MilSF wrote:runsforcelery wrote:Honor’s position statement was very carefully crafted. It didn’t save that the Mandarins had ordered the attack on the platforms; it said the mandarins had enabled the attack, which was true.
I noticed that. Very subtly and nicely done.
I'm still not sure, however, why the GA thought that the attack enabled anything. They didn't know that "only" an SLN attack would set things in motion. Only the MA knew that. The high-level JSC meeting would be a better reason to glom onto why it happened when it did. Yes, they figured out quickly that the League was being used as the scapegoat, by why would that make them then kill that scapegoat? I may have missed or can't remember a conversation that was cold blooded enough to say, "Let's use the deaths of these 40+ million people to further our political aims". Maybe HH and the others were furious enough to just lash out at the visible sacrifice rather than the invisible enemy.
I think you did miss something, although I didn't try to hit anyone over the head with it. (
Not a snark!
)
(1) Honor and the other GA leadership were agreed that they needed, if at all possible, to avoid a war which inflicted mega civilian deaths and general destruction if they wanted to avoid another war down the road which they would
lose.
(2) They knew the MA was manipulating both sides, whether or not the SL leadership wanted to admit it.
(3) They knew SL public opinion was at best lackadaisical where support for the Mandarins' war policy was concerned but effectively
nonexistent where
opposition to the Mandarins' war policy was concerned.
(4) They knew that the Beowulf attack
was clearly coordinated with the SLN's attack from the use of the Silver Bullets. There was general agreement on that point among the intelligence services. What they didn't know was whether the SLN —
or someone within the SL, working for the Alignment — had attempted a closer coordination than had actually been achieved. That is, they didn't know if all of the coordination was coming from the Alignment's end, or if there was a Solarian League component, as well. Under the circumstances, they were certainly justified in adopting the worst-case assumption that there
was a League component.
(5) It followed from (4) above that they had no way of knowing
what else might be in the Alignment's pipeline to coordinate with
future SLN attacks.
(6) As Sonja and Shannon's discussion indicated, they had already been worrying about/aware of the Solarian potential to come up with new weaponry. Hasta failed to accomplish what the SLN hoped to accomplish at Beowulf, but not because of the failure of the system, and not because it was detected. In fact, it got in
undetected and would have been
highly effective if not for the block ships. As such, it confirmed the Grand Alliance's concerns about recovering Solly inventiveness.
(7) There was absolutely no sign that the Mandarins were going to change their strategic stance, which meant that if there were additional coordinated attacks in the pipeline, the Grand Alliance could lose millions upon millions of additional civilians. And it also meant that if there were additional new Solarian weapons coming along, the task of defeating those weapons might become significantly more difficult.
(8) Because of the above, and completely irrespective of any psychological advantages the Beowulf casualties might have given them in addressing Solarian public opinion, they
had to conclude hostilities before additional coordinated attacks killed all of those millions upon millions more additional civilians.
(9) The casualties of the Beowulf attack, which were clearly suffered in the course of a Solarian attack on the system, provided a psychological hook that wasn't there before and which could be used as leverage on Solarian public opinion. But Operation Nemesis would have been launched even if the Grand Alliance had known going in that the Solly man-in-the-street would
reject any Solarian culpability out of hand, because at that point, terminating hostilities and depriving the Alignment of any future cover, or the
belief that it might still possess such cover, was the driving factor in the decision.
(10) The fact that Kingsford believed al-Fanudahi, Gaddis, and the other Ghost Hunters was icing on the cake that no one could have logically anticipated from the Grand Alliance's side. It's highly probable that even without Gweon's dropping dead in Kingsford's office, the ultimate outcome of Operation Nemesis would have been similar to the one which actually obtained. It was made much more decisive because Kingsford was already looking desperately for a way out of the untenable position into which his star nation had been maneuvered, courtesy of its nonelected leadership.
* * * * * * * * * *
A point which may need a little additional emphasis, although I tried to make it clear in the novel, is that up until the Beowulf attack, Grand Alliance casualties
inflicted by the Solarian League were minuscule, both by the standards of the Havenite Wars and, even more so, by the immensely one-sided casualty ratio between the Grand Alliance and the SLN. The civilian deaths which had been suffered in Beowulf were a consequence (as the Alliance knew perfectly well) of an attack by the Mesan Alignment,
not the SLN. In that regard, until such time as the Sollies came up with new, more threatening weapons technology, the Grand Alliance had complete military superiority.
It literally didn't need to pursue active offensive operations against the League.Another point which has come up is the amount of scorn which has been heaped upon the Detweiler Boys' judgment, most of which is fairly well justified. After all, I
meant for their judgment to have been . . . impaired by their parents' deaths. But they weren't quite as clueless in that regard as they may have seemed.
The important point in that regard (which I clearly did not emphasize sufficiently in the original draft) was that the bombs were
supposed to be triggered
in very close coordination with the missile attack. The actual timing of the explosions
after the attack is the result of a combination of factors, one of which
is the Detweilers' determination to let Beowulf and the Grand Alliance know it was an attack
by the Alignment which was deliberately designed to inflict maximum casualties. And to inflict the maximum possible psychological revenge by stretching it out.
But that was only supposed to happen if the coordination with the missile strike failed.
This was always clear in my own mind, but I didn't make it adequately clear in the original submission draft, which is the one the earc is based on. I tweaked the scene slightly in the final manuscript (not the one I was snippeting from originally or the earc [remember how I mentioned elsewhere that changes happened between earc and final publication?
]) to unpack my original thinking. It wasn't clear the first time around because it was one of those vague "I know this is going on in the underbrush" sort of thought processes on my part, and I hadn't thought its implications through clearly enough to realize (initially) that it required further explication for the reader.
As I say, the Detweilers realized that if they missed the Hasta window, the Grand Alliance would know exactly who was responsible for it. In that respect, the staggered timing was meaningless . . . aside from the vengefulness involved in the deliberately stretched out sequence. The staggered timing is still a significant mistake on their part, of course, but not where the Alliance is concerned. The Detweilers' thinking was "in for a penny, in for a pound," in that regard. Where it could have had an immediate consequence — and still may have serious negative consequences down the road, who knows?
— is on the
Solarian League's willingness to believe in the Other Guys.