GA PR campaign for splitting and collapsing the SL

Too many moving parts. But we still haven't seen all of Lacöon II. There is a military and a political component to consider.

If the GA were going for an immediate military response after 2nd Manticore, the obvious target would be a strike at the battle fleet second wave which ought to have been en route to Tasmania. There will be enough about that in the databases of the captured ships that the GA will know what Rajampet had set up. If they were already moving, then they might not have gotten the stop order from Kingsford before they left for Tasmania. Given the travel times, at least some of those ships should have already gotten their orders, and they could get new orders to move against Beowolf fairly soon. So send someone in to clean up anyone who got there. A little job for Lester and Molly.

The political fragmentation of the League has already started; the numbers of delegates voting against the "investigation" of Beowolf's supposed treason, and the fact that Kolokoltsov (sp?) knows about additional systems debating secession (but not saying anything --yet--to the other Mandarins) means that the GA can give the situation time to ferment a bit. If Kolokoltsov knows about it, it is likely that Beowolf already knows also. Let some of the hysteria die down, and give people in the League a chance to consider their own, local, home-system situation. Let the news from Mobius, Saltash and all those other places get into the breakfast faxes. And publish the ISLN's contingency plans. Give them all some reason to reassess their loyalty to the League without an enemy fleet in orbit. At least the shell systems will know truth when they see it, and core worlds will want out of the recession that they are falling in. And slow going against the Core leaves some leeway for diplomatic manuevering.

Lyonheart, is Manticore still allowing dispatch boats and couriers through the wormholes? If so, the loss of revenue from the protectorates will derive more from the lack of shipment of raw materials to the core, and the non-delivery of goods to the protectorates. Straight up cash may still be moving, though.

Something we haven't seen at all yet, is that the Lacöon II operation is supposed to include the active raiding of Solarian commerce. So that will almost have to be in the next mainline book; that raiding, and the Tasmania raid, will keep the military initiative on the GA's side. Recall from New Tuscany that one of the things that was so disturbing to Adm. Byng was the rapid decision-making that got Gold Peak to NT in the first place, and the comparison to the glacially slow process in the League.

From the League's viewpoint, never having endured any such raiding in the past, it could very well reinforce not only that the GA can get to the core worlds, but can reach --immediately, and without any warning-- almost any part of the League or shell.

I think the League is somewhat like the German Zollverein(Customs Union) in many ways; it is primarily a trade partnership, with the local systems retaining most of their sovereignty. The trouble with the Mandarins, is they are thinking of themselves as the Prussian Junker class--that they are the sole arbiters and decisionmakers. I think for the current current Federal government to survive in power, they will need to suspend a lot of the political freedoms their members enjoy, such as no taxation directly from the League. As local polities feel more direct encroachment from the Feds, they may be less willing to support the League. Manticore should give those member states time to consider that, by leaving the Core for the 2nd offensive, and hitting the FF nodal stations (multiplying the places where FF ships have to respond, making them even thinner on the ground than usual) and such military-industrial locations like Yildun, where Technodyne is a major and legitimate target.

Feel free to poke holes.

Rob

lyonheart wrote:Hi Jonathan_S,

We may differ here on the best approach to smash the SL, I'm not too worried about hurting the Sollie feelings; learning that the people you left in charge were incompetent is painful and terrifying, but how do you tone down the results of their own ignorance?

Only hit them half as hard as they deserve?

We appear to a couple of possible tactical schools here; BobfromSidney's attack only the protectorates to eliminate the mandarin's last source of capital, and your 'more measured or proportional response'.

First, given Lacoon 2's virtual blockade of the SL core, much of the protectorate revenue isn't getting through or getting there far later than the bureaucrats can afford, without direct GA military action, though I suspect that will be happening in a rather major way soon, but not for Bob's economic reasons.

Given the mandarin's attitude toward the constitution, I suspect amending it to permit direct taxation is quite possible if they got 75% of the vote in the EC against Beowulf, though I am sure many more systems will quit if it is attempted since it will prove what Beowulf said was true.

IOW, the economic factors while important won't drive the GA's protectorate offensive, which won't require many if any capitol ships permanently, which thus will handle the core and shell.

However RFC has hinted the value of the Solarian Credit depends on it apparent or appreciative value, which if dashed by evidence its military is totally worthless drops the SC into the sewer, so smashing the BF reserve rather dramatically serves the economic war aspect far better than dragging it out going after the protectorate service fees.

Further comments below:

Jonathan_S wrote:
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Given the disparity in military power I'm almost tempted to argue for a largely reactionary response. Wait until the SLN attacks or raids a GA system, defeat or drive off that force and only then launch a response raid against the sector logistics base that supported the raid.

[/Given the SLN will have invaded sovereign territory of the SEM and Beowulf 4 times before getting into the potential dozens of attacks, ie invasions, resulting from the commerce raiding strategy, does that mean the GA can should or ought to destroy only the 4 SLN bases nearest Beowulf, even if that includes Sol?

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lyonheart wrote:It's been about a year since first NT, almost a year since 2nd NT, around 9 month's from Crandall's crazed public invasion of Spindle and over 4 month's from Filaretta's failed echo at 2ndBoMA; and we still haven't yet seen any major reaction from the verge, protectorate and shell when they ought to have been coming into the GA month's ago at least, if not rather slower to the mandarins who do know how hated they are in the shell, protectorates and verge, and even in the core.

Lyonheart, the reason why the Verge and Protectorates have not as yet erupted, is that Frontier Fleet is still around to back-up the Gendarmerie on the Protectorate planets and to suppress any restiveness in the Verge.

Yes, there have been clashes between the League and Manticore at New Tuscany and Spindle, but those were essentially isolated incidents, and until shortly before Filareta's invasion of the Manticore system Manticore was still seriously committed to finding a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

Sure, Elizabeth and her government weren't very hopeful of such an outcome, but they WERE committed to seeking a diplomatic resolution first before going for the military option.

However, now that Filareta's invasion has made it clear that the League was in fact not going to engage in negotiations but has instead opted for war, Manticore and the GA have the legal justification they needed to initiate hostilities against the League.

We'll start seeing much more restiveness in the Verge and the Protectorates in the next book or two, once the GA begins to chip away at Frontier Fleet's monopoly on military power in those regions.