of Darius. Just that the ships that attacked Manticore and Grayson used some sort of new propulsion system and there's no evidence of them being built and stationed in the Mesa System. I imagine they (i.e. Cachat and Zilwicki) will be working overtime trying to figure out where the main Alignment HQ is. I don't think there's been any attention on the Torch wormhole since Harvest Joy transited and was destroyed (although how she was destroyed is unknown to the Alliance). Unless some evidence left behind on Mesa (or possibly captured Houdini personnel) point toward the wormhole it will be very difficult for the Alliance to find Darius and the "secret" shipyard of the MAlign.

I like to offer a friendly amendment here. They do know there has to be a bolthole (alias Darius). Those streak and spider drive ships have to have come from somewhere and they know that Mesa couldn't have produced them. Knowing that it's out there is a major part of finding it.

Don

n7axw wrote:How hard will it be to identify the members of the RF? Will being able to do that produce any progress in exposing the Alignment?

No, it will not be hard to Identify members of the Renaissance Factor -- that is intended to be the public face and name of the new star nation.

Identifying the Renaissance Factor as the public face of the Mesan Alignment will be much more difficult because their public policies and behavior are going to be as anti-slavery, anti-Mesa, anti-everything the MAlign stands for with only the very top layers of government aware of the connection to the MAlign.

The primary opposition to MAlign aims as far as the RF is concerned is going to be inadvertent. The Harrington Doctrine is going to suppress a large part of the chaos and turmoil that the RF is relying on to drive new members into the fold. That's going to limit the growth of the RF and extend their century-long plan to a millennia or so.

By that time, Manticore or the Andermani should have found and neutralized Darius and finally made the connection and be able to stifle the plan from that end.

On a smaller scale, I predict as a blind guess that Detweiler's cyborg or whatever bodyguard with have a close encounter of the decedential kind, perhaps with Helen Zilwicki or father, more likely with General Palane.

There was already a thread speculating on being able to identify the RF by finding out which planets are being run by Malign alpha lines. With GA holding Mesa identifying genetic markers ought to be a lot easier. While it likely won't be enough to justify pre-emptive strikes it will tell GA who to watch and interfere with.

Not to mention publishing interesting academic articles on Mesan genetics and distribution.

Houdini analysis could also lead to reports on MAlign personnel policies on dangerous but non-Alpha hirelings. Hints about Sepoy rebellions have been plentiful.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:How hard will it be to identify the members of the RF? Will being able to do that produce any progress in exposing the Alignment?

No, it will not be hard to Identify members of the Renaissance Factor -- that is intended to be the public face and name of the new star nation.

Identifying the Renaissance Factor as the public face of the Mesan Alignment will be much more difficult because their public policies and behavior are going to be as anti-slavery, anti-Mesa, anti-everything the MAlign stands for with only the very top layers of government aware of the connection to the MAlign.

m4swanson wrote:There was already a thread speculating on being able to identify the RF by finding out which planets are being run by Malign alpha lines. With GA holding Mesa identifying genetic markers ought to be a lot easier. While it likely won't be enough to justify pre-emptive strikes it will tell GA who to watch and interfere with.

Not to mention publishing interesting academic articles on Mesan genetics and distribution.

Since not everyone with MAlign genetics is a sleeper agent, knowing the MAlign genotype would just engender pointless discrimination; in effect, turning MAlign hunters into MAlign clones.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:How hard will it be to identify the members of the RF? Will being able to do that produce any progress in exposing the Alignment?

No, it will not be hard to Identify members of the Renaissance Factor -- that is intended to be the public face and name of the new star nation.

Identifying the Renaissance Factor as the public face of the Mesan Alignment will be much more difficult because their public policies and behavior are going to be as anti-slavery, anti-Mesa, anti-everything the MAlign stands for with only the very top layers of government aware of the connection to the MAlign.

The primary opposition to MAlign aims as far as the RF is concerned is going to be inadvertent. The Harrington Doctrine is going to suppress a large part of the chaos and turmoil that the RF is relying on to drive new members into the fold. That's going to limit the growth of the RF and extend their century-long plan to a millennia or so.

By that time, Manticore or the Andermani should have found and neutralized Darius and finally made the connection and be able to stifle the plan from that end.

Hi Harold,

These are good thoughts. We know that the Alignment thinks long term, over a period of centuries. But did their meddling to bring Manticore and the League into confrontation along with Oyster Bay and Cachat/Zilwicki revelations send Alignment timeline spinning out of control? Instead of extending the situation out longer, I can see things compressing and happening a lot quicker. Unpeeling the union will be very difficult, but not impossible.

Don

Darius being found is inevitable, it's necessary for the story to continue (assuming the good guys win). How, when isn't so clear; it depends on the pace of the story.

If I were the Malign, I'd sacrifice Darius ASAP, though. I'd let the Manticorans find it, preferably after I'm sure that the Renaissance Factor has managed to turn itself into one of humanity's great star nations (which, frankly, it should manage without great difficulty).

Once that is done, Darius isn't important anymore. It's just not. You can get Mesa's end goal - a reconsideration of the acceptability of genetic engineering - within the RF. With the RF as one of humanity's great states, a slow and steady reconsidering of that particular moral prohibition would be easy enough to pursue over time. It would be slow and take generations, and generations are long affairs now, but it's not hard by any means to accomplish.