Stratifying navies

robert132 wrote:

Sigs wrote:What really confuses me is when Grayson when they clearly saw that war was coming decided to send the protectors own to defend a system of little value except for it's commander while not reinforcing a system which would have doubled the RMN's SD(P)s.

Consider ... Protector Benjamin owes (in his view) little or no loyalty to the High Ridge government due to the scuzzy way Grayson had been treated since High Ridge became PM.

On the other hand, Admiral STEADHOLDER Harrington in his mind has earned and deserves all the respect and support he can provide, and he JUST HAPPENS to have this little fleet called "The Protector's Own" lying around, running the occasional exercise but not really doing anything useful at the moment, and it's Commanding Admiral has been "whining" that his people are losing their fine edge, so ...

So why not send these ships to reinforce Steadholder Harrington's thin line of ships, he thinks to himself. It provides him a way to both deliver a backhanded slap to High Ridge and Janasek and to provide The Protector's Own with a long deployment exercise as an excuse to get them to someone who might, just might need them if it all goes to hell (as it did.)

The other thing to keep in mind is the timeline. In War of Honor Benjamin makes the decision to deploy the Protector's Own to quietly back on Honor against the Andies in Chapter 18 - and they arrive in Chapter 29.
But Theisman also doesn't announced that Haven has SD(P)s until Chapter 29.


So at the time the Protectors Own was sent Haven's SD(P)s were still secret, they hadn't started playing hardball on the negotiations, and Grayson had just hints that they had something called Bolthole that Foraker was involved in. At that point the Andies and Silesia seemed like the more immediate problem.

Things obviously changed, but by that point it was clear that Haven had dispatched modern units to the Silesia area (Ch 26) - presumably with the intent of defeating some of Manticore's SD(P)s in detail. At that point sending the Protector's Own away (unless as part of stripping all modern units out of Marsh and rushing them home without orders to reinforce the most critical systems) would be foolish -- and would risk the war starting while they were still in transit. (The German WWI screw-up repeated on an interstellar scale)

robert132 wrote:

Sigs wrote:What really confuses me is when Grayson when they clearly saw that war was coming decided to send the protectors own to defend a system of little value except for it's commander while not reinforcing a system which would have doubled the RMN's SD(P)s.

Consider ... Protector Benjamin owes (in his view) little or no loyalty to the High Ridge government due to the scuzzy way Grayson had been treated since High Ridge became PM.

On the other hand, Admiral STEADHOLDER Harrington in his mind has earned and deserves all the respect and support he can provide, and he JUST HAPPENS to have this little fleet called "The Protector's Own" lying around, running the occasional exercise but not really doing anything useful at the moment, and it's Commanding Admiral has been "whining" that his people are losing their fine edge, so ...

So why not send these ships to reinforce Steadholder Harrington's thin line of ships, he thinks to himself. It provides him a way to both deliver a backhanded slap to High Ridge and Janasek and to provide The Protector's Own with a long deployment exercise as an excuse to get them to someone who might, just might need them if it all goes to hell (as it did.)

Jonathan_S wrote:The other thing to keep in mind is the timeline. In War of Honor Benjamin makes the decision to deploy the Protector's Own to quietly back on Honor against the Andies in Chapter 18 - and they arrive in Chapter 29.
But Theisman also doesn't announced that Haven has SD(P)s until Chapter 29.


So at the time the Protectors Own was sent Haven's SD(P)s were still secret, they hadn't started playing hardball on the negotiations, and Grayson had just hints that they had something called Bolthole that Foraker was involved in. At that point the Andies and Silesia seemed like the more immediate problem.

Things obviously changed, but by that point it was clear that Haven had dispatched modern units to the Silesia area (Ch 26) - presumably with the intent of defeating some of Manticore's SD(P)s in detail. At that point sending the Protector's Own away (unless as part of stripping all modern units out of Marsh and rushing them home without orders to reinforce the most critical systems) would be foolish -- and would risk the war starting while they were still in transit. (The German WWI screw-up repeated on an interstellar scale)

ISTR an heir of high handed arrogance on the part of the Manticoran government at the time and their going way out of their way to be royally insulting to the Graysons. High Ridge and Janacek would have been furious with the Graysons if they'd sent them help when... "they obviously didn't need their help."

They'd have taken it as a sleight to their competence. IMO, that would have made things worse.

munroburton wrote:You keep ignoring one thing - Havenite intelligence had near-perfect numbers on RMN deployments, thanks to the raging debates over naval spendings in the Manticoran parliament.

It was impossible for any RMN strategical deployments to be unknown by Haven. That is the basis for my belief that the only possible surprise reinforcements comes from the GSN, barring the RMN Home Fleet sitting on top of the Junction(which they weren't).

My point is that those 6 SD(P)'s would have been more helpful in Grendelsbane EVEN if the RHN knew they were there. Here is why: assuming that the Protectors Own is not send to Marsh they are free to be redeployed in secret which means that they still tip the balance. Without Greyson the RMN loses almost 80% of their SD(P)s and is completely defeated in one offensive. Those 6 RMN SD(P)s would make a difference in Grendelsbane to reinforce the picket but what would make the biggest difference would be the Protector's Own.

Sending 6 SD(P)'s would have done very little to discourage the IAN even backed by the 25+ SDs and DNs. And if the RHN attacked like it did they would mean very little as well. But redeployment to Grendelsbane might have caught the RHN off guard since the system might be a lot harder to spy on then. Even with the addition of 2nd Fleet, Giscard wont have enough for a victory over the Allied fleets unless they fought completely and totally stupid. They went in expecting 2 to 1 odds and they encountered damned near equal number but superior firepower. Even 12 more SD(P)s would do little to nothing to improve that.

Shuffling RMN SD(P)s squadrons back and forth does nothing to alter Thunderbolt's outcomes. That operation was precisely planned with the objective of destroying as many RMN SD(P)s as possible - which is the only reason why Second Fleet went to Silesia.

From where I am standing, if the 6 SD(P)s were not send to Marsh but were instead send to Grednelsbane, the Protector's Own would be free to reinforce Grednelsbane rather than go to protect Honor in a meaningless system.

Furthermore, the GSN were only able to act on the eve of Thunderbolt because of specific intelligence gained in Silesia. Remember Tourville's dispatch destroyer? If the RMN SD(P)s had not been at Marsh, that destroyer would never have been in Silesia for Admiral Bachfisch to follow.

They knew something was coming, so without that piece of intelligence they might have acted sooner.

Depending upon whether Honor Harrington accepted the Sidemore Station assignment with no SD(P)s to command, the Protector's Own would still be there to secretly back up the old SDs and DNs in case the IAN got too aggressive. But, as above, if there are no RMN SD(P)s, they would never face a Second Fleet.

They had intelligence that war was coming... they send the Protector's Own because of her. If she was not there the GSN would have been free to redeploy somewhere else. The GSN was not caught by surprise with the resumption of hostilities they saw it coming.

The strategical importance of destroying Grendelsbane's unfinished ships is why I believe the RHN commander would have performed long-range MDM bombardments utilising ballistic coasting periods regardless of how many defenders there were. The Grendelsbane system has no inhabited planets, so no risk of an EE violation at all.

And the commander would have to give fair warning to the defenders to evacuate the civilians from those yards. If the Republic of Haven started the war by slaughtering thousands of civilians even if they were not on a planet it might have undermined their position that the SKM was playing with the mail.

It wouldn't be as bad as Higgins' self-destruct order, mind you. But still bad.

And then it would have blown in Havens face because they would have resumed active operations without warning and one of their first orders of business would have been to slaughter 50,000+ civilian shipyard workers without allowing a chance to evacuate. You give them a chance to evacuate you give the defenders a chance to stop some or all of the missiles. Haven was trying to show that they were different, even if they gave the warning to evacuate there was not enough transport to get everyone off and the area would be littered with escape pods some of which would likely be destroyed in the attack.

robert132 wrote:

Sigs wrote:What really confuses me is when Grayson when they clearly saw that war was coming decided to send the protectors own to defend a system of little value except for it's commander while not reinforcing a system which would have doubled the RMN's SD(P)s.

Consider ... Protector Benjamin owes (in his view) little or no loyalty to the High Ridge government due to the scuzzy way Grayson had been treated since High Ridge became PM.

On the other hand, Admiral STEADHOLDER Harrington in his mind has earned and deserves all the respect and support he can provide, and he JUST HAPPENS to have this little fleet called "The Protector's Own" lying around, running the occasional exercise but not really doing anything useful at the moment, and it's Commanding Admiral has been "whining" that his people are losing their fine edge, so ...

So why not send these ships to reinforce Steadholder Harrington's thin line of ships, he thinks to himself. It provides him a way to both deliver a backhanded slap to High Ridge and Janasek and to provide The Protector's Own with a long deployment exercise as an excuse to get them to someone who might, just might need them if it all goes to hell (as it did.)

He owes nothing to High Ridge, but he owes everything to the SKM. He send nearly 40% of the GSN SD(P)s to Trevor's Star, he did not do it to protect High Ridge, he did it to protect his Ally the SKM. So instead of protecting a meaningless system the Protectors Own could have been out protecting the system that has the unfinished ships to double the RMN in months.

Jonathan_S wrote:The other thing to keep in mind is the timeline. In War of Honor Benjamin makes the decision to deploy the Protector's Own to quietly back on Honor against the Andies in Chapter 18 - and they arrive in Chapter 29.
But Theisman also doesn't announced that Haven has SD(P)s until Chapter 29.


So at the time the Protectors Own was sent Haven's SD(P)s were still secret, they hadn't started playing hardball on the negotiations, and Grayson had just hints that they had something called Bolthole that Foraker was involved in. At that point the Andies and Silesia seemed like the more immediate problem.

Things obviously changed, but by that point it was clear that Haven had dispatched modern units to the Silesia area (Ch 26) - presumably with the intent of defeating some of Manticore's SD(P)s in detail. At that point sending the Protector's Own away (unless as part of stripping all modern units out of Marsh and rushing them home without orders to reinforce the most critical systems) would be foolish -- and would risk the war starting while they were still in transit. (The German WWI screw-up repeated on an interstellar scale)

Those SD(P)'s in the Protectors own would not have done much more than die gloriously beside the RMN Squadron. And the RMN Squadron should not have been there in the first place.

Sigs wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:The other thing to keep in mind is the timeline. In War of Honor Benjamin makes the decision to deploy the Protector's Own to quietly back on Honor against the Andies in Chapter 18 - and they arrive in Chapter 29.
But Theisman also doesn't announced that Haven has SD(P)s until Chapter 29.


So at the time the Protectors Own was sent Haven's SD(P)s were still secret, they hadn't started playing hardball on the negotiations, and Grayson had just hints that they had something called Bolthole that Foraker was involved in. At that point the Andies and Silesia seemed like the more immediate problem.

Things obviously changed, but by that point it was clear that Haven had dispatched modern units to the Silesia area (Ch 26) - presumably with the intent of defeating some of Manticore's SD(P)s in detail. At that point sending the Protector's Own away (unless as part of stripping all modern units out of Marsh and rushing them home without orders to reinforce the most critical systems) would be foolish -- and would risk the war starting while they were still in transit. (The German WWI screw-up repeated on an interstellar scale)

Those SD(P)'s in the Protectors own would not have done much more than die gloriously beside the RMN Squadron. And the RMN Squadron should not have been there in the first place.

The SDPs that were already deployed to Grendlesbane were used terribly, and the Protector's Own would have bumped it from 1 squadron to perhaps 4. Which would simply have increased the hammer Theisman deployed to crush it. They had fairly detailed intelligence on Grendlesbane, by buying off merchants supplying the base.

Remember, Admiral Higgins sent off individual attacks of LAC's, then SDP's (or was it SDP then LACs?), defeat in detail essentially. Especially since he'd doubled down by splitting his podnoughts from support fleet, because he thought the non-podlayers would simply get in the way while his "longer ranged" podnoughts fought.

Having any Grayson ships wouldn't have helped in the slightest, because Higgins fought stupidly (sorry rose, but he did), he only got smart after losing all his modern ships and evacuated instead. His choices were almost as bad as the later Battle of Manticore tactic choices, and with much the same reason, plot dictated Grendlesbane had to go and go it shall.

Sigs wrote:

Furthermore, the GSN were only able to act on the eve of Thunderbolt because of specific intelligence gained in Silesia. Remember Tourville's dispatch destroyer? If the RMN SD(P)s had not been at Marsh, that destroyer would never have been in Silesia for Admiral Bachfisch to follow.

They knew something was coming, so without that piece of intelligence they might have acted sooner.

Please provide further justification for this. I just don't see how the GSN would act earlier on less intelligence than they had in War of Honor. Admiral MacDonnell and his task force made transit to Trevor's Star only a few days before Thunderbolt hit it and they were dispatched as a reaction to Honor's reports of possible Havenite presence in Silesia.

As for the Grendelsbane civilians, I will point out that Terekhov was perfectly willing to blow away a bunch of Monican civilian shipyard workers to neutralise the threat represented by a handful of battlecruisers. It's been established time and time again that whilst military commanders are expected to do their best to minimise civilian casualties, it is widely accepted that this is not always practical, especially if they are within the boundaries of an exclusively military zone. If even the Manticorans, however pissed off they are, accept that Oyster Bay was a legitimate military operation, as in it did not violate the Eridani Edict, then I simply don't see how 50,000 civilians working for the military would stop the Havenites from doing whatever they had to do to destroy more than seventy unfinished podlayers.