The Problem with Haven

roseandheather wrote:Obviously, none of it is conclusive proof, and the truth is that no single piece of evidence convinced me. It was a gut feeling more than anything, one that got even stronger after the fall of the Committee and during the diplomatic snafus engineered by Giancola. While I suspected that Haven and Manticore would make peace as early as book six, it wasn't until book nine or ten that I really began to suspect (rather than hope) that they would ally - but as soon as it became clear that the diplomatic communications problems were engineered, and that Mesa was working against both star nations, I knew beyond a doubt that Haven and Manticore would be standing side by side eventually. Did I expect it to happen so fast? No, obviously, because until AAC Honor was slated to die and a significant time-skip would have allowed a slower transition from enemies to allies.

IIRC, i realised it was going to happen by book 4.

roseandheather wrote: But I can only thank God for Eric Flint

He may have messed things up for RFC, but i totally agree, the series is much better for his interference.

DarkEnigma wrote:Um... The parity in which Lester Tourville swatted Home Fleet like an annoying fly and came a hair's-breadth from accepting Queen Elizabeth's unconditional surrender from Manticore orbit. That parity.

That has nothing to do with parity. It´s a matter of trying to make sure that you have local superiority of forces.

In case you don´t remember, they managed that by reducing their defenses, not because they had superior forces.

And they used force multiplier tricks as well as using numerical superiority to offset their INFERIORITY.

DarkEnigma wrote:Ad hominem attacks aside

Yes well it´s a bit impossible to attack such extremely bad ideas without any overflow.

There are however no personal attacks, as i specifically phrased it to avoid that.
But i´m sure you noticed that considering that it is your native language.

DarkEnigma wrote:can anyone explain to me why Haven is worthy of Manticore's trust?

Why shouldn´t they be?

Not that that matters at all, this is a matter of realpolitik. Why do you think Pritchart and Elizabeth comment on how nothing but a total alliance would work?

And BOTH of THEM already KNOW that the other is trustworthy(AND have treecat confirmation on this), and that much/most of their wars were manufactured by the Malign.

DarkEnigma wrote:Whether under the Legislaturalists, the CPS, or the new Republic, Haven has time and time again shown by its actions a propensity for underhanded tactics.

Riiight. By that thinking i should blame you for my nations loss of colonies in what´s now USA and the West Indies...

Just as it would also prove that you are guilty of slavery because hey, your country was guilty of that in the past. Beacuse obviously, changing rulers or regimes in between doesn´t make aaanny difference at all, any more than it matters that you weren´t alive at the time...

Eh, no. That´s just crazy.

DarkEnigma wrote:Yes, Haven and Manticore need to put aside their grievances to face a mutual threat in Mesa.

Grievances mostly CAUSED by Mesa.

DarkEnigma wrote:But to just pretend that Grendelsbane or the Battle of Manticore or the assassinations or Arnold Giancola didn't happen is, IMHO, foolish of Elizabeth.

Ehm... Right, the asassination of Giancola... Yeah, mustn´t forget that.

Arnold died in what is specifically and clearly a random accident. It was part of Pritcharts problem, that she could no longer take action against him to find out if he was a Mesan agent or not.

DarkEnigma wrote:Also, as I've said before, the fall of the Legislaturalists and the CPS are still recent history and the Republic is young and fragile. Who's to say that yet another revolutionary movement won't put a pulser through Pritchart's head and take over (only now with the benefit of Manticoran national secrets and Treecats)?

And you think the Haven military would just go along with that do you? After Theisman having had several years to root out the bad folks?


And seriously, you actually think treecats will just sit down, shut up and do as they´re told and support people that killed those they were meant to guard?

Treecats are people, independent and very much sentient beings on their own.

DarkEnigma wrote:My point, however, is that, looking at it from Manticore's perspective and without benefit of that foreknowledge, Haven has yet to prove it is anything more than a hive of scum and villainy

Have you actually read the books at all?

DarkEnigma wrote:I still maintain that Pritchart's authorization of Thunderbolt and Beatrice were born of greed or pride

...

That said, I suppose Elizabeth does have a moral responsibility to be the "bigger person," despite all Haven's provocations

Tenshinai wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:Um... The parity in which Lester Tourville swatted Home Fleet like an annoying fly and came a hair's-breadth from accepting Queen Elizabeth's unconditional surrender from Manticore orbit. That parity.

That has nothing to do with parity. It´s a matter of trying to make sure that you have local superiority of forces.

In case you don´t remember, they managed that by reducing their defenses, not because they had superior forces.

And they used force multiplier tricks as well as using numerical superiority to offset their INFERIORITY.

DarkEnigma wrote:Ad hominem attacks aside

Yes well it´s a bit impossible to attack such extremely bad ideas without any overflow.

There are however no personal attacks, as i specifically phrased it to avoid that.
But i´m sure you noticed that considering that it is your native language.

DarkEnigma wrote:can anyone explain to me why Haven is worthy of Manticore's trust?

Why shouldn´t they be?

Not that that matters at all, this is a matter of realpolitik. Why do you think Pritchart and Elizabeth comment on how nothing but a total alliance would work?

And BOTH of THEM already KNOW that the other is trustworthy(AND have treecat confirmation on this), and that much/most of their wars were manufactured by the Malign.

DarkEnigma wrote:Whether under the Legislaturalists, the CPS, or the new Republic, Haven has time and time again shown by its actions a propensity for underhanded tactics.

Riiight. By that thinking i should blame you for my nations loss of colonies in what´s now USA and the West Indies...

Just as it would also prove that you are guilty of slavery because hey, your country was guilty of that in the past. Beacuse obviously, changing rulers or regimes in between doesn´t make aaanny difference at all, any more than it matters that you weren´t alive at the time...

Eh, no. That´s just crazy.

DarkEnigma wrote:Yes, Haven and Manticore need to put aside their grievances to face a mutual threat in Mesa.

Grievances mostly CAUSED by Mesa.

DarkEnigma wrote:But to just pretend that Grendelsbane or the Battle of Manticore or the assassinations or Arnold Giancola didn't happen is, IMHO, foolish of Elizabeth.

Ehm... Right, the asassination of Giancola... Yeah, mustn´t forget that.

Arnold died in what is specifically and clearly a random accident. It was part of Pritcharts problem, that she could no longer take action against him to find out if he was a Mesan agent or not.

DarkEnigma wrote:Also, as I've said before, the fall of the Legislaturalists and the CPS are still recent history and the Republic is young and fragile. Who's to say that yet another revolutionary movement won't put a pulser through Pritchart's head and take over (only now with the benefit of Manticoran national secrets and Treecats)?

And you think the Haven military would just go along with that do you? After Theisman having had several years to root out the bad folks?


And seriously, you actually think treecats will just sit down, shut up and do as they´re told and support people that killed those they were meant to guard?

Treecats are people, independent and very much sentient beings on their own.

DarkEnigma wrote:My point, however, is that, looking at it from Manticore's perspective and without benefit of that foreknowledge, Haven has yet to prove it is anything more than a hive of scum and villainy

Have you actually read the books at all?

DarkEnigma wrote:I still maintain that Pritchart's authorization of Thunderbolt and Beatrice were born of greed or pride

...

That said, I suppose Elizabeth does have a moral responsibility to be the "bigger person," despite all Haven's provocations

You. I love you.

No, not you, DarkEnigma. I'm on the verge of blocklisting you. I'm talking about Tenshinai.

Relax wrote:If Pritchart was such a goody 2 shoe, she would have gone personally to Manticore before Thunderbolt. Or sent Thiesman. She was the supplicant after all. But did not do so due to pride.

Seriuosly man. Based on the diplomatic situation, as she knew it, and COULD know it, unlike you and me, there was zero reason for her to go further. If Grosclaude had died before Thunderbolt happened and the following suspicions, THEN maybe it could have happened.

Pride? Manticore was as far as she knew saying "screw you" to Haven, and you expect her to suddenly have an epiphany that "oh yeah if someone go there in person everything will be alright!"?

Relax wrote:She could have easily made speeches delineating exactly the terms specified or drum up support for certain sticking points building a consensus and political power along with public support. She did not. Kept it hidden in some black box due to not wanting to look "weak" and a supplicant nation. Same goes for AFTER the resumption of hostilities. Once again, pride stopped her from doing so. Political fall out and fear of the unknown internal reaction is just an excuse for not doing the right thing.

Extreme rubbish man. You start by berating someone for not knowing how nations interact and then you write something like this?

And hello? If she made speeches about it? Uh yeah, what good would that do? The only way for those speeches to end up in Manticore is by travelling to the Solarian League first!

Anything she said would be delayed by months and be utterly irrelevant and useless by the time it arrives in Manticore.

roseandheather wrote:
You. I love you.

No, not you, DarkEnigma. I'm on the verge of blocklisting you. I'm talking about Tenshinai.

Tenshinai wrote:

roseandheather wrote:
You. I love you.

No, not you, DarkEnigma. I'm on the verge of blocklisting you. I'm talking about Tenshinai.

Relax, in response to your complaint about the US welfare system I can only say I'm glad I live in Aus, it sounds like the problems you have with people on welfare are unlikely to exist here (It is a legal requirement for you to look for work to receive the dole here.)

That said, given the way the system seems to have worked in the PRH it wouldn't surprise me if things were set up to trap people on the dole, after all the dolists always voted 100% for whatever the Legislaturalists wanted them to. Also remember that the Legislaturalists where editing reports to prevent the true scope of the economic rot, it was likely there where people trying to either get off the dole or supplement their incomes with paid work but where steered away from that to prevent the problems from coming to light.

Also this sentence from MtH suggests that the Dole and employment where not an either/or thing "The Dolists (so called because they were "on the dole," receiving government assistance in greater or lesser degree)" strongley suggest that even a percentage of people on the dole had some form of employment, even if only part-time. How large an percentage is unknown, but it could be very high in the outlying regions, see comments about dolist voting patterns above, from the sounds of things if you got any money from the government you appear to have been contractually obligated to vote the way they tell you

SCC wrote:Relax, in response to your complaint about the US welfare system I can only say I'm glad I live in Aus, it sounds like the problems you have with people on welfare are unlikely to exist here (It is a legal requirement for you to look for work to receive the dole here.)

That said, given the way the system seems to have worked in the PRH it wouldn't surprise me if things were set up to trap people on the dole, after all the dolists always voted 100% for whatever the Legislaturalists wanted them to. Also remember that the Legislaturalists where editing reports to prevent the true scope of the economic rot, it was likely there where people trying to either get off the dole or supplement their incomes with paid work but where steered away from that to prevent the problems from coming to light.

Also this sentence from MtH suggests that the Dole and employment where not an either/or thing "The Dolists (so called because they were "on the dole," receiving government assistance in greater or lesser degree)" strongley suggest that even a percentage of people on the dole had some form of employment, even if only part-time. How large an percentage is unknown, but it could be very high in the outlying regions, see comments about dolist voting patterns above, from the sounds of things if you got any money from the government you appear to have been contractually obligated to vote the way they tell you

Just ignore Relax. He's a particularly virulent strain of conservative which has no concept of 'social responsibility'. Any welfare system has its problems, and Haven is an excellent illustration of the consequences of those problems getting out of hand, but our welfare system is nowhere near as bad as that same virulent strain of conservative makes it out to be.

Tenshinai wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:Um... The parity in which Lester Tourville swatted Home Fleet like an annoying fly and came a hair's-breadth from accepting Queen Elizabeth's unconditional surrender from Manticore orbit. That parity.

That has nothing to do with parity. It´s a matter of trying to make sure that you have local superiority of forces.

In case you don´t remember, they managed that by reducing their defenses, not because they had superior forces.

And they used force multiplier tricks as well as using numerical superiority to offset their INFERIORITY.

You are confusing tactics and outcomes and thus missing the bigger picture entirely. Again, I realize that pound-for-pound the RHN was significantly inferior to the RMN. I also realize that, in order to overcome this, they had to use "tricks" and weight of numbers to compensate. All of that is beside the point.

The point is that at the end of the first Manticore-Havenite war, Haven was helpless before Eight Fleet and had no hope of winning. Four years later they had the ability to win (and nearly did). Whatever tactics they used to get to that point is irrelevant. I am using the word "parity" here to mean the relative chances of each side to win the war, not to compare the RHN and RMN on a platform-to-platform basis.

Tenshinai wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:Ad hominem attacks aside

Yes well it´s a bit impossible to attack such extremely bad ideas without any overflow.

There are however no personal attacks, as i specifically phrased it to avoid that.
But i´m sure you noticed that considering that it is your native language.

Calling some one a "complete moron" is an ad hominem attack. For that matter so is your implication that I do not understand my "native language."

To be clear I am not upset about this. I would have to have very thin skin indeed to get bent out of shape about what someone said about me on an internet forum. I was however trying to direct your attention to addressing my ideas vice name-calling.

Tenshinai wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:But to just pretend that Grendelsbane or the Battle of Manticore or the assassinations or Arnold Giancola didn't happen is, IMHO, foolish of Elizabeth.

Ehm... Right, the asassination of Giancola... Yeah, mustn´t forget that.

Arnold died in what is specifically and clearly a random accident. It was part of Pritcharts problem, that she could no longer take action against him to find out if he was a Mesan agent or not.

I was referring to Haven's assassinations of various members of the Royal family and other assassination attempts made through the years. Grendelsbane, the Battle of Manticore, assasinations, and Arnold Giancola (by which I meant his actions), are all items on a list of reasons for Manticore to distrust Haven. I in no way implied that Giancola was assassinated.

Tenshinai wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:Also, as I've said before, the fall of the Legislaturalists and the CPS are still recent history and the Republic is young and fragile. Who's to say that yet another revolutionary movement won't put a pulser through Pritchart's head and take over (only now with the benefit of Manticoran national secrets and Treecats)?

And you think the Haven military would just go along with that do you? After Theisman having had several years to root out the bad folks?

The RHN also served the Legislaturalists and the Committee for Public Safety. I think its a safe assumption that they would serve whatever entity replaces the new Republic. It's either that or stand idly by and watch their home destroyed by civil war.

Tenshinai wrote:And seriously, you actually think treecats will just sit down, shut up and do as they´re told and support people that killed those they were meant to guard?

Treecats are people, independent and very much sentient beings on their own.

You're right. Treecats are sentient creatures, with all the complexities that that implies. Are you suggesting that all Treecats on Haven will side with Prichart? Are you saying it's impossible they might form bonds or loyalties outside Pritchart's sphere of influence?

Tenshinai wrote: SNIP (comments disparaging my analysis of Pritchart's motives)

There has been much weeping and gnashing of teeth in this thread regarding my theory that Prichart had unseemly motivations for her decision to launch a sneak attack against Manticore, but I have yet to hear a cogent counter-argument.

Here are the facts:

1) Manticore did not represent an imminent danger to Haven at any time during the cease fire (I understand that haven was legitimately frustrated by High Ridge's intransigence, but that is a far cry from being existentially threatened).

2) Pritchart authorized Thunderbolt knowing thousands and thousands of people would die as a result.

3) Pritchart authorized Beatrice knowing the end result would be a Havenite fleet in Manticore orbit and thus the surrender of Manticoran sovereignty.

I would welcome a reasoned analysis which accounts for these facts.

DarkEnigma wrote:Here are the facts:

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA nope.

DarkEnigma wrote:1) Manticore did not represent an imminent danger to Haven at any time during the cease fire (I understand that haven was legitimately frustrated by High Ridge's intransigence, but that is a far cry from being existentially threatened).

Uh, yes, it goddamn well did. Prior to the cease-fire - which Eloise and Elizabeth both knew full well had only been called because of the idiocy of the High Ridge administration - Manticore had been a heartbeat away from forcing total surrender on Haven and controlling the orbitals of the home system - home planet - itself. For all Eloise knew, one swift change in government and Manticore would make that fatal strike against Haven. With a week's distance between them even with Trevor's Star, any notification of said change in government would probably arrive light-seconds ahead of a really pissed off Manticoran naval fleet!

DarkEnigma wrote:2) Pritchart authorized Thunderbolt knowing thousands and thousands of people would die as a result.

Of course she did - because High Ridge and Giancola had done everything in their power to make sure she would! What else was she supposed to do, with a nation who refused to talk peace, who seemingly insulted her at every turn? She wanted a peace, and the nation she wanted that peace with consistently refused to negotiate in good faith. And once again, as far as she knew, one change in government and Manticore was at Haven's orbitals. Either she could win, or she would lose, because peace did not appear possible.

DarkEnigma wrote:3) Pritchart authorized Beatrice knowing the end result would be a Havenite fleet in Manticore orbit and thus the surrender of Manticoran sovereignty.

So what? As far as she knew at the time, given the information she had - have you even read the books?? - not ordering that attack would end with a Manticoran fleet controlling Haven's orbitals. Which, again, death of everything she'd given everything she had to rebuild, death of every hope and dream she'd ever carried with her as Brigade Commander and People's Commissioner and President and Javier Giscard's lover, death of her life's cause, etc.

Something had to give, and she wanted it to be her opponent instead of her star nation. But you wouldn't understand that, would you?

DarkEnigma wrote:I would welcome a reasoned analysis which accounts for these facts.

There it is. The eternal question, of course, is if you'll be able to comprehend it, or if you'll remain so blinded by the fetish of "good vs. evil" that you'll persist in casting Haven as "the bad guys" despite them clearly having been shown to be no such thing since The Honor of the Queen.

Edit: Sorry, RFC and Goderators - I got a bit cranky here. *grumpily yanks on "Pritchart for President" cardigan and stalks off to seethe quietly*