Fate of the Solarian League

Jeff Engel, nice post (it is two posts above and I am taking mercy on the Honorverse electrons by not quoting it...)

I would also remind folks that part of the "Harrington Strategy" is to make friends with the 'new' polities than emerge from the SL.

And they have to do that by walking a very thin and wobbly rope between (1) Doing damage that leads to the breakup and (2) Doing damage that makes ex-SL systems frightened enough to spend the considerable blood and treasure to build a major Battle Fleet.

It's like scaring someone by surprising them at Halloween; you want them to react, then laugh and enjoy the moment with you--not pull out a gun and shoot you.

It's a high-risk business and I'll be interested in seeing how the MWW pulls in off.

Hutch wrote:Jeff Engel, nice post (it is two posts above and I am taking mercy on the Honorverse electrons by not quoting it...)

I would also remind folks that part of the "Harrington Strategy" is to make friends with the 'new' polities than emerge from the SL.

And they have to do that by walking a very thin and wobbly rope between (1) Doing damage that leads to the breakup and (2) Doing damage that makes ex-SL systems frightened enough to spend the considerable blood and treasure to build a major Battle Fleet.

It's like scaring someone by surprising them at Halloween; you want them to react, then laugh and enjoy the moment with you--not pull out a gun and shoot you.

It's a high-risk business and I'll be interested in seeing how the MWW pulls in off.

The way they treated the Meyers system is going to help a lot with this - as an example of how the SEM is willing to deal with ex portions of the SL. Killed the FF units present, and then recognized a local government with no attempt to annex them (place them in protective custody). When May sector splits off, and Manticore says "Welcome to the League of Independent States" (metaphorically of course), it will also help to convince other sectors that the Manties are no danger to anyone who doesn't attack them.

JeffEngel wrote:How long? How long do you suppose it would take what kinds of fragments of the League where to build what?

I think there are going to be a broad range of "Kinds" from the barely civilized OFS Helots to Decadent Core worlds above anything as crass as heavy industry like shipyards.

There's the Renaissance Factor which will secede early and form an island of peace and prosperity; They probably already have shipyards to support their combined SDF forces, and "better than SLN" tech in place to build R&D upon. They might be planning on relying on Technodyne's Yildin yards but that would seem to be a bit of stupid arrogance on the MAlign's part; they would plan on being totally self-sufficient to insure that "island of peace and tranquility" bait for attracting other successor states.

JeffEngel wrote:Systems with military shipyards, with realistic working SDF's, and with the beginnings of a military R&D sector will be likely nuclei for new states. If you don't have one of those in your successor state, you're either going to have to develop that in a hurry or you're too likely to have to surrender, in whole or in pieces, to another state (or states) that have them. But that's going to be something going on over the course of decades of warfare and threats of warfare. By the end of that - call it 1970, 1980 P.D. - everyone in former League states will be fighting with fleets using FTL communications, multi-drive missiles, and pod-laying wallers - if you don't have those by then, you've already fallen out of the game.

I've expressed before the belief that Arms Merchants from outside the Solarian League are going to be prominent in the spread of at least "Manticore Lite" such as Erewhon is providing the Maya Sector. Erewhon/Maya, Alizon, Zanzibar, Haven, The Andermani, and eventually Manticore and Grayson again. Possibly the Phoenix Cluster, Jewish League, Midgard, Matapan, and Asgard groups are going to have shipyards (with variable miltary capabilities) that are outside of the GA's line of fire and can build "better than SLN Tech" ships of all sizes.

According to the Harrington Doctrine, Manticore has to make and adhere to "Bilateral Mutual Defense Treaties" with SL Successor States, and the would imply the provision of "Manticore Lite" system defenses -- LAC squadrons and System Defense Missiles a la Moriarty and Mycroft systems at minimum. With the formation of the GA, I would expect "export versions" of Havenite tech to enter the mix as well.

It won't matter a great deal to Manticore or the GA where Successor States get the arms, because all of the possible sources from within and without the GA are going to be hard pressed to meet the demand for System Defense assets -- and Force Projection assets when things begin to stabilize.

The aforementioned "Decadent Core Systems" are going to be looking to buy "better than SLN" tech rather than building the capability to build their own defenses. They're going to want upgraded defenses NOW rather than five to ten years down the road.

There are going to be SLN formations that are going to turn into SDFs or Mercenaries, and a lot of gullible systems are going to see them as a cheap alternative and buy into the ISLN myth.

There are going to be SLN formations -- especially FF formations -- that are going to turn Warlord and prey on the aforementioned OFS Helot worlds; They're going to eventually need spares and replacements from somewhere. Perhaps they'll build their own, but more likely they'll turn to surviving ex-SLN suppliers.

I think in the long-run, more systems will look to outside arms dealers to build and maintain their SDF/Navies than will go to the expense and delay inherent in ramping up organic military building capacity.

Fallsfromtrees wrote:The way they treated the Meyers system is going to help a lot with this - as an example of how the SEM is willing to deal with ex portions of the SL. Killed the FF units present, and then recognized a local government with no attempt to annex them (place them in protective custody).

Minor quibble: Adm Gold Peak took the Meyers system without firing a shot; Adm Thurston's FF task force was captured entire and intact.

Weird Harold wrote:

Fallsfromtrees wrote:The way they treated the Meyers system is going to help a lot with this - as an example of how the SEM is willing to deal with ex portions of the SL. Killed the FF units present, and then recognized a local government with no attempt to annex them (place them in protective custody).

Minor quibble: Adm Gold Peak took the Meyers system without firing a shot; Adm Thurston's FF task force was captured entire and intact.

It's also a fine message to Frontier Fleet and those who are "defended" by it:

For Frontier Fleet: you can't fight, you can't run, but you can certainly surrender.

For the systems under them: the presence of FF units really doesn't make much difference to your options once GA forces come over the wall.

OFS governors have a choice between being Barregos and leading off a new, independent state, or being Verrochio: impoverished, imprisoned, and impotent once the GA shows up. And they've got that choice only insofar as they can clean up their act and opt out of the League before it's taken out of their hands entirely.

Well - some of them may be able to select Option C: Fake Barregos, without being much interested in the welfare of their systems, but able to fake it tolerably well and get enough support propping them up from transtellars and/or Alignment agents. But then, over time, the difference between the Barregos Plan and the Fake Barregos Plan may fade - if your power base is your little star nation rather than the OFS bureaucracy, you're going to take better care of it or you'll lose it. I suspect the Renaissance Factor may well hack off its Alignment ties and bury them in the Alignment's plan isn't looking promising down the line - in effect, going from Fake Barregos to More-or-Less Barregos in the Core.

Hi Harold,

I wonder how the GA is going to deal with systems who want to play conquistador. While they can't play savior for every threatened system, getting away with it means you eventually have another monster big enough to threaten the security of the SEM....

Don

n7axw wrote:Hi Harold,

I wonder how the GA is going to deal with systems who want to play conquistador. While they can't play savior for every threatened system, getting away with it means you eventually have another monster big enough to threaten the security of the SEM....

Don

Problems that impact "other people" go on the queue. As more important problems are dealt with and resources become available the government can decide to deal with it, or not.

JeffEngel wrote:Well - some of them may be able to select Option C: Fake Barregos, without being much interested in the welfare of their systems, but able to fake it tolerably well and get enough support propping them up from transtellars and/or Alignment agents. But then, over time, the difference between the Barregos Plan and the Fake Barregos Plan may fade - if your power base is your little star nation rather than the OFS bureaucracy, you're going to take better care of it or you'll lose it.

A lot would depend on the intelligence of the "Fake Barregos" or "FF Adm turned Warlord." You'd think that would-be kings would think longer term than immediate gratification, but there are ample examples -- in RL, Fiction in genral, and the Honorverse specifically -- that would-be kings/dictators have very little foresight and don't care about their subjects or the future as long as they have gold-plated plumbing.

JeffEngel wrote:I suspect the Renaissance Factor may well hack off its Alignment ties and bury them in the Alignment's plan isn't looking promising down the line - in effect, going from Fake Barregos to More-or-Less Barregos in the Core.

I doubt that the RF is going to cut its MAlign ties since it is going to BE the MAlign for all practical purposes. I do think they are going to go a lot slower than originally planned because they're not going to pick up as many pieces as they need to meet the original schedule.

n7axw wrote:I wonder how the GA is going to deal with systems who want to play conquistador. While they can't play savior for every threatened system, getting away with it means you eventually have another monster big enough to threaten the security of the SEM....

KZT is probably on the right track. There's also the communications lag to consider; re-conquest of treaty partners is pretty much guaranteed because Manticore/GA has to be seen as abiding by their treaties.

It is unlikely that Manticore/GA will be able to sign mutual defense treaties with every successor state, but it can certainly encourage mutual defense pacts among those that don't sign on with the GA. Treaty partners get defended first and first claim on defense assets, but that won't conflict with a GA push to stomp any serious conquistador threats or arms sales to threatened non-ally systems.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I wonder how the GA is going to deal with systems who want to play conquistador. While they can't play savior for every threatened system, getting away with it means you eventually have another monster big enough to threaten the security of the SEM....

KZT is probably on the right track. There's also the communications lag to consider; re-conquest of treaty partners is pretty much guaranteed because Manticore/GA has to be seen as abiding by their treaties.

It is unlikely that Manticore/GA will be able to sign mutual defense treaties with every successor state, but it can certainly encourage mutual defense pacts among those that don't sign on with the GA. Treaty partners get defended first and first claim on defense assets, but that won't conflict with a GA push to stomp any serious conquistador threats or arms sales to threatened non-ally systems.

And they've got a variety of response options. For a long while, going in and blowing away anything an identified bad guy has in a system and seizing the high orbitals will be really easy.

The harder point is going to be occupation forces and creating a more agreeable government at the far end and identifying the enemies at the near one. ONI is going to have to start tracking all the likely threats to every mutual defense treaty partner (MDTP - I suppose "friend" may work too), which is going to be a whole lot of work. If they can farm that out to treaty partners (and trust them), all the better. If they can farm that out among friends who are also friends and neighbors to one another (fine job for Gendarmerie intelligence people who find themselves without an employer and with enough integrity to be safe alone with a treecat) - even better. But it's going to be a challenge for someone, and the GA is the default someone.

Occupation and nation-rebuilding once you punch out the villain planet is another thing. If you are very, very lucky, it's another Warnecke and Marsh: a nasty clique that can be just lopped off a planet that will be a perfectly good friend and neighbor thereafter. If you are especially unlucky, it's Masada.... Granted, I don't think the League has many Masada counterparts, but if a pirate state shares the loot and frames the struggle as a national one, you may find yourself with some work to do. If you're punching out the villain state on behalf of a friend, hopefully - reasonably - you can count on the friend to take care of the worst of the occupation requirements. The Talbott Quadrant is working up some ground forces that can play that role for the SEM in that area particularly; happily, it's not the sort of thing that takes a Havenite Wars tech base. Powered armor intervention groups and KEW from orbit as needed may be good to offer in some cases, but again, that's a matter of making a small amount of people and a better tech base do a critical bit of work while friends provide the vast majority of the bodies.

A few examples - Mobius and Monica are already some - should indicate to open-minded, decently informed sorts that popping up as a villain state the GA can spot and poking them or their friends just isn't a rewarding plan. The Alignment's future, for a long, long time, is going to depend on not being locked on for retaliation. (In effect, what goes for their ships goes for their state.)

I suspect that the GA will be pushing a lot of system defense missiles (too big to be shot from a ship) and LACs, since these make fine systems defense systems, but are fairly useless for projecting force beyond the system. I short tough for a warlord to crack, but difficult to convert to being a warlord.