Has the Mesan Alignment already lost?

The thing is torch has copies of those missiles, and i think manticore does as well. THey could potetnially improve them and easily share with their allies. THey might not be able to make as many, but their allies would be able to do alot of damage to the sollys just by them selves.

Hi KZT,

Over 8 years ago I got into trouble with RFC at the bar for suggesting that the RMN needed 5-10,000 missiles per day and couldn't afford that many if they cost around $5-10M each since HH's light cruiser 70 ton missiles in OBS cost 1-2 M$ each, and I attempted to project their cost according to drives and capability.

The MWW proceeded to explain they didn't produce that many per, day plus the costs had dropped sharply because no one had ever made so many before, and the relative costs compared to our experience were far far less to start with so the MDM's were,'t that much more than the pre-war missile had been, IIRC.

So I think RMN production may have between 3-6,000 per day before OB, though I hope it was higher than that.

L

kzt wrote:What makes you think they are not coming from the same sort of automated factory that produced something like 1000 missiles per hour for the RMN? Manticore is not the only place that understands mass production.

Personally, I think one of Mesa's dumbest moves (even assuming that neither Haven nor Manticore caught on to the existence of MAlign) was including Grayson in Oyster Bay. Before Oyster Bay, Benjamin was facing increasing pressure to end the alliance with Manticore in order to avoid a fight with the Solarian League. The opposition at home was claiming that Grayson only had issues with Haven, not the Solarian League. A few well-placed PR moves and assassinations could have broken up the alliance, particularly if only Manticore had been struck by Oyster Bay, leaving Grayson to worry that it is next on the hit list. It is true that several governments will leave the Manticoran alliance after Oyster Bay, but aside from the Andermani, none of them are major losses. The loss of Grayson would be a major blow. It is always better to destroy an alliance and then pick off the important players than fight an alliance.

Instead, by striking both Manticore and Grayson, you guarantee that Grayson stays allied with Manticore.They know they are on the same hit-list as Manticore. Grayson knows how to fight enemies whose goal is to destroy Grayson. It is also not the first time that Grayson's space infrastructure has been trashed. They are used to rebuilding and doing so quickly.

The biggest failure of the MAlign in my opinion is their inability to grasp the difference between 'unable to prove responsibility' and not raising suspicions.
That might have worked well in the leagues justice system, but their nanotech let the Manties and Haven work out the story by absence of any other reasonable motive or cause, concluding correctly that the same unknown method was used.
The same goes for oyster bay, it is glaringly obvious that those ships must come from somewhere, and with the assassinations it is reasonable to assume the same people are behind, so they shouldn't be surprised that the secret of their existence leaked.

How long before someone with actual power in the SL (like Sr. SLN or FF or a number of people in Transstellars) asks the questions:

Why did parties unknown attack Manticore and Grayson?

If they can do that to a Manticore, what is going to happen WHEN they turn the weapons on the SLN?

Who are these people and what do they want?

And then the best one: What do I have to do or who do I have to talk to to keep these people from destoying me/us since I have no what their motiviation is?

The Alignment had it's rock turned over and is scrambling for the cracks in the woodwork. The RF was supposed to be systems which would gradually provide the focal points of the shards of the SL to start growing into new centers of Civilization and be the soft points of implinemting many of the Alignment's programs and policies without The Alignment having to step out of the shadows except as knives in the dark for systems getting too far off the unbroadcast plan. Now the RF is going to have to be exceedingly careful so as not trigger any questions about what is is doing. The more is learned about the Alignment, the more likely people are going to start seeing things that don't look right in the policies that the future RF systems are going to be putting into practice

Greentea wrote:Personally, I think one of Mesa's dumbest moves (even assuming that neither Haven nor Manticore caught on to the existence of MAlign) was including Grayson in Oyster Bay. Before Oyster Bay, Benjamin was facing increasing pressure to end the alliance with Manticore in order to avoid a fight with the Solarian League. The opposition at home was claiming that Grayson only had issues with Haven, not the Solarian League. A few well-placed PR moves and assassinations could have broken up the alliance, particularly if only Manticore had been struck by Oyster Bay, leaving Grayson to worry that it is next on the hit list. It is true that several governments will leave the Manticoran alliance after Oyster Bay, but aside from the Andermani, none of them are major losses. The loss of Grayson would be a major blow. It is always better to destroy an alliance and then pick off the important players than fight an alliance.

Instead, by striking both Manticore and Grayson, you guarantee that Grayson stays allied with Manticore.They know they are on the same hit-list as Manticore. Grayson knows how to fight enemies whose goal is to destroy Grayson. It is also not the first time that Grayson's space infrastructure has been trashed. They are used to rebuilding and doing so quickly.

I think the strike was very well planned. The MAlign had its reasons to attack Grayson. It needed to cripple the Manticore alliance's ability to build ships. Manticore and Graysosn were the only shipyards in the alliance capable of producing the ships needed. By wiping them out, this gave any enemies a window of opportunity to strike in and it stopped any further expansion of the SEM for about 1-2 years until they could get their industrial base back in order. The MAlign likely knew that Grayson and SEM would be able to get their plants rebuilt within that time period, but that was planned for. What they didn't plan for was the RH allying with the SEM. That was totally unseen. If Haven was still at odds with the SEM, the MAlign's plans would be on track and the SEM in a heap of trouble.

Zakharra wrote: I think the strike was very well planned. The MAlign had its reasons to attack Grayson. It needed to cripple the Manticore alliance's ability to build ships. Manticore and Graysosn were the only shipyards in the alliance capable of producing the ships needed. By wiping them out, this gave any enemies a window of opportunity to strike in and it stopped any further expansion of the SEM for about 1-2 years until they could get their industrial base back in order. The MAlign likely knew that Grayson and SEM would be able to get their plants rebuilt within that time period, but that was planned for. What they didn't plan for was the RH allying with the SEM. That was totally unseen. If Haven was still at odds with the SEM, the MAlign's plans would be on track and the SEM in a heap of trouble.

But then is the question why wouldn't Haven try to make peace with Manticore. There already has been an attempt for peace that was sabotaged by the MAlign, why shouldn't Haven try this again?
The MAlign just decided to ignore Haven, because they wanted to press on, hoping for the best.
They had free choice in timing their operations, and they chose a point where the situation was fluid, and just after a very public disaster in the Talbot Quadrant where Mesa was somehow involved, therefore raising suspicions.

I still think Albrecht Detweiller's decision to move up OB was a well rationalized panic reaction to Lovat. Being a super man, he cannot admit to fear. I think he fears Manticore and the GA.....

kenl511 wrote:I still think Albrecht Detweiller's decision to move up OB was a well rationalized panic reaction to Lovat. Being a super man, he cannot admit to fear. I think he fears Manticore and the GA.....

I think it was BoM, but yes.

Whitecold wrote:

Zakharra wrote: I think the strike was very well planned. The MAlign had its reasons to attack Grayson. It needed to cripple the Manticore alliance's ability to build ships. Manticore and Graysosn were the only shipyards in the alliance capable of producing the ships needed. By wiping them out, this gave any enemies a window of opportunity to strike in and it stopped any further expansion of the SEM for about 1-2 years until they could get their industrial base back in order. The MAlign likely knew that Grayson and SEM would be able to get their plants rebuilt within that time period, but that was planned for. What they didn't plan for was the RH allying with the SEM. That was totally unseen. If Haven was still at odds with the SEM, the MAlign's plans would be on track and the SEM in a heap of trouble.

But then is the question why wouldn't Haven try to make peace with Manticore. There already has been an attempt for peace that was sabotaged by the MAlign, why shouldn't Haven try this again?
The MAlign just decided to ignore Haven, because they wanted to press on, hoping for the best.
They had free choice in timing their operations, and they chose a point where the situation was fluid, and just after a very public disaster in the Talbot Quadrant where Mesa was somehow involved, therefore raising suspicions.

There was the timing to coincide with the emerging SEM and Manticore hostilities. I think the MAlign people figured that Haven would continue to fight (the Republic President Pritcherd(is that her?) actions caught everyone by surprise and it would not have happened if three men had not shown up when they did. The information those men had, and only that information, was what gave the Republic President the gumption to make the unprecedented offer to talk peace, one on one, leader to leader. If those three men hadn't shown up, there would likely have still been a state of war between the SEM and Havan, just when it looked like there might be war against the SL as well.

So I think Oyster Bay was well planned and executed and would have succeeded if not for one event happening that changed the -entire- equation. One thing that the MAlign could not have foreseen happening. And it wrecked a good deal of their plans.