The Two General's Problem

penny wrote:And if the drunken and shameless wiki is correct about a projected 100 LDs, then that means the MAN can position 100 LDs right above the Queen’s head and sit. Laugh. Talk. Give someone a birthday party. Not be discovered. And not worry about being discovered. All while waiting for orders to attack!

I'm not even finding where the wiki claims 100 ships. The Lennard Detweiler-class page just say

drunken wiki wrote:With twenty-eight Shark-class training ships having been successful, a far bigger number of Leonard Detweiler-class units were planned to be built

(claiming that comes from SftS). And a check of the history shows it never claimed a specific number of LDs.

However even that vague "far bigger number" appears to be a misinterpretation of the text. Because here's what SftS actually says

Storm From The Shadows wrote:Substantially larger units with far more magazine space were on the drawing board, designs based in no small part on the experience Benjamin and his crews had acquired working with the ships currently under Topolev's and Colenso's command. Some of those larger units were already entering the first phases of construction, for that matter. And, again, Albrecht wished they'd been able to wait until those larger ships were available in greater numbers.

"in greater numbers" appears to be in reference to the "some" which were beginning construction -- not to the twenty-eight Shark class. And even if it was intended to compare LD numbers to Shark numbers there's a vast gulf between "in greater numbers" (which could be just a few more) and in "far bigger numbers"

So I'm not sure where the 100 ship number came from; but it doesn't seem to be from the obvious spot in the wiki; and in any case doesn't appear to have any textual evidence in the books.

penny wrote:I was under the impression that navies gathered way out in the boondocks in an uninhabited system so as not to be discovered. A navy can’t gather in hyper in a system’s backyard waiting to attack.

Yes it can, if it remains in hyper. See the above point about the PN in OBS. In that case, the RMN was barely defending Basilisk, but commercial traffic wasn't low.

That is not true of the MAN. The MAN can gather in an inhabited system way above their head "looking down on the underlings." Navigation won’t be a problem to frequently traveled systems like the MBS, etc. And they certainly won’t have a problem finding their way back home. They would have mapped that region themselves for decades.

In hyperspace? This goes against what we're told by the author. The Junction is probably the single most travelled cubic light-minute in the entire Galaxy, and yet both commercial and military navigators were making mistakes all the time. If it were possible to "map the region" in hyper, that wouldn't be happening. We're told that the only way to navigate in hyper is using the hyperlog, which is effectively an inertial navigation system.

There's an apparent internal contradiction here: the hyperlog is so precise that most navigation arrives within a few light-seconds of any location they desire to arrive. And yet, hyperspace meet ups seems to be impossible. My guess at explaining this is that one doesn't design military operations that require meeting up in hyper, because the chance of hyperlog imprecision sending them just too far to meet is too high, something like 1 in 20.

As for meeting in n-space, we've discussed to exhaustion. Transiting six light-months out isn't "gathering in the MBS" but instead "gathering in interstellar space." And with no nearby "landmarks," I'm not sure how well you could orient yourself in case the hyperlog was imprecise.

In any case, as you've yourself said: anyone can do this. The only thing the MAN can do differently is arrive much closer to a target system and fly in completely stealthily, though the target system may be aware they're coming.

True. And don’t forget that it can be eaten by a giant amoeba. Thus, that is why all solutions to The Two Generals’ Problem always include a second messenger. There will always be two messengers.

Sure, redundancy. But again: anyone can do this.

Gasp! First. No need to worry about any of that if the DB travels in an exclusive band. I’m surprised you’re using that as an argument since all of you are so fixated on removing even the unlikeliest things that can happen like a giant amoeba. In fact, it amuses me that all of you would think that the chances of an HV ship actually failing without removing the safety interlocks is greater than Tester intervening and slapping the DB all the way back to Darius space! And we’re talking about relatively new ships.

Yes, so long as it's an exclusive band, the chance of a random encounter is actually zero, not practically zero like for everyone else. However, I'm making the argument that the use of hyper, in any band, is close enough to "exclusive band" that there's effectively no difference. Especially if you're not taking a well-travelled route anyway, which you shouldn't be because you're going to somewhere that no one else goes to.

But you are missing the size of the advantage. It isn’t simply about the chances of a DB being intercepted while traveling in hyper’s lowest bands. Which -- as all of you have consistently pointed out -- is non-zero.

Mathematically I agree: a non-zero chance is infinitely larger than a zero one.

But for practical purposes, I am claiming that it is effectively the same.

It is about the massive fleet that can gather and throw a party and not worry about being discovered. A massive fleet that has gathered right above the enemy’s head! Do you all realize that the MAN can assemble its entire Home Fleet right above Manticore’s head? Not light years away in some uninhabited system!

Yep, and so can everyone else and have as much chance of meeting up, per the rules we've heard of in the HV. There are two issues here: one is that being "slightly away" in hyper effectively means "undetectable," so anyone can gather a fleet a light-minute outside of any target and be effectively undetected - though not zero. The other is that the ability to gather forces is chancy - for this, you have to travel in formation. That means a fleet could loiter waiting for the time to attack, but it can't be met by a DB coming from elsewhere with the orders to attack.

As often as an army catches a messenger trying to tiptoe through their camp in the dead of night. That is what this thread is about. It is a dead giveaway. No pun intended.

Bad analogy. Again: per the rules of the HV, no one is patrolling hyper and the random encounter chance is effectively nil. So unless the enemy knows to search for a DB coming and knows where to search for it, it won't find the DB.

It happened to the Havenites when they thought they were tiptoeing through Pavel Young’s camp. Only to find out the Mother of all Loose Warheads had replaced him and figured out there was a fleet waiting in hyper to attack.

In n-space, not hyper.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:I was under the impression that navies gathered way out in the boondocks in an uninhabited system so as not to be discovered. A navy can’t gather in hyper in a system’s backyard waiting to attack.

Yes it can, if it remains in hyper. See the above point about the PN in OBS. In that case, the RMN was barely defending Basilisk, but commercial traffic wasn't low.

That is not true of the MAN. The MAN can gather in an inhabited system way above their head "looking down on the underlings." Navigation won’t be a problem to frequently traveled systems like the MBS, etc. And they certainly won’t have a problem finding their way back home. They would have mapped that region themselves for decades.

In hyperspace? This goes against what we're told by the author. The Junction is probably the single most travelled cubic light-minute in the entire Galaxy, and yet both commercial and military navigators were making mistakes all the time. If it were possible to "map the region" in hyper, that wouldn't be happening. We're told that the only way to navigate in hyper is using the hyperlog, which is effectively an inertial navigation system.

There's an apparent internal contradiction here: the hyperlog is so precise that most navigation arrives within a few light-seconds of any location they desire to arrive. And yet, hyperspace meet ups seems to be impossible. My guess at explaining this is that one doesn't design military operations that require meeting up in hyper, because the chance of hyperlog imprecision sending them just too far to meet is too high, something like 1 in 20.

As for meeting in n-space, we've discussed to exhaustion. Transiting six light-months out isn't "gathering in the MBS" but instead "gathering in interstellar space." And with no nearby "landmarks," I'm not sure how well you could orient yourself in case the hyperlog was imprecise.

In any case, as you've yourself said: anyone can do this. The only thing the MAN can do differently is arrive much closer to a target system and fly in completely stealthily, though the target system may be aware they're coming.

True. And don’t forget that it can be eaten by a giant amoeba. Thus, that is why all solutions to The Two Generals’ Problem always include a second messenger. There will always be two messengers.

Sure, redundancy. But again: anyone can do this.

Gasp! First. No need to worry about any of that if the DB travels in an exclusive band. I’m surprised you’re using that as an argument since all of you are so fixated on removing even the unlikeliest things that can happen like a giant amoeba. In fact, it amuses me that all of you would think that the chances of an HV ship actually failing without removing the safety interlocks is greater than Tester intervening and slapping the DB all the way back to Darius space! And we’re talking about relatively new ships.

Yes, so long as it's an exclusive band, the chance of a random encounter is actually zero, not practically zero like for everyone else. However, I'm making the argument that the use of hyper, in any band, is close enough to "exclusive band" that there's effectively no difference. Especially if you're not taking a well-travelled route anyway, which you shouldn't be because you're going to somewhere that no one else goes to.

But you are missing the size of the advantage. It isn’t simply about the chances of a DB being intercepted while traveling in hyper’s lowest bands. Which -- as all of you have consistently pointed out -- is non-zero.

Mathematically I agree: a non-zero chance is infinitely larger than a zero one.

But for practical purposes, I am claiming that it is effectively the same.

It is about the massive fleet that can gather and throw a party and not worry about being discovered. A massive fleet that has gathered right above the enemy’s head! Do you all realize that the MAN can assemble its entire Home Fleet right above Manticore’s head? Not light years away in some uninhabited system!

Yep, and so can everyone else and have as much chance of meeting up, per the rules we've heard of in the HV. There are two issues here: one is that being "slightly away" in hyper effectively means "undetectable," so anyone can gather a fleet a light-minute outside of any target and be effectively undetected - though not zero. The other is that the ability to gather forces is chancy - for this, you have to travel in formation. That means a fleet could loiter waiting for the time to attack, but it can't be met by a DB coming from elsewhere with the orders to attack.

As often as an army catches a messenger trying to tiptoe through their camp in the dead of night. That is what this thread is about. It is a dead giveaway. No pun intended.

Bad analogy. Again: per the rules of the HV, no one is patrolling hyper and the random encounter chance is effectively nil. So unless the enemy knows to search for a DB coming and knows where to search for it, it won't find the DB.

It happened to the Havenites when they thought they were tiptoeing through Pavel Young’s camp. Only to find out the Mother of all Loose Warheads had replaced him and figured out there was a fleet waiting in hyper to attack.

In n-space, not hyper.

I havn't seen it stated, but I believe loitering in hyper also causes hyperlog issues - any little energy use causes unaccounted for discrepancies in hyper which build up over time, so usually a waiting fleet does so nearby in normal space, not hyper, so it has an exact position.

And remember, if the log is off and you try to exit hyper too close to a gravity well, it will be fatal.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In hyperspace? This goes against what we're told by the author. The Junction is probably the single most travelled cubic light-minute in the entire Galaxy, and yet both commercial and military navigators were making mistakes all the time. If it were possible to "map the region" in hyper, that wouldn't be happening. We're told that the only way to navigate in hyper is using the hyperlog, which is effectively an inertial navigation system.

There's an apparent internal contradiction here: the hyperlog is so precise that most navigation arrives within a few light-seconds of any location they desire to arrive. And yet, hyperspace meet ups seems to be impossible. My guess at explaining this is that one doesn't design military operations that require meeting up in hyper, because the chance of hyperlog imprecision sending them just too far to meet is too high, something like 1 in 20.

As for meeting in n-space, we've discussed to exhaustion. Transiting six light-months out isn't "gathering in the MBS" but instead "gathering in interstellar space." And with no nearby "landmarks," I'm not sure how well you could orient yourself in case the hyperlog was imprecise.

Taking these in reverse order - for the MBS, specifically because it's a binary star system, you probably could ID both stars from 6 lightmonths out and their relative positions (compared to their recalculated ones) probably lets you orient yourself well enough; since even the worst miss on hyperspace exit isn't going to put you a LY out of position on the other side of the system. Also, I'm not actually sure that emerging another 5 light-months beyond where the Sharks super sneaky entrance was detected is actually far enough out to avoid detection from Manticore's massive system grav arrays.

As for the navigation - yeah that does seem a little odd. It's true that sensor range is sharply curtailed in hyper compared to normal space. So you need to hit the rendezvous closer to see the other fleet. But you'd think that the distance compression in hyper would mostly or entirely offset that -- especially if the rendezvous was set in the higher bands where the compression ratio is higher. (Meaning if your nav error was a horrendous light-hour in normal space, well the Theta band compression ratio is 3000x so you'd presumably only started with a nav error of 1.2 light-seconds up there that got magnified as you dropped through the intervening bands and out into normal space.
(But this is just another of the unresolved things about how hyper works)

OTOH I do agree with the preceeding post that hyper log errors should continue to accumulate the longer you're in hyper; so waiting around should make your position error larger and larger. (Both because the inertial navigation error in inherently cumulative; but also specifically without any outside reference point if you didn't manage to come to a full stop relative to the target system you'd slowly be driving without any acceleration and inertial reference units integrate position based on all the accelerations. So if it things you've stopped but you actually have a half kilometer/hour drift you don't have to wait around all that long before you're badly wrong about your location)

In any case we've never seen ships make a long range rendezvous in hyper; just the very short distance ones necessary to spring the Paul Revere style traps. (Traps which, themselves, don't appear to be set up very far in advance -- so the waiting fleet seems to have minimal waiting time)