Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Oh boy! So much to respond to. Say somthing and go away for a half day and boom!!!

n7axw wrote:Hi Commodore Oakius,

I see you are relatively new, so welcome to the forums. Thank you for your nice post. I will try to respond here as best I can.

Don

So this post isn't ridculously long I only left your openning in. (EDIT: Can you imagine if I left it in?! )

Thank you for your welcome. I love good coversations like these I tend to get opinionated and go off half-cocked, so if I cross any lines tell me.

Maticore will definately have the power to project but my argument is that it should not. Once it starts projecting it wil slip and fall into the shoes of the SLN and, in the way of all humans, all the problems that plague BF and FF will crop up in the Macticoran Navy. The issue comes down to distance. The further away from you central power of orders the more lax things become, and the more likly it is to have corruption leak in. OFS is an example in the extreme. Should the GA protect their shipping? Yes. Should the GA beout and about solving wars and keeping peace? Maybe. (it is similer to the U.S. Should we go around putting down evil dictators in other countries?)I am just about a third through Shadow of Freedom. All these little systems are going to be looking for help from the Manties to fight off OFS. They cant have the manpower to be all these places, and I wonder if they should. Once they remove OFS they are going to have to militarily support the system, at the very least in space, until things get under control, or they will be completely vunrable to outsiders. Take that commitment and multiply that by a few hundred and it is just too much. They are having trouble secureing Talbot as it is.

I think OFS and Trans-steller satraps will end up fighting eachother to exhaustion, leaving everything more vunrable then before and the systems they control more destitute then ever. That, however, is just my opinion. I also think BF commanders will set up their own satraps as well. It will be a septic pool of vipers and piranhas.

The leauge was definately far from perfect, but... With the Manties in Talbot, they would be in better position to help trim the excess of the SL. The SL would become nervous over the size of the SEM and the GA and focus more internally to get themselves prepared for a potential conflict. Granted the MA is pushing the confrontation, but I still feel the league is better then the anarchy that will ensure when it collapses.

As for the Highridge expasion. I see what you mean. Just remember the Talboters requested to be annexed, the Highridge government just wanted more trade to "build the peace" lol.

Weird Harold wrote:The Swiss have never needed to project power, but they have historically provided some of the best and most reliable mercenaries, like the Papal Guards.

Based on that statement I would compare the Swiss a bit more on the Andermani. The Swiss did have some of the finest military commaders of the age though. They took the new tech (ha, muskets as new tech) of their age in the 16th and 17th century and delevoped a balanced force mix that was immesly succesful. It was adopted by the German states and then the British modified it to the well known and, at the time, effective standards well all know and love.

Alizon wrote:What you get in essence is a Huge Silesia with islands of some stability but with a large area of general chaos. Of course it's likely to be MUCH worse that Silesia because these won't be small frontier worlds with limited resources, these are going to be shell and core worlds with much larger needs and resources to fill them some with SDFs and the remnants of the SLN floating around.

All of this is going to create lots of instability which trade and commerce wither and die in and so do the economies of all concerned. What you're going to get is a economic and social upheaval which, if left unchecked, could make the Dark Ages seem like and era of enlightenment.

I think I said this or somthing similer earlier, and if not I was thinking it and I whole heartly endorse this idea. It will become a new Silesia, with less government, so worse off.
Trade is the key. With distances so far for communitcation tade will be the only thing keeping civilization alive. Granted, trade bring pirates, but that is inevitable. I think it is possible, maybe even likely for many of the systems to attempt to band together, they should anyways, but they wouldnt be able to stand against the OFS and trans-steller satraps. Trade brings military protection and money. Protection buys time and money buys your own defenses.

DarkEnigma wrote:I've read many a post of people talking about the Eridani Edict as if it still matters. I would think that one of the biggest consequences of the League's imminent collapse has already happened.

The only thing that gave the Eridani Edict any teeth was the fear of the SLN. Well the GA is well on its way to proving the SLN is a paper tiger so in effect the Eridani Edict is null and void. Sure, the GA will still abide by it but they aren't nearly large enough to police the galaxy (or scare it into submission like the SLN did) which means that as the League unravels we could see a lot more orbital strikes as warlords and tyrants stake out their claims in the ensuing chaos.

The edict will never die, in name, and perhps even in fact, but the truth be told, it is like cold war threats of nuclear devestation. Go ahead and nuke us, before we die will nuke you back. Go ahead and bomb the planet indiscrimanatly, we'll wipe you out.
The very fact of its existance is the best deterrant. No nation strong enough to resist the galaxy wide outrage of violateing the Edict will do so because of the loss of trade, ships and lives to their own nation as a consequence.

It must be remembered that, due to Lancoon, Manticore controls many of the wormhole junctions that they took away from the SL. I haven't seen any textev on how many they took and how many are still controlled by the SL or others but suspect that there aren't many. I don't foresee them just walking away after the dust settles. With that control Manticore will have a presence in the most heavily travelled trade routes and will be able to prevent most adventurism by upstarts. Not many would-be emperors would be willing to send their small fleets on month-long voyages to conqure systems that Manticore can get a even smaller but more powerful force to quickly and stop the incursion cold. And I agree that Manticore is going to be forced to become, along with the other GA members and the Andies, the galactic policemen.

Reader Bob wrote:...Not many would-be emperors would be willing to send their small fleets on month-long voyages to conqure systems that Manticore can get a even smaller but more powerful force to quickly and stop the incursion cold....

1: Would-be-emporers won't believe the realities of interstellar warfare apply to them. Like Warneke and Sidemore, they'll believe they're invincible. Most would be like Brigadier Yucel and not understand Commodore Terekhov:

Why is it,” Terekhov asked conversationally, “that people like you always think you’re more ruthless than people like me?”

2: Communications and Intelligence lags would mean that in most cases, the GA will find out about Would-be-emporers' aggression after the fact. The further from the MWHJ the incident is, the more likely Would-be-emporers will feel unstoppable.

I have been thinking about Manticore's post war problem... She's going to need to deal with those defensive and commercial treaties she makes to detach various systems from the League. I think that can turn out well. As those treaties are honored with good results, Manticore will make friends and at least some of those treaties will be permanent, creating islands of stability in the surrounding chaos.

Next there is Grayson. I think that relationshp will be permanent. The Manties and the Graysons have been through so much together and had each other's backs during the years of warfare that I don't see it breaking up. In some ways it reminds me of the special relationship between America and the Brits.

Then consider Haven. With a rational regime providing good governance, Haven is a goldmine for Manticoran investment and I suspect will be Manticore's biggest trading partner. The stronger the commercial ties become, the stronger other ties will be, including defensive ones. Add into that the good fortune of being in a part of the galaxy not heavily impacted by the breakup of the Solarian League.

These are the biggest positives. Next post I'll lay out how I see the challenges.


Don

Reader Bob wrote:It must be remembered that, due to Lancoon, Manticore controls many of the wormhole junctions that they took away from the SL. I haven't seen any textev on how many they took and how many are still controlled by the SL or others but suspect that there aren't many. I don't foresee them just walking away after the dust settles. With that control Manticore will have a presence in the most heavily travelled trade routes and will be able to prevent most adventurism by upstarts. Not many would-be emperors would be willing to send their small fleets on month-long voyages to conqure systems that Manticore can get a even smaller but more powerful force to quickly and stop the incursion cold. And I agree that Manticore is going to be forced to become, along with the other GA members and the Andies, the galactic policemen.

You might have a slightly distorted view of how far away from each other inhabited systems are. A couple of months ago we had a discussion about that exact point, and IIRC the conclusion was that most core worlds probably had a half dozen or more inhabited systems within fifteen to twenty light-years. That's plenty for a would-be empire builder without worrying about the neighborhood wormhole - which is probably farther away anyway.

Commodore Oakius wrote:I think OFS and Trans-steller satraps will end up fighting eachother to exhaustion, leaving everything more vunrable then before and the systems they control more destitute then ever. That, however, is just my opinion. I also think BF commanders will set up their own satraps as well. It will be a septic pool of vipers and piranhas.

...

The edict will never die, in name, and perhps even in fact, but the truth be told, it is like cold war threats of nuclear devestation. Go ahead and nuke us, before we die will nuke you back. Go ahead and bomb the planet indiscrimanatly, we'll wipe you out.
The very fact of its existance is the best deterrant. No nation strong enough to resist the galaxy wide outrage of violateing the Edict will do so because of the loss of trade, ships and lives to their own nation as a consequence.

You can't have your cake an eat it too. I'm not trying to pick on you here but your comments are in line with what others have also said. Most people seem to think as you have said that there will be a period of chaos after the fall of the SLN. At the same time you make the case that the Eridani Edict will still be effective because everyone will gang up on whoever violates its spirit. These two claims are mutually exclusive.

If Solarian space devolves into infighting and chaos as we all seem to think is likely, then every system is going to have its own problems to worry about: whether that is economic collapse, external threats from adventurous neighbors, or internal strife. They simply wont have time or ability to care what is going on in a system half-a-galaxy away.

To make matters worse, few systems are going to have spare hyper-capable naval strength to go swat down every backwater warlord who commits atrocities to secure his own power. The GA could police those systems within easy reach of wormhole termini, but the galaxy is a very very big place and the GA will not even come close to being able to put out every fire that sparks in the former Solarian sphere.

In the long term there will be a coalition of nations that will have the economic, diplomatic, and military clout equal to the Solarian League that will be able to coerce the galaxy into following the Edict. That will not be the case in the short or intermediate term though. I predict a period of blood and chaos that will only gradually be pushed to the margins of the galaxy over time.

Regarding Eridani Edict violations:

If such an incident occurred, the first thing that would happen is that the news would spread - through the merchant ship network and also the interstellar news network (which I imagine would become increasingly valuable as the SL breaks up). Neighbouring planets would contact each other diplomatically and form at the minimum, a temporary defensive agreement. Considering the stakes, it is not the sort of agreement any party would dare renege upon. Larger players further away would hear about it: The GA, various RF planets, Successor states to the SL. There would be ships sent to investigate, the interstellar media would be upon it like flies.

At the minimum the guilty party would experience trade sanctions. More likely they may be invaded for the purpose of regime change or someone else might drop some nukes on their capital etc. (the survivors of the attacked planet perhaps?). Any planet would be very nervous about a neighbour that conducted Eridani Edict violations.

Regarding defense spending:

link:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS

Most real world nation's spend between 1%-5% of GDP on defense. I imagine in the Honorverse about 2-10% of GSP would be spent on defense in the early days, even more for those with threatening neighbours. After things calm down a bit it would drop to about 2% for most star nations.

One possibility is Latin American style battleship arms races, but there would be very few available building slips for them to order ships from (everyone with shipyard capacity would be focused on building their OWN military power unless they were in DIRE financial circumstances). Such star nations would have to try and build a navy themselves and without the technology and experience they would not be able to build a particularly effective navy - some show pieces that they wouldn't risk putting into hyper perhaps.

Hyper capable vessels would be almost vital for defensive reasons because very few nations would be able to defend themselves against all potential aggressors. In order to be safe, most nations would have to form defensive agreements with either their neighbours or some kind of hegemon power. Now there might be some nations willing to assume protectorate status, but I imagine most nations would not unless they were desperate.

Would you be willing to sign a treaty of mutual defense with a star nation that has no hyper-capable warships?

If you were attacked in your own system they literally could not help you militarily. At most they could send you supplies and munitions.

Now having established that mutual defense agreements are vital to self-defense, a pre-requisite of participation in mutual defense agreements is hyper-capable warships. Any star-nation not willing to enter into protectorate status must by necessity have hyper-capable warships.

Another benefit of hyper-capable warships is MAD deterrent against Eridani violations.

Let's face it...

Soon Forakker/Hemphill managing Simoes/Nix, in cooperation with the Beowulf science community, will develop the core tap and the planetary shield...and EE violations will become a thing of the past.

...until the black-hole bomb is developed.

dreamrider

DarkEnigma wrote:

Commodore Oakius wrote:The edict will never die, in name, and perhps even in fact, but the truth be told, it is like cold war threats of nuclear devestation. Go ahead and nuke us, before we die will nuke you back. Go ahead and bomb the planet indiscrimanatly, we'll wipe you out.
The very fact of its existance is the best deterrant. No nation strong enough to resist the galaxy wide outrage of violateing the Edict will do so because of the loss of trade, ships and lives to their own nation as a consequence.

You can't have your cake an eat it too. I'm not trying to pick on you here but your comments are in line with what others have also said. Most people seem to think as you have said that there will be a period of chaos after the fall of the SLN. At the same time you make the case that the Eridani Edict will still be effective because everyone will gang up on whoever violates its spirit. These two claims are mutually exclusive.

If Solarian space devolves into infighting and chaos as we all seem to think is likely, then every system is going to have its own problems to worry about: whether that is economic collapse, external threats from adventurous neighbors, or internal strife. They simply wont have time or ability to care what is going on in a system half-a-galaxy away.

To make matters worse, few systems are going to have spare hyper-capable naval strength to go swat down every backwater warlord who commits atrocities to secure his own power. The GA could police those systems within easy reach of wormhole termini, but the galaxy is a very very big place and the GA will not even come close to being able to put out every fire that sparks in the former Solarian sphere.

In the long term there will be a coalition of nations that will have the economic, diplomatic, and military clout equal to the Solarian League that will be able to coerce the galaxy into following the Edict. That will not be the case in the short or intermediate term though. I predict a period of blood and chaos that will only gradually be pushed to the margins of the galaxy over time.

STOP PICKING ON ME!!!!!!

I don't think you are picking on me! lol
This is why I join forums, to discuss things I am passionate about with people who are as passionate about them as me.
I did say in name if not in fact. And you did bring up a good point about the limited military resources that will be availible on average from system to system.
However:

BobfromSydney wrote:Regarding Eridani Edict violations:

If such an incident occurred, the first thing that would happen is that the news would spread - through the merchant ship network and also the interstellar news network (which I imagine would become increasingly valuable as the SL breaks up). Neighbouring planets would contact each other diplomatically and form at the minimum, a temporary defensive agreement. Considering the stakes, it is not the sort of agreement any party would dare renege upon. Larger players further away would hear about it: The GA, various RF planets, Successor states to the SL. There would be ships sent to investigate, the interstellar media would be upon it like flies.

At the minimum the guilty party would experience trade sanctions. More likely they may be invaded for the purpose of regime change or someone else might drop some nukes on their capital etc. (the survivors of the attacked planet perhaps?). Any planet would be very nervous about a neighbour that conducted Eridani Edict violations.

...

Another benefit of hyper-capable warships is MAD deterrent against Eridani violations.

BobfromSydney explained it better then I did, but I feel as if he was on the same page as I.
It very well could still happen, and there maybe some delay in response for the GA or some other faction that has the capability to respond properly, but it will come. Also, as word spreads of a violation it will encourage other systems nearby to band together for mutual support and push them to develope a stronger military for their own defence. This military build up could lead to misunderstanding with neihbors but that is another argument.

I think that MAD probably has application against state actors. But I'm not so sure against non-state actors such as religious fanatics, political extremists, etc. All it would take would be the wrong weapon in the wrong hands to ruin some planet's day. All things are possible when chaos is king.

Don