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Suspension of Disbelief.

Join us in talking discussing all things Honor, including (but not limited to) tactics, favorite characters, and book discussions.
Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by cthia   » Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:02 pm

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cthia wrote:Please forgive my snipping and transplanting of an appendage from the body of your post, Jeff.
JeffEngel wrote:Given how limited Honorverse AI is, there's no plausible way that you could expect intelligent advice out of one that combines knowledge of politics, diplomacy, strategy, psychology, and economics. Not at that high level - extrapolating target choice from prior attacks is vastly easier. So no, there really shouldn't - barring vastly better computing than exists there - be an op-for political adviser in Admiralty House.

True. But that was my point. The disbelief that we can't count on that kind of performance from Honorverse A.I.

What I see as the hindrance in that ability now is the power and efficiency of current processors vs fast storage and not the lack of capable programmers. The programming expertise (and the language - my favorite, Lisp) is available even today - but not within the limited conformity of current technology.

In the Honorverse, the processing power is a given. Therefore, I cannot believe the lack of programming prowess of Honorverse programmers in the creation of that type of "expert system."

JeffEngel wrote:The processing power isn't a given in the Honorverse. Nothing you would expect of computing power in 23 odd centuries is.

Also, if the Honorverse did have better computers, what you propose would be among the last things likely to yield to programming. They'll be generating symphonies, proving theorems (even in "interesting" fashions), and developing new weapon systems more or less on their own before they're good military and political analysts.

At that point, humans probably won't have much to do but amuse ourselves and hope our silicon overlords appreciate us as pets. Is that something to expect in 23 centuries? Maybe. But if it's hard to suspend disbelief that that won't be achieved already, everything else is likely harder.
I've been playing with computers as long as I've been playing with myself. At one point, I became independently ambidextrous.
... The post! The post! It's like a minefield, for the mind!
And, Oh the things I can achieve with Honorverse computing power. Why, I could take over the world, Pinky

The same thing you do every night? :P

Ahem! :lol:

I disagree Jeff - the processing power itself (not the programming) is a given. Or the banking system in the Honorverse would have long ago folded. Secure data chips - secure against unsavory elements for the duration of those weeks/months long trips, etc.? The near instantaneous analysis of thousands upon thousands of missiles and counter-missiles before packing it in, for offense and defense? The herculean computing power required even for Honorverse elevators? (lol) The enormous computing power needed to crunch wormhole metrics so you won't get dead? On and on and on? Puh-lease.

The computing power is there. Trust me on that. The programming isn't. Especially if computer advances follows the same trend as today and especially if the prediction of the death of Moore's Law is incorrect and the doubling of transistors every two years continues. Or Moore's Law is circumvented somehow. As it seems it will be.

At any rate, part of my disbelief is that Honorverse computing power isn't at the level of really expert "expert systems."

In fact, I'd wager all of my casino's earnings on a bet that a simple minicomp is to our current super computers as the computing power of a simple modern wristwatch is to Nasa's early computers - (which were the most powerful at the time) -- no contest.

The reason, as kzt is fond of saying, is plot. RFC doesn't like automation

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Relax   » Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:39 pm

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I don't recall if RFC has ever stated when artificial wombs were invented...

Anyone?
_________
Tally Ho!
Relax
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by cthia   » Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:55 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:Manticore's had a bad, bad experience already with defense-mindededness with Icarus. They had another with complacency with Thunderbolt. They needed Apollo in use to keep Haven off-balance and - theoretically - stave off an enormous Havenite hammer falling on Trevor's Star, Grayson or - in their wildest nightmares - Manticore. Keeping them off-balance was looking out for the safety of Manticore first, just indirectly - and, for all they knew or suspected, all the more effectively for it.
And remeber they had a few other factors screwing things up. Manticore drastically underestimated how much more effective Apollo was - and therefore their pre-usage models underestimated how much of a shock it would give Haven -- how backed in a corner Haven would be.

Second, the refits to get additional Apollo units hit way more delays than expected. So the vulnerability window between first use and wide deployment was much broader. Now sure how having more Apollo available would have changed things - certainly home fleet would have done better - but I don't know if deployments and actions might have been different enough to convince Haven's whole government that Beatrice was a hopeless option and shouldn't be launched.

I don't know Johnathan. Remember, the entire strategy behind Beatrice was predicated on the premise that Apollo wasn't widely deployed - that Eighth Fleet was its only recipient. If Home Fleet would have been able to achieve a significant opening launch of Apollo birds, I think the Havenites would have bugged out - thinking they were in error regarding the RMN's Apollo deployment across the board.

D'Orville might have been able to bluff the rest of the way. Surrender - or die.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by kzt   » Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:01 pm

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cthia wrote:I don't know Johnathan. Remember, the entire strategy behind Beatrice was predicated on the premise that Apollo wasn't widely deployed - that Eighth Fleet was its only recipient. If Home Fleet would have been able to achieve a significant opening launch of Apollo birds, I think the Havenites would have bugged out - thinking they were in error regarding the RMN's Apollo deployment across the board.

It's been a a while since I did the math, but I think 8th fleet could have obliterated 2nd and 5th by itself. They would have been in pretty bad shape at the end, and this relies on 8th opening fire on 2nd early, well before 2nd is in powered range, but the firepower they have is enormous.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by pnakasone   » Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:37 pm

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Thomas Theisman did point out that they had two choices since Manticore was not simply willing to talk at that point. Surrender or try for the all out victory. Even with the attack option he pointed out that he could be wrong about the upgrade status of RMN and would be sending the fleet to its destruction. As well as that even a victory would be very costly to them.

Of the 488 capital ships committed the Republic lost (destroyed or surrendered) all but the 35 ships which escaped. The Manticore alliance commited 247 capital ships not counting 26 light cruisers and lost (destroyed or unrepairable) all but 30.

When it comes down to it what matters is not that Manticore alliance should have guessed that the Republic would try an all or nothing attack but the fact is that the Republics attack was defeated.


I can not remember which book said it first but it was that not that it was impossible for some one to attack against the capital system in such a way but no one could do it with out weakening themselves critically to a counter attack if it failed. In Mission of Honor no one in the Republic government really had any confidence that massive defenses of Haven system would have been able to hold off the Eighth fleet when it showed up if it was there to attack the system and demand its surrender.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by cthia   » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:21 pm

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pnakasone wrote:Thomas Theisman did point out that they had two choices since Manticore was not simply willing to talk at that point. Surrender or try for the all out victory. Even with the attack option he pointed out that he could be wrong about the upgrade status of RMN and would be sending the fleet to its destruction. As well as that even a victory would be very costly to them.

Of the 488 capital ships committed the Republic lost (destroyed or surrendered) all but the 35 ships which escaped. The Manticore alliance commited 247 capital ships not counting 26 light cruisers and lost (destroyed or unrepairable) all but 30.

When it comes down to it what matters is not that Manticore alliance should have guessed that the Republic would try an all or nothing attack but the fact is that the Republics attack was defeated.


I can not remember which book said it first but it was that not that it was impossible for some one to attack against the capital system in such a way but no one could do it with out weakening themselves critically to a counter attack if it failed. In Mission of Honor no one in the Republic government really had any confidence that massive defenses of Haven system would have been able to hold off the Eighth fleet when it showed up if it was there to attack the system and demand its surrender.

What it amounts to, to me is that Eighth Fleet was running a bluff with Cutworm. The bluff backfired and they paid for it. War is 'being about it," as Honor would say. But that particular bluff had so many things wrong with it, IMHO...

1) It prematurely tipped its hand. It broke at least two cardinal rules...
i) Never show your hold card until you're ready to play.
ii) Never show or draw your weapon unless you're prepared to use it. The RMN wasn't prepared.

2) It indirectly shouted bluff. It screamed bluff. Theisman wasn't a genius because he was able to figure it out. A child on the playground would have figured it out...
"If you're so bad, then why not act like your treecats and go straight for the jugular? Why is the most powerful fleet in the galaxy truckin' around in our rear areas?"

3) It informed Haven where the Salamander - the RMN's greatest asset and component of the Fleet - wouldn't be. She wouldn't be Home!

Also, if I might note, textev stated that Harrington probably knew that Haven could roll the dice that way - that she probably never thought that they would, but that they could.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by pnakasone   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:16 am

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cthia wrote:What it amounts to, to me is that Eighth Fleet was running a bluff with Cutworm. The bluff backfired and they paid for it. War is 'being about it," as Honor would say. But that particular bluff had so many things wrong with it, IMHO...

1) It prematurely tipped its hand. It broke at least two cardinal rules...
i) Never show your hold card until you're ready to play.
ii) Never show or draw your weapon unless you're prepared to use it. The RMN wasn't prepared.

2) It indirectly shouted bluff. It screamed bluff. Theisman wasn't a genius because he was able to figure it out. A child on the playground would have figured it out...
"If you're so bad, then why not act like your treecats and go straight for the jugular? Why is the most powerful fleet in the galaxy truckin' around in our rear areas?"

3) It informed Haven where the Salamander - the RMN's greatest asset and component of the Fleet - wouldn't be. She wouldn't be Home!

Also, if I might note, textev stated that Harrington probably knew that Haven could roll the dice that way - that she probably never thought that they would, but that they could.


Cutworm was a bluff but what could the alliance really do they had to try and see if they could get Haven to pull back ships from the front lines and defend its rear area production sites but not get into any attentional battles to give them time to build ships with the new technology. As well as to get Haven to redirect resources away from shipbuilding to rebuilding the infrastructure of the attacked systems. Realistic only the Solon operation of Cutworm III was a failure to the goal of destroying infrastructure.

As readers we knew for sure that alliance alliance was bluffing about its actual strength. Theisman even though he strongly suspected it was a bluff had to deal with member systems demanding that they get reinforced to prevent them from getting their infrastructure turned scrap and will not care how sure he is that the alliance is bluffing. No matter what Theisman had to consider the possibility that alliance was not bluffing and was attempting to draw him in to making a false move to exploit.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Senior Chief   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 2:26 am

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I wondered why after the attack on orbiting infra-structure of Honors home word climate change did not occur. The infra-structure is larger than any meteor strike that impacted our own earth and the impact craters are huge. All the dust, ashes, debrie thrown into the air would cover the earth thus changing the climate. Look at our own world history... Just wondering why...
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by kzt   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:14 am

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That's not the case at all. Chicxulub crater is over 180 km wide and 20 km deep, and was caused by an impact equivalent on the order of 100,000,000 megatons.

The total energy of the impacts from the attack is much, much less.
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Re: Suspension of Disbelief.
Post by Tenshinai   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:27 am

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crewdude48 wrote:For me, it is the prevalence of religion in the Honorverse. Most people seem to have one and actually believe in it. In the modern world, you see religion well into the process of atrophy and fading away in the more developed part of the world. Even when people hold onto their religion, it tends to become more cultural than actually religious. Heck, there is an entire branch of Judaism that doesn't actually believe in a god. I know it is Mr. Weber's world, and as he is a preacher, he and I are probably not on the same page at all, but I suspect that very little in the way of modern religions will survive in any sort of recognizable form even half as far into the future as the Honorverse.


That´s probably the biggest "objection" for me as well. Places like Grayson? Sure, of course they´re going to have religion as a bigtime thing.
But Beowulf or Manticore having such massive presence and normality of religion?
The probability of that is just ridiculously low.

Even more so when you look at how there is a clear link between high education, techlevel and general level of societal affluency, and low religiousness.
And then you think about exactly what kind of people are the ones who are most likely to afford an "exodus" alternative.
Oh yes, exactly the groups and nations least likely to be religious.


#####

After some 23 centuries, I don't expect to see a recognizable human culture at all


Why not? You can look back in our own current history and find obvious similarities in ancient grafitti and modern culture without even the slightest need to adjust.

Of course there´s change, but one thing you note if you start looking a lot at history is that people remains people.

Relatively retarded medicine and computers are harder to believe than the gee-whiz economics.


Actually, i´m having a problem seeing why so many people here point out how dreadfully bad the computers are?

Honorverse essentially has a modern PC(minimum) in less size than a USB memory. Considering how computer development in the real world is slowing down, with very little real progress in the last decade or so beyond dieshrinks that are starting to become unrealistic(as blatantly shown by Intel´s inability to launch Broadwell, troubles with Skylake and the 1 year delay added to Cannonlake, while NVidia and AMD have had massive trouble progressing with shrinks at all).

I could even make halfdecent argument about how Honorverse computers are overly optimistic and therefore unrealistic.

And medicine that can cure most things(given enough resources and effort) and even regrow body parts? How the heck is that retarded?

Consider the fact that today, medicine is in many ways fumbling in the dark with 4/5ths of diseases. Lots of medications are used without being anywhere near understanding how or why it works.
There are hundreds, perhaps thousands of diseases known today which modern medicine have not the faintest clue how they work, and many more that they only have very rough understanding of.

I think a lot of people are blinded by all the "amazing discoveries" or "wonder treatments" and dont understand or realise that those are barely a drop in an ocean.

Most people don´t realise that "modern medicine" is actually quite primitive, lacks understanding about most things and use guesstimates(or simply wild guessing) far more often than facts.

Just as one example, it was only last year that it was found that contrary to what everyone knew, the human body actually DO have a lymphatic system that goes to the brain area of the head.
This was discovered by CHANCE, a physically present mass of "biotubing" that noone had noticed until just recently.

And that isn´t even an isolated incident, just the most recent one i heard of, as things like that keep happening every few years.

So no, i see no reason to think RFCs computers and medicine is unlikely.


Not having advanced aliens is easy.


Extremely easy indeed! As it is probably not so easy to step up to be "advanced", and the number aliens found so far, well they might find advanced ones in another thousand years or so, given current progress.

Maybe.

#####

For me, it's got to be the mind-control nanotech.


Extremely unlikely indeed, but not completely impossible i think. Intelligence agencies have shown that "programming" people in a very limited way is possible, just utterly unreliable and doesn´t work >9 times out of 10.

It still has been done without the use of any biocircuits or whatever.

So, probably unrealistic but not entirely out of the question.

The nanotech just doesn't fit - they can't make decent AI or even smart control software given tons of molycircs


Actual AI as opposed to a wellwritten program trying to fake being intelligent, is vastly harder to achieve than commonly thought today.
What´s called AI today is nearly completely rubbish and has almost nothing to do with real AI.

As I wrote in my other post, Honorverse automated heuristics are pathetic - computers seem unable to recognise the most obvious and predictable things without human intervention - when implemented on a shipful of known hardware with purpose-built sensors.


The problem with heuristics on a warship is that it´s more dangerous to get a false positive to act on, than it is to not act.
And if you look at heuristic software today, just look at how often you get false positives from antivirus software!
And AV software still works in an environment that is drastically less complex.

Oh, and the unfakeable tongue-barcodes.


Did anyone actually claim that they were unfakeable?

#####

For me it's the fact that somehow humans managed to come up with the babies to populate thousands of worlds with populations into the billions. It's pretty clear that the major controlling factor of human population growth is the level of female education (absent the use/threat of force). If your women are educated enough to contribute to a star-faring civilization (college minimum) then you are going to really struggle to just maintain replacement level baby production, much less manage to fill up thousands of planets.


Nah, nothing strange at all about that.

Easy access to resources and space, as well as positive pressure, and probably intentional, organised matchmaking setups to make sure colonisation doesn´t fail, people have a tendency to be much more interested in multiplying if they can see very little negatives with it.

And then of course, there´s prolong and much better medicine.

And i might mention how some current real world researchers state that if people today stopped eating so much crap, we would instantly add 10-20 years to average life expectancy.
And that if we got rid of all the nasty chemicals we surround us with today, we would instantly add another 20-50 years of life expectancy.

And yes, they figured that right now today, an average human when born ought to have a potential life expectancy somewhere in the 130 years area. Before future fictional prolong is even mentioned.

#####

The religious aspect actually makes perfect sense to me. From what I can judge, there are very few 'religious' planets. Grayson, Masada, etc.. True Zealots. Most (like Manticore) could probably be compared to the modern day USA only slightly less.


The problem with that is that modern day USA stands out in the developed world as being hyperreligious.
And the feel you get with Manticore is more bible-belt USA than California or NY.

Basically, religion is something that 80% or so say they believe in, with maybe 10% being a deep believer and another 10-20% going to a worship once a week or once a month because its how they were raised and its a community building thing and they want their children to be raised that way.


And for me as a north European, that is nigh-on religious fanaticism.
10-20% going to a worship once a week?
Try 1-2% and you get closer to the levels you find in most of the developed parts of the world. Still probably too high.
The Islamic middle east and Arabian peninsula is about the only place you get those kind of numbers outside of USA.
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