The Torch Wormhole

cthia wrote:You are still missing the point. They DO control the wormhole. They just haven't yet made that known. They shall serve no wine before it's time. Ships are already in place at Torch because Torch has a target on its back. Also, Haven is one very important leg of the GA. When Haven is attacked, Torch can be ready to support operations there in case things go a bit awry. The MA will want to prevent either arm of the GA from supporting the other by keeping either arm quite busy itself.

I don't see the MA sticking their heads up for a while.

Their intel network and control systems in the League are in tatters, the Havenites and the Manties are not only at peace but allies and they have The Scourge of the Spaceways, (gasp!) Black Victor and their new, improved company of cohorts- which now includes a treecat that's bonded with one of their former agents who has his own axes to grind- on their trail.

Let's not discount the Sollie ONI anti-"Other Guys" cabal and their Ghost Hunter associates since they now have the ear of the head of the Sollie Navy and, most likely, the next head of state. An old, weak, decrepit 800 pound gorilla is still a really big gorilla and, while the Manties and Havenites might be able to rancor roll with one and come out on top 4 falls out of 5, the Mesan Alignment don't have the ability to punch at that sort of weight class.

IF they are as smart as they think they are genetically predisposed to be, then they would pull back into their hole at Darius and chill out for a couple of decades working on their tech and production rate levels so they can keep up or even surpass the Manties as they try to figure out a way to infiltrate everybody all over again. They really, really need people on the inside of the various governments all over the galaxy. They need that intel and the ability to steer the narrative or influence the decision making process since they have to be able to fight soft instead of hard and heads up. That would take a LOT of time and time isn't something that they have from the tea leaves that I've been seeing.

Too bad that the logical path doesn't jibe with moving the series forward without that several decade jump in time, so we all know that isn't going to happen. We are talking about people that have always thought in terms of generations. This current generation has gotten impatient and is going to screw up everything.

cthia wrote:You are still missing the point. They DO control the wormhole. They just haven't yet made that known. They shall serve no wine before it's time. Ships are already in place at Torch because Torch has a target on its back. Also, Haven is one very important leg of the GA. When Haven is attacked, Torch can be ready to support operations there in case things go a bit awry. The MA will want to prevent either arm of the GA from supporting the other by keeping either arm quite busy itself.

They don't control the near end of the Congo-Twins Wormhole. Having ships around is not sufficient while the opposition is still around. To maintain an element of secrecy, they'd need to be able to tag all traffic in the Congo System and destroy it without losses. Which is nearly impossible when all your ships are slower than the prey you're trying to catch. We don't have numbers, but those RTN frigates are likely VERY fast.

Anyway, if I understand you correctly, the MAN plan you're proposing is to spend months infiltrating the main GA systems plus send at least one ship to the Congo System and be ready near the wormhole. Meanwhile, they begin staging ships from Darius, through Felix, into the Twins. Then, at the appointed time, when no ship escaping from the Congo System can reach any of the target in time to raise the alarm, the ship near the wormhole disposes of any defences the RTN has placed there, sends a dispatch boat into the wormhole and calls forward the reinforcements from The Twins. This force can at leisure reconquer the Congo System and move forward to attack in the Haven Sector.

That's a workable scenario.

The only wrinkle and I've been asking all along: what strategic objective do you accomplish? The scenario began with three or four dozen LDs trashing the Haven Sector core systems. If that worked, what's the point in bringing more ships via the Twins? Who are they going to attack? If the dozens of ships were successful, there's no organised opposition any more and there are no targets to attack. If they weren't successful, bringing more ships is throwing good money after bad: you can't infiltrate a system under high alert using the same technique twice.

And we're still missing something about the LDs. I can't see how they'd make a strategy based on attacks that require a three- to six-month coasting stealth approach every single time.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:You are still missing the point. They DO control the wormhole. They just haven't yet made that known. They shall serve no wine before it's time. Ships are already in place at Torch because Torch has a target on its back. Also, Haven is one very important leg of the GA. When Haven is attacked, Torch can be ready to support operations there in case things go a bit awry. The MA will want to prevent either arm of the GA from supporting the other by keeping either arm quite busy itself.

They don't control the near end of the Congo-Twins Wormhole. Having ships around is not sufficient while the opposition is still around. To maintain an element of secrecy, they'd need to be able to tag all traffic in the Congo System and destroy it without losses. Which is nearly impossible when all your ships are slower than the prey you're trying to catch. We don't have numbers, but those RTN frigates are likely VERY fast.

Anyway, if I understand you correctly, the MAN plan you're proposing is to spend months infiltrating the main GA systems plus send at least one ship to the Congo System and be ready near the wormhole. Meanwhile, they begin staging ships from Darius, through Felix, into the Twins. Then, at the appointed time, when no ship escaping from the Congo System can reach any of the target in time to raise the alarm, the ship near the wormhole disposes of any defences the RTN has placed there, sends a dispatch boat into the wormhole and calls forward the reinforcements from The Twins. This force can at leisure reconquer the Congo System and move forward to attack in the Haven Sector.

That's a workable scenario.

The only wrinkle and I've been asking all along: what strategic objective do you accomplish? The scenario began with three or four dozen LDs trashing the Haven Sector core systems. If that worked, what's the point in bringing more ships via the Twins? Who are they going to attack? If the dozens of ships were successful, there's no organised opposition any more and there are no targets to attack. If they weren't successful, bringing more ships is throwing good money after bad: you can't infiltrate a system under high alert using the same technique twice.

And we're still missing something about the LDs. I can't see how they'd make a strategy based on attacks that require a three- to six-month coasting stealth approach every single time.

Hmm. Let's go with your scenario. It's a fine scenario. LOL

Like I said, a lot will depend on their ultimate goals, and other information we don't know. Like the availability of other junctions and their utility.

Also consider this. Depending on the success of major operations, there will most certainly be secondary operations and targets. Bolthole if the location is known, or discovered from captured ships? The MA may capture ships too you know. Industry at Beowulf, any other industrial allies of the GA, and yadda yadda yadda, as secondary offensives.

Anyone else's spider senses tingling about it being high-time the Sanctuarians at Bolthole are introduced to the real world at large?

They can't remain naive forever.

Jonathan_S wrote:
To use the wormhole you have to destroy the defenders. You can't destroy the defenders without high risk that word of that will escape.

As far as has been stated, nobody is defending it. It's just a point out in space. It's so far out that the odds are very good that nobody will even notice it if you use it.

That said, it would be dumb unless you have some way to ensure nobody can figure out that you are using the WH and have a really good reason to use it.

cthia wrote:You are still missing the point. They DO control the wormhole. They just haven't yet made that known. They shall serve no wine before it's time. Ships are already in place at Torch because Torch has a target on its back. Also, Haven is one very important leg of the GA. When Haven is attacked, Torch can be ready to support operations there in case things go a bit awry. The MA will want to prevent either arm of the GA from supporting the other by keeping either arm quite busy itself.

Please start over and explain your proposed timeline for the attacks on Haven and Torch.

I see two possible options
1) Attack the Torch terminus before launching the Haven attack - Haven likely warned of MAlign units in the sector
2) Attack the Torch terminus after launching the Haven attack - maintain security but not base the Haven attack from Torch

But I might be missing something. So like I said, please lay out the timeline so I can understand.

cthia wrote:Like I said, a lot will depend on their ultimate goals, and other information we don't know. Like the availability of other junctions and their utility.

Indeed. The only thing that comes to mind is the Erewhon Junction, which is just a couple of light years from the Congo System and leads to the Solarian League (Joshua). And even this target needs to be conquered before transiting in the Congo System: the first stop of any ship that escapes from Congo is Erewhon and attacking openly is not the MAlign Way.

Anything else is pure speculation. Since you're the one proposing this plan, you get to speculate.

Also consider this. Depending on the success of major operations, there will most certainly be secondary operations and targets. Bolthole if the location is known, or discovered from captured ships? The MA may capture ships too you know. Industry at Beowulf, any other industrial allies of the GA, and yadda yadda yadda, as secondary offensives.

Sure, there are secondary targets, but there are also three to four dozen LDs in the Haven Sector that began the attack in the first place. Aside from Erewhon and Maya, all secondary targets would be closer to those squadrons than to anything the MAN can bring via The Twins.

So in your scenario above which you'll have to posit, please either propose something that requires 80-100 LDs. Simultaneously.

As for Beowulf, it has to be an attack via hyperspace too, not via the Junction. Any attack in the Manticore System throws the BSDF into high alert. And unlike the RTN, they will be watching the terminus, since there's a ship coming through every 3 minutes. There's no way to sneak through.

Anyone else's spider senses tingling about it being high-time the Sanctuarians at Bolthole are introduced to the real world at large?

They can't remain naive forever.

Dark Page says Pritchart promised them it would be soon. Now that they are at peace with Manticore, it may happen. Unless she asked them for more time because of the MAlign threat.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Like I said, a lot will depend on their ultimate goals, and other information we don't know. Like the availability of other junctions and their utility.

Indeed. The only thing that comes to mind is the Erewhon Junction, which is just a couple of light years from the Congo System and leads to the Solarian League (Joshua). And even this target needs to be conquered before transiting in the Congo System: the first stop of any ship that escapes from Congo is Erewhon and attacking openly is not the MAlign Way.

Anything else is pure speculation. Since you're the one proposing this plan, you get to speculate.

Also consider this. Depending on the success of major operations, there will most certainly be secondary operations and targets. Bolthole if the location is known, or discovered from captured ships? The MA may capture ships too you know. Industry at Beowulf, any other industrial allies of the GA, and yadda yadda yadda, as secondary offensives.

Sure, there are secondary targets, but there are also three to four dozen LDs in the Haven Sector that began the attack in the first place. Aside from Erewhon and Maya, all secondary targets would be closer to those squadrons than to anything the MAN can bring via The Twins.

So in your scenario above which you'll have to posit, please either propose something that requires 80-100 LDs. Simultaneously.

As for Beowulf, it has to be an attack via hyperspace too, not via the Junction. Any attack in the Manticore System throws the BSDF into high alert. And unlike the RTN, they will be watching the terminus, since there's a ship coming through every 3 minutes. There's no way to sneak through.

Anyone else's spider senses tingling about it being high-time the Sanctuarians at Bolthole are introduced to the real world at large?

They can't remain naive forever.

Dark Page says Pritchart promised them it would be soon. Now that they are at peace with Manticore, it may happen. Unless she asked them for more time because of the MAlign threat.

1) Speculation is the beginning rudiments of strategy. Strategy is formulated in the War Room. The War Room is a collective of minds. I'll be needing your minds, because too much info is missing from intel. And a lot of what is not missing is missing from my inbox. Surely you're not going to force me to retire to my quarters and go it alone like Honor.

2) Additional LDs would be slated for a contingency plan.

3) I was talking about the Sanctuarans becoming less naive as a result of the best teacher in the galaxy. War. Coming to their doorsteps shedding blood.

The only thing I'm fairly certain of because my spider senses are tingling like crazy, is that Torch is toast. I'm just not sure how the MA likes its toast.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:You are still missing the point. They DO control the wormhole. They just haven't yet made that known. They shall serve no wine before it's time. Ships are already in place at Torch because Torch has a target on its back. Also, Haven is one very important leg of the GA. When Haven is attacked, Torch can be ready to support operations there in case things go a bit awry. The MA will want to prevent either arm of the GA from supporting the other by keeping either arm quite busy itself.

Please start over and explain your proposed timeline for the attacks on Haven and Torch.

I see two possible options
1) Attack the Torch terminus before launching the Haven attack - Haven likely warned of MAlign units in the sector
2) Attack the Torch terminus after launching the Haven attack - maintain security but not base the Haven attack from Torch

But I might be missing something. So like I said, please lay out the timeline so I can understand.

#2. Torch should be taken only after the Streak Boat arrives with confirmation the fireworks have begun. Torch is the least defended. Getting word to her will be too little too late. Also, I am not proposing the move on Haven will be based out of Torch. I am proposing the support of the operation to be based out of Torch by deploying units forward to take the wormhole and allow for other forces to come thru.

BTW, I am also positing the coordination of the traditional warships of the RFN. Like everyone agrees, their original plan is kaput. They may decide to permanently take Torch and set up housekeeping with their RFN. Why are you all assuming it would be easy to retake Torch? The GA's goodies are not located in the Torch system. And I'm sure the MA will shoot the ass off of anything trying to drag in huge detection arrays to detect the Lennys. Why can't the Torch whj be just as difficult to take as the MWJ, if the RFN is just as formidable as the GA? If not, they can always be ready to pull a Houdini thru the wormhole.

General Thoughts on the Torch Terminus.

Using it as a "base" - using the Wormhole in operational planning, even if it is just need to be used for transit means controlling it for the duration of the operation.

So the terminus must be protected during the entire operation, making it an operational liability.

Not arguing one way or another, but this point MUST be assessed and addressed in any operational plan and, while an elegant solution, may be deemed too risky for an operation. The simplest solution is usually the best, as it has the fewest parts which can go wrong.

Defending the Congo wormhole. Right now, the Mannerheim navy has a BC squadron defending the Twins side of the terminus. this is sufficient to stop any casual transit, even up to an SD. however, if a mass transit is used, or even a lucky SD - the BC squadron cannot inflict enough damage in a short amount of time to destroy a Mass transit in the emergence lane. If an SD or 2 get to the end of the emergence lane - the BC's day will be ruined.

Manticore's junction has 60+ modern forts, an SD contingent, a cruiser contingent, thousands of LACs, shoals of MDM pods, and programable minefields, not to mention the ability to recall units from other termini. Each exposed terminus has 12 or so modern forts, pods, minefields (if the needs demand), plus at least a cruiser level force. These can defend from hyper or from the wormhole.

The Malign is using secrecy as their primary layer of protection where the Felix/Congo wormhole is concerned. They have no permanent presence, and thus require the use of their mobile forces to man such defenses so any serious defense of the terminus (or junction) will deplete their available mobile forces.

Theemile wrote:Not arguing one way or another, but this point MUST be assessed and addressed in any operational plan and, while an elegant solution, may be deemed too risky for an operation. The simplest solution is usually the best, as it has the fewest parts which can go wrong.

Most successful military planners keep the KISS principle in mind. So while operating a base under stealth in an inhabited system is feasible, there are unforeseen ways that it can go bad; consider the short story The Service of the Sword where it was tried.

We have discussed elsewhere how the Malign leadership might punish incompetence. I found one example where failure that resulted from an improbable circumstance in the Monica plan was forgiven. But Detweiler forgiving Bardasano and Anisimovna does not mean that failure from chosing a complex plan over a simpler one would be equally forgivable.