The Two General's Problem

penny wrote:I wonder if a self destruct button to destroy the pods and the g-torps was part of the plan. And whether a streak boat was waiting in hyper to beat the Case Zulu to Manticore.

A streak boat waiting in hyper (presumably near Grayson) would have no idea the Case Zulu had to been sent unless one of the Ghosts came and told it. And I'd assume the Ghosts themselves would be equipped with Streak drives...

Though I guess using a Streak drive dispatch boat would still have a couple benefits. It's higher acceleration would shave about 20 hours off the trip compared to a spider ship; and it would arouse less suspicion if it showed up near the Manticoran hyper limit. (Because if you're bringing the message you don't have time to sneak in a light-month out, so you will be seen and you wouldn't want a spider ship like a Ghost to be seen.

Still, I tend to doubt they had methods of communicating between the branches of the attack. The odds are very high that either they wouldn't be needed, or couldn't get there in time. And arranging so the Ghosts, Sharks, or even the ballistic torps & pods could all get an abort message would actually seem to make the mission more complicated and make it easier for something to go wrong

penny wrote:The time of the attack probably couldn't be altered, but the attack itself probably could have been aborted by a self destruct button. Why show your strategic hand if it telegraphs your intentions and can possibly blow the most important part of the operation. ALL of the wedges and sidewalls would have been active at Manticore in the event that the Yeltsin component telegraphed an infrastructure attack. We know the close call had to be an event outside that week window, since Sung was worried about blowing Oyster Bay. And what I think was meant by blowing Oyster Bay is in failing to destroy the new ships plus failing to destroy Manticore's building capacity. Both of which would fail if the strategic objectives of the attack had been revealed at Grayson.

I wonder if a self destruct button to destroy the pods and the g-torps was part of the plan. And whether a streak boat was waiting in hyper to beat the Case Zulu to Manticore.

The "most important part of the operation" was stopping the deployment of Apollo (see Detweiler's comments) and if the attack is called off, then Apollo cannot be stopped. The orbitals simply cannot sit for weeks with their sidewalls up. Discovering a stealthy scout does not, by itself, reveal the strategic objectives nor the timing.

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:I wonder if a self destruct button to destroy the pods and the g-torps was part of the plan. And whether a streak boat was waiting in hyper to beat the Case Zulu to Manticore.

A streak boat waiting in hyper (presumably near Grayson) would have no idea the Case Zulu had to been sent unless one of the Ghosts came and told it. And I'd assume the Ghosts themselves would be equipped with Streak drives...

Though I guess using a Streak drive dispatch boat would still have a couple benefits. It's higher acceleration would shave about 20 hours off the trip compared to a spider ship; and it would arouse less suspicion if it showed up near the Manticoran hyper limit. (Because if you're bringing the message you don't have time to sneak in a light-month out, so you will be seen and you wouldn't want a spider ship like a Ghost to be seen.

Still, I tend to doubt they had methods of communicating between the branches of the attack. The odds are very high that either they wouldn't be needed, or couldn't get there in time. And arranging so the Ghosts, Sharks, or even the ballistic torps & pods could all get an abort message would actually seem to make the mission more complicated and make it easier for something to go wrong

I dunno if I can accept that. You might be correct, but I am just not ready to board that bus. The MA is very paranoid. And paranoia is accompanied by thoroughness. Although the operational tempo was increased, the plan was thorough. Plus, the quote I included upstream testifies that they had previously discussed the demon Murphy showing up. In fact, they had discussed Murphy in all manners of every plan.

MoH wrote: In fact, both Sung’s orders and every pre-op briefing had stressed that concern, yet he doubted his superiors would look kindly on the Man who blew Oyster Bay. whatever the circumstances.

That concern is Murphy showing up. I can't accept that there would not have been contingencies made or discussed, since Murphy was discussed at length.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:The time of the attack probably couldn't be altered, but the attack itself probably could have been aborted by a self destruct button. Why show your strategic hand if it telegraphs your intentions and can possibly blow the most important part of the operation. ALL of the wedges and sidewalls would have been active at Manticore in the event that the Yeltsin component telegraphed an infrastructure attack. We know the close call had to be an event outside that week window, since Sung was worried about blowing Oyster Bay. And what I think was meant by blowing Oyster Bay is in failing to destroy the new ships plus failing to destroy Manticore's building capacity. Both of which would fail if the strategic objectives of the attack had been revealed at Grayson.

I wonder if a self destruct button to destroy the pods and the g-torps was part of the plan. And whether a streak boat was waiting in hyper to beat the Case Zulu to Manticore.

The "most important part of the operation" was stopping the deployment of Apollo (see Detweiler's comments) and if the attack is called off, then Apollo cannot be stopped. The orbitals simply cannot sit for weeks with their sidewalls up. Discovering a stealthy scout does not, by itself, reveal the strategic objectives nor the timing.

But there might have been other methods put in place to blunt or stop the attack. The entire Home Fleet and every tug in the system could have been tasked to protect the infrastructure with wedges up.

The plan to attack infrastructure would have been figured out if discovering the Scouts had made the GSN search every inch of the system and they had discovered the pods and g-torps. That would have ended the entire operation. And if it caused the MBS to be flooded with drones and ships and every manner of radar and the RMN had found the gtorps and acquired one of them? I can't accept that the pods and torps couldn't be aborted, since they could have been discovered.

Well, since Rung was part of the many discussions about Murphy and he was concerned about blowing the operation, then I think the chances are very high that I might be right; or getting very warm as we used to say as kids.

Regardless of how low the chances are of acquiring a g-torp if they had been spotted, what are the chances that in the HV there might be high tech equipment that can deactivate a bomb/missile? Perhaps even in remote fashion given the low accel of torps if they are accelerating. But if they are simply loitering?

Pardon my triple ripple.

penny wrote:Regardless of how low the chances are of acquiring a g-torp if they had been spotted, what are the chances that in the HV there might be high tech equipment that can deactivate a bomb/missile? Perhaps even in remote fashion given the low accel of torps if they are accelerating. But if they are simply loitering?

Nothing was loitering, the odds of deactivating something that had never been seen before is infinitesimal, Everything is made with anti-tamper safeguards.

penny wrote:But there might have been other methods put in place to blunt or stop the attack. The entire Home Fleet and every tug in the system could have been tasked to protect the infrastructure with wedges up.

The plan to attack infrastructure would have been figured out if discovering the Scouts had made the GSN search every inch of the system and they had discovered the pods and g-torps. That would have ended the entire operation. And if it caused the MBS to be flooded with drones and ships and every manner of radar and the RMN had found the gtorps and acquired one of them? I can't accept that the pods and torps couldn't be aborted, since they could have been discovered.

Well, since Rung was part of the many discussions about Murphy and he was concerned about blowing the operation, then I think the chances are very high that I might be right; or getting very warm as we used to say as kids.

Believe whatever you want, including how warm you might be. The Malign bought into a one-time lottery trying to stop Apollo, the only way that there was zero chance that it would succeed would be if they aborted the mission. Everything blows up on use anyway. They got good use out of the graser-head, until Galton, now the GA does have the secret.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:But there might have been other methods put in place to blunt or stop the attack. The entire Home Fleet and every tug in the system could have been tasked to protect the infrastructure with wedges up.

The plan to attack infrastructure would have been figured out if discovering the Scouts had made the GSN search every inch of the system and they had discovered the pods and g-torps. That would have ended the entire operation. And if it caused the MBS to be flooded with drones and ships and every manner of radar and the RMN had found the gtorps and acquired one of them? I can't accept that the pods and torps couldn't be aborted, since they could have been discovered.

Well, since Sung was part of the many discussions about Murphy and he was concerned about blowing the operation, then I think the chances are very high that I might be right; or getting very warm as we used to say as kids.

Believe whatever you want, including how warm you might be. The Malign bought into a one-time lottery trying to stop Apollo, the only way that there was zero chance that it would succeed would be if they aborted the mission. Everything blows up on use anyway. They got good use out of the graser-head, until Galton, now the GA does have the secret.

It does not matter what I believe. Commander Roderick Sung sat in on all of the discussions and briefings; and he seemed to be certain that the entire operation could be blown. We can argue over our personal interpretation of 'blown' but I'd say it would have to include failing to achieve the main objective(s).

Sung was worried about blowing Oyster Bay; not just one leg of Oyster Bay or Oysters served up on the half shell.

penny wrote:It does not matter what I believe. Commander Roderick Sung sat in on all of the discussions and briefings; and he seemed to be certain that the entire operation could be blown. We can argue over our personal interpretation of 'blown' but I'd say it would have to include failing to achieve the main objective(s).

Sung was worried about blowing Oyster Bay; not just one leg of Oyster Bay or Oysters served up on the half shell.

It is entirely possible, because of the way we got to this point, that you do not realize what I consider to be my central contention.

I am entirely ready to agree that the discovery of a scout ship could, if by accident Grayson and Manticore did everything perfectly, deny the attack any effect. That is probably what you mean by "blown".

However I believe that the attack cannot be called off. Just as Haven felt compelled to attack Manticore in the hope of success before Apollo could be fully deployed, the Malign believed that Apollo was poison to their plans and had to knocked back. This version of Oyster Bay was their only chance to accomplish something and so had follow through even if their odds of succeeding might become abysmal. After all the discover of one scout might still allow the other scouts to upload targeting data before escaping to hyperspace.

As it happened the scout was not discovered and the attack was as successful as hoped and was still a failure, because Apollo was already too widely in use. They did destroy the production line, but Beowulf could build enough missiles to replace usage.

But suppose that after Oyster Bay, Haven had turned around and conquered Manticore (which was very unlikely, but what the Malign hoped would happen). How does this help the Detweiler Plan? Now Haven has Apollo and all of Manticore's goodies which could be built in Bolthole where they were safe from any attack.

tlb wrote:As it happened the scout was not discovered and the attack was as successful as hoped and was still a failure, because Apollo was already too widely in use. They did destroy the production line, but Beowulf could build enough missiles to replace usage.

And the Python Lump was out of the yards and working up.

But suppose that after Oyster Bay, Haven had turned around and conquered Manticore (which was very unlikely, but what the Malign hoped would happen). How does this help the Detweiler Plan? Now Haven has Apollo and all of Manticore's goodies which could be built in Bolthole where they were safe from any attack.

Had the MAlign already known that Bolthole existed? I don't think they could have missed that hundreds of capital ships had shown up from no known yard...