How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?

There is certainly a lot of equipment and tools that Manticore and others could import for the rebuilding and as they are buying a lot of what they need from Beowulf they are probably getting as much of the state-of-the-art items as possible from Beowulf.
One of the challenges, however, is that the processes and tech that Manticore and Grayson had been using for the military and high end gear was somewhat ahead of much of the SL and Beowulf may not have had all that long to get the required manufacturing geared up.

Yes, Beowulf is producing quality goods. At this point Haven is doing some of that. What is really needed is for the entire feeder chains of the production facilities and manufacturing have to be at least replaced at the peak capacity with the quality and high end tech as they were before Oyster Bay. At some point fairly early on there is going to be a gap between buying manufaturing equipment from out-system (and out of the tier of Manticore, Beowulf, Erwhon and the IAE because while you may be able to by NEW prodution equipment, you won't be able to buy equipment with the ability to be used to manufacture they higher end products you need. All that bleeding edge military and scientifc gear. Shipyards to build the most recent designer. Tools to build the tools to build the tools......there better be a point shortly where Manticore and Grayson have at least one of each total manufacturing and supply production line to produce their high end warfighting and government needs.
Same for replacing the volume of consumer and export goods along with commerical production.
It's probably going to be a race between getting their nessisary manufactring infrastructure back to needed levels and getting the minimum number of people trained to keep production moving with quality and consistency.
Manticore has to both replace the ability to maintain/improve the RMN and generate income with exports of Manticorian goods.
Even with all sorts of political and other goals of assisting with the recovery of systems decimated by the SL's activities, a lot of the assistance being set out is going to have to head in the direction of their Talbot and Silesian systems. Why? Because that is going to strengthen the Empire from the standpoints of both bringing them more solidly into the Empire politicaly and ecomomicaly while raising the capasities of those systems for levels of tech. Improve the general educations levels and technology and capaisity of the populations how to raise their standards of living.

There are a lot of issues that David is pretty much handwaving away because he doesn't want to tell that story.

The story of why you can't build another Saturn V despite out having all the plans is part of it. The sorry tale of FOGBANK production is another part of it.

Essentially Honorverse tech can miraculously produce any item at any required precision given design drawings. They never have undocumented procedures, manufacturing tricks, calibration procedures that require experts, OEM parts that you bought off-the-shelf and didn't have plans for, complex hardware and software always works perfectly the first time, etc.

My prediction is that barring a massive retooling of Manticore's economy, they're economy will crash in 5ish years, unless the leaders of Darius decide to surgically implant an idiot ball into their own heads.

Specifically, the Manticorian economy will crash right into the weapons that should be launched in Oyster Bay 2.0 shortly.

See the position of Darius's leadership is simple: Manticore just murdered hundreds of millions of people in a system they thought were responsible for Oyster Bay. While Darius might not have 100% direct proof, the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming*. Seeing as how Darius is actually responsible for Oyster Bay, they will almost certainly murder hundreds of millions or more of your people when they find Darius.

With great sorrow, the only option is to end the threat Manticore poses before they locate Darius. Manticore is capable of denying the Darius Navy good targeting data, and capable of stopping an attack that hypers in close to the system, but they cannot stop an attack launched from close to a light year away, and good targeting data is unneeded to strike a planet.

Thus, it is truly unfortunate that they had to launch against Manticore.

Okay, yes the Darius leadership knows that a few of those details are fabricated, but unless they want to come out and confess to people, they should act in accordance with their lies. With any luck, as long as you hide for a few decades after the strike human nature will have blamed Manticore. The Just World Fallacy is a strong one.

Now Manticore could retool its economy to produce tens of thousands of block ships or habitat ships to protect themselves from the incoming doom.


*Manticore is stuck between a rock and a hard place on the Mesa situation. Either they allow a real, open investigation or they don't allow a real investigation. A real investigation will uncover their involvement in the Green Pines Massacre, in which case Manticore is damned because nuking civilians is their MO. If they don't allow an investigation Manticore is damned because they are covering up the truth of the matter. Their best hope is to obfuscate and stall for as long as possible in hopes they can prove at least some of the nukes were set by someone else.

quite possibly a cat wrote:See the position of Darius's leadership is simple: Manticore just murdered hundreds of millions of people in a system they thought were responsible for Oyster Bay. While Darius might not have 100% direct proof, the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming*. Seeing as how Darius is actually responsible for Oyster Bay, they will almost certainly murder hundreds of millions or more of your people when they find Darius.

With great sorrow, the only option is to end the threat Manticore poses before they locate Darius. Manticore is capable of denying the Darius Navy good targeting data, and capable of stopping an attack that hypers in close to the system, but they cannot stop an attack launched from close to a light year away, and good targeting data is unneeded to strike a planet.

Thus, it is truly unfortunate that they had to launch against Manticore.

Okay, yes the Darius leadership knows that a few of those details are fabricated, but unless they want to come out and confess to people, they should act in accordance with their lies. With any luck, as long as you hide for a few decades after the strike human nature will have blamed Manticore. The Just World Fallacy is a strong one.

Actually the leadership at Darius knows ALL those details are fabricated: they know the explosions were set to hide the final traces of Houdini. That is no reason to change your prediction though, since they still want the Renaissance Factor to rule and the opposing alliance is much too strong.

tlb wrote:

quite possibly a cat wrote:See the position of Darius's leadership is simple: Manticore just murdered hundreds of millions of people in a system they thought were responsible for Oyster Bay. While Darius might not have 100% direct proof, the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming*. Seeing as how Darius is actually responsible for Oyster Bay, they will almost certainly murder hundreds of millions or more of your people when they find Darius.

With great sorrow, the only option is to end the threat Manticore poses before they locate Darius. Manticore is capable of denying the Darius Navy good targeting data, and capable of stopping an attack that hypers in close to the system, but they cannot stop an attack launched from close to a light year away, and good targeting data is unneeded to strike a planet.

Thus, it is truly unfortunate that they had to launch against Manticore.

Okay, yes the Darius leadership knows that a few of those details are fabricated, but unless they want to come out and confess to people, they should act in accordance with their lies. With any luck, as long as you hide for a few decades after the strike human nature will have blamed Manticore. The Just World Fallacy is a strong one.

Actually the leadership at Darius knows ALL those details are fabricated: they know the explosions were set to hide the final traces of Houdini. That is no reason to change your prediction though, since they still want the Renaissance Factor to rule and the opposing alliance is much too strong.

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As touched on earlier in this thread,
(1) Manticore still has the largest active merchant fleet
(2) Expect merchant trade will SIGNIFICANTLY increase with x-SL systems and sectors with economic growth in those sectors (and helping the growth/recovery of Manticore & Grayson)
(3) FF/CL/CA construction will resume -- after facilities are re-built -- part of Manticore/Grayson recovery; Naval "light" craft still needed for commerce protection since the smaller bad guys are still there.
(4) (Dead Horse Alert) Rehab and FTL-comm upgrade for x-SLN light craft (DD/CL/CA) for friendly, new-independent systems for Comm-compatibility with Alliance vessels.
(5) Darius/Rennaisance Factor will want to operate from shadows until the SD-sized Lenny-Dets are ready (text-ev indicates approx. 5-15 years projected).

Above leads to window of serious economic/industrial growth for GA and Friendlies. I do not expect Hemphill & Foracker to be idle during that window.

-- Stewart

Now that others have weighed in.
My prediction is that after five years of rebuilding from Oyster Bay and building up and modernizing the new member systems as has occurred with Grayson, the economic and industrial output of the SEM will be about an order of magnitude greater than the old SKM. The SEM will have a bigger economy and military potential than Haven or the Andermandi Empire as well as most plausible SL successor states.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Now that others have weighed in.
My prediction is that after five years of rebuilding from Oyster Bay and building up and modernizing the new member systems as has occurred with Grayson, the economic and industrial output of the SEM will be about an order of magnitude greater than the old SKM. The SEM will have a bigger economy and military potential than Haven or the Andermandi Empire as well as most plausible SL successor states.

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There are certainly opportunities for economic development --
(1) on-going space station rebuild at SKM/SEM 3 home planets and San Martin. (Tools to make tools)
(2) Ongoing rebuild at Grayson/Yeltsin
(3) Assistance to Beowulf station rebuilds -- this possibly with SL finances as reparation penalties.
(4) removal of the overt SLN threat allows greater development in Talbot Quadrant --(a) Medical, (b) educational, (c) Industrial (shipyards and "mini-Blackbirds"
(5) New trade with Haven
(6) New trade with multiple new-independent (and friendly) verge systems and sectors
(7) Development of Manticoran Silecia (see above for parallel with Talbot)
(8) Major recycling/reclamation of x-SLN hulls in Talbot and SKM home system for raw materials

Multiple opportunities.

-- Stewart

In the honorverse you don’t need tools to make tools. Anyone’s tools can make anything given the prints.

A consideration:

Much has been laid at the feet of a revitalizing Manty merchant marine. There are two significant problems with this:

1) The British merchant fleets after whom the Manties are styled was busy transporting the fruits of a world spanning colonial empire and the products of the early industrial revolution that was fed by that empire. Alas, the Manty consumer tech/industry base was blown to smithereens. I imagine luxury good and non-vital commodity production was not high on the priority list compared to say, missile production lines. I also imagine that “act of god/war” losses probably crippled vast swathes of the private sector with no hope of recompense - even if we ignore the probable Great Depression level effects as entire investment group and funds lose every piece of capital they own, and off-world trade suddenly goes to zero because you have nothing to trade - the Merchant Marine is now more Maersk than the East India Company. A shipping line for other people’s goods. Maersk has yet to subsidize Pax Denmark-ia.

2) Lets imagine that somehow, despite its explicit destruction and being on war footing for twenty years, the Manty non-military industrial base is still running strong. Their biggest recipient was the Solarian League. The league provided an accessible, secure, rich market with a reasonably unified poltical and legal structure which ensured that aside from a few new-barb regions most people could enjoy the Space International Waters with Sollie backing. Basically, the Manties got to free ride the SL hegemony. But now the league is fracturing, weakened, and is trying to form a new basis of government for 1728 star systems in a month while the Manties point a gun at their heads. All of a sudden the great free trading zone...isn’t. The costs and risks of trading are about to expand, wildly.

GloriousRuse wrote:A consideration:

Much has been laid at the feet of a revitalizing Manty merchant marine. There are two significant problems with this:

1) The British merchant fleets after whom the Manties are styled was busy transporting the fruits of a world spanning colonial empire and the products of the early industrial revolution that was fed by that empire. Alas, the Manty consumer tech/industry base was blown to smithereens. I imagine luxury good and non-vital commodity production was not high on the priority list compared to say, missile production lines. I also imagine that “act of god/war” losses probably crippled vast swathes of the private sector with no hope of recompense - even if we ignore the probable Great Depression level effects as entire investment group and funds lose every piece of capital they own, and off-world trade suddenly goes to zero because you have nothing to trade - the Merchant Marine is now more Maersk than the East India Company. A shipping line for other people’s goods. Maersk has yet to subsidize Pax Denmark-ia.

2) Lets imagine that somehow, despite its explicit destruction and being on war footing for twenty years, the Manty non-military industrial base is still running strong. Their biggest recipient was the Solarian League. The league provided an accessible, secure, rich market with a reasonably unified poltical and legal structure which ensured that aside from a few new-barb regions most people could enjoy the Space International Waters with Sollie backing. Basically, the Manties got to free ride the SL hegemony. But now the league is fracturing, weakened, and is trying to form a new basis of government for 1728 star systems in a month while the Manties point a gun at their heads. All of a sudden the great free trading zone...isn’t. The costs and risks of trading are about to expand, wildly.

1. Much of what the merchant fleet was carrying was Solarian to Solarian trade, which is why Laccoon I was so effective. How much of that will come back is questionable. The Solarian core worlds were basically unaffected by the war (except for the infrastructure at Sol itself). The biggest effects on the League will be planets leaving (like Beowulf) and the breaking of ties to the Verge.

2. Making that assumption; the question is how much of the trade formerly with the League will be replaced by trade with Haven, the Talbot Quadrant and the acquired section of Silesia? Whatever it is, the merchant fleet will switch to these new routes away from the League (unless the League welcomes some back).