Hi All,
Thanks to everyone for all the great posts; its been fascinating, and informative as to what models people are visualizing.
Zakharra, I believe the early textev says the league has around 2/3 of humanity {I don't recall any that mentioned 90%], and past attempts to nail that down by yours truly back at the bar about 8 years ago got the then MWW to cut our joint total estimates down to the low double digit trillions for the SL, humanity's total evidently less than 20 trillion, but there are obviously thousands if not tens of thousands of systems, some at least a thousand or more LY's beyond the SL, given over 600 years of FTL colonization, effectively starting with dozens of systems not just one for many many times what the 'slow boat colonization era' generated.
The early textev says the MMM dominated the trade beyond the SL, giving some indication of its sheer size back then, before more recent textev declared how it now dominated the SL, despite Beowulf having a huge MM recently as well.
I believe that Beowulf has a large financial sector, that while outshone by Sol's is still quite considerable for those who just can't bear to deal with Manticore, which evidently many sollies still have issues with for some reason, but Beowulf is quite willing to take their money.
TheEmile is correct that as of CoS [1919], WEB stated SL membership was only 1784 systems, with several dozen [probably of the 'old league'] having populations 30+ billion; I tend to think 'several hundred protectorates' is closer to 700-800 systems, certainly their density in SoF and the TQ region implies something closer to that for the SL's whole surface area.
While the number of heavily industrialized systems grossly favors the SL, time won't permit that to become a factor in the SL's survival, making it moot at the moment.
Granted the 'old league' is heavily industrialized, but the quarter of the executive council's vote opposed to condemning Beowulf indicate there's already considerable opposition to the mandarin's version of events, who are just waiting to see which way to go.
RFC has stated the SEM/GA is still trading with those parts of the SL it can reach via the wormhole network, which is far greater than the mandarins suspect; so financial instruments of some kinds are still being traded, and less indirectly than some believe.
Didn't RFC state somewhere if the mandarins were tracking the relative value of the respective bonds and currencies etc, they'd see many if not most transtellars believe Manticore will survive the SL's onslaught (being better informed than the mandarins apparently), ie they already suspect how it will turn out, and have shifted their portfolios accordingly?
Keep in mind the question of how the SL will enforce it's threats against the regional financial centers etc, without the BF threat to back them up, particularly after word of Zunker and Saltash spreads FTL, that SLN BC's can't survive against RMN cruisers and destroyers?
BTW, how is Saltash further away from Sol than NT?
Don't forget the time factors involved.
Things are snowballing faster than the mandarins realise; the avalanche is growing.
While SL news and financial db's can apparently still use the wormholes [and what they have to pay and how is another indicator of the relative currency values]; non wormhole round trips to the SL frontier and back [~300-400 LY] will take up to 7 T-weeks, which puts those not connected to the GA at quite a handicap in terms of knowing and deciding what to do.
I can't help wondering if the RMN has roughly kept track of how many recognised newsies and financial db's were operating before OB etc, and restricts traffic to those it knows?
Carterage charges have probably gone up several if not 10-12 times since Lacoon 1, so those willing to pay have driven prices beyond the ability of some to pay.
The remaining SL freighters that are delivering cargoes will take 100-120 days for round trips to the frontier; if any SL freighters are bothering to visit them when there are probably far more lucrative cargoes closer to the 'old league' with quicker turn around times.
Thus practically throwing all the 'outer shell' worlds into the SEM/GA's economic network by necessity, perhaps a third of of the SL's member systems, at least as heavily industrialized like the Maya Sector, followed by the 'inner shell' systems, another third?
All of which affects how the respective economies, bonds and currencies etc are considered by the shells and the regional financial centers there, I don't think it looks good for the SL; Sol may quickly find itself outnumbered by those FC's still dealing with the SEM/GA.
NTM the reaction in many places in the shells to Filaretta's demise hasn't yet reached Sol again, or that the SEM/GA version got there first, since the SEM/GA access is far quicker, so the SL propaganda is falling on far rockier ground, and all that such implies.
So far we've seen no reaction from the shells to NT, Spindle, OB, Filaretta, or Zunker and Saltash; and those last are just the ones we know about!
Given the mandarins lack of interest in the mysterious perpetrators of OB, an attitude probably not shared by systems feeling far more exposed than the 'old league', I suspect the shells' analysis of the mandarins' judgement has become even more critical; I expect the news that BF is toast where it meets the RMN/GA raises their hostile attitude toward SL practices that favor the 'old league' etc to an even greater boiling point, and increases the likelihood of their welcoming GA visitors offering far better trading terms etc than the SL ever did, considerably improving the odds of their making some accommodation with the GA.
By the time the mandarins hear of such it will be far too late all too often.
By that time I expect BF to largely be debris falling into the various local stars along with whatever defending force that didn't surrender or abandon ship fast enough.
If Beowulf is indeed attacked by the SLN, sometime soon, I think far more old league systems will decide the SL no longer serves them regardless of how their EC delegates voted, and join Beowulf, if not the GA.
I expect all of these processes to be quickly cascading, so much if not most of the SL members will have quit in a year or two, and have some relationship with the GA if not the SEM, thus effectively establishing the new financial network being tied to the SEM/GA more strongly than ever.
Interesting times, people.
L
[quote="Theemile"][quote="Zakharra"]....The SL is HUGE. You keep ignoring that for all intents and purposes, the SL is human space. Something like 90% of all human settled worlds are in the SL (I believe that was stated in one of the first books). Manticore, Haven, the Andermani empire? Those are outlier systems.... <snip> [/quote]
The SL has 1784 member systems as of ToF and an unknown # of Protectorates (Probably ~500). Haven (the 2nd largest polity) at it's highest had ~300 planets under it's umbrella, or ~16% of the number of member systems of the SL. Also in 1905, The RMN had 4 planets, and 30 or more members in it's alliance, The Andermani had just shy of 30 systems, Silensia had 67 systems, The Talbot Quadrant had 17 systems. Just this far from incomplete snapshot of systems outside the SL ammounts to ~450 worlds.
The SL probably has ~40-50% of the colonized systems in the universe under it's umbrella (counting the protectorates). The important point is most of those 1783 systems are highly industrialized with large, educated planetary populations, so the vast majority of the population, the vast majority of the educated population, and the vast majority of the industrial centers all lie in the SL, not the Verge[/quote]
