Love the timeline but disagree with your kill numbers, mostly with the accuracy assertion, based on the interception results from New Tuscany, Zunker, and Saltash at equivalent or greater ranges.
==Large snip==
ThinksMarkedly wrote:We know from what happened that 9 salvos were fired before the SLN found TG110.2, which translates to 3 minutes. With Phantom firing from further out, let's say she would get 4 minutes until detection. With the 2-hour pre-acceleration, the Cataphracts launched immediately upon detection intercept after 214 seconds. With 1 hour of pre-acceleration, it increases to only 223 seconds.
In the ~220 seconds it took for the Cataphracts to arrive, both segments of TG110.2 will have fired another 11 salvos of 352 missiles. Those will arrive. And at the time of its destruction, Phantom is still about 90 light-seconds from Hypatia, so any missiles within 100 seconds of arriving should be considered "under control". But since she's at nearly 2x the distance than the actual engagement, the missile performance has to be poorer.
The Saganamis are closer. They were at roughly 16.4 Gm (4 minutes of missile flight time, 55 light-seconds) when they first fired. If they were at rest relative to the SLN, the Cataphracts would need 227 seconds to reach them. They wouldn't be...
==end of snip==
Trying to keep it short, I used Excel and your missile flight times but different detection. I also decided to give Phantom a "three free shot" headstart designed to give Kotouc a better idea of "lower mission-kill missile requirements", aka how much can they spread their fire and still achieve mission kills for every ship targeted. I'll stipulate that the answer is 36 (Angrim's fire that killed Lepanto) but the lower count they'll settle on is 40 Mk16Gs per. She won't have time, but that would give a Nike enough ammunition to shoot the s--- out of all the BCs in TF-1030. Also note that my timeline uses T Zero as the time that each of the TUFT freighters eat a Manty RD. T- (T minus) before, T+ (T plus) after. and have Phantom start firing earlier.
Pre-Kickoff, the Sag-Bs are moving into position, Phantom is divergent and at 30MM ish kilometers, with 6 Lorelies launching but dark, to imitate a Nike, two heavy cruisers, and 4 of those "big assed Many Destroyers". She's also spotted two quad launches of 200 missiles each that will fire and never go ballistic.
*T - 180 Salvo one lights up stacked 200 missiles at 4 BCs, Loreleis launched
*T - 156 Salvo two fires 200 missiles at 6 BCs,
*T - 144 Salvo 3 fires 100 Missiles at 4 BCs. Phantom turns to a mildly divergent course, goes dark, Loreleis activated.
Not much new happens or about a minute...
*T-60 As planned by Ilkova, the SLN detects the Lorelies
*T-30 TF-1030 fires the 120K missile salvo
*T-0 ==> Kerblooey! 3 TUFTS freighters go buh-Bye.
This is 30 seconds before the RMN missiles could have arrived. Consternation Ensues.
*T+30 to T+66: 11 B/Cs blown up or mission killed, three severely damaged. Phantom and the SagBs are still undetected.
*T+90ish, the SLN can no longer control ANY of their Alpha launch. ALL of the missiles are going to miss.
*T+120: Phantom raises her wedge 4, ignites more Lorelies, and sends the next 200 missile salvo. They've figured an optimum fire distribution of 40 missiles per B/C. Every salvo fired after will target a single ship with ten more attacking nearby ships just to raise mayhem. It's now tube on tube as soon as the SLN finds Phantom for real this time.
*T+132 to T 360: Phantom fires 28 total Mk-16 salvos, 50 apiece. 28 more mission kills. We're at 39 dead BCs.... maybe 10-25% damage on others. No golden BB shots here...
T+360: Phantom is discovered. She now has time for about 18 salvos before whatever missiles arrive from the remaining 60 BCs. Halfway the, the Cataphracts become uncontrolled.
T+480: Sag-Bs open up with full speed shots coordinated fire. These will arrive at roughly T+ 600, then arrive every 12-15 seconds in flights of 210. Mission killing around 4-5 BCs per minute...
Also at T+480: Cataphract now uncontrolled. Phantom begins handing off tactical control of all their latter in-space salvo(s) to the Sag Bs, and is mission killed around T+540. She's killed 54 all by herself.... which is roughly correct for your 2300 count divided by my "40 per kill".
*T+450 to around T+700, the Sag-Bs haven't even been isolated yet, and the missile salvo has gone up to a mixed 320 per time-on-target salvo (30 per sag + 50 each from Phantom) under full shipboard control... for twenty more salvos. They only need 9 to run the tables on the B/Cs before they start on the lighter TF-1030 warships.
Do you really think I wouldn't at least have one or two Sag Bs surviving alive at the end? Then again, what tactical genius decided to launch all of the deployed missiles three minutes before any RMN missiles could have arrived. Feller named Hadju Gyozo... about the same tactical skill as Crandall, methinks.
He musta been trained on Frontier Fleet's gimme sims.