Lacöon I

A point that has been raised in the books was that with Lacoon 1, Manticore and now the rest of the GA is effectivly operating with a far more effective "interior" line of communications even though they are physicaly (other than the Manticore wormhole junction) dealing with vastly greater differences in actual distance.

It is the wormhole junction that earlier let the MMM and various treaty partners and systems with Most Favord Trade Statis not only lower the travel time but operate at signifcanlty lower wormhole transit fees. Lacoon I effectivly blew a giant hole in the ability of the League to have goods moved between systems. You have to think about the ability to go out to Erwhon and then end up (via the wormholes) literally being able to get to the other side of the SL (than the direction of Erwhon) faster than if you had started in that other direction in the first place. Your ship operations will cost you less, you will have the wormhole fees but you can get there FASTER. Time really is money when you are operating a merchant ship.
It also slammed anyone outside the MMM and allied parties who were already in transit (in any direction) that had a course which included using a Manticore Juntion leg to get somewhere (and probably back again) Given the realities of business, those ships will almost certainly HAVE to go the long way (through hyperspace) to make deliveries. Those who had goods waiting to be picked up by themselves may also find that some MMM or GA partners merchant shipping has picked up the haul when the original carrier is a month or more overdue.

Lacoon 1 also took away all the carrying capacity of the MMM ships that are no longer being allowed into Solly Space. The capasity is NOT THERE ANYMORE. The remaining SL flagged ships (and those from places outside the SL (or in the Verge) can raise the price of shipping (supply and demand) but at some point people are going to run into one (or both/all) of the fillowing problems

1) NO ship with space (of any kind) is going in the direction(s) they need stuff sent,

2) Buyers and sellers can't tack the higher shipping costs onto the price as a surcharge and so can't afford to ship

. 3) The impact of lack of sales, inability to deliver and mounting inventories is going to force companies to slow way down - I expect a number of manufactures of goods sold to other systems and companies supplying the merchant trade are going to get hurt badly.

4) The SLN is going to start draining off capacity (available space on board) or actual whole ships to support it's logistics support system. Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet are going to need more of everything now that they are in a shooting war and their logistics are not "optimized" to meet the present crisis. They will be faces with some problems. Those include having to divert ships to resupply them rather than send them directly out- (warships are faster than the freighters) unless they want to just order them out with materials on-hand and hope it will be enough. Of course, given the surviablilty of most SLN ships in an engagement with RMN/RHN warships, it may not make any difference. Then there is moving materials to where they will be needed as SLN gets it's plans organized. I suspect your average FF Fleet operations node in the direction of the GA is going to be very understaffed in support people and equipment to meet the demands of combat operations.

5) MANY people (and systems) are going to eventually discover that some things they need may be more expensive and not up to the "old" quality fo what they could get from the SL Core and other worlds before Lacoon 1 but they will start buying local or dealing in other directions to get what they want or need.

6) Of those nimble enough to do all the "right" things to survive what we know as Lacoon I are going to get slammed even harder, right along with everybody else when Lacoon II goes into force. Manticore has effectivly closed off a lot of the "SL Controlled" wormholes and all that recent alternate planing is down the toilet. It cuts off, along with the SLN, many of the Protectorate worlds and a lot of just Independent systems, all those avenues of getting at the GA other than directly (more or less depding on range) for the SLN and SL flagged merchant shipping.

Just what exactly are the Mandarins going to do? Take a private yacht out to where a squadron of RMN BC (backed up by a CLAC and its LACs) are holding the SL end of a worm hole and threaten to use a ruler on their knuckles?
You know that even with vastly overwhelming numbers of SLN ships hitting one of these wormhole ends to take it back, RMN is going to devastate any attacking force even if it gets pushed off the wormhole and (mostly) either goes back through the wormhole or goes into hyperspace to get away. Yes, RMN will take losses but nothing compaired to the SLN ships.
That kind of assault on a RMN Task Force held wormhole makes island hopping in the Pacific durring WW II look like a series of little bar fights.

Zakharra wrote:Where it can, the SL is/has cut financial ties to the SEM/GA on as many levels as possible.

Looks like the discussion is about the size of the can!

Does anyone else notice resonances with the Safehold series?

On the matter of SL collapse, has anyone seen the applicability of complexity theory? This has provided a way to understand the dynamics of feedback loops through recursive functions. A critical system has elements of: strong interaction between independent agents, adaption, and decay. It is important that the odds on the maximum possible failure thru systemic risk rises as an EXPONENTIAL function of the effective size. MALIGN seems to be assuming the SL is in a near-critical state, like a critical mass of nuclear material before the first neutron. Or a sub-critical mass designed to mate with another sub-critical mass. Explosives are used to shift to critical shape so fast that the bomb explodes, not melting down like a reactor. MALIGN seems to be trying to supply the explosives in a way that will let them gain control.

Economies are complex systems. The mandarins may be assuming the mass is still sub-critical. But is it?

The availability of small computers depends on complication not being the same as complexity. An IC chip is quite complicated, but has simplex failure modes, not complex. In programming, the problem is how to get the desired complication without getting dangerous complexity.

An example: a few decades back, much of the US northeast had a blackout. It was traced back to a small triggering event. It only blew the system because the system was under heavy stress. I remember reading that one generator station operator saw the draw on his station rising fast, and cut it off from the system several minutes before the failure. They were on Long Island, and the still operating station was able to supply power to nearby ones to operate the supporting equipment needed to start them up again, They did the same to their neighbors. The article estimated this allowed the system to start up again much faster. Hurricane Sandy provided a much larger triggering event, but a number of places were on micro-grids, which disconnected from the primary grid and kept the hospital, college, business, etc. operating. A micro-grid design with loose interconnection and an automatic disconnect when needed is much more stable.

Just how strongly interconnected are those regional centers?

DDHv wrote:Just how strongly interconnected are those regional centers?

Given a week+ transit time, not very.

Zakharra wrote:Those are all very good points lyonheart. I hadn't considered a few of them, but I feel that my initial point still stands. Where it can, the SL is/has cut financial ties to the SEM/GA on as many levels as possible. Although I do wonder what are the fees being paid in? Anyone in the GA taking Solarian currency knows it's going to be worthless sooner than later.

I tend to agree with your thinking. But there are a couple of factors that could make it difficult for the League to impose it's will on this matter.

First, there is corruption which you can be assured is not restricted to fleet admirals. Where might a conveniently placed bribe enable previously existing arrangements to continue without interference?

Second is geograpghy. The further a League member is from the center, the more tempting it will be to ignore the wishes of the center in matters critical to that member's economy.

Finally, the League is not a tightly controlled entity. Members are independent star nations in their own right, except in times of war. Getting that declaration of war through didn't sound very promising...

Don

The war eliminates SLN missile resupply issues. A warship fights one battle, perhaps does not even fire its missiles, and its plasma cloud no longer needs any missiles.

Lets suppose that the Mandarins- that is who is going to be making the decisions- decide that in order to survive, they have to cut all financial ties for the SL with Manticour, Haven and the members of the GA.

What are they going to have to do?
1st freeze the assets of both the governments and then any individual companies and people from Manticore, Haven etc in the reach of the SL.

Can they do that? What reason? The obvious one would be with that those Star Nations- are at war with the SL. Except nobody has gotten around to having the SL declare war on Manticore. Yes, from Manticore's perspective, at the point Fillerta crossed into the Manticore System by entering the hyper limit a state of war has existed FOR MANTICORE and allied parties, but the SL still hasn't declared war.

So they have to come up with some other reason. Lets say they do.

So they issue order requiring the freezing of ALL assets including monies on deposit by the GA member Star Nation, their citizens and businesses chartered/controlled from those Star Nations To ALL the Star Nations that are members of the SL. And exactly how many of them are going to take a directive like that from the SL bureaucracy?

They could (and should) nationalize all holding by the GA Star Nations (and citizens etc) and take control. Who is going to actually do that. I'm sure many local System OFS Governors would LOVE to do that and rake the money and other assets into their own account but you could suspect that the Mandarins will want accountings of what is seized and control of physical assets and property (real estate etc) be registered in some SL controlled entitiy.

Who is going to do that?

Are there laws -in existence- that let the bureaucrats do that? Do they need judicial approval? Does any action like that HAVE to be enforced on SL member worlds?

The reaction from the GA members should be interesting. Seize ONLY SL Government assets. The reaction from both the SL member worlds and any number of Independnt systems is also going to be interesting. What authority does the SL have to "take" property of other Systems and individuals when not in a time of Legal war.

Things are going to get messy real fast as people, companies and governments take complaints to LOCAL System Courts and Judges to block any attempt to confiscate goods and accounts.

is any one else thinking the corruption and bureaucracy of the league will really work against them, supplies sold off, side deals made. ALso, the eague never had to efficient in business, it had sheer size and quantity on its side, but with the war, quality and speed will matter, and that are not the league strong suit

SYED wrote:is any one else thinking the corruption and bureaucracy of the league will really work against them, supplies sold off, side deals made. ALso, the eague never had to efficient in business, it had sheer size and quantity on its side, but with the war, quality and speed will matter, and that are not the league strong suit

Have you ever read a history of the USN 1939-1945? Let's just say the USN was not exactly at the top of their game when the war started, and both underestimated and had a distinct lack of intel on the IJN.

SYED wrote:is any one else thinking the corruption and bureaucracy of the league will really work against them, supplies sold off, side deals made. ALso, the eague never had to efficient in business, it had sheer size and quantity on its side, but with the war, quality and speed will matter, and that are not the league strong suit

Have you ever read a history of the USN 1939-1945? Let's just say the USN was not exactly at the top of their game when the war started, and both underestimated and had a distinct lack of intel on the IJN.

kzt wrote:Have you ever read a history of the USN 1939-1945? Let's just say the USN was not exactly at the top of their game when the war started, and both underestimated and had a distinct lack of intel on the IJN.

However, it was not effectively controlled by enemy agents who had been working for centuries to discourage competence.