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SLN Future

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Re: SLN Future
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun May 17, 2020 4:13 pm

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kzt wrote:IIRC, the average core world is 2-3x the population of Manticore. Some have over 30 billion, ten times that of Manticore.

As was noted, the Manticore home system had the highest per-capita GSP. It does not have the highest GSP. And one of the characteristics of the SKM in 1905 was fairly low taxes.


I'm going to agree with kzt here. The SKM had an economy comparable to the best Core System worlds and bigger than most of them. That it was in the Top 1% of all populated systems seems like a reasonable assumption.

That means by corollary that there were other systems with economies and populations that could have done the same. They just chose not to. And yes, it'll take them time to get there. Even if they had the shipyards ready to lay down the keel today, building an 8 MT SD is about a 36-month effort for most people and we're talking about building 150 of them.

It's totally doable. Some of those Core World systems must have been settled for over 1500 years, starting from an industrial level higher than ours today. They're probably way past Kardashev I scale, though I'll note that there seems to be no system that is even close to Kardashev II in the Honorverse -- even the SL itself as a polity may be called Kardashev II.

We don't know if Beowulf was the most prosperous Core System. It seems likely, but it's not a given. Sol definitely had a larger population and larger industrial base (at least until they got a certain visit recently). I wouldn't be surprised to find another Core System that had a population in the 50 billion mark and an industrial output comparable to two or three Beowulfs. That's peanuts in the time scale we're talking about. And mind you, you don't need a populated system to have an industry: find a nearby K-type star with sufficient asteroids, of which there are plenty, set up some auto factories and Von Neumann self-multiplying industries, and you can crank up ships by the thousands. It just seems, like the Kardsashev II scale, David doesn't want to go there. Too much like Dahak, I guess.

There's also the question of whether the crème de la crème of Core Systems will stay in the SL or not. If enough Core Systems leave, the SL crumbles. So I expect David will give us an independence rate around the 33% mark, enough to hurt, but not enough to be fatal.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Sun May 17, 2020 5:30 pm

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Erls wrote:People seem to be back on topic discussing the future of the SLN. Here is how I see a re-formed SLN being composed:

1) The SLN will completely reorganize their naval forces. No longer will there be a Battle Fleet and a Frontier Fleet. Instead, there will an Active Duty Fleet and a Guard Fleet. The ADF will have its HQ in the Sol system (of course), but will have major naval bases spread throughout SL space so that 90% or so of the member systems are within 2 weeks transit. The GF will be more akin to the American National Guard, with the units based in each member's systems and manned by the inhabitants of that system. Each regional base will be supported by multiple systems capable of building and servicing every class of ship, and those systems will get steady orders for work.

2) The order of battle will also change. Instead of having 8,000+ SDs, the SL will instead realize it makes a lot more sense to have a much smaller number of active ships and instead pursue constant evolution and change. That is, ships will be designed to last for 100 years, not 500. They will then be sold for scrap, or used for other purposes.

3) I could see the ADF settling on the following as the official order of battle:
A) 1 Division of SDs per member system.
B) 1 CLAC (and LACs) per member system.
C) 2 Division of BCs per member system.
D) 2 Division of HCs per member system.
E) 1 Squadron (16 ships) of CA/DD per member system.

Each regional HQ will have forces assigned to it roughly proportionate to the number of member systems in its region, minus 10%. The extra 10% from each region will be based in the Sol system as the ready reserve able to respond to any any area of need, or pursue offensive operations outside of SL space.

4) Each member system will be required to have as their reserve (part of the GF), the following:
A) 1 CLAC (and LACs).
B) 1 Division of BCs.
C) 1 Division of HCs.
D) 1 Division (4 ships) of CA.
E) 1 Division (4 ships) of DD.

Each member system could, of course, build additional ships. The SL would cover 75% of the costs of the required ships. The SL would also cover 50% of the costs (based on ADF averages) for each system to build and maintain the order of battle as described in part 3, in addition to the ships described in this part.

5) Each regional base will also have a corresponding R&D facility, and while each facility will share information and findings each facility will be semi-autonomous in what it can research and develop. By that I mean, while Sol can always require research to be done in specific areas, it cannot control more than 50% of the research being done. Sol also cannot forbid or prevent research from being done into any field (provided it is legal, e.g. genetic slavery cannot be done).

Additionally, each regional base will have autonomy in building prototypes of new warships, and can build and maintain up to 1 full squadron of every class of ship of experimental designs. This provision, of course, is to help the SL spur new research and design and stop resting on its laurels.

6) The regional fleets will be required, at least once every 2 years, to have a large contingent of its order of battle participate in combat exercise against a different regional base. The exercise will be held at a third regional base, with the hosting base writing the rules and providing the refs. This is to spur the commanders and crew to continue refining their skills.

That's as far as I've gotten so far. Thoughts?


What is a "HC"?

I think that there will be less uniformity, but I think that you are in the ballpark. The SLN was ridiculously small given the number of systems to be defended and the industrial capacity of the systems. The SLN is an extremely cost effective DETERRENT force, not a defensive force. The SLN didn't have even a theoretical capacity to actually intercept an attack against 90% of its member systems by any force more powerful than a lone cruiser. The only defense for the vast majority of SL systems was the assurance that if you did attack them, a powerful contingent of Frontier Fleet or even Battle Fleet will show up in your home system to kick your ass.

Now that an extraordinarily pissed off woman has visited massive destruction upon Sol system, deterence is no longer credible to either potential attackers or member systems. Every system of consequence within the SL will insist on acquiring and deploying at least a few squadrons of SDs for their own SDF. Continued membership in the SL will probably require them to contribute at least a division or even a squadron to their regional defense force. I expect that each of these regional defense forces will be comparable in numbers to the RMN, the GSN, the Andermandi Navy, or even the RHN. The only factor that will enable the GA to remain dominant will be technological superiority.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by drothgery   » Sun May 17, 2020 8:55 pm

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kzt wrote:As was noted, the Manticore home system had the highest per-capita GSP. It does not have the highest GSP. And one of the characteristics of the SKM in 1905 was fairly low taxes.

It didn't have the highest GSP in 1905, but I believe RFC has said that by immediately prior to Oyster Bay, it did in have the highest GSP. The point being that even the top quartile of core worlds were not within shouting distance Manticore in terms of GSP.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by Sigs   » Sun May 17, 2020 10:27 pm

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The GA went into the SL capital system and made a number of demands, one of them was the disbanding of Frontier Security and the Disbanding of Frontier Fleet, they cant make that demand and then pull out and not try to fill in the vacuum that is left behind by FF, they might have been terrible for the verge but leaving the void without even attempting to do something about it will make the verge hate the GA and give the SL an excuse and justification to go back out into the verge once they have technological parity with the Alliance navies and there is nothing that the Alliance can do to stop them.

However many verge systems there may be, the Alliance should start by going into sectors vacated by Frontier security which already have some stability, Kingdom of Meyers cant be the only Frontier Security client state that can form a stable post war government. If the GA starts with those most likely to succeed long term they can form a core group that can offer long term stability to their region. Lets take Kingdom of Meyers as an example, the GA has to offer the kingdom protection for a set period of time, a period of time that the Kingdom is made aware of at the start of the process during that time the GA will provide the necessary security for the kingdom as long as the kingdom is meeting some criteria:
1)They have to be working on building their own naval force(with GA assistance)
2)They have to be working on building their own Army of a specified size (again with GA assistance)
3)They have to be willing to use their new army and Navy to assist the GA and eventually take over the security and training of their region within a predetermined area thus freeing GA forces to move on to other systems.


The GA steps in and provides immediate security, within a few years there should be enough of a force to take over anti piracy in the system and the region as well as become a regional fleet base for GA forces that will in time be transferred to the local partner forces along with all of it’s components like ship repair yards, training facilities etc… the verge doesn’t really need heavy units at the moment, they need light units and for system protection most systems can work with LAC’s for anti piracy in fact it should be well within the capabilities for most systems to quickly be able to man and operate some LAC’s even if the GA has to leave some training cadre behind. Design and build a modular LAC base with repair facilities and transport them to a target system, assemble the base and man it until such a time as the local government can take over. They don’t need to be massive facilities, all they need at least initially is a base with attached short sleeve repair facilities for 1 or 2 LAC’s and ability to dock at least 6 LAC’s externally with rest and recuperation facilities for 2 squadrons, if a system navy outgrows this base they can get a second base which can double as a forward operating base.

Once a navy is ready to go hyper capable go the frigate route, I know this has been discussed to death, but a Nat Turner-Class frigate is a smaller jump for a navy than going to destroyer/cruiser right off the bat and those ships should meet the needs of most verge navies for the immediate future until they build the support structure and experience to be able to operate heavier units such as destroyers and cruisers.

Ex. Once the Kingdom of Meyers Navy reaches 50 LAC’s operated exclusively on their own, the GA will loan them 2 squadrons of Nat Turners, once they gain experience with the hyper capable frigates they are slowly replaced with 4 destroyer at which point the growth of the navy is paced on their comfort level and funding, from that point on their expand based on their ability to sustain financially. Initially the GA takes the reigns and guides the new nations and their navies but after they have proven themselves capable with hyper capable ships and operating and maintain multi ship fleets, they can advice but not make the decisions for those navies. The Nat Turners are then returned to the GA, they go through a refit and are loaned out to the next navy going through this change.

The goal should be to get as many systems protected by some LAC’s and then focus on the most likely to succeed and go from there, go at the pace that the GA can sustain because there is no way the GA can protect every system from the get go but since they are forcing FS out of the verge they have an obligation to take up the slack.


For some verge systems it will take many decades for them to get out of poverty, gain stability and grow their economy enough to require more than a few LAC’s, for others they can grow fast enough, and their economy could grow fast enough that in 20-30 years they can have SD(P)’s of their own. If the Ga prioritizes on those most likely to grow quickly they can subsequently use those systems to grow their neighbours, use those system navies to take over security duties for their neighbours from the GA. And who knows, in the long run they can create a few new multi system nations that can become very power alliance members. Out of 4,000+ members, how many have circumstances that will allow them to grow like Grayson did? True their will be slower growth because of the number of systems and also the fact that the GA itself is rebuilding and growing their systems but these systems will represent security for the Alliance in 40+ years with their own SD(P)’s. They may not field large navies individually but they would be all around the League or whatever is left of the League and that in and of itself would be quite the motivation not to go to war with the Alliance.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by kzt   » Sun May 17, 2020 10:36 pm

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I'll point out that the RMN has no shipyards. It just got tens trillions of dollars of infrastructure blown up and needs to be replaced before the build anything for anyone. And when they do, random strangers without any money are probably not on the top of the list.

No democracy ends a decade long war that has cost millions of their citizens lives and decides that, now that the war is over, let's quadruple the navy and double the tax rate to pay for it so we can altruistically police the galaxy.

Certainly not any democratic government that plans to remain in power.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by Galactic Sapper   » Mon May 18, 2020 6:53 pm

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Erls wrote:6) The regional fleets will be required, at least once every 2 years, to have a large contingent of its order of battle participate in combat exercise against a different regional base. The exercise will be held at a third regional base, with the hosting base writing the rules and providing the refs. This is to spur the commanders and crew to continue refining their skills.

That's as far as I've gotten so far. Thoughts?

In addition to fleet level interactions like this, I'd also recommend having Joint Service experience be part of career progression for both officer and NCOs.

Most of your system defense personnel are going to spend most of their career inside the system. To promote a sense of being a unified service I'd want to see assigned tours of duty (1-2 years) in the regional or central reserve fleet for any enlisted as a prereq to being promoted to CPO and repeated every 8-10 years or so afterward. Likewise a Joint Service tour as a prereq for officers to be promoted to Commander with repeats slightly more frequently than the enlisted. The idea being that if a reserve formation needs to be called in to a system everyone needs to be speaking the same language and using the same training manual. Personal experience with people you're likely to work with in an emergency is another benefit.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by Sigs   » Mon May 18, 2020 7:02 pm

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kzt wrote:I'll point out that the RMN has no shipyards. It just got tens trillions of dollars of infrastructure blown up and needs to be replaced before the build anything for anyone. And when they do, random strangers without any money are probably not on the top of the list.

No democracy ends a decade long war that has cost millions of their citizens lives and decides that, now that the war is over, let's quadruple the navy and double the tax rate to pay for it so we can altruistically police the galaxy.

Certainly not any democratic government that plans to remain in power.


Then they should go back to the League and ask them to keep control of the verge. Can't have it both ways, cant keep the SLN from maintain shitty peace in the verge and at the same time not doing anything to keep peace in the verge. If they prevent the SLN from maintaining the peace, no matter how terrible the peace is and at the same time they have no desire to take the job they will end up the most hated in the galaxy and when the SLN comes back in 5-10 years down the line the GA will have no say in the matter, in fact many in the verge might actually be asking for League support.

Here are the Options for the GA:
a) Leave the SLN in place to continue their occupation of the verge and don't get involved.

b) Negotiate with the SL to have a joint effort in the verge that eventually allows for the verge nations to be self sufficient in defence.

c) Take over the role of peacekeeper in the verge and find a way to make it work.

d) Kick out the SLN and leave the region to their own devices, when the wars, piracy and mass killings start it would rightfully be placed squarely in front of the GA.

Consequences:
a)Likely nothing changes, the same corrupt officials will do the same corrupt actions while the rest of the League ignores FS and focuses on their own problems.

b) Always being on their toes because the SLN might do something to put the GA in terrible light and this might attach the GA with any and all atrocities that are committed by the GA. Nothing changes because the SLN will know the GA needs them and they will go back to business as usual which puts the GA in very questionable territory.

c) This gives the GA a chance to build multiple nations that will naturally be suspicious of the League and align with the GA, expand future markets and get allies who would be highly motivated to stand with the GA should the SL try to get some sort of revenge.

d) The GA will get the blame for every atrocity, every death and every pirate in the verge, so much in fact that the SLN can waltz in at some point in the future and the GA wont be able to say anything about it, this is a way for someone in the League to use against the GA...look at all this atrocities that happened because of them, they said we were bad but it was nowhere near this when we were in the verge.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by cthia   » Mon May 18, 2020 7:16 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:The Peeps stockpiled an abundance of BBs at Bolthole. If the SL can cut into the GAs range advantage and mostly concentrate on building one ship type, like the Peeps, thousands of them, can't they quickly get back on balance?


Where did you get that Bolthole had BBs? The 374 that the PN had at the beginning of the first war ware not in Bolthole. From all we know, Bolthole shipyards didn't come online until late in the first war, too late to make a difference before Buttercup. And at that point, they'd build SDs, not BBs.

But yes, the SLN can quickly deploy SD(P)s carrying Cataphract pods. I'd say within 2 T-years, if they want to press it.

Other equalising technologies, not so much.

Three-stage missiles: The Cataphract is a dual-stage and it's huge. The SLN and their contractors have little idea for now how to build the baffles and compact fusion reactors to build something equivalent. Similarly, they don't have cruiser- and destroyer-sized dual-drive missiles.

High bandwidth FTL comms: they don't have FTL comms at all right now, but the principle is known. They can probably get something quickly, like the Havenites did in preparation for Thunderbolt. But widening the bandwidth will take some time in pure research. More likely, this will come out of stealing some Hermes Buoys and reverse-engineering them.

FTL-equipped, stealth recon drones: this means small enough, which is something the Havenites hadn't yet reproduced. Even after reverse-engineering Hermes, this doesn't give them sufficient stealth. I doubt the MAlign will be contributing theirs now.

Either way, Hermes probably won't get them all the way to an Apollo Control Missile. Add to that the Keyhole II electronics, which is not likely to be reproduced easily.

Finally, there's all the algorithms built-in to point-defence and EW. Again something that the RHN didn't manage to reproduce yet and they were much further ahead than the SLN was.

Sorry, perhaps I misspoke. I thought I remembered textev saying the surplus of BBs was made possible by the buffer created by Bolthole and that some of them had actually come from Bolthole. Simply not enough to alarm the SK that something was afoot.

All of the other tech advantages of the GA will go away in one fell swoop if a workable FTL - even with reduced bandwidth - is attained, along with the need to cut into the GAs missile range. Why?

Quantity would also have an "equalizing quality" all its own, with a little help from a crude FTL system. E.g., being behind the curve in control channels also goes away if you have several thousand more ships launching half the salvos.

You shouldn't underestimate the tech base of the SL. Nobody ever questioned it in the SK. The only thing that was holding the SLN back was arrogance. As I said, UH corroborated the belief the SL could implement new systems quickly. I don't think FTL is going to cause them as much of a problem as you think. Remember the adage applied to the Peeps. "They don't have to build tech as good as ours, but simply good enough."

Say they manage FTL systems but with half the bandwidth of the GA. Good enough when you outnumber the enemy 10 to 1.

Do they have dual drive missiles for their BBs and BCs? If I ran the SL, I would concentrate on mass producing one big-assed ship type. Thousands of them. The energy weapon abilities of SDs just don't seem to be needed anymore.

The future of the SLN is not in jeopardy. The cradle of mankind's navy will not go quietly into the night. Unrealistic. That big bastard couldn't commit suicide if she tried. She will only regenerate every time. That is the gist behind this obviously too cerebral thread.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: SLN Future
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm

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Sigs wrote:Then they should go back to the League and ask them to keep control of the verge. Can't have it both ways, cant keep the SLN from maintain shitty peace in the verge and at the same time not doing anything to keep peace in the verge. If they prevent the SLN from maintaining the peace, no matter how terrible the peace is and at the same time they have no desire to take the job they will end up the most hated in the galaxy and when the SLN comes back in 5-10 years down the line the GA will have no say in the matter, in fact many in the verge might actually be asking for League support.


Don't forget that the FF was the reason for most problems in the Verge. Removing it from the equation should improve things. Pirates are few and far between and have limited legs. As discussed in the Space Piracy thread, they need a well-trafficked system to prey upon, with little chance of being intercepted, and a nearby port to offload their ill-gotten gains, within travel distance. Remove any of those and the pirate won't last very long. Stealing orbital industry doesn't seem very fruitful to me, since they're hard to sell and hard to haul away. The pirates would need to come with a huge freighter in the first place to take it away.

Not saying it's impossible. I'm saying it's rare.

Edited text:
Here are the Options for the GA:
a) Leave the SLN in place to continue their occupation of the verge and don't get involved.
Consequences:
a)Likely nothing changes, the same corrupt officials will do the same corrupt actions while the rest of the League ignores FS and focuses on their own problems.


Agreed.

b) Negotiate with the SL to have a joint effort in the verge that eventually allows for the verge nations to be self sufficient in defence.
b) Always being on their toes because the SLN might do something to put the GA in terrible light and this might attach the GA with any and all atrocities that are committed by the GA. Nothing changes because the SLN will know the GA needs them and they will go back to business as usual which puts the GA in very questionable territory.


You can limit the damage by limiting how many SLN ships are allowed. I said before in other threads I'd expect Kingsford to push for this, to show the Galaxy at large and the GA in particular that they've turned a page. Until the technology equalises, I don't think Kingsford will want business as usual either. So I don't agree that nothing changes.

c) Take over the role of peacekeeper in the verge and find a way to make it work.
c) This gives the GA a chance to build multiple nations that will naturally be suspicious of the League and align with the GA, expand future markets and get allies who would be highly motivated to stand with the GA should the SL try to get some sort of revenge.


As kzt said, this is a huge investment and long-term commitment of manpower and ships. Until such nations have a leg to stand on their own, it ties up far too much of the GF.

d) Kick out the SLN and leave the region to their own devices, when the wars, piracy and mass killings start it would rightfully be placed squarely in front of the GA.

d) The GA will get the blame for every atrocity, every death and every pirate in the verge, so much in fact that the SLN can waltz in at some point in the future and the GA wont be able to say anything about it, this is a way for someone in the League to use against the GA...look at all this atrocities that happened because of them, they said we were bad but it was nowhere near this when we were in the verge.


I don't agree that this immediately leads to wars, piracy and mass killings. As I said above, OFS and FF were the main instigators of instability in the Verge in the first place. When they weren't the pirates themselves, they created conditions for pirates. Remove them and the situation improves.

There'll be pirates. But as I said, pirates want systems with sufficient traffic to prey upon. Such systems will actually have the ability to buy a few LACs and a DD to patrol (at worst, create a small self-protection defence force like the Rembrandt Trade Union was). They're also the ones that GA ships would naturally visit more often.

Failed pirates are no consolation for their victims, though. But at least it won't be a continuing problem.

Anyway, I think the best option is a combination of options (b), (c) and (d). That is, reduce the overall military presence in the Verge, but what continues is a combination of GA forces or GA supervising SLN.
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Re: SLN Future
Post by kzt   » Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 pm

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No, a significant percentage of the planets controlled by OFS got there because they proved unable to run their system successfully. IIRC, at least two of the systems that had viewpoint characters both felt that OFS control had been a necessary evil at the time. One because their government proved unable to protect the planet. I forget the other, but I vaguely remember it had to do with some sort of genocidal political dispute on the planet.
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