Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be

KNick wrote:I think I have to jump in on SWM's side of the discussion. The Yawata Strike was a covert mission, start to finish. There was no overt action taken. In fact, they went to great lengths to hide who actually did it.

The MAlign used a scaled down Oyster Bay because they could not do anything more extensive. They couldn't take any overt action even if they wanted to; Which they would not have wanted to do because that would have been accelerating the master plan more than they could support.

KNick wrote:The SDF's of the RF are, on the other hand, overt expressions of power. But, and this is a big but, they will be used to defend other systems from the covert enemy with the covert ships. To that end, I think we will see RF units destroy an automated Lenny Det or two ...

That is an extremely plausible scenario for the short to medium term. But eventually, they won't be able to control whether the target systems turn to the RF, GA, IAN, or some other as yet undeveloped power for protection.

KNick wrote:Any action by the MAlign will be as covert as possible, even though the results will be overt. For instance, shooting up a systems infrastructure from stealth.

That is certainly true for the immediate future -- at least for the two years it will take to finish the Lenny Dets. It will also take some time -- a decade or so -- before the the RF can grow and evolve into a star nation big enough to survive a more aggressive approach to universal domination.

KNick wrote:If the Malign resorts to overt force, they have not lost but they have failed. The whole idea is to make everyone realize, voluntarily, that Beowulf was wrong. If they resort to force, they have proven Beowulf right, after all.

The current phase of the MAlign's grand plan is to expand the RF with diplomacy and friendship, but the end goal is universal domination by whatever means necessary. Albrecht Detweiler's POVs make that fairly clear with his various thoughts about the number of "normals" that will die before Leonard's vision is fulfilled.

If all you are saying with the covert bit is being sneaky and not letting anyone know you are coming or who you are before you clobber them, then yes, the Yawatta strike was covert.

But my point is that it really doesn't matter. Overt or covert, it was agressive military action. And it sets the stage for more of the same. Further, it was offensive action of a particularly nasty kind, making no attempt to minimize casualties on their targets although I suspect that killing as many of the people who could help Manticore rebuild was a major goal of Oyster Bay.

Don

Once again, those on the other side of the debate choose to ignore several points that imply an open war of conquest at some point in the future by the Alignment (or rather, its Factor front).

Firstly, the Alignment is building an offensive navy at Darius. It means to take the offense to its enemies. Whether this is done covertly or overtly is besides the point. The purpose of any offensive will ultimately be to bring its enemies under its control so that it can impose its view of humanity's future on those enemies. That comes down to conquest, whether knowingly or unknowingly.

Secondly, we KNOW that the Alignment intends to reduce 'normal' humans to a second-class status or possibly even enslave them, since it has already created the social matrix for its future rule over human space on Darius. Darius was a new colony, established without the common knowledge of most Mesans. The Alignment did not have to recreate a slave-based society on Darius; it wanted to. That is strongly suggestive of exactly what kind of galactic society it intends to establish, should its plans for humanity's future succeed.

Thirdly, the greatest threats to the successful implementation of the Alignment's plans have long been the vibrant star nations of the Haven Sector, and specifically the Republic of Haven and the Star Kingdom of Manticore. For literally centuries the Alignment has been waging a covert war of attrition against those star nations, resulting in the long-lasting Havenite Wars.

Fourthly, sadly for the Alignment, Haven and Manticore not only failed to destroy each other, but as a result of the wars between them they have become stronger and more technologically advanced than any other star nation in the history of the Diaspora.

Fifthly, Haven and Manticore have discovered the existence of the Alignment and its centuries-long conspiracy, and together with a number of other advanced star nations have entered into a Grand Alliance aimed at preventing the successful implementation of the Alignment's plans. Given their military strength, advanced technology, economic muscle, control over the wormhole network, shared worldview/ethics, AND awareness of the Alignment and its plans, it will be nigh impossible for the Alignment to achieve its goal of galactic domination/rule by covert means.

As such, an open war of conquest against the Grand Alliance will become the only means of neutralising the threat the Grand Alliance presents to the Alignment's plans.

I think my logic is sound enough.

n7axw wrote:

SWM wrote:Zhakara, please excuse me for not quoting you, since I don't think it is necessary. I agree with everything you said, except that I don't think any of that is evidence that the Alignment plans overt military aggression. All of the goals that you and I both agree the Alignment has can be accomplished by covert means, and you have not presented any evidence that they plan to use overt aggression except your own belief.

Well, this really isn't direct evidence of future plans, but I would say that the Yawatta Strike certainly establishes precedent for agressive military action when the MAlign feels that it is called for.

Don

The Yawata Strike just supports my contention that they intend to use covert operations and manipulation to take over without overt military conquest. Yes, the Yawata Strike was aggressive. But it was not a war of conquest, and was not intended to defeat and occupy Manticore. It was a covert operation. That has been my point all along.

I think we have reached total impasse. Hanuman believes that the Alignment has intended all along to engage in open warfare to conquer territory. I believe they intended to conquer the galaxy through stealth, covert operations, and manipulation (though Manticore has messed up their plans and war will result).

It's clear that we aren't getting anywhere with further discussion.

SWM wrote:The Yawata Strike just supports my contention that they intend to use covert operations and manipulation to take over without overt military conquest.

You're ignoring the fact that, at the time, the MAlign was incapable of a military conquest. A Covert operation was the most that they could support at that time. It says nothing about what they might do with greater capability except to emphasize their lack of concern for the deaths of "normals."

You're mistaking "limitation" for "evidence of intent."

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:The Yawata Strike just supports my contention that they intend to use covert operations and manipulation to take over without overt military conquest.

You're ignoring the fact that, at the time, the MAlign was incapable of a military conquest. A Covert operation was the most that they could support at that time. It says nothing about what they might do with greater capability except to emphasize their lack of concern for the deaths of "normals."

You're mistaking "limitation" for "evidence of intent."

And you are ignoring the fact that it will be centuries before the MAlign has the resources to do military conquest. Or are you saying that the RF with it's 13 planets can field a larger army than the GA with it's 300+ planets? The MAlign has exactly the same problems when it comes to military action as the GA does. And we have already hashed that to death a couple of times. The MAlign has to follow exactly the same path as the GA until they are much larger. Or else, like the Haven Sector, planets will start banding together to fight them. After all, they will have the example of Manticore to follow.

And once the RF starts down the military conquest path, how many planets will start seeking closer ties with one of the GA powers? Will some of the systems that opted out of the Republic of Haven start thinking about things like mutual defense pacts, as well as closer trade ties? Will some of the Verge and Shell systems seek closer ties with the Talbott Quadrant or the Andies? Or will some planets start forming their own "RF" type polities?

The GA didn't throw a monkey wrench in the MAlign's plan, they threw a 12 foot long steel I-beam.

First, if anyone ever wants to see evidence of the law of unintended consequences this thread is it. This was not my intention. That being said (takes deep breath and dives in):
The Alignment never wanted to fight huge battles. That is why it had spent all the time money and energy on keeping Manticore and Haven fighting. They wanted them to wipe each other out so when the Renaissance Factor came they would be easy pickings, either willfully joining them, or quick conquests.
They wouldn't have had to fight the Solarian League because they were supplanting it.

My first thought was they were going to conquer the galaxy, and I feel it's true still, but they wanted to have small conquests not huge wars. They will not be equipped for a full-scale war, remember they are accelerating their plans.


IN MY OPINION: They never wanted full out war but intended to do smaller repeats of Oyster Bay to disable opponents then convince them that the Renaissance Factor is the best choice, convince them with words or weapons, whatever it takes.

KNick wrote:And you are ignoring the fact that it will be centuries before the MAlign has the resources to do military conquest. Or are you saying that the RF with it's 13 planets can field a larger army than the GA with it's 300+ planets?

What give you the idea that it is going to take "centuries" before they MAlign (including the RF) has the resources for military conquest? There are going to 1800 systems or so up for grabs when the Solarian League breaks up; We're given to believe that Mannerheim alone could probably conquer any one of them today.

The Renaissance Factor won't take more than a couple of decades to assimilate as many systems as the Star Empire of Manticore has now, while Manticore expressly wants to avoid adding any former SL members to its Empire. I doubt that the Renaissance will stay with its original eleven public members for more than a couple of months. Darius will have its fleet of Lenny Dets -- of which we have no hard count, but an estimate of two years to complete those currently under construction. Mesa is a total write-off and not a member of the RF, anyway, despite the name "Mesan Alignment."

What the MAlign is capable of today (ao the end of CoG) is not the same as what they will be capable of next month or next year or next decade. It isn't going to take them centuries to match the GA fleet in numbers or capability, no more than it took centuries for the Republic of Haven to build a fleet to challenge, and nearly defeat, Manticore.

KNick wrote:The MAlign has exactly the same problems when it comes to military action as the GA does. And we have already hashed that to death a couple of times. The MAlign has to follow exactly the same path as the GA until they are much larger. Or else, like the Haven Sector, planets will start banding together to fight them. After all, they will have the example of Manticore to follow.

No, the Renaissance Factor, aka the public face of the MAlign, doesn't face the same difficulties as the GA. They can turn "Conquistador" whenever they want after the GA smashes the SLN -- or even "help" the GA smash the SLN. As long as they can spin their conquests as "Liberation" from the SLN or some unaffiliated warlord, they are much freer to use force to "encourage" "voluntary" mergers with the RF.

KNick wrote:And once the RF starts down the military conquest path, how many planets will start seeking closer ties with one of the GA powers? Will some of the systems that opted out of the Republic of Haven start thinking about things like mutual defense pacts, as well as closer trade ties? Will some of the Verge and Shell systems seek closer ties with the Talbott Quadrant or the Andies? Or will some planets start forming their own "RF" type polities?

The GA didn't throw a monkey wrench in the MAlign's plan, they threw a 12 foot long steel I-beam.

You forgot the Andermani, Erewhon, and the Maya Sector. Maybe the newly liberated Madras Sector will get in the empire building game as well.

Even if it does take a century or more before the MAlign turns total Conquistador, my characterization of "eventually" still fits. I don't think it will take more than 20-30 years before military force will be necessary to fuel RF/MAlign expansion.

SWM, guess what? We've actually got to the point where we agree with each other...I think we should bring out the bubbly and celebrate

You're quite right. Neither of us will budge on this topic, so we'll just have to wait and see what Mr Weber has in store for us, hmm?

Anyways, it was an interesting discussion and I very much enjoyed it, but until a new ingredient gets added to the stew, I'll step aside.