Watch the Solarian League's demise

Brigade XO wrote:We had a snippet of a couple of SLN officers talking about takeing a force to go beat up some system- apparently neutral or at least not SL- for trading with Manticore and/or Beowulf. Thats not commerce raiding, that a punitive strike both as punishment to the locals and a object lesson and warning to everybody else.

The commerce raideing Kingsford is talking about is sending out ships to take or destroy shipping belonging to Manticore and friends and probably will include anybody in elce they find in a system tied to Manticore or the GA. If they also destroy orbital infrastructure of a Manticore allied system that is probably on the list of options if they can get away with it.
At present, the SLN raiders might want to think really carefully about going into a system with a GA warship present and perhaps mostly destroy merchant ships outside or really close inside hyperlimits and then withdrawing (run away?) before anyting dangerous shows up.

Kingsford does have some advantages with the raiding scheme. While SLN does have to go where there is shipping, they don't have to go to high military traffic locations or where the GA is known (or might be known) to have forces. The GA on the other hand, is going to have to take steps to both patrol or guard aginst the raiders and that is another drain on forces.

Give it a year and see who makes out better- with the exception of the merchant crews and various warship crews who are killed in the meantime.

[Headline] Frontier Fleet Scoes Major Victory over Manticore.

In what was described as a routine "show the flag" operation in the Verge, units of BACRU 14873 based in neo Boldovia encountered resistance from The Upper Slobbovian SDF In an heroic battle Our brave Frontier crews destroyed 3 Zhukov class LACs and a Potemkin frigate. They also destroyed a Manty merchant ship unloading war materials and the space station where it was docked.


Yeah because,(1) Manticore has almost no experience against comerce raiders and pirates. (2)(their DDs are too under armed to take on a FF CA. And (3) we have no idea where Admiral Sarnow stands in his campaign in Siesia. We know he has gotten a lot of new construction. He can probably be able to cut off a few DDs for convoy duty.

Brigade XO wrote:The commerce raiding Kingsford is talking about is sending out ships to take or destroy shipping belonging to Manticore and friends and probably will include anybody in elce they find in a system tied to Manticore or the GA. If they also destroy orbital infrastructure of a Manticore allied system that is probably on the list of options if they can get away with it.

What Kingsford proposed and what the snippets reveal are not the same. Clearly there has been some modification between Kingsfor's outline and the actual implementation.

"Operation Buccaneer" is apparently the final version of "commerce raiding." Possibly because the SLN doesn't have enough smaller ships to do traditional commerce raiding and BF has large numbers of ships perfect for trashing infrastructure and planets.

Brigade XO wrote:Give it a year and see who makes out better- with the exception of the merchant crews and various warship crews who are killed in the meantime.

"Give it year" and it will all be over except for the rogue FF squadrons turned pirate for real. There won't be a SL to give orders for atrocities to a SLN that no longer exists.

Weird Harold wrote:

Brigade XO wrote:The commerce raiding Kingsford is talking about is sending out ships to take or destroy shipping belonging to Manticore and friends and probably will include anybody in elce they find in a system tied to Manticore or the GA. If they also destroy orbital infrastructure of a Manticore allied system that is probably on the list of options if they can get away with it.

What Kingsford proposed and what the snippets reveal are not the same. Clearly there has been some modification between Kingsfor's outline and the actual implementation.

"Operation Buccaneer" is apparently the final version of "commerce raiding." Possibly because the SLN doesn't have enough smaller ships to do traditional commerce raiding and BF has large numbers of ships perfect for trashing infrastructure and planets.

Brigade XO wrote:Give it a year and see who makes out better- with the exception of the merchant crews and various warship crews who are killed in the meantime.

"Give it year" and it will all be over except for the rogue FF squadrons turned pirate for real. There won't be a SL to give orders for atrocities to a SLN that no longer exists.

The problem is that the League faces all sorts of problems with commerce raiding...the biggest one being that the GA navy can move through the whole League without much opposition.

The GA will, thanks to friends from Beowulf, also have a pretty good idea where the raiding units are based. Keep in mind that if they want to avoid piracy charges, the raiders will have to do something with prisoners. If they are mistreated or killed, those piracy rules go back into place.

Yes, the League can get a few commerce victories but the GA can simply smash orbital stations on the richest planets, pushing them to demand peace. Or that citadel defense mentioned by Alice Truman for Manticore way back when.

Commerce raiders just blow up the merchants. They are not trying to board the merchant, they are trying to get into missile range. The crew can bail out or not, either way it isn’t the raiders problem.

Long Post,

because I pulled out an rfc quote from an old thread at the end.

interspersed comments.
Regards, Rob

Brigade XO wrote:We had a snippet of a couple of SLN officers talking about takeing a force to go beat up some system- apparently neutral or at least not SL- for trading with Manticore and/or Beowulf. Thats not commerce raiding, that a punitive strike both as punishment to the locals and a object lesson and warning to everybody else.

It is an act of war against a sovereign and independent nation, without benefit of an declaration of war from the Assembly, or even a diplomatic warning. Under their own constitution, it is illegal. The FF has pulled this any number of times in the Verge, but this star is only circa 60 ly from Beowulf; it is almost guaranteed to shred any political unity between the Core and the Shell.

The Mandarins will probably spin it as a necessary act to prevent the heinous Manticoran action against the economic welfare of the League from succeeding, and as a counterblow to the actions of Manticoran merchants still using the wormhole network. Especially since the Manties now possess most of the entire network. . .

Brigade XO wrote:The commerce raideing Kingsford is talking about is sending out ships to take or destroy shipping belonging to Manticore and friends and probably will include anybody in elce they find in a system tied to Manticore or the GA. If they also destroy orbital infrastructure of a Manticore allied system that is probably on the list of options if they can get away with it.
At present, the SLN raiders might want to think really carefully about going into a system with a GA warship present and perhaps mostly destroy merchant ships outside or really close inside hyperlimits and then withdrawing (run away?) before anyting dangerous shows up.

Kingsford offered a commerce raiding strategy at one point, but that was before the Assembly witch hunt to declare Beowulf "treasonous," and before the announcement that Beowulf would have a referendum on secession. No one had ever left the League in almost a thousand years. It never occurred to the Mandarins that their politics would have real consequences.

I expect they are pushing Kingsford for a better idea than sending ships out to the Haven Quadrant, so I expect their analysts in Commerce and Treasury looked for likely trading partners--neutrals in nearby shell area systems. It is still a raid against Manti commerce; it is just avoiding the Manties.

Brigade XO wrote:Kingsford does have some advantages with the raiding scheme. While SLN does have to go where there is shipping, they don't have to go to high military traffic locations or where the GA is known (or might be known) to have forces. The GA on the other hand, is going to have to take steps to both patrol or guard aginst the raiders and that is another drain on forces.

Give it a year and see who makes out better- with the exception of the merchant crews and various warship crews who are killed in the meantime.

Prior to the peace with Haven, Manti ships were provided escorts in hazardous regions; that includes the shipping to the @85 members of their alliance, the entire region of pre-annexation Silesia, and a number of other areas. Raiders then were either Havenite or pirates. With the cessation of Havenite raiding, the establishment of security in Silesia, their ought to be a lot of escorts becoming available.

I found this interesting, in view of the snippets so far-- a smallish infodump that is not in the Pearls, but ought to be.

This is from the same thread as the earlier post I quoted above
==Re: Some comments on the economics of the series (this is from page 4 of the thread)
(I snipped quotes from Alizon and SWM who were disputing Manticore's ability to recover from Oyster Bay)

runsforcelery wrote:Are you under the impression that the Beowulf Terminus is the only terminus of any warp bridge that enters Solarian space?

I have repeatedly stated that one of the reasons the MWHJ is so important is because it gives access to the entire network of termini around the League's periphery. And that network allows access to almost every portion of the Solarian League. Which is the very reason that shutting it down to non-Manticoran shipping adds so much time to any Solarian interstellar transit times.

During the decades of war between Spain and the rebellious Netherlands, the Dutch financed much of their war effort by continuing to provide the carrying trade for Habsburg commerce (including Spain's) even during periods of active operations. Much of the Armada's artillery had been cast in Protestant --- including Dutch and English --- foundries, and the money Spain paid for those guns helped finance the English galleons which defeated it.

The situation in the HV is not completely analogous to that episode, but there are definitely similarities. The SEM now has access to/control of better than 90% of the total wormhole network, and the RMN is in position to provide security against commerce raiders in virtually all of the systems to which they connect. Do you seriously think that Solarian transtellars (or anyone else whose livelihood absolutely depends on moving his products to other star systems) are going to balk at using Manty bottoms to do the moving? If you do, then you have an imperfect understanding of just how corrupt and "go along to get along" Solarian interstellar commerce has become. I do not mean to suggest for a moment that the SL's commerce is going to be booming along at pre-war levels, nor do I mean to suggest that there won't be a great many Solarian businesses which will refuse to use Manty merchies even if it leaves them facing significant financial loss or even bankruptcy. But I will positively guarantee you that there will also be a great many of those businesses who will use those merchies to avoid bankruptcy. And there are even going to be quite a lot of system governments who will wink at the use of Manty shipping, given their lack of institutional loyalty to the Mandarins. And, in the meantime, Manticore is going to be levying special transit fees on all non-Manticoran shipping through any of the termini it now controls as an emergency wartime measure. Again, let me stress that Manticore has no objection to Solarian commerce continuing so long as it does so under Manty supervision and conditions . . . and so long as none of the fees and duties previously going to the SL's bureaucracies continue to do so. Indeed, there are huge arguments in favor of allowing that commerce to continue, so long as it doesn't contribute to the war effort against the GA, if only as a means of generating good PR for the SEM.

"See how reasonable we're being? Or trying to be, anyway, when the League lets us! Unfortunately, we can't allow the Mandarins to use these termini to prosecute the war against us, and we have every reason to deny the League the revenues it's historically generated off of the Solarian merchant marine and the service fees we're no longer allowing anyone to collect. But we don't want to put anyone out of business unless we have to, so we're taking over the astro control functions you used to pay the SL to provide, and our emergency transit fees will come to only 50% of what you used to pay OFS and the League. And as soon as this unpleasantness is concluded, we'll happily go back to allowing free transit to anyone, including Solarian-register freighters."

Manticore is going to take a hit, and it's going to be a heavy one, but the only way it could turn into the sort of debacle you're positing, would be for the GA to lose the war. A war that ran long enough could still do serious damage, even if the GA won in the end, but nothing short of outright defeat --- the kind that leaves the SL in control of the MWHJ --- could produce the sort of free fall you've described.

I snipped Brigade XO's comment, because I just quoted it too.

Weird Harold wrote:
What Kingsford proposed and what the snippets reveal are not the same. Clearly there has been some modification between Kingsfor's outline and the actual implementation.

"Operation Buccaneer" is apparently the final version of "commerce raiding." Possibly because the SLN doesn't have enough smaller ships to do traditional commerce raiding and BF has large numbers of ships perfect for trashing infrastructure and planets.

Either a difference in plans, or a broadening of the mission scope. Or maybe, given the rut in the SLN mindset, just an opportunity to use an existing plan (Case Buccaneer) which is familiar to their officers. A way to accomplish their goal of depriving Manticore of trading partners, and raising the confidence levels of their personnel?

You know, Brigade XO has me thinking, and I don't actually remember Kingsford giving out any details on his proposed commerce raiding strategy. Wasn't he supposed to put together some sort of plan and present it to Kolokoltsov once he had more time to work it out? I don't think the details were ever given in the text.

It might end up being the "final version" of the commerce raiding strategy, but only if the League folds very very fast.


Rob

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:I snipped Brigade XO's comment, because I just quoted it too.

Weird Harold wrote:
What Kingsford proposed and what the snippets reveal are not the same. Clearly there has been some modification between Kingsfor's outline and the actual implementation.

"Operation Buccaneer" is apparently the final version of "commerce raiding." Possibly because the SLN doesn't have enough smaller ships to do traditional commerce raiding and BF has large numbers of ships perfect for trashing infrastructure and planets.

Either a difference in plans, or a broadening of the mission scope. Or maybe, given the rut in the SLN mindset, just an opportunity to use an existing plan (Case Buccaneer) which is familiar to their officers. A way to accomplish their goal of depriving Manticore of trading partners, and raising the confidence levels of their personnel?

You know, Brigade XO has me thinking, and I don't actually remember Kingsford giving out any details on his proposed commerce raiding strategy. Wasn't he supposed to put together some sort of plan and present it to Kolokoltsov once he had more time to work it out? I don't think the details were ever given in the text.

It might end up being the "final version" of the commerce raiding strategy, but only if the League folds very very fast.


Rob

I remember textev during Filareta's Folly, that the SLN COs have the same autonomous latitude to execute the Admiralty's orders on-the-spot as they see fit, as does the RMN officers. It could be that the only way to carry out the commerce raiding strategies is to "improvise" in a certain way. As per limited, arrogant Solarian minds.

Although, it is a much more interesting notion that you've kicked out Bob. Case Buccaneer could have been an old tried and true canned plan that has worked for centuries, but the SLN has failed to realize that it is as outdated, defunct and useless as their ships.

And when you send ill prepared idiots with useless tools out to accomplish an impossible task, you get a disaster.

How feasible is Case Buccaneer? I never saw it as a winning strategy, simply a nuisance. It's like raiding unsuspecting police cruisers from carrying out their tasks by dropping huge boulders onto their cruisers from random overpasses. Or raiding mail carriers, or freighters. Sooner or later, you're going to pay.

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:I snipped Brigade XO's comment, because I just quoted it too.

Weird Harold wrote:
What Kingsford proposed and what the snippets reveal are not the same. Clearly there has been some modification between Kingsfor's outline and the actual implementation.

"Operation Buccaneer" is apparently the final version of "commerce raiding." Possibly because the SLN doesn't have enough smaller ships to do traditional commerce raiding and BF has large numbers of ships perfect for trashing infrastructure and planets.

Either a difference in plans, or a broadening of the mission scope. Or maybe, given the rut in the SLN mindset, just an opportunity to use an existing plan (Case Buccaneer) which is familiar to their officers. A way to accomplish their goal of depriving Manticore of trading partners, and raising the confidence levels of their personnel?

You know, Brigade XO has me thinking, and I don't actually remember Kingsford giving out any details on his proposed commerce raiding strategy. Wasn't he supposed to put together some sort of plan and present it to Kolokoltsov once he had more time to work it out? I don't think the details were ever given in the text.

It might end up being the "final version" of the commerce raiding strategy, but only if the League folds very very fast.


Rob

I remember textev during Filareta's Folly, that the SLN COs have the same autonomous latitude to execute the Admiralty's orders on-the-spot as they see fit, as does the RMN officers. It could be that the only way to carry out the commerce raiding strategies is to "improvise" in a certain way. As per limited, arrogant Solarian minds.

Although, it is a much more interesting notion that you've kicked out Bob. Case Buccaneer could have been an old tried and true canned plan that has worked for centuries, but the SLN has failed to realize that it is as outdated, defunct and useless as their ships.

And when you send ill prepared idiots with useless tools out to accomplish an impossible task, you get a disaster.

How feasible is Case Buccaneer? I never saw it as a winning strategy, simply a nuisance. It's like raiding unsuspecting police cruisers from carrying out their tasks by dropping huge boulders onto their cruisers from random overpasses. Or raiding mail carriers, or freighters. Sooner or later, you're going to pay.[/quote]

It's a losing proposition. Yes, you can damage Manticore's shipping but they can a) use convoys that are armed, b) use Q ships, c) go out an really do more commerce raiding inside the League, probably by really rich planets.

It is useful but in the long run only puts off defeat and makes any peace making far more difficult. There will be real questions about survivors, etc., and the Mandarins and minions better have some real answers.

Hi Rob,

How do we know the orders or plans for the punitive strikes came from Kingsford?

Given MAlign penetration of the SLN, very official orders could have been issued, possibly from one of the MAlign influenced mandarins via some very MAlign friendly admirals; Rajampet was hardly the only one, besides those like Filaretta down to unguided idiots like Crandall or Byng, appealing to their anti-SKM prejudices, could take or issue such orders to isolated SLN TF's or TG's as part of the MAlign's plan to gut or implode the SL.

Given the time required to properly investigate an EE versus the time before the SL disintegrates, the truth might be easily buried or smothered by other events, NTM the TG or TF might meet with 'accidents' like what was supposed to happen to the PRNIE after Torch, while a MAlign plant claims the unit 'disappeared and fled beyond the verge' etc.

Whether all the TG's ships were sabotaged with bombs as easily as Filaretta's was [evidently they wouldn't have to be that big], or just with booby-trapped software patches; AKA Shannon's NOT "Oops", or meeting some MAlign warships or 'Q' ships, or even an arranged ambush by one or more RF SDF's bent on 'revenge', there might be very few SLN survivors left to explain their side of what happened.

Getting back to shattering the SL, the shell's systems probably outnumber the core or heart systems by at least 4 or more probably 5 to 1, as besides the 98 systems of the 'old league' there might be a couple hundred more adjacent to them that have been SL members for several centuries [2-3 before OFS], who are almost as rich and within reasonable communication with Sol, though they might enjoy seeing the core systems get hammered for once.

Beyond them are the 500-600 star systems of the inner shell and the 900-1000 of the outer shell, some of whom are apparently still controlled by the transtellar(s) behind a facade of democracy, who would gladly leave the clutches of the exploiting SL/transtellar monster if there were any alternative.

Until the GA there hasn't been one, now there is and it has better weapons than the SLN, besides thousands of ships, so there could soon be ~2200+ star systems (including the verge's 600+ protectorates) begging for visits and protection, trade agreements etc, with the GA, all at the expense of the SL.

If the protectorate payments fade to zero in 3-4 monthes, though just the one-way 2+ month delivery time may negate any benefit to the SL; the mandarins won't have the money to keep the SL going, let alone pay anyone to build the ships needed to beat the GA, even if they had a clue what to build, NTM the time involved to get them built [1-2 years], worked up [3-6 monthes] and deployed [1-2 monthes] before the GA destroys them all over the next 2-4 monthes, when it takes out all SLN bases very soon after Beowulf's city is hit for the EE violation.

I suspect again, that like Filaretta's, the launching SLN ship may not survive the engagement.

Regarding what we know about Kingsford's commerce raiding strategy, according to Khumalo's talk with Terekhov back in August 1920, Sarnow had 12 times as many ship's as Khumalo, or around a quarter of what the June 1920 Fleet strength Chart indicated for the RMN, roughly 10 ships per system, or plenty for several dozen convoys then, and Silesia also had priority for the permanent LAC bases, NTM the 48 Kamerling system defense cruisers have also been dispatched, so the SLN merchant raiders are unlikely to enjoy their visit to the SEM's Silesia district.

I suspect the same will be true for the Andermani Silesia province as well, and the RoH's MM has been fairly well protected against normal type raiding [1 or 2 or only a few ships] for some time, MR [Merchant Raiding] being a predictable SLN tactic in the face of their obvious tactical inferiority, so the RHN has had month's to get ready as well.

I wouldn't be surprised, given Shannon's first hand experience with AMC's, that she hasn't modified more than a few Haven freighters for the same purpose, with lots of MDM pods and proper fire control, NTM LAC's etc.

The punitive SLN attack may also be in reaction to the first news of that failure, or other evidence of its likely failure.

We learned in MoH [page 205, HB] that Case Fabius was the 'accidental' destruction of locally owned orbital infrastructure if they didn't sell out to the proper OFS friends, which the GA should have already be sharing with the SL and verge through its own newsies, along with Case Buccaneer etc.

Being able to confirm that from the files of Filaretta's and or Crandall's captured FF ships as well as BF files, could convince lots of intended neutrals to rethink their relationship with the SL and the GA.

Regarding the suggestion that the Sol system might somehow use unknown emergency powers to fund building a new navy before Honor visits is simply impossible given the time involved; all the money in the Sol system let alone the galaxy can't change that, even assuming the stupid or ignorant Sol public "chicken little's" could be frightened into giving up everything just to preserve the current set of mandarins, which I think most will agree is very unlikely.

Following Honor's conversation with Kingsford. I expect the MAlign newsies, not just O'Hanrahan [who may be busy elsewhere], to blab headlines like: "Sol surrenders!", "Sol has sold us out!", "Sol has sold us a bill of goods!", and "Solly E&I sold citizens silly lies!"; feel free to add your own.

I also suspect that upon learning Mesa has been occupied and AD etc dead, the RF leadership may be hesitant to step out until they hear from Darius again, which even with the streak drive could take 3-4 monthes as Harahap demonstrated, thus delaying the RF's formation even further, leaving the GA the only obvious alternative to the SL for way too long for the MAlign's plan to succeed.

Foolish childish MAlign, meet real life.

From RFC's data dumps, my impression is that even the core worlds will fragment into a dozen plus odd new star nations, some of which may led by RF members, at least for a while, but loath to reintegrate.

Now realise by the next book, that all treecats, who are going to be spread across all inhabited star systems, are going to be looking for MAlign agents with their telltale secret beliefs of their genetic superiority etc, then haunting their nightmares until they are humbled and broken, then properly dealt with.

Is that a cat in the shadows, or a treecat?

The next book could be even more fun!

L

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:I snipped Brigade XO's comment, because I just quoted it too.

Weird Harold wrote:
What Kingsford proposed and what the snippets reveal are not the same. Clearly there has been some modification between Kingsfor's outline and the actual implementation.

"Operation Buccaneer" is apparently the final version of "commerce raiding." Possibly because the SLN doesn't have enough smaller ships to do traditional commerce raiding and BF has large numbers of ships perfect for trashing infrastructure and planets.

Either a difference in plans, or a broadening of the mission scope. Or maybe, given the rut in the SLN mindset, just an opportunity to use an existing plan (Case Buccaneer) which is familiar to their officers. A way to accomplish their goal of depriving Manticore of trading partners, and raising the confidence levels of their personnel?

You know, Brigade XO has me thinking, and I don't actually remember Kingsford giving out any details on his proposed commerce raiding strategy. Wasn't he supposed to put together some sort of plan and present it to Kolokoltsov once he had more time to work it out? I don't think the details were ever given in the text.

It might end up being the "final version" of the commerce raiding strategy, but only if the League folds very very fast.


Rob

Hi, Lyonheart, LONG POST WARNING

Wow, you are overcomplicating this. Or overthinking or something. KISS rules! This is like 3 different discussions.

Interspersed.

Rob

lyonheart wrote:Hi Rob,

How do we know the orders or plans for the punitive strikes came from Kingsford?

Given MAlign penetration of the SLN, very official orders could have been issued, possibly from one of the MAlign influenced mandarins via some very MAlign friendly admirals; Rajampet was hardly the only one, besides those like Filaretta down to unguided idiots like Crandall or Byng, appealing to their anti-SKM prejudices, could take or issue such orders to isolated SLN TF's or TG's as part of the MAlign's plan to gut or implode the SL.

They probably have a number of tools in the military, the beaurocracy, and business; but they don't NEED to use them. Whatever the League or its Navy does--anything it does--will stir up trouble between different factions in the League, and harden the resentment against the League in the Shell and Verge. So if I was Detweiler, I would just let it play out and look for opportunity, not plan it out in any detail.

lyonheart wrote:Given the time required to properly investigate an EE versus the time before the SL disintegrates, the truth might be easily buried or smothered by other events, NTM the TG or TF might meet with 'accidents' like what was supposed to happen to the PRNIE after Torch, while a MAlign plant claims the unit 'disappeared and fled beyond the verge' etc.

Whether all the TG's ships were sabotaged with bombs as easily as Filaretta's was [evidently they wouldn't have to be that big], or just with booby-trapped software patches; AKA Shannon's NOT "Oops", or meeting some MAlign warships or 'Q' ships, or even an arranged ambush by one or more RF SDF's bent on 'revenge', there might be very few SLN survivors left to explain their side of what happened.

So far, there hasn't been any violation of the Eridani Edict to investigate. The Luff's group needed to be eliminated because if they had survived, the fact that their "advisors" were NOT Mesan Navy might have surfaced, leading to premature discovery of the Malign. Filareta's "accident" was arranged because the Malign knew he was smart enough to surrender before they got the casualties they wanted.

Why would they complicate things and risk exposure by having people put bombs on SLN ships? The only reason they got away with that clean the first time is the crew size of the SD is too big for the command staff to even know the names of the engineering staff. Well, assuming they even cared about lower enlisted scum, anyway.

lyonheart wrote:Getting back to shattering the SL, the shell's systems probably outnumber the core or heart systems by at least 4 or more probably 5 to 1, as besides the 98 systems of the 'old league' there might be a couple hundred more adjacent to them that have been SL members for several centuries [2-3 before OFS], who are almost as rich and within reasonable communication with Sol, though they might enjoy seeing the core systems get hammered for once.

Beyond them are the 500-600 star systems of the inner shell and the 900-1000 of the outer shell, some of whom are apparently still controlled by the transtellar(s) behind a facade of democracy, who would gladly leave the clutches of the exploiting SL/transtellar monster if there were any alternative.

Until the GA there hasn't been one, now there is and it has better weapons than the SLN, besides thousands of ships, so there could soon be ~2200+ star systems (including the verge's 600+ protectorates) begging for visits and protection, trade agreements etc, with the GA, all at the expense of the SL.

There was an infodump in the Pearls, IIRC, where rfc was discussing the League. I think he said that while some of the Core Systems are as populous and nearly as wealthy as Sol or Beowulf, that most aren't; and the Shell systems not all that much different in population or prosperity from the systems in the Haven Sector or Silesia. Which is one reason for the lack of loyalty to the League--they are still being exploited by the League's Core worlds. Although that image of the League in the maps is a sphere, with specific layers, the books make it clear that Sollie territory is extremely irregular and variable.

lyonheart wrote:If the protectorate payments fade to zero in 3-4 monthes, though just the one-way 2+ month delivery time may negate any benefit to the SL; the mandarins won't have the money to keep the SL going, let alone pay anyone to build the ships needed to beat the GA, even if they had a clue what to build, NTM the time involved to get them built [1-2 years], worked up [3-6 monthes] and deployed [1-2 monthes] before the GA destroys them all over the next 2-4 monthes, when it takes out all SLN bases very soon after Beowulf's city is hit for the EE violation.

I suspect again, that like Filaretta's, the launching SLN ship may not survive the engagement.

While I understand there will be casualties at the battle of Beowulf, calling it an EE violation before rfc actually writes it seems premature.

Also, when Lacaoön started, Agata and Omosuppe (?) both warned that the effect on the economy would start shifting from mostly affecting the Federal system, to impacting the economies of member systems if the RMMM withdrawal and closure of the MWJ lasts more than a couple of quarters.

That was April; now it is around September, and now it isn't just the MWJ but the entire network locked against them.

lyonheart wrote:Regarding what we know about Kingsford's commerce raiding strategy, according to Khumalo's talk with Terekhov back in August 1920, Sarnow had 12 times as many ship's as Khumalo, or around a quarter of what the June 1920 Fleet strength Chart indicated for the RMN, roughly 10 ships per system, or plenty for several dozen convoys then, and Silesia also had priority for the permanent LAC bases, NTM the 48 Kamerling system defense cruisers have also been dispatched, so the SLN merchant raiders are unlikely to enjoy their visit to the SEM's Silesia district.

I suspect the same will be true for the Andermani Silesia province as well, and the RoH's MM has been fairly well protected against normal type raiding [1 or 2 or only a few ships] for some time, MR [Merchant Raiding] being a predictable SLN tactic in the face of their obvious tactical inferiority, so the RHN has had month's to get ready as well.

I won't say the SLN's Strategy board wouldn't consider it, but with the wormhole network down, the Navy would find it far more difficult to mount operations that far out. They have neither the logistics bases or ships to support the effort; the short logistics chain of the Solarian Navy was commented on in the text. Even if Battle Fleet never noticed --after all, they hadn't deployed to the Verge in how long?--Frontier Fleet units are not going to go for the idea of running 600 light years (or more) to a repair base.

lyonheart wrote:I wouldn't be surprised, given Shannon's first hand experience with AMC's, that she hasn't modified more than a few Haven freighters for the same purpose, with lots of MDM pods and proper fire control, NTM LAC's etc.

A solution in search of a problem. Why build Q-ships at all? ROH doesn't have Manticore's manpower problem, so build cheaper escorts or system defense units.

lyonheart wrote:The punitive SLN attack may also be in reaction to the first news of that failure, or other evidence of its likely failure.

You are predicating retaliation for something unlikely to occur. Also, too complex for the plot of a SINGLE rfc book. My guess is that it is just in response to Lacaoön I and II.

lyonheart wrote:We learned in MoH [page 205, HB] that Case Fabius was the 'accidental' destruction of locally owned orbital infrastructure if they didn't sell out to the proper OFS friends, which the GA should have already be sharing with the SL and verge through its own newsies, along with Case Buccaneer etc.

Being able to confirm that from the files of Filaretta's and or Crandall's captured FF ships as well as BF files, could convince lots of intended neutrals to rethink their relationship with the SL and the GA.

Regarding the suggestion that the Sol system might somehow use unknown emergency powers to fund building a new navy before Honor visits is simply impossible given the time involved; all the money in the Sol system let alone the galaxy can't change that, even assuming the stupid or ignorant Sol public "chicken little's" could be frightened into giving up everything just to preserve the current set of mandarins, which I think most will agree is very unlikely.

Following Honor's conversation with Kingsford. I expect the MAlign newsies, not just O'Hanrahan [who may be busy elsewhere], to blab headlines like: "Sol surrenders!", "Sol has sold us out!", "Sol has sold us a bill of goods!", and "Solly E&I sold citizens silly lies!"; feel free to add your own.

Honor's conversation with Kingsford? hasn't happened yet.
When are people going to remember all the money spent on the "Fleet 2000" upgrades? All the propaganda telling everyone (especially the Protectorates) that the SLN was the most advanced military in the galaxy? And yes, it is time for the secure data from the FF databases to be dropped on the public.

lyonheart wrote:I also suspect that upon learning Mesa has been occupied and AD etc dead, the RF leadership may be hesitant to step out until they hear from Darius again, which even with the streak drive could take 3-4 monthes as Harahap demonstrated, thus delaying the RF's formation even further, leaving the GA the only obvious alternative to the SL for way too long for the MAlign's plan to succeed.

Foolish childish MAlign, meet real life.

The original plan does not have them "stepping out" until AFTER the League melts down. Also, Harahap never went to Darius; he reported back to Mesa when his assignment (assessing possible insurgents in Verge Systems) was complete, before being re-assigned to take Rufus's old job.

lyonheart wrote:From RFC's data dumps, my impression is that even the core worlds will fragment into a dozen plus odd new star nations, some of which may led by RF members, at least for a while, but loath to reintegrate.

Now realise by the next book, that all treecats, who are going to be spread across all inhabited star systems, are going to be looking for MAlign agents with their telltale secret beliefs of their genetic superiority etc, then haunting their nightmares until they are humbled and broken, then properly dealt with.

AARGH! I know you didn't just say the tiny population of treecats is going to spawn like mosquitos and infest every occupied planet, BY THE NEXT BOOK! And, until they become mind readers, they won't know about any "secret beliefs".
Get some sleep! you're dreaming now.

Is that a cat in the shadows, or a treecat?

The next book could be even more fun!

L

SNIPPED