Long term consequences of the League's collapse

n7axw wrote:I think that MAD probably has application against state actors. But I'm not so sure against non-state actors such as religious fanatics, political extremists, etc. All it would take would be the wrong weapon in the wrong hands to ruin some planet's day. All things are possible when chaos is king.

Don

True enough, but there are religious fanatics and political extremists in the current political situation (and probably have been suc h persons since PD 1) and it hasn't happened so far...but I will agree, in times of confusion, chaos, and fear, the odds do increase.

Fascinating thread and I have enjoyed reading all of it. Here's my two dirhams worth.

One thing Honor said in her 'grand strategy' was that the SEM had to take a role in bringing about stable states out of the wreck of the SL, states that would be stable and workable enough to engage profitably with the GA--and other ex-SL states--so that they had no need for an agressive stance.

And I think that has a chance to work in the Core--most of those planets haven't experienced war (or major interstellar economic crisis) in centuries (think about that for a minute--we've gone about 70 years since the last war on earth between the "Great Powers" and most people can't concieve of such a war again--how would the population feel after 600-800 years of peace?). I think (IMHO--YMMV) that most of those Core planets are terrified of some of the bogeymen discussed here and will be highly receptive to local planets and groups (plus the GA offering to get trade started back up) and not be in a conquering mode. And these are the planets with the economies and technology to cause the GA some serious heartburn in the long-term.

So that is where the GA will concentrate their activities in establishing peaceful and stable polities. And they already have a huge databank of knowledge about these systems, thanks to the Merchant Marine.

As for the Shell, I would identify that as the most likely location for trouble--the systems there are not a well-developed as the Core worlds, but still have the wherewithall to build warships and they may sense an opportunity to settle old scores or carve themselves a little more 'elbow room'. So if EE violations (which I think are unlikely) or wars break out, it's likely to happen there. After all, Roczak and Barregos are planning to have to fight off other aggressive 'warlords' who might want to add the Maya Sector to their fiefdoms. Some of those may come from nearby Shell systems.

In the Protectorates, I simply do not see the OFS and the Transtellars lasting, once the people on those planets figure out what is going on and realize that Frontier Fleet is no longer a going concern. Yes, some will be KEW'ed and some will dissolve into chaos after winning, but except for rare occurences, I don't think there will be an OFS office or Transtellar planet in the Protectorates within 3 years of where we are at in the history. What happens to them in the long term may be...unpleasant..but it will not be due to the overall war, and hopefully many systems, once out of OFS/Transtellar control and having solved thier internal conflicts will look around for partners in terms of protection from pirates and other aggressors--and to make treaties with the GA.

What about FF? Well, that portion that doesn't get blown away in the coming fight may well end up in what amounts to be full-out rebellion against the SL, teaming up with local systems (perhaps with a FF Admiral in charge, perhaps in cooperation with newly-free systems) and starting a new polity on their own (something like this from Pyun would not surprise me). And how to protect themselves from SLN SD's? Treaties (and pods) from the GA (or Erewhon or Andermann, who I think will do quite well from the...interesting times.

As for the Verge and other planets, they didn't depend on trade and economics with the SL to any great degree and ruled themselves, so I don't see major changes there. Oh, some self-styled Warnecke clone may try to do a little conquering on the side, but that will just encourage their neighbors to arm and look for the biggest bruiser in the galaxy for assistance.

Everyone is quite correct, no empire ever breaks up cleanly or without violence, but in a SL that truly has not known war except in the abstract for many generations, I think that the instinct may be dormant enough that the chaos is not quite as bad as everyone thinks.

We shall see...eventually.

Hutch wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think that MAD probably has application against state actors. But I'm not so sure against non-state actors such as religious fanatics, political extremists, etc. All it would take would be the wrong weapon in the wrong hands to ruin some planet's day. All things are possible when chaos is king.

Don

True enough, but there are religious fanatics and political extremists in the current political situation (and probably have been suc h persons since PD 1) and it hasn't happened so far...but I will agree, in times of confusion, chaos, and fear, the odds do increase.

To respond to both:
You are right n7axw and Masada would be the best example of this (closest analouge in the series I could find Hutch) but still, if they did so, the rest of the "civilized" galaxy would hunt them to extinction as obeying the spirit of the EE.

Hutch, we obvioulsy see those types of religous peoples here on earth now, so it would no doubt, follow us to the stars. And that disgusts me. As a practicing Christian I find the constant strife, both with weapons, like Islamic extremists, and words and ideas, like Westboro Church, dispicable (add daffy duck spital for exclamation). Religon is about harmony with God and man, despite your differences, not enforcing them.

I do love this topic myself, and will continue to discuss as long as other wish to contribute, however...

Hutch wrote:We shall see...eventually.

I strongly suspect that the Edict will survive, at least in spirit. The reason that the Edict was originally put into the SL Constitution was not to make planetary bombardment illegal; it was so the SLN would not need a vote from the Star Chamber to go and punish the guilty party. It was to make enforcement automatic, so nobody would think "well, I am friends with this one SL world, and they might hamstring an operation long enough for me to get away with it."

I strongly suspect that if an Edict violation had happened sometime during the war, and the SLN had been unable to respond to it, Manticore and Haven would have called a temporary truce to let one side or the other handle it. Well, maybe not when Ransom was in power, but she was bat s#!t crazy.

The whole point is to let people know that no matter what temporary gain you get from indiscriminate planetary bombardment, in the long term it is not worth it.

Hutch wrote:And I think that has a chance to work in the Core--most of those planets haven't experienced war (or major interstellar economic crisis) in centuries (think about that for a minute--we've gone about 70 years since the last war on earth between the "Great Powers" and most people can't concieve of such a war again--how would the population feel after 600-800 years of peace?). I think (IMHO--YMMV) that most of those Core planets are terrified of some of the bogeymen discussed here and will be highly receptive to local planets and groups (plus the GA offering to get trade started back up) and not be in a conquering mode. And these are the planets with the economies and technology to cause the GA some serious heartburn in the long-term.

On the contrary, when something is inconceivable you don't consider it as a real threat. Because, by definition, it isn't something that can happen.

Perhaps I can interest you in a copy of "The Great Illusion", by Norman Angell and published in 1913? "The thesis of the book was that the integration of the economies of European countries had grown to such a degree that war between them would be entirely futile, making militarism obsolete."

"The following year Angell produced a revised and expanded version, The Great Illusion, which over the following three years sold two million copies and was translated into twenty languages. It also inspired enlightened Conservatives, such as Sir Richard Garton, to put substantial sums into a foundation to develop Angell's ideas."

kzt wrote:Perhaps I can interest you in a copy of "The Great Illusion", by Norman Angell and published in 1913? "The thesis of the book was that the integration of the economies of European countries had grown to such a degree that war between them would be entirely futile, making militarism obsolete."

"The following year Angell produced a revised and expanded version, The Great Illusion, which over the following three years sold two million copies and was translated into twenty languages. It also inspired enlightened Conservatives, such as Sir Richard Garton, to put substantial sums into a foundation to develop Angell's ideas."

An ancestor of the Housemans?

Economic interdependence as a cause of peace is far from dead in international relations theory. It was heavily discredited after Angell and WWI / WWII, but in recent years it's returned with something of a vengeance.

I think the Edict will definitely survive the League, in spirit. It will continue as a casus belli, automatically giving anyone moral authorisation to prosecute the perpetrators of any post-League EE violations.

Basically, anyone who is foolish enough to carry out such a violation is opening the door to literally everyone else out there to Do Something about that genocidal maniac. Eventually it will happen, whether it's a coalition force of locals, the GA, SL remnants or someone like the President of Monica looking to expand his 'Republic'.

Oh, never fear, I do have an idea of how far it is between stars! But, we have never been informed about how many wormholes there are or where they are. I am assuming (always risky I know) that Manticore has control of all of the former SL wormholes and the others are controlled by allies or, at the least, friendly states. With the various merchants and fax services running all over the place the word will get out and, even though a star system might be conquered by a warlord, a small Manty fleet can easily show up before too long to disabuse said warlord of his right to continue operations. I'm sure that most people in the verge and shell have heard about what happens when a Manty fleet shows up.

Weird Harold wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:I've read many a post of people talking about the Eridani Edict as if it still matters. I would think that one of the biggest consequences of the League's imminent collapse has already happened.

Perhaps the "Eridani Edict" has lost its teeth, but the risk of one's neighbors ganging up to do what the SLN no longer can is still going to act as a deterrent.

There's also going to be a lingering "habit" of avoiding a result that upset enough systems that not one of eighteen hundred members vetoed adding the Edict to the Solarian Constitution. Genocidal Orbital Bombardment is NOT going to become common and those who think they can indulge with impunity will discover they're mistaken.

And the edict was always reactionary. If we hear of you doing this we will automatically bring the "Solarian League Navy down [...] like a hammer", to destroy any government or star nation or rogue mercenary outfit which committed the atrocity.

Even if someone's neighbors can't or don't respond to an indiscriminant bombardment the GA does have, for the foreseeable future, plenty of power to send a fleet to ensure the destruction of anyone crazy or homicidal enough to engage in the kind of indiscriminate bombardments the Edict prohibited. And sooner or later they are likely to hear of any significant violations. (A few may slip through, like Masada's use of nukes against Grayson slipped by the League, but if they hear about it they've got plenty of force to retaliate)

Sending a powerful fleet to a single system to exact punishment takes vastly less forces than attempting to police the known galaxy. I know the GA lacks the forces for the later, but they've definitely got enough for the former.

Honor proposed the strategy of braking up the League into more managable sized states that would be small enough not to be a threat to the Star Empire. The method is to be sure that the ties with the League are broken and then offer in their place friendship, economic ties and mutual defense treaties. I have seen different figures for the size of the League, but the smallest is abt 1800 systems.

So given that reality how many systems does GA need relationships with to accomplish its goal?

Don