The Economics of Piracy

thinkstoomuch wrote:

cthia wrote:This is what I was getting at when I said it's a shame pirates aren't in the peddler business. Cannot the bin numbers or whatever be redone for seized freighters?

Surely there are entire corrupt systems that are fencers even for a mega load.

Which gets to another problem of scale. There are not all that many of these ships around. A lot of numbers get thrown around but say there a million. We are not talking millions of cars in a country.

If a ship is on a known route it will travel through many systems. Each with their own customs people. Each ship in "class" is supposed to the same. But in actuality they are not. Each ship will have its own quirks and little things that stand out.

A semi competent inspector will notice. So you steal it in Silesia then sell it on the other side of the league there is still a chance that it will hit one of the old places. Silly things that happened to Maryanne will happen. The worm hole networks make the problem both better and worse. This gives someone a chance to spill the beans and the paper trail. Not a good result.

From the Honorverse perspective far better to chop the ship up and part it out. The steel, titanium and other materials are dirt cheap. The compensator, nodes and other such stuff is the cost. Plus now you have much less chance of getting caught because it is that many more serial numbers and such to be tracked. All mostly uniform (sort of) much easier to hide. If anybody even bothers to look at such stuff. Remember the Mesan hyper drive.

Which then get dumped into another freighter and sold to the shipyard in the next system over and no one the wiser. Spare parts or new ship depending on the market.

Just my take on it,
T2M

Even if you looked, how many parts are refurbished over the lifetime of a ship? Today, hundreds of individual parts on cars and trucks are not disposed of when they fail, but returned to manufacturers to be rebuilt.

In the Honorvsrse, a node might be worn and then replaced, and the original, worn part may be able to be refurbished cheaper than manufacturing new. The next thing you know, one of the Marianne's original nodes are on the real Golden Butterfly, another on the Stargazer, and a third may have even found it's way to the Wayfarer. All legitimately done and the original ship is still pulling it's weight legitimately somewhere else...

And then there is the question of who is tracking such things. There is no Honorverse interplanetary Internet, and major news items on the other side of the 'verse takes months to reach you, let alone detailed log data of every repair done in every major shipyard. So who is to say that the node just sold wasn't pulled from a ship 3 years ago as a parts swap, not last week in a chop shop.

cthia wrote:

Theemile wrote:
Cthia, I'm not certain if someone caught it, but your math is off by a factor of 1000.

169,000 tons x 2204.62lbs x $6000 is $2,235,484,680,000, or roughly the US Federal Tax intake for the last 4.5 months

Thanks Theemile. Don't know what happened there. I got your final answer as well. Somehow the cut and paste failed me and I didn't catch it. I remember the number bugged me out. But is why I said, retire and buy a small planet in the Verge.

Theemile wrote:The insane thing is a 8.5 Mton freighter can haul 50x your example, or nominally 112 Trillion dollars worth of product. Sadly dumping that much Hashish on a single system would turn it's street value from $6000 to $.06 overnight. Ahhh.... the laws of supply and demand....

A little googling and I found the estimated Hash seized in the US in 2002 was ~1100 Metric tons and the total usage was believed to be ~22,000 metric tons. Just your ocean going freighter would feed the US need for ~8 years.(at a price much lower than $6000 a pound)

That is insane. My math revealed the same potential of trillions as well. However, I assume that there is a point where the extreme value of certain shipments would almost demand a serious escort.

In other words, some "sweet spots" are just too sweet? <shrugs>

Unless, some adventurous one-of-a-kind pirate may opt to utilize a BC to relieve someone of their 100 trillion dollar MFSB load, (mother, father, sister and brother load).

Ok, ok. No BC. But at those type seizures, the cost of a BC would get lost in the dust. It would be as negligible as gun ships and submarines are to drug cartels.

A major question is how much do the pirates really get for a captured ship and it cargo?


I figure on average they will receive less then twenty percent of the value of what they stole. From this they will payout what ever costs they have before they split the rest. We also account for various enterprising individuals finding ways to part pirates willingly from their money.

cthia wrote:

cthia wrote:Thanks Theemile. Don't know what happened there. I got your final answer as well. Somehow the cut and paste failed me and I didn't catch it. I remember the number bugged me out. But is why I said, retire and buy a small planet in the Verge.

Theemile wrote:The insane thing is a 8.5 Mton freighter can haul 50x your example, or nominally 112 Trillion dollars worth of product. Sadly dumping that much Hashish on a single system would turn it's street value from $6000 to $.06 overnight. Ahhh.... the laws of supply and demand....

A little googling and I found the estimated Hash seized in the US in 2002 was ~1100 Metric tons and the total usage was believed to be ~22,000 metric tons. Just your ocean going freighter would feed the US need for ~8 years.(at a price much lower than $6000 a pound)

That is insane. My math revealed the same potential of trillions as well. However, I assume that there is a point where the extreme value of certain shipments would almost demand a serious escort.

In other words, some "sweet spots" are just too sweet? <shrugs>

Unless, some adventurous one-of-a-kind pirate may opt to utilize a BC to relieve someone of their 100 trillion dollar MFSB load, (mother, father, sister and brother load).

Ok, ok. No BC. But at those type seizures, the cost of a BC would get lost in the dust. It would be as negligible as gun ships and submarines are to drug cartels.

I decided to go after it from the opposite end. even with a bulk cargo, the value would be huge. not every merchant ship will be 8M tons. I am guessing that the average is somewhere around 5.5M, with a cargo space of 5M tons.

For a bulk cargo, I pick wheat, which is 35 bushels per metric tons. In the US wheat sells for between $2.50 - $3 per bushel, so pick the average at $2.75

35*$2.75*5,000,000= $48 billion dollars US. This is less than 1% of the world production of wheat in 2013.

IMO most ships will have a mix of low value and higher value cargo, so we are probably looking at an average cargo value per ship of between $100-$200 billion.

cthia wrote:

Silverwall wrote:Somtaaw, your too quick for me. I posted fast then realised the mistake and went to edit it but got caught up trying to estimate the real value of a BC and got delayed an hour before I fixed the error.

BTW my estimated cost of a new BC is actually a minimum of 2.75 billion manty dollars.

Yet, what would be the cost of an aging, slight to medium-damaged BC on the black market, horse traded with a good ol' boy - or if lucky, thrown in as a bonus on another deal? I learned horse trading, Silicon Valley 'without-a-dry-run' style and it's an intricate world of commodities espionage. lol

And what does anyone venture to estimate the value of the most valuable single freighter shipments? I'm guessing 10 - 15 billion dollar single freighters are quite common. Especially along the high-rent district routes.

When planets lose shipments in the Honorverse, they are potentially losing billions. These freighters may be carrying goods for several systems. If only a billion dollar shipment, that may lose money. It may cost you that in insurance. lol

Unless you are interested in fighting someone you have no need for a BC. A BC needs something like 2,000 crew members, this means that you have to split the booty with those people but ultimately you will only get the same amount as a frigate/destroyer would but with 10 times the crew.

Acquiring 8 frigates or destroyers gives you the chance to hit 8 times as many targets for the same number of crew and if any one of them should meet with misfortune at the hands of any armed merchantman or a regular navy ship you only loose a fraction of your earning potential.

The only reason that a pirate should ever go for a ship bigger than DD or CL is if they are "freedom fighters" for one nation or another and dabble in piracy occasionally.

cthia wrote:


It's appalling that pirates aren't in the peddlers business as well. Why can't pirates have seized ships refurbished & reworked and make shipments themselves? Why can't a huge shipment in seized widgets be sold to as many nations that will buy stolen bulk?

Aren't pirates terminally stupid by definition?

Who says they haven't? The stolen ships have to go somewhere and not every pirate is interested in being a pirate for the remainder of their lives. Some might take the ships and start going into business for themselves and ultimately become "legit" especially if you were lucky enough not to be caught by any major navy and release to the local "authorities".

cthia wrote:

Silverwall wrote:Somtaaw, your too quick for me. I posted fast then realised the mistake and went to edit it but got caught up trying to estimate the real value of a BC and got delayed an hour before I fixed the error.

BTW my estimated cost of a new BC is actually a minimum of 2.75 billion manty dollars.

Yet, what would be the cost of an aging, slight to medium-damaged BC on the black market, horse traded with a good ol' boy - or if lucky, thrown in as a bonus on another deal? I learned horse trading, Silicon Valley 'without-a-dry-run' style and it's an intricate world of commodities espionage. lol

And what does anyone venture to estimate the value of the most valuable single freighter shipments? I'm guessing 10 - 15 billion dollar single freighters are quite common. Especially along the high-rent district routes.

When planets lose shipments in the Honorverse, they are potentially losing billions. These freighters may be carrying goods for several systems. If only a billion dollar shipment, that may lose money. It may cost you that in insurance. lol

Sigs wrote:Unless you are interested in fighting someone you have no need for a BC. A BC needs something like 2,000 crew members, this means that you have to split the booty with those people but ultimately you will only get the same amount as a frigate/destroyer would but with 10 times the crew.

Acquiring 8 frigates or destroyers gives you the chance to hit 8 times as many targets for the same number of crew and if any one of them should meet with misfortune at the hands of any armed merchantman or a regular navy ship you only loose a fraction of your earning potential.

The only reason that a pirate should ever go for a ship bigger than DD or CL is if they are "freedom fighters" for one nation or another and dabble in piracy occasionally.

You're still thinking rather small Sigs. A BC is for a score that's so large that it will have formidable escort, but also too large to pass up. Let's say this certain info comes to you, and you have access to a BC...

"In 3 months gentlemen, a shipment consisting of a single freighter is scheduled to travel along this route. She will be making port here, here and... ... ... here! Where she'll be the most loaded and vulnerable - like pushing baby chicks to a hungry crocodile. She'll be escorted with only two DDs, (possibly only one for at least three of the legs) and she's burning the marquee up with an astronomical price tag; 100 Trillion dollars people. With at most a pair of DDs. Or a singleton."

What say ye, we toast... mate?

I also imagine some of the wealthier and successful pirates were able to get out fast, as ye all say, because they were smart enough or lucky enuff, to get that one astronomical score. I'm looking at BCs as disposable items. And what about the almost priceless shipments and those carrying secrets? Not just military secrets, but trade secrets. And isn't there Honorverse armored vehicles? How armored are they?

Oh no. I've become a power monger. Power is intoxicating!!!

The most hilarious damn thought just "popped" in my head. Wouldn't it be funny if one of Honor's offspring became the most legendary and successful pirate in history? She's captaining a BC, and she's every bit the mettle of her mother. Her BC is named Freighter's Bane.

Yet this litle lad, steals from the rich and gives to the poor yet, deserving planets. Like whatshisface's gf's, that we all wish would just kiss already. You know, the redhead. Can't think of her name but can't forget that hair either, and that story about her poor little planet.

Anyways, a clone of Honor pirating a BC. Now tell her again why it isn't a good idea.

That scenario is completely, utterly implausible. That much monetary value is the equivalent of a Core system's yearly gross domestic product. It would never be defended by anything like a pair of tin cans - it would be defended by an entire freaking navy. The shipper would recognize the value of the cargo just as much as the pirates, and would damn well make sure that the cargo is protected.

cthia wrote:You're still thinking rather small Sigs. A BC is for a score that's so large that it will have formidable escort, but also too large to pass up. Let's say this certain info comes to you, and you have access to a BC...

"In 3 months gentlemen, a shipment consisting of a single freighter is scheduled to travel along this route. She will be making port here, here and... ... ... here! Where she'll be the most loaded and vulnerable - like pushing baby chicks to a hungry crocodile. She'll be escorted with only two DDs, (possibly only one for at least three of the legs) and she's burning the marquee up with an astronomical price tag; 100 Trillion dollars people. With at most a pair of DDs. Or a singleton."

The odds of having reliable enough routing information to try that seem low, especially for a shipment so valuable it gets a heavy escort.

To some people the machine tools Manticore sent to Grayson were probably worth a fortune. But the chance you miss the once in a lifetime target (because it go rescheduled, or to a deceptive routing, or the escort was way heavier than expected, or just because the escorts ordered the crew to abandon ship and nuked the freighter when they realized they couldn't save it... The odds just don't seem good. And if you blow away a couple of DDs to try and take a super rich prize the odds are the parent navy of those DDs will make it their mission in life to hunt you to the ends of the galaxy.
It's one thing if you can hide behind a government that's got a navy to stand up to that (aka a privateer), but relying on hiding your base, or yourself, indefinitely seems risky.

Sooner or later your old crew is going to start to brag, or get picked up on another pirate ship and trade details in exchange for your life. And then you've got a vengeful navy on your tail and (hopefully) one BC to stand them off... Oops.

Duckk wrote:That scenario is completely, utterly implausible. That much monetary value is the equivalent of a Core system's yearly gross domestic product. It would never be defended by anything like a pair of tin cans - it would be defended by an entire freaking navy. The shipper would recognize the value of the cargo just as much as the pirates, and would damn well make sure that the cargo is protected.

Shit happens, sir! Especially during a state of war, a visit by Murphy and an idiot as lackadaisical as Santino or Young ordered to escort it and Young buggered out to save his own ass. Think Young'll die for a freighter of some other system's booty, even at infinite times the value?

Besides, I haven't seen implausible as a limit in the Honorverse.