tlb wrote:The war with Haven had changed from fleet against fleet to attacks against points of value (which might necessitate such plans); but Haven's mobile fleet had been captured and Manticore's fleet was at Haven's home planet at the time of Oyster Bay. The ships that Honor had could destroy everything that Haven had, so there was no obvious need to worry about bubble sidewalls or blocking ships.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:We know that, but the MAlign did not. When Oyster Bay was launched, the Battle of Manticore had not happened yet and information about it could not have made it into their planning anyway. They had to contend with the possibility that Haven was about. In fact, the whole plan was to give Pritchart and Theisman the ability to finish the war by winning, which required them to have a mobile fleet.
Which they did. Haven's own Python Lump of 600 SD(P)s was scheduled to come out of Bolthole in this time frame. What they didn't have was experienced crews aboard them yet. They'd have just swapped the older, non-pod designs for the SD(P)s, so the new fleet was inexperienced. Their existing personnel experienced on SD(P)s was held as POWs on Manticore.
Back to the point at hand: while the war had effectively frozen after the Battle of Manticore, the two powers were still at a state of war. The Alliance knew Haven had a secret production location called Bolthole that they couldn't find and therefore had to assume was still a threat (they could estimate about how big it was). And the Queen and Empress especially was still very distrustful of the Havenites, still calling them "peeps." So while I think the RMN did not expect Haven would mount another attack, especially not while Honor was on Haven itself, they could not stand down from standard war readiness on HMSS Vulcan.
And the MAN planners could not count on it either. Therefore, OB was planned to hit HMSS Vulcan at a time when its bubblewalls would be down (if it is not all the time) and with enough surprise that they couldn't bring the standard defences up.
That is incorrect, they might not have known that Honor was at Haven discussing an end to the war, but the information delay between Manticore and Mesa is only 5 days because of the streak drive and the wormholes. Oyster Bay was only authorized after the Battle of Manticore. From chapter 33 of Storm from the Shadows:
"I know that after so many centuries, recasting and reorganizing our plans on such short notice is enough to make anyone nervous. But let's face it, we've always known that when the time actually came, we were going to have to change planning and operational tempos. In many ways, I would prefer to continue with our original timetable. Unfortunately, the opposition hasn't chosen to cooperate with us in that respect. In my judgment, and especially in light of the outcome of the Battle of Manticore, the threat Manticore represents to our entire strategy has just increased exponentially. We cannot allow them to consolidate a clear-cut military victory over Haven, especially if they simultaneously manage to deploy four or five hundred podnoughts equipped with whatever it was they used to smash the attack on their home system. The odds of their having the strength to move directly against us under those circumstances if they realize what's really happening would be unacceptable, despite anything the Sollies might do.
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"In other cases, some of you may find that accelerating Oyster Bay will prove fatal to your objectives. I recognize that, and I'm afraid it's simply going to have to be the price we pay. In other words, there will be no repercussions for anyone who does find his or her areas of responsibility severely damaged as a consequence.
"And whether that happens or not, my decision has been made. Although we still have to complete the detailed plans for a scaled-back Oyster Bay, our studies indicate that it will be completely feasible for us to do so. And on that basis, I have instructed Benjamin to plan for an execution date of a modified Oyster Bay strike no later than six T-months from today."