New passive defense system

SWM wrote:I'm wondering where so many people got the idea that there were SDF observers around the Manticore-Haven wars. We know that there were some observers from tech firms, but I don't believe there is any text indicating that individual SDFs sent observers.

It was mentioned in lots of places, but I had MoH open.

MOH
"Beowulf was also the only League member system which had been kept routinely up to date on Manticoran military developments. The Beowulf System-Defense Force and the Royal Navy had been quietly in agreement that it would be in both services' best interests if Beowulf didn't suddenly began introducing Manticore's new tech goodies into its own ships, where they might find their way into the SLN's less than pristine hands, and the BSDF had somehow mysteriously failed to provide any of those "observers" the SLN had been so busily ignoring for so long. But that didn't mean Beowulf didn't have a very good basic grasp of what Manticore had been up to. Not only that, but Beowulf was the only non-Manticoran star system which had been included from the beginning in planning for Case Lacoön, and there were all sorts of open channels of communication between the Beowulf Planetary Board of Directors and Her Majesty's Government."

Observers are mentioned, but nowhere is it indicated that anybody let them sit on the warships.

So observers are probably gleaning stuff from news media, or from sensor records taken from neutral ships insystem (eg, merchants, or visiting warships) when an attack happened to occur.

2nd Basilisk, both Zanzibar raids, some Peep scouting raids, the Icarus Alison raid, some of the Buttercup attacks, all of the Cutworm raids and the Battle of Manticore did take place in systems with some significant traffic. So it is likely that there are sensor records to study, some of which might even be first-hand data.

However...nearly all of this data is going to be 1st war stuff, that was over a decade of constant warfare without much innovation beyond towed missile pods. Buttercup was pretty brief. The crazy stuff going on in the 2nd war has been in a very compressed timeframe, something like under 2 years.

So the preponderance of data will reinforce existing views, beyond proving the power of laser heads and making folks think hard about missile pods. The wild-eyed stuff coming out of Buttercup and the 2nd war is going to be pretty hard to believe to anyone who wasn't there, and there has been enough propaganda flying around that you could make a case that both sides might exaggerate the power of Manticore or Haven to explain failures.

Think about what a Cutworm raid and the response would look like to an observer. Manticorans come in with a few SD-sized impellers, some BC sized impellers and a quite large swarm of light craft. Defending is a bunch of lacs and a handful of CA-BC sized ships. Most of the killing is against infrastructure - the defenders fire off system defense pods and surrender for the most part. Very little happens that couldn't be done with 1905 equipment, if one side was outmatched enough. Quite honestly, a division of SD's and BC's supported by a couple hundred lacs and DD's would take out most systems in the SLN even with 1905 tech, if they don't have fortresses big enough to paste them with system defense missiles.

Even where the missile salvos are reported accurately, it would likely be assumed they aren't controlled (as at 2nd Basilisk) and they're only getting hits because the neobarbs out there have suck EW. Or alternately the small number of ships on both sides would be inflated to make the numbers fit the salvos of missiles and countermissiles (similar to how at 1st Hancock, launching a bunch of missiles from pods made Chin think she might be facing a battle squadron and reinforced the illusion from EW drones)

I'd bet the Mesan Alignment had some very good observers on scene. One probable ploy would be to upgrade some of its freighters with more advanced sensors.

I'll be there are other SDFs who have taken similar measures to keep an eye on developments in the Haven sector.

Of course another possibility is that some of the independant merchies that are cammanded and owned by people such as Captain Backfish might have upgraded sensors on their merchant ships. They'd report back to their homeworld and perhaps sell info to highest bidder.

Some of the bigger battles such as the Peep raid on Basilisk that got blown away by Adm Yanakov's mass transit and of course the Battle of Manticore were witnessed by numerous merchant ships. While the SLN is denying the evidence, everyone with a brain is realizing that there has been a fundamental change in the missile combat environment. They simply can't ignore the evidence of the effective engagement ranges.

Here is my problem. People in general don't try to act completely stupid and ignorant. Said observers who were actually sent out would do their best to be accurate. Thus, the base information is there. Now if said analysis of said 'basically accurate observed data' is twisted into a pretzel, its not the problem of the observers, rather the analysts who either do or do not want to hear reality. Or twist it for their superiors.

I mean this was the whole premise with Teaque and whats her face in the FF OpAn side of things.

Just because there were bury your head in sand ostriches in the SLN does not mean in Any way that there are said folks in the SDF's who spent their OWN money to send their own observers out there.

People on general principles don't try to act like complete idiots, though they do so on quite a consistent basis.

namelessfly wrote:I'd bet the Mesan Alignment had some very good observers on scene. One probable ploy would be to upgrade some of its freighters with more advanced sensors.

I'll be there are other SDFs who have taken similar measures to keep an eye on developments in the Haven sector.

Of course another possibility is that some of the independant merchies that are cammanded and owned by people such as Captain Backfish might have upgraded sensors on their merchant ships. They'd report back to their homeworld and perhaps sell info to highest bidder.

Some of the bigger battles such as the Peep raid on Basilisk that got blown away by Adm Yanakov's mass transit and of course the Battle of Manticore were witnessed by numerous merchant ships. While the SLN is denying the evidence, everyone with a brain is realizing that there has been a fundamental change in the missile combat environment. They simply can't ignore the evidence of the effective engagement ranges.

kzt wrote:

SWM wrote:I'm wondering where so many people got the idea that there were SDF observers around the Manticore-Haven wars. We know that there were some observers from tech firms, but I don't believe there is any text indicating that individual SDFs sent observers.

It was mentioned in lots of places, but I had MoH open.

MOH
"Beowulf was also the only League member system which had been kept routinely up to date on Manticoran military developments. The Beowulf System-Defense Force and the Royal Navy had been quietly in agreement that it would be in both services' best interests if Beowulf didn't suddenly began introducing Manticore's new tech goodies into its own ships, where they might find their way into the SLN's less than pristine hands, and the BSDF had somehow mysteriously failed to provide any of those "observers" the SLN had been so busily ignoring for so long. But that didn't mean Beowulf didn't have a very good basic grasp of what Manticore had been up to. Not only that, but Beowulf was the only non-Manticoran star system which had been included from the beginning in planning for Case Lacoön, and there were all sorts of open channels of communication between the Beowulf Planetary Board of Directors and Her Majesty's Government."

Yes, Beowulf knows about the Manticore developments. But Beowulf is a special case, and even in your quotation, it does not say that Beowulf has observers. It says the SLN has observers, but that is not the same as individual SDFs having observers. Yes, we know that the SLN has observers. We know that the news crews have reporters in some systems, but that is not the same as "observers". And nowhere can I find a reference to SDFs having observers. Have I missed something, or are people making unwarranted assumptions?

Given my brain dead memory, I'll leave it to someone else find the texttev. However; I destinctly remember comments among the SLN hierchy about the outrageous reports from observers sent to the Haven quadrant by various SDFs.

Given Weber's posts about how pathetic most SDFs are, I'd expect that the vast majority wouldn't pay any attention and just rely on the SLN to keep tabs on the neobarbs. However; Weber mentions that some SDF's have significant merchant fleets that they need to safeguard so they'll have commerce protection units. PResuming that these units use the Manticore Wormhole junction, these warships might have observed some battles. They'll also have contacts with lots of merchant ships that might have observed some battles.

I'd also expect the various news organizations to do a little data collecting. Combat video footage is good for ratings, at least for a while. A spectacular battle in which dozens of SDs die in a single salvo is going to boost add revenue through the roof. You can bet that at least one Sollie news corp had a ship with a reasonably decent sensor suite stationed at Manticore and the various terminae just in case their was a battle worth recording.

SWM wrote:I'm wondering where so many people got the idea that there were SDF observers around the Manticore-Haven wars. We know that there were some observers from tech firms, but I don't believe there is any text indicating that individual SDFs sent observers.

SFtS:

Still, even Frontier Fleet's reports had sounded almost rational and reasonable compared to the ludicrous claims being made by some of the system-defense forces. God only knew why any of them had bothered to send observers to watch two batches of neobarbs five hundred light-years from nowhere in particular butchering each other with muzzle-loading cannon and cutlasses in the first place. Perhaps that was part of the explanation for the wild exaggerations some of those observers had included in their reports? Not even an SDF admiral was going to send a competent officer that far out to the back of beyond. No, he was going to send someone whose services could be easily dispensed with . . . and who wouldn't be missed for the weeks or months he'd spend in transit.

Because it's mentioned in the text.

You are not allowed to introduce facts into a rant.

Hmm facts in a rant? Yes, very poor rant etiqute.

Thank you for the texttev entry with citation. This is exactly as my tortured brain cells recalled it.

We have Frontier Fleet sending observers and based on the scenes in SFtS where the FF intelligence officer gets sidelined for being an alarmist, some officers in Frontier Fleet have been taking note of developments. After New Tuscany then Spindle, they'll reread all fo the alarmist intelligence reports with less skepticsm.

We still do not know how many SDFs have been sending observers out to appraise the Havenite/Manticore war. It certainly isn't 1,800 SDFs or even 1,000 SDFs and probably not even 500 SDFs. However; there have probably been dozens or scores or even a few hundred SDFs who have been sending observers out. All of the predators have no doubt sent out observers. No doubt some of the larger, more powerful, but benign SDFs have sent out observers. It is probable that many SDFs that have little more than a few flotillas of LACs ahve sent out observers just out of curiosity, but they've chosen to pass the info on to the SLN rather than try to build up their own fleet. However; once news of New Tuscany then Spindle then Manticore reaches the SL, all of these systmes are going to realize that they are up feces creek without a paddle.

It is realtively easy for me to imagine the political dynamics among the SL worlds once it is known that the SLN has gotten its ass kicked.. Most people in the US ahve a theoretical right to own firearms and about half choose to own a few hunting weapons or smallish handguns. Very few people choose to carry a gun or own some serious firepower and maintain a significant inventory of ammunition. Such people are considerred politically incorrect or even suspected of being antigovernment extremists, especially if they happen to own a copy of the US Constitution and a Bible. However; given some natural catastrophe or terrorist attack that renders the government impotent, these poeple are going to either going to isolate themselves, prey upon or protect their neighbors. Those who are willing to protect their neighbors are going to demand fealty.

Thirdbase wrote:

SWM wrote:I'm wondering where so many people got the idea that there were SDF observers around the Manticore-Haven wars. We know that there were some observers from tech firms, but I don't believe there is any text indicating that individual SDFs sent observers.

SFtS:

Still, even Frontier Fleet's reports had sounded almost rational and reasonable compared to the ludicrous claims being made by some of the system-defense forces. God only knew why any of them had bothered to send observers to watch two batches of neobarbs five hundred light-years from nowhere in particular butchering each other with muzzle-loading cannon and cutlasses in the first place. Perhaps that was part of the explanation for the wild exaggerations some of those observers had included in their reports? Not even an SDF admiral was going to send a competent officer that far out to the back of beyond. No, he was going to send someone whose services could be easily dispensed with . . . and who wouldn't be missed for the weeks or months he'd spend in transit.

Because it's mentioned in the text.