Honor awakened a sleeping GIANT

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:map

The logistics of the SLN's probation

Somebody help me with my disconnect. Hypatia is a founding member. Surely there must be a lot of systems near Hypatia that the SL gobbled up as well. Systems that remain a part of the SL. The SLN cannot be seen in Hypatia, but they have legitimate business in the general vicinity.

Layman's terms
Hypatia has a restraining order out against the SLN. The SLN cannot be seen in Hypatia. But Hypatia is located in the "hood."

It sounds like some of those silly court documents ordering you not to come within 100 feet of your ex-lover when there is only one street leading into the housing area and the street leading to your home technically takes you less than fifty feet from her front door.

SL 2.0

If it wanted to, could the SL pull all of it's trade out of the Haven Sector's bottoms? The League does not need to trade with the entire GA. As a whole, the SL could boycott the entire sector, enact sanctions and trade restrictions when it rises from the ashes. They could even charge exorbitant fees for junction transit.

An economic war
I always thought the SL could wage an economic war with the Haven Sector even in peace time. All kinds of sanctions. The SL is more than just a huge gorilla. The gorilla controls a lot of markets.

The League could pull its trade out of Haven Sector bottoms (which effectively means Manticoran bottoms; as the Andermani don't have anywhere near as extensive a merchant marine and neither does Haven. Of course that would either increase their costs substantially, or else vastly increase their delivery times (which would increase their costs significantly).

In all cases? I am talking about completely avoiding Haven sector markets. Honor's decree forces the SL to adopt that policy since it can no longer offer protection to its freighters. Before the Battle of Sol, SL freighters were protected by that same deterrent force we talked about upstream. That deterrent force is now grounded. The SL can't even send escorts along for the ride, where escorts were previously not needed. So, effectively it would be easier to simply withdraw out of Haven sector bottoms. This should affect Manticore significantly.

At any rate, peering at the map, it seems a SL boycott of the Haven sector and the MWJ would only affect delivery times to places like Midgard, Asgard and Matapan.

Jonathan_S wrote:The primary reason that most League cargos touch Manticoran hulls at some stage in their journey is that it's faster to ship through the wormhole network and if you're shipping through the wormhole network it's cheaper to pay a Manticoran ship for that leg of the journey than it is to carry the cargo yourself.

See above. Only for areas like Midgard, Asgard and Matapan. However, they are close enough to SL space that it shouldn't affect the trade too significantly beyond being a simple annoyance.

Jonathan_S wrote:But sure, if the League want to pay or, or want to voluntarily continue to shipping disruptions of not using the wormhole network they could absoltely stop shipping on Manticoran hulls. (Mind you, I'm not sure even the new League constitution gives the central government the right to tell private shippers which ships they can use -- but maybe they could slap on a sufficiently high punitive tariff to more than offset the cost savings.

The central government wouldn't be telling them which shipping lines they could use, it is worse than that. They are telling them who NOT to trade with. And I think a government CAN do that. The US frequently puts certain countries on "the do not trade with list." It is called sanctions, etc. One affect of ignoring sanctions is voiding insurance policies at the very least. Because of a shipping line's lack of being able to obtain insurance, trading with the Haven sector may no longer be possible anyway.

Jonathan_S wrote:As for "snapping up systems" around Hypatia. That area is so central to League space that they'd either have been part of the original voluntary founding, or they'd be daughter colonies of core member worlds. It's very unlikely the League had to "snap them up"; they'd have happily joined voluntarily ages ago.

Indeed, for the most. But I reserve the right to retain a place holder for any system that may not actually have liked the SL very early on, and was able to holdout for several centuries until corruption set into the SL and they were strongly requested to join.

Jonathan_S wrote:But the "restraining order" as you phrase it isn't from Hypatia, it's Honor declaration that SLN units outside of League member systems will be treated as pirates.

Indeed. It is NOT from Hypatia. It is another one of those silly demands from the court system. Honor represents "court orders." Honor served all kinds of court documents before she left the Sol system. Even subpoenas for the Mandarins.

But Hypatia didn't actually request that action. And, aside from preventing the SL from attacking Hypatia again, Hypatia could actually be hurt economically from a lost of trade with the SL.

Jonathan_S wrote: It just so happens that as a system that's no longer a member of the League that declaration protects Hypatia just as much as it does some little Verge system we've never heard of. So having Fleet units in League member systems near Hypatia / Beowulf is just fine. And I'd assume that a right to be present in member systems implies a right to travel between member systems -- after all national territory doesn't apply in hyper-space. So sending Fleet units to those systems shouldn't violate the "restraining order" as you choose to call it.

But there's just no analogy, in routing between the stars, to having a single street leading to access certain buildings. You can always take a less direct route and swing wide around any system you want to -- there's nothing but space out there. So even if some later offscreen clarification required the SLN to stay X LY away from non-member systems they'd still be able to easily route units between member systems; they'd just need to sometimes adopt an indirect routing.

As I mentioned earlier, this indirect routing is going to fuel way too many tensions. The SL may stand to lose markets because of this indirect routing which may delay shipments. There are going to be Captains who are just going to say "to heck with it." Heck, some freighter Captains may actually be paid higher fees who are willing to challenge Honor's decree.

Actually, I don't see how the SL can use the MWJ anyway. Being in the MBS is also being caught "outside League space." Did I mention the common silliness of court orders?

But about the analogy that you say doesn't exist. It does. Hyperspace travel is composed of well traveled routes. I thought it was like the interstate. You get off the exit of your choice, but you continue on if your destination is elsewhere. But technically a ship is toeing the line if the hyperspace route takes them through a non member system. Problems will arise in case of emergencies like engine problems which cause a ship to prematurely drop out of hyper right smack dab in the middle of "violating a probation order."

Somtaaw wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:It isn't even a good fit for escorting a freighter convoy. No freighter is going to want to drop out of hyper 6 LH away; not when they could pop out of hyper near the hyper limit and so drastically shorten the trip. But an escorting warship can't emerge with then at < 1 LH; not without permission. But if they peel off and stay outside 6 LH then they can't provide any production as their freighters enter or leave the system. Heck, even if the freighters do drop out beyond 6 LH, unless the escort gets permission to come with them at least to the hyper limit the warships still can't provide protection.

About the only use for it is it defines a distance at which you're legally allowed to place pickets, in normal space, trying to observe someone else's system. (Such as the destroyers keeping an eye on the Peep base at Seaford 9 near the beginning of Short Victorious War)

Well nothing says merchy 'escorts' have to be dropping out of hyper alongside their charges, although for practical reasons you wouldn't want to be anywhere else. Seaford is basically exactly what I was thinking of too, that and Crandall at Spindle who DID breach the limit and then ignored Spindle Command for 18-ish hours. Specifically that while Sarnow was in favor of thickening their pickets, Parks and that other Admiral were almost rabidly against it because it would be borderline illegal and raising the stakes.

The SLN could use that same argument for the 12 hour limit, it just may not work out as well as they'd like however. But that's still the very best way to try goading the GA into overstepping legalities, assuming they'd like to sway public opinion from various neutral entities. Legally even the GA cannot claim SLN units, that are 6 to 12 light-hours out from the star, are 'pirates' because no merchy is ever that far out to begin with, like you said.


If the GA responds to them being beyond the 12 hour limit, they look like the aggressors against the 'innocent' SLN. If they don't respond to it, the SLN would be emboldened to continue nibbling ever closer, until either they're arriving at the very edge of the hyper limit with the merchy they are "escorting to protect Solarian interests" or they in fact do start getting shot up. At which time the whole plan backfires because the laws cover GA actions because within 12 hours is their space, and the SLN was already publicly designated pirates if found there.


Aside from Kingsford, the Ghost Hunters, and a few like them, almost every other example of an officer in the SLN hasn't been very good, so the odds of them TRYING this or something much like it, are a lot higher than a Navy that has a functional IQ as a perquisite to the rank.

Some silly CO on both sides is going to overstep his boundaries. It is just way too messy and the SL has a right to protect its freighters. It has a responsibility to do so as well.

Also, Honor's decree might prevent some non member systems from trading with the SL.

Because of the current pandemic, the US has seen the error of many of its practices. We will undoubtedly manufacture our own masks and other important healthcare items in the future because of this shortage experienced.

Likewise, the SL will begin to build more freighters and may even subsidize the sale to SL companies.

cthia wrote:Some silly CO on both sides is going to overstep his boundaries. It is just way too messy and the SL has a right to protect its freighters. It has a responsibility to do so as well.

Also, Honor's decree might prevent some non member systems from trading with the SL.

Because of the current pandemic, the US has seen the error of many of its practices. We will undoubtedly manufacture our own masks and other important healthcare items in the future because of this shortage experienced.

Likewise, the SL will begin to build more freighters and may even subsidize the sale to SL companies.

The Solarian League can protect its freighters by confining them to Solarian space; it lost the "right" to protect them by sending its navy to foreign ports. I expect the response will be to build enough freighters so that all internal freight movement can be in Solarian flagged ships.

Somtaaw wrote:The SLN could use that same argument for the 12 hour limit, it just may not work out as well as they'd like however. But that's still the very best way to try goading the GA into overstepping legalities, assuming they'd like to sway public opinion from various neutral entities. Legally even the GA cannot claim SLN units, that are 6 to 12 light-hours out from the star, are 'pirates' because no merchy is ever that far out to begin with, like you said.


If the GA responds to them being beyond the 12 hour limit, they look like the aggressors against the 'innocent' SLN. If they don't respond to it, the SLN would be emboldened to continue nibbling ever closer, until either they're arriving at the very edge of the hyper limit with the merchy they are "escorting to protect Solarian interests" or they in fact do start getting shot up. At which time the whole plan backfires because the laws cover GA actions because within 12 hours is their space, and the SLN was already publicly designated pirates if found there.

Except the SLN doesn't have to violate someone's 12 hour limit to be in violation of the terms they surrendered under.

Unlike everyone else in the galaxy they have an additional constraint to restrict their fleet units to their own member systems (now, while I do think that a right to operated within member systems implies a right to move between them, I don't think it implies a right to operate near non-member systems). 13 LH from someone else's system isn't operating within their own member systems.

So while their PR might be able to spin things to try to make the GA look bad -- I'd say the SLN operating near someone's 12 hour limit is a violation of their terms of surrender and so the GA would be justified in responding.

(Though the RMN ensures that even suspected/accused pirates get a trial -- and most likely if the SLN was just picketing someone's 12-hour limit without actively harassing or threatening anybody, and they didn't do anything stupid when GA forces showed up, they'd get returned to the League minus their ships)

cthia wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:The League could pull its trade out of Haven Sector bottoms (which effectively means Manticoran bottoms; as the Andermani don't have anywhere near as extensive a merchant marine and neither does Haven. Of course that would either increase their costs substantially, or else vastly increase their delivery times (which would increase their costs significantly).

In all cases? I am talking about completely avoiding Haven sector markets. Honor's decree forces the SL to adopt that policy since it can no longer offer protection to its freighters. Before the Battle of Sol, SL freighters were protected by that same deterrent force we talked about upstream. That deterrent force is now grounded. The SL can't even send escorts along for the ride, where escorts were previously not needed. So, effectively it would be easier to simply withdraw out of Haven sector bottoms. This should affect Manticore significantly.

At any rate, peering at the map, it seems a SL boycott of the Haven sector and the MWJ would only affect delivery times to places like Midgard, Asgard and Matapan.

The map isn't complete - there are a lot of wormhole bridges (like the Idaho one, or Ajay's, that don't show up in it.
The fastest way to get cargo across the League is usually to sent it outwards, and then use wormholes to skip around the periphery, through Manticore's Junction, and back into the League.
So a significant fraction of intra-League shipments actually travel through Manticore's Junction!

So cutting themselves off from Manticoran hulls would increase the cost of those shipments. And cutting themselves off from both Manticoran hulls and the Manticoran parts of the wormhole network would be voluntarily reimpossing the economic and supply chain issues of Lacoon One on themselves.

It'd hurt Manticore, but it's hurt the League quite a lot as well. Even once they built enough freighters to handle the shipments they'd still be dealing with greatly increased delivery times; which pushes up time and cost of intra-League shipments.



And it would be entirely the League's choice to cut off trade. Nothing in their surrender terms affects where their freighters are allowed to go. It only restricted SLN units.
And League space is safe enough they've never needed to escort freighters -- it's enough to secure the hyper limits of their member systems; which their warships are definitely still allowed to do (and was generally being done by SDFs either. The SLN didn't have a significant anti-piracy role because there wasn't piracy within their territory) And League freighters tended to stick to operating within that super safe League territory, and transfering cargo to folks like Manticore to haul out to where it can start using the wormhole network. So inability to provide escorts (which they've never used before) wouldn't prevent them from still shipping to non-league systems (not that they did much of that before either; at least not with their own hulls)

Actually thinking about it, the League wanting to provide military escort to its freighters now would actually seem pretty suspicious.

They've operated for centuries without convoying or escorting their freighters. (And along much of their frontier they were, under Operation Buccaneer, much of the pirate threat). Heck, even in Silesia where there was the galaxy's worst pirate threat the RMN, the galaxy's premier anti-pirate force, didn't normally escort its freighters or run convoys -- instead their warships independently patrolled for pirates.

So the League suddenly trying to claim that they couldn't possibly send an unescorted freighter between member systems, or to their long standing trading partners, when they never have before would kind of stink.


However, Kingsford isn't an idiot and doesn't seem to want to try to push his limits. So I'd be pretty surprised if the SLN started trying to quickly throw its weight around under a pretense of anti-piracy escorts.

Jonathan_S wrote:So while their PR might be able to spin things to try to make the GA look bad -- I'd say the SLN operating near someone's 12 hour limit is a violation of their terms of surrender and so the GA would be justified in responding.

Anyone staying just over the "territorial waters" limit with a bunch of warships is legally in the right, morally not so. That's a deliberate escalation of tensions and just asking for a CO to make a mistake to provoke a war or at a minimum an act of war. When the dust settles, if history is accurate (history is written by the victors), it would be clear that there was a deliberate provocation.

It's like your big brother harassing you close to your face and saying "I'm not touching you, you can't complain to mom!"

Jonathan_S wrote:Except the SLN doesn't have to violate someone's 12 hour limit to be in violation of the terms they surrendered under.

Unlike everyone else in the galaxy they have an additional constraint to restrict their fleet units to their own member systems (now, while I do think that a right to operated within member systems implies a right to move between them, I don't think it implies a right to operate near non-member systems). 13 LH from someone else's system isn't operating within their own member systems.

So while their PR might be able to spin things to try to make the GA look bad -- I'd say the SLN operating near someone's 12 hour limit is a violation of their terms of surrender and so the GA would be justified in responding.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Anyone staying just over the "territorial waters" limit with a bunch of warships is legally in the right, morally not so. That's a deliberate escalation of tensions and just asking for a CO to make a mistake to provoke a war or at a minimum an act of war. When the dust settles, if history is accurate (history is written by the victors), it would be clear that there was a deliberate provocation.

It's like your big brother harassing you close to your face and saying "I'm not touching you, you can't complain to mom!"

Looking at Jonathan_S's more complete post makes it clear that the Navy of the Solarian League cannot argue that they are okay, simply because they are not violating a foreign nation's territory. Honor made it clear that they could not operate (without permission) within even detection range of an independent world.

tlb wrote:[
Looking at Jonathan_S's more complete post makes it clear that the Navy of the Solarian League cannot argue that they are okay, simply because they are not violating a foreign nation's territory. Honor made it clear that they could not operate (without permission) within even detection range of an independent world.

Letter versus Spirit of laws applies. The letter of laws is that only within the 12 hour limit counts as national space and anything beyond that is neutral/unclaimed and open for free travel. The spirit of the new rule is that the SLN isn't even allowed to drop out of hyper anywhere except member systems; which technically includes neutral parties who actually don't care about SLN being in-system. If the legitimate system owner is okay with SLN being present, the GA legally can't come in guns blazing... except Honor's words imply that yes they could (and will), which would actually make the GA units the pirates they'd be accusing the SLN of being. See the trouble of taking what Honor said too literally?

Eventually the SLN, among others, will close the tech-gap at least to reduce it from 'hopeless' to shouting distance if not near parity. That's why I believe the GA will only enforce the 'no SLN units outside of member systems' if they cross the 12 hour limit. Yes its technically a violation, but it has centuries of legal precedent that beyond the 12 hour limit is unclaimed/neutral space.

Haven had no leg to stand on when Manticore sent pickets to Seaford, and obviously other major bases, and stayed beyond the limit. That was when both entities were clearly hostile to one another and effectively heartbeats away from a state of declared war. GA also has no legal right to shoot first so long as the SLN also stays beyond the limit, regardless of their official reason, if any, for being there.

There's no longer a true neutral arbiter of these sorts of situations. The League spent centuries being the somewhat impartial judge of hostilities and legalities, and it's now been shattered. But many of the laws are still being upheld regardless of the League's loss of power & influence, so the GA needs to be careful about what kinds of new legal precedents they want to set, it could come back to bite them down the road.

The complete BAN of naval units to travel outside of their officially claimed space would bite Manticore extremely hard if they were ever forced to surrender and had it applied to them. Manticoran naval units could be found everywhere in the galaxy protecting their freighters & citizens and banning their presence beyond Manticoran space would be almost crippling. So while they currently don't foresee being forced to surrender anywhere in the near-term, in the long-term they actually might have to and it'd be good to not have a legal precedent so clearly against their normal behaviour.

Somtaaw wrote:Eventually the SLN, among others, will close the tech-gap at least to reduce it from 'hopeless' to shouting distance if not near parity. That's why I believe the GA will only enforce the 'no SLN units outside of member systems' if they cross the 12 hour limit. Yes its technically a violation, but it has centuries of legal precedent that beyond the 12 hour limit is unclaimed/neutral space.

I don't think this provision will be still in place by the time they manage to close the tech gap. I've always understood it as a temporary measure to force the FF units that were effectively acting as pirates to go home and stop bullying verge systems. Or Core systems, with Buccaneer.

The complete BAN of naval units to travel outside of their officially claimed space would bite Manticore extremely hard if they were ever forced to surrender and had it applied to them. Manticoran naval units could be found everywhere in the galaxy protecting their freighters & citizens and banning their presence beyond Manticoran space would be almost crippling. So while they currently don't foresee being forced to surrender anywhere in the near-term, in the long-term they actually might have to and it'd be good to not have a legal precedent so clearly against their normal behaviour.

Quite agreed, which is one more reason to think it's a temporary measure.