runsforceledy wrote:Okay, since spoilers have already crept into the thread (I think the thread name should probably be sufficient warning for people who don't like them), allow me to point out a view things. I'm sort of free associating here, so my points probably aren't going to be in any special order.
(1) At the moment, the Grand Alliance has the only modern wall of battle in the galaxy. It has literally hundreds of SD(P)s and scores of CLACs. The only bigger navy in the galaxy has been pretty completely destroyed. Frontier Fleet still exists, but the biggest and nastiest ships it has are totally obsolete battlecruisers. The Battle Fleet Reserve is suitable for nothing but scrap. The same is true of every active Solarian ship-of-the-wall as of the end of the war.
(2) The galaxy just got a whole lot less predictable. Sort of like happens when the Warsaw Pact disintegrated and the Soviet Union turned into the Russian Federation, the balance of power which had been a fundamental part of interstellar diplomatic and commercial calculations has gone belly up. The Solarian League is still the biggest kid on the block; but the Solarian League no longer controls the Protectorates, and it won't be controlling the Protectorates again. It's going to start shedding systems in the Shell, too, I assure you. So there are going to be whole
bunch is of independent star systems, each with its own set of political and economic objectives, and each worried about people trying to prey upon it militarily and/or looking around for someone
it can prey upon. In essence, the entire Fringe has just become Silesia, in a lot of respects.
(3) I don't recall anyone saying that bonded cargo carriers didn't forfeit their bonds when Manticore called them home under Lacoön. In fact, they did, which is one reason they took such an economic hit. So although there are going to be a lot of disgruntled Solarian ship owners, none of them who were dealing with bonded carriers (which is pretty much everyone when you're talking about cargoes in the millions of tons) is currently uncompensated. If cargoes simply weren't picked up, then there are penalties built into the contracts, and those may be a case for litigation after the war if the Manticoran carrier is going to argue that it was an act of war before the war was actively declared. It's going to be awful hard to get any interstellar admiralty court to say that it wasn't during "time of war" given the Solarian League's unilateral military actions, however.
(4) The Star Empire of Manticore most certainly is
not going to start hiking the Junction transit fees. First, that would be really, really bad from a political perspective. By leaving the fee schedules where they were prewar for
Solarian shipping, they demonstrate a restraint that any thinking Solarian knows perfectly well OFS
wouldn't have demonstrated if it had succeeded in taking over the Junction. Second, the revenue stream being generated by the Junction, especially with Talbott added to the equation and the high probability of mutual defense/usage treaties with several of the newly independent star systems who happen to have wormhole termini in their stellar backyards, is enormous. It always has been, which is the main reason the Star Empire's taxes were so low. They do have a lot of debt to pay down, especially after the damages of Oyster Bay, however they've already more than paid their way with their allies in the form of the new tech they've made available. I am sure that Elizabeth, who has very good diplomatic smarts when she isn't hating on a star nation that, oh, murdered her father, her uncle, her cousin, her prime minister, etc., is well aware of the need to not "sponge off" Haven, and of her obligations to Grayson, and she will most definitely meet them.
(5) Given that there is no longer any conceivable credible military threat (aside from the possibility of "stealth attacks") that the Grand Alliance — or, for that matter, the Star Empire
or Haven, acting in isolation — couldn't swat like a bug, and that there
is going to be a lot of proto-Silesia space out there, nobody in the universe understands better than Manticore that the force mix it was forced to build in a war for its existence is
not the one that it's going to need in the postwar period. It's going to need more cruising vessels, it's going to need more light squadrons, etc., and it's going to need
a lot less wallers. So that's the fleet mix it's going to reach for. That doesn't mean it won't have a wall of battle; it simply means that the wall of battle it will have will be ample to deal with any
known threat while the emphasis on new construction is going to be focused on actual post war
needs, not postwar paranoid "wish lists." If anyone thinks that Manticoran intelligence organizations are going to go to sleep and not keep a real, real,
real close eye on potential emerging threats, I have a bridge I want to sell you. And if anyone thinks that queen Elizabeth (or, for that matter, if anything happened to her, Crown prince Roger) isn't going to be thinking in terms of safety margins against known or emerging threats (you do remember what King Roger's response to an "emerging threat" was, I trust?), I have some bottomland I want to sell you. Just don't ask me which ocean it's on the bottom of. So, yes, the RMN is going to be "building down" at least in terms of capital ships, but it is most definitely not going to go to sleep at the switch.
(6) Speaking of watching out for emerging threats, I trust that no one thinks that Elizabeth or Eloise Pritchart are going to simply forget about the Alignment? There's no point in building a mammoth fleet that you can't point at your enemy, and the Grand Alliance recognizes that — as Hamish Alexander pointed out to Elizabeth in the immediate aftermath of Oyster Bay — that whatever else the Alignment may be and have,
at this time it clearly doesn't have a massive fleet of stealth vessels. If it had had them at the time of Oyster Bay, then Oyster Bay would've been launched in greater strength. If it had them as of Operation Nemesis, it wouldn't have had to count on getting bombs aboard the Beowulf habitats. And I promise that the Four Musketeers are going to go right on looking very hard with all of the support that both Eloise and Elizabeth can provide.
(7) One reason that the RMN and the PRN and the GSN aren't going to be building bunches of new capital ships anytime real soon is that Tom Theisman's "congress of geeks" in Bolthole is going to be busy synthesizing current level Alliance technology with all the goodies honor brought home from Naval Station Ganymede. I believe that one may safely assume that new and much improved iterations of current technology — and possibly even some new departures — will emerge from that. Certainly, the Grand Alliance is expecting there to be changes, which is one reason they're going to be cautious about buying additional current-generation platforms. They've got oodles of legacy platforms; if new stuff becomes available, then they need to be building new
platforms optimized to use it. They
don't need to have built a bunch of platforms that are poorly suited to the new stuff.
(8) Someone mentioned that the Alignment should be working on assassinating Elizabeth and/or Eloise. Excuse me a moment.
D'oh! I assure you, that the Alignment is thinking about it and looking for ways to do it and Palace Security, the Empress's Own, the Protector's Guard, and a whole passel of treecats are looking for ways to
prevent it. Unless the Alignment wants to come out into the open with something like a big, nasty bomb — or yet another "stealth fleet" attack — then going to have to work through what you might call "normal" channels, although their nanotech gives them a few
abnormal advantages. On the other hand, there are the treecats. And if they do use a big, nasty bomb or another "stealth fleet" attack, then they are going to underline, punctuate, and italicize the fact that there really is
an "Alignment" out there, whether the Manties and Havenites have correctly identified it or not. From the Alignment's perspective, this would be A Bad Thing™, and they already had a rather pointed lesson in letting emotional pain dictate strategic decisions in the form of Operation Nemesis.
(9) Apropos Operation Nemesis. Some people have been saying that, in effect, the Grand Alliance did exactly what the Alignment wanted to accomplish. The truth is, however, that it both did and it didn't, with emphasis on the latter. Yes, there are going to be a lot of opportunities in the Fringe and the Shell that can be picked up on by someone like the Renaissance Factor, and that's a good thing from the Alignment's perspective. However, the Solarian League will still be in existence and really 90% or more intact in terms of population and probably 85% intact in terms of economic muscle, which means that the possibility of executing a hostile takeover against the League's fragmented remains is not very high. I'm not saying that the Alignment's objectives have gone totally unmet; I'm saying that what happened wasn't the outcome they really wanted. Please note also that I'm not saying that the outcome they got wasn't one that their models hadn't predicted as at least one possible outcome, so I think you can assume that they have plans in place to proceed from where they are now.
(10) About the notion of "parity" between the Royal Manticoran Navy and the Peoples Navy. People, the RMN
already has parity with the RHN. And the RHN is going to be much more drastically downsized than the RMN, proportionately, for a lot of reasons. Including the fact that both Eloise Pritchart and Thomas Theisman recognize that while the
RMN has been respected and trusted by the majority of the galaxy for the last two or three centuries, the
RHN, as the inheritor of the
Peoples Navy has a much less savory reputation. So, like the RMN, the RHN is going to be building ships intended for police service and being very careful
not to build up a fleet which is obviously suitable for going a-conquering again, if someone with less of a moral sense than Eloise or Tom winds up in charge of it.
(11) The Star Empire of Manticore and its merchant marine is going to come out of the war against the Solarian League in
very good shape. Yes, quite a few of the smaller shipping lines in Manticore will have gone belly up, despite government assistance, in the wake of Operation Lacoön and its fiscal consequences. The lines which survived — and probably quite a lot of new lines, started up with merchantships that can be snapped up cheap — are going to expand like crazy, however. All of the astrogational advantages the Star Kingdom has enjoyed ever since the Junction was opened are still there, and have been in fact multiplied by the additional influence that Manticore has acquired with the other hyper bridges of the galaxy. Manticore doesn't have to raise its transit fees vis-à-vis Solarian or independent shipping in order to enjoy those advantages, either. All it has to do is to
discount transit fees for its own shipping and that of its allies and closest trade partners. The result is going to be to once again exert that financial pressure in favor of shipping in Manticore and bottoms because of what it means for your cargo's bottom line. And all of the factors which conspired to make Manticore the Zürich-New York-London on steroids of the Honorverse's financial networks will still be there, as well. Manticore may be way out on the fringe of the explored galaxy, but because of the Junction and the hyper bridges, it is still the logical — indeed, the
inevitable — hub of major financial markets, and that is only going to increase with the number of unilateral and multilateral trading relationships/treaties which are going to come Manticore's way with the collapse of the Protectorates. It is probable that Manticore will not again acquire the completely dominating position that it once had in terms of the Solarian carrying trade, but the
reason it won't is that the revamped League is going to subsidize its own merchant shipping in order to avoid that outcome. In the long-term, Manticore can probably afford to sit back and simply be patient about that, because eventually — and probably not all that far in the future — the immediate memories of Lacoön will begin to fade, the League's federal government will look for places it can cut spending, and the subsidy program will be wound down with the comfortable conclusion that the League has built up a sufficient backlog freighters to protect it against a similar strategy in the future. At which point, as the merchant marine inevitably continues to grow, Manticore's percentage of the total carrying trade will once again begin expanding vis-à-vis League-flagged carriers.
And I suppose that's enough to go on with for now.