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Opening Phase of Havenite war

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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Silverwall   » Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:34 pm

Silverwall
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Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:53 am

kzt wrote:Even if you don’t think it’s likely to work, it’s an obvious endgame move. How were they planning on countering it? Given that we know that it’s possible to deploy SLN fleets to bizarre places given bribes to the right people and Manticore has vast assets that can be used to pay bribes, and generates an astonishing amount of cash on a recurring basis is it that likely that they can’t cut a deal?

Particularly as the Peeps are simply not a threat to the SLN, so it’s risk free money.


If you go read the first few books it is made clear that taking Manticore is a nice to have not a must have in the eyes of the Legislatralist Regime. Just knocking her out allows them to gobble up all the other profitable systems in the region and sets them up for expansion into the highly profitable and chaotic Silesian area. So if Manticore is defeated and scuttles under Solly protection they can still cover costs by absorbing all the other members of the alliance. Obviously getting the Manticore junction is the preferred option but getting the rest is still a win and pushes up economic collapse for a while.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:25 pm

TFLYTSNBN

cthia wrote:
kzt wrote:Indeed. The Peep’s deliberately created a long war of attrition. Give me a way this produces a win for them.

I thought an attritional war was good strategy for the Peeps. When you outnumber your opponent in warships as they did, it was not only a sound strategy, but a safe one, as opposed to a daring and risky direct assault. What the Peeps didn't count on was the persistent headache of Manticoran tech and their feverish building rate. After all, how could Japan ever hope to out-produce the US? All of Manty tech was a "just in time deliverer from evil." There was no way the Peeps should have expected the Manties would continuously pull a rabbit out of their hat. If the Have-nots would have gone the route of a direct attack and lost, then we'd be flogging them for not using their weight advantage to whittle away at a much smaller opponent whose luck and fancy-tech-in-time modus of operandi would surely run out. Bada bing bada boom - right back to an attritional war.

From where I'm sitting, Haven didn't think there was any need to take unnecessary risks, and I concur. A direct attack against a seasoned and worthy opponent is too ambitious a project and any idiot in Havenite space proposing such a thing might be shot, especially in light of outmassing their opponent by such a large margin, which indeed suggests an attritional war. It's the same overly ambitious strategy that McArthur wanted to adopt but Halsey was more like "Are you mad, man? Slow your roll!" Hey, Haven's strategy almost worked. The RMN grew extremely desperate to the point of having to expose their best officer's undies out of desperation with Cutworm.

There probably was a window of opportunity, somewhere, but the Peeps had so many ducks they needed to lineup first that it became obscured. An all in, all or nothing attack is a very difficult roll of the dice to accept, except, out of pure desperation. The Peeps never felt that desperate until the Manties cheated and sought help from a God. Apollo.



Honor wears no undies under her skinsuit.
No undies exposed.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:29 pm

TFLYTSNBN

Silverwall wrote:
kzt wrote:Even if you don’t think it’s likely to work, it’s an obvious endgame move. How were they planning on countering it? Given that we know that it’s possible to deploy SLN fleets to bizarre places given bribes to the right people and Manticore has vast assets that can be used to pay bribes, and generates an astonishing amount of cash on a recurring basis is it that likely that they can’t cut a deal?

Particularly as the Peeps are simply not a threat to the SLN, so it’s risk free money.


If you go read the first few books it is made clear that taking Manticore is a nice to have not a must have in the eyes of the Legislatralist Regime. Just knocking her out allows them to gobble up all the other profitable systems in the region and sets them up for expansion into the highly profitable and chaotic Silesian area. So if Manticore is defeated and scuttles under Solly protection they can still cover costs by absorbing all the other members of the alliance. Obviously getting the Manticore junction is the preferred option but getting the rest is still a win and pushes up economic collapse for a while.



I just reread relevant passages in SVW.

Taking out Manticore was a nice endgame but Haven was content to peel off some of the allied systems to provide more income to fund the BLS.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by cthia   » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:49 am

cthia
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cthia wrote:
kzt wrote:Indeed. The Peep’s deliberately created a long war of attrition. Give me a way this produces a win for them.

I thought an attritional war was good strategy for the Peeps. When you outnumber your opponent in warships as they did, it was not only a sound strategy, but a safe one, as opposed to a daring and risky direct assault. What the Peeps didn't count on was the persistent headache of Manticoran tech and their feverish building rate. After all, how could Japan ever hope to out-produce the US? All of Manty tech was a "just in time deliverer from evil." There was no way the Peeps should have expected the Manties would continuously pull a rabbit out of their hat. If the Have-nots would have gone the route of a direct attack and lost, then we'd be flogging them for not using their weight advantage to whittle away at a much smaller opponent whose luck and fancy-tech-in-time modus of operandi would surely run out. Bada bing bada boom - right back to an attritional war.

From where I'm sitting, Haven didn't think there was any need to take unnecessary risks, and I concur. A direct attack against a seasoned and worthy opponent is too ambitious a project and any idiot in Havenite space proposing such a thing might be shot, especially in light of outmassing their opponent by such a large margin, which indeed suggests an attritional war. It's the same overly ambitious strategy that McArthur wanted to adopt but Halsey was more like "Are you mad, man? Slow your roll!" Hey, Haven's strategy almost worked. The RMN grew extremely desperate to the point of having to expose their best officer's undies out of desperation with Cutworm.

There probably was a window of opportunity, somewhere, but the Peeps had so many ducks they needed to lineup first that it became obscured. An all in, all or nothing attack is a very difficult roll of the dice to accept, except, out of pure desperation. The Peeps never felt that desperate until the Manties cheated and sought help from a God. Apollo.



TFLYTSNBN wrote:Honor wears no undies under her skinsuit.
No undies exposed.

Proverbial undies. Err, make that Proverbial Panties (PP) in Honor's case. Proverbial Undies (PU) in Crandall's case. LOL

What about a bra, do women wear bras under skinsuits? If I were a CO about to go into battle, I'd want all the support I can get. At any rate, it seems they'd want their breasts constrained instead of bouncing around all over the place. Especially during hand to hand combat.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Brigade XO   » Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:03 pm

Brigade XO
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Somebody get the popcorn and beer, this could be a long conversation and I'm just going to watch. :)
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:30 pm

TFLYTSNBN

cthia wrote:
cthia wrote:





I thought an attritional war was good strategy for the Peeps. When you outnumber your opponent in warships as they did, it was not only a sound strategy, but a safe one, as opposed to a daring and risky direct assault. What the Peeps didn't count on was the persistent headache of Manticoran tech and their feverish building rate. After all, how could Japan ever hope to out-produce the US? All of Manty tech was a "just in time deliverer from evil." There was no way the Peeps should have expected the Manties would continuously pull a rabbit out of their hat. If the Have-nots would have gone the route of a direct attack and lost, then we'd be flogging them for not using their weight advantage to whittle away at a much smaller opponent whose luck and fancy-tech-in-time modus of operandi would surely run out. Bada bing bada boom - right back to an attritional war.

From where I'm sitting, Haven didn't think there was any need to take unnecessary risks, and I concur. A direct attack against a seasoned and worthy opponent is too ambitious a project and any idiot in Havenite space proposing such a thing might be shot, especially in light of outmassing their opponent by such a large margin, which indeed suggests an attritional war. It's the same overly ambitious strategy that McArthur wanted to adopt but Halsey was more like "Are you mad, man? Slow your roll!" Hey, Haven's strategy almost worked. The RMN grew extremely desperate to the point of having to expose their best officer's undies out of desperation with Cutworm.

There probably was a window of opportunity, somewhere, but the Peeps had so many ducks they needed to lineup first that it became obscured. An all in, all or nothing attack is a very difficult roll of the dice to accept, except, out of pure desperation. The Peeps never felt that desperate until the Manties cheated and sought help from a God. Apollo.



TFLYTSNBN wrote:Honor wears no undies under her skinsuit.
No undies exposed.

Proverbial undies. Err, make that Proverbial Panties (PP) in Honor's case. Proverbial Undies (PU) in Crandall's case. LOL

What about a bra, do women wear bras under skinsuits? If I were a CO about to go into battle, I'd want all the support I can get. At any rate, it seems they'd want their breasts constrained instead of bouncing around all over the place. Especially during hand to hand combat.



I once observed Serena Williams miss a shot because the momentum of her inadequately restrained breasts threw her off balance.

Undamped harmonic oscillations would be a serious impediment in freefall as well as a welcome distraction.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:45 pm

TFLYTSNBN

Getting back to a more serious aspect of the thread.

Haven was very much aware of the old, wet navy adage, "only a fool fights a fort." You can not sink a fort. A fort or even worse, a single gun emplacement, is a much smaller target than a ship. A gun emplacement on land is a far more stable gun platform than a ship so guns are more like sniper rifles than shotguns. Concrete armor is much cheaper than steel armor. Gun for gun, forts are at least an order of magnitude cheaper than ships. This is why Churchill attacked the French fleet in Algeria but not Toulon. Toulon was heavily fortified. The combined firepower of shore batteries and ships made attacking Toulon insane.

Manticore had placed extremely heavy fortifications around the junction. Manticore almost certainly fortified its home planets. Haven could almost certainly have prevailed against the RMN ships in isolation and may be the RMN forts in isolation, but not against the forts and mobile units combined.

It was logical for Haven to attempt to atrit the RMN mobile units before attacking the home system.
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Theemile   » Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:47 pm

Theemile
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Posts: 5241
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Brigade XO wrote:Somebody get the popcorn and beer, this could be a long conversation and I'm just going to watch. :)


RECLINERS! We need recliners!
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by kzt   » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:03 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:It was logical for Haven to attempt to atrit the RMN mobile units before attacking the home system.


Ultimately you have to take the Manticore home system to win.

You can either attack them with complete surprise bringing your entire fleet to bear against a fraction of his mobile forces and the fixed defenses on a peacetime alert level or you can hit an alert and fully prepared defender, who has concentrated with his entire fleet - every ship and missile he has been able to build over the last few years - and has all of his fixed defenses at full wartime readiness, with the part of your fleet that was left after several years of continuous war.

Which is more likely to result in a victory for the attacker?
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Re: Opening Phase of Havenite war
Post by Silverwall   » Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:03 pm

Silverwall
Captain (Junior Grade)

Posts: 388
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:53 am

kzt wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:It was logical for Haven to attempt to atrit the RMN mobile units before attacking the home system.


Ultimately you have to take the Manticore home system to win.

You can either attack them with complete surprise bringing your entire fleet to bear against a fraction of his mobile forces and the fixed defenses on a peacetime alert level or you can hit an alert and fully prepared defender, who has concentrated with his entire fleet - every ship and missile he has been able to build over the last few years - and has all of his fixed defenses at full wartime readiness, with the part of your fleet that was left after several years of continuous war.

Which is more likely to result in a victory for the attacker?


Sorry but this reeks of the classic armchair admiral "Why don't they just..." thinking. In a real situation it is never possible to do this for logistical, training and political reasons.

I would also like to point out two real life situations where a navy tried deploying massive force beyond their effective deployment range against capable defending force. Specifically the Russians at Tsushima and the Spanish armarda. Tsushima is probably a better example as the Russian ships were technically on par with the Japanese ones but the ships were broken down after their long journey and the crews were exhausted by the voyage allowing a smaller force capably led to crush them.

It is very clear from the early books that the deployment range of fleets of capital ships before these effects kick in are low at the start of the Narrative which is the context we are talking about.
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