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"downrange countermissiles"

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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Relax   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:43 pm

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Kytheros wrote:
kzt wrote:It's not very hard for an intelligent opponent to avoid a forward deployed LAC

That applies to pretty much any platform deployed particularly far forwards. If their stealth is good enough,


:roll: Why are you assuming no one has RD's? :roll:

Lets see. Andies have em. FTL even. :o
Lets see; RHN has them and in the biggest battle ... BOMA1, no one even bothered with Stealth...

Hrmm lets understand why... Maybe because with several hundred RD's out there, stealth is pointless?

No one is going to "forward deploy" LAC's except against blind opponents. As anyone with an RD will simply tell their missiles to fly around the dumb lame brain tactic of "forward deployed" LAC's. Unless you mean ~1-3Mkm at most as "forward deployed". Then the LAC's only become MOSTLY useless as the missile will fly on the outter edge of their engagement window making said LAC's only half useless...

"Forward Deployed LAC's" are a really dumb idea. When RFC threw it out there in MoH, I highly doubt he had run the numbers for how easy it would be for missiles to run around them. Unless he envisions missiles inability to maneuver in any meaningful manner in the Honorverse. There is evidence of that in AAC prelude... Frankly it is absurd from a technical point, but... :twisted:
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Kytheros   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 11:06 am

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kzt wrote:It's not very hard for an intelligent opponent to avoid a forward deployed LAC

Kytheros wrote:That applies to pretty much any platform deployed particularly far forwards. If their stealth is good enough,

Relax wrote:
:roll: Why are you assuming no one has RD's? :roll:

Lets see. Andies have em. FTL even. :o
Lets see; RHN has them and in the biggest battle ... BOMA1, no one even bothered with Stealth...

Hrmm lets understand why... Maybe because with several hundred RD's out there, stealth is pointless?

No one is going to "forward deploy" LAC's except against blind opponents. As anyone with an RD will simply tell their missiles to fly around the dumb lame brain tactic of "forward deployed" LAC's. Unless you mean ~1-3Mkm at most as "forward deployed". Then the LAC's only become MOSTLY useless as the missile will fly on the outter edge of their engagement window making said LAC's only half useless...

"Forward Deployed LAC's" are a really dumb idea. When RFC threw it out there in MoH, I highly doubt he had run the numbers for how easy it would be for missiles to run around them. Unless he envisions missiles inability to maneuver in any meaningful manner in the Honorverse. There is evidence of that in AAC prelude... Frankly it is absurd from a technical point, but... :twisted:

Sure, people have RDs ... but when there's a battlefleet that you know where it is, most people aren't going to look very hard at a spot halfway between the enemy battlefleet and yours. Some other direction, sure. Up close to the enemy, sure. In the middle of where the missile storm is going to be crossing? That's probably a lower priority. Sure, RDs make stealth a lot harder ... but only where they are, and while RDs will likely cross the area on their path to the hostile fleet, if they're not already distributed, they're still likely to be more focused on the fleet ahead. As for the BoM-1, stealth was pointless, the only "finesse" used was in the mousetrapping maneuver - everything else was just a slugging match, because Haven had a massive hammer and used it while Manticore didn't have a choice.
At any rate, RDs are not capable of automatically detecting something in stealth. They can certainly make it easier to spot someone trying to hide, if they're good enough. However, the relevant conditional phrase of my statement was "if your stealth is good enough" - if your stealth isn't good enough, then, no, you're not going to have surprise, and will either be ignored, bypassed, or actively targeted. It is possible to hide, even from a warship with RDs out, especially if they're not looking in the right direction, but it is not easy.



As far as forward deploying LACs ... I think that missiles normally straight-line(ish, probably more of a slight curve, really) it until shortly before they approach countermissile range. Any lateral acceleration in the "boost phase" just makes the missile take longer to get to the target, and leaves it at a lower approach velocity, leaving the enemy more time to maneuver and take countermeasures. Plus, missiles don't exactly have the best sensors, so anything that makes it easier on the missile to track its target that doesn't hurt its ability to reach the target is worthwhile.
Now, those kinds of concerns may well be less important now with MDMs and the massive ranges and runtimes they have, but back in the days of single drive missiles? They were huge. Straightlining could well be a legacy artifact of that.
Of course, there's still one fundamental concern that's just as valid, if not more so nowadays - total time to target goes up the less direct the course taken, leaving the enemy more time to shoot at you, and if they're straight-lining their missiles, their missiles are going to hit you first and hit you more often than your missiles will hit them ... which I rather suspect is generally considered a bad thing by pretty much everyone.
Thus missiles straightlined it through primary boost phase all the way up to starting their approach and terminal maneuvering since the early days, and there's still reason to continue to do so, as you generally want your missiles to arrive on target as quickly as possible.
There, as yet, has not been cause to send missiles on anything other than the most direct course to the enemy. Far-forward LACs would work some ... but closer forward, probably on the order of 20-30 light seconds at the most, would probably actually work better - redirecting a missile storm around an advance screen of LACs would keep the LACs from firing on the missiles ... at the cost of increased risk of the missiles running into each other and/or loosing track of which signals are their targets and which are decoys. The question then becomes, do you want to run your missile storm through a LAC screen and know you'll take a fairly set and predictable percentage, or risk loosing an indeterminate number while simultaneously risking the loss of target locks? How confident are you in your missiles? With way forward high-bandwith FTL-feed recon drones and Apollo and Keyhole 2, sure, it doesn't matter, but anything lesser? It'd be a serious gamble.
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Relax   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:37 pm

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So, your argument is that both the RMN/RHN were too stupid to use stealth at BOMA...

:shock: :shock: :oops:

You also believe that sensors/computers have "focus problems"...
:lol: :lol: :lol:

:roll:

You also somehow believe a LAC has thousands of G's of acceleration. As somehow a LAC can magically maneuver in the time an MDM has flight time (9min) to maneuver laterally millions of kilometers to intercept..... Have you even bothered to do basic math for how long is required for a LAC to move even 1Million kilometers? Of course you haven't. If you had, you wouldn't be making such absurd statements.

And NO, I did not bother reading anything you wrote after paragraphs 1 and 2.
Last edited by Relax on Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by kzt   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:43 pm

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Relax wrote:You also believe that sensors/computers have "focus problems"...
:lol: :lol: :lol:

:roll:

You know how you come home in the middle of the night and find your PC playing solitaire?
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:26 pm

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Kytheros wrote:As far as forward deploying LACs ... I think that missiles normally straight-line(ish, probably more of a slight curve, really) it until shortly before they approach countermissile range. Any lateral acceleration in the "boost phase" just makes the missile take longer to get to the target, and leaves it at a lower approach velocity, leaving the enemy more time to maneuver and take countermeasures.
Assuming you have enough endurance to boost the entire time I don't think the longer path from spreading out in the mid-flight phase would result in lower terminal velocities.

Yes, some of the velocity is "wasted" by building and then counteracting your detour vectors. But you also have more time to build your forward velocity.

I tried a quick back of the envelope calc for MDMs on straight line 40 million km run vs angling out and back 20 degree.
Straight Line:
417 seconds; 191,820 km/s terminal velocity
Angled Run:
430 seconds; 197,800 km/s terminal velocity; total run length 42.4 million km.
Oh, at even a 20 degree deviation you're almost 7.3 million km off the baseline course at the midpoint; twice as far as even a new extended range CM can reach.

You do get more tracking time; an extra 13 seconds. But you also have to deal with a 3% higher terminal velocity.


I'm pretty sure that only once you exceed a 45 degree diversion from course that your terminal velocity starts dropping below the baseline value.
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Kytheros   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:01 pm

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Relax wrote:So, your argument is that both the RMN/RHN were too stupid to use stealth at BOMA...

:shock: :shock: :oops:

No. Haven didn't need to try to get fancy - they had massively overwhelming force, getting fancy would just dilute it, Manticore didn't have an opportunity where they could get fancy.

You also believe that sensors/computers have "focus problems"...
:lol: :lol: :lol:

It's been fairly clear that even if something is technically detectable by the hardware, the software has to be looking for it, and, more importantly the human techs need to have the systems looking in the right direction for the right thing, and they also need to be paying attention to the right places at the right times.
I'm assuming that you're talking about my comment that RDs aren't an automatic detect everything device, because you say you didn't read the rest of my post.
If I'm mistaken, and this is in reference to missile onboard tracking limitations ... that's something that's been quite explicit in the text as well.

As for general sensors vs stealth, in the lead up to Oyster Bay, we saw a stealthed MAlign ship lurking in Yeltsin that was very close to a GSN ship with RDs out. Admittedly, that's a non-standard situation, but it does help demonstrate that stealth even with hostile RDs out is possible.
Earlier in the series ... in In Enemy Hands, the Prince Adrian got caught because they didn't see the Peep ship that was lying doggo in front of them - because they were focused on the ship(s) they already knew about and were pursuing them, not looking elsewhere.



:roll:

You also somehow believe a LAC has thousands of G's of acceleration. As somehow a LAC can magically maneuver in the time an MDM has flight time (9min) to maneuver laterally millions of kilometers to intercept..... Have you even bothered to do basic math for how long is required for a LAC to move even 1Million kilometers? Of course you haven't. If you had, you wouldn't be making such absurd statements.

Hardly ... the LACs would have to be sent out well in advance of heading towards effective range, and probably wouldn't bother going that far, ignoring the time contraint, and aim for closer, but still noticeably forwards ... and they'd have to be spread out, probably wider separations than normal, but they'd be spread out anyways. I'm not saying it'd necessarily work very well or for very long, just that it's technically doable, given the apparent missile combat paradigm. They also wouldn't be out there to try to stop the missile storm, just trim it down some and disrupt it if they could - if Apollo or some sort of analogue is in use, they'd be looking for the control missiles to prioritize.
And, in the podnought missile storm era, thus far, you generally want to give the other side the opportunity to concentrate their forces, because the difference between two or three smaller groups and one bigger group is a whole lot smaller - in fact, with the current missile storm combats, you want the enemy all in one place so that you don't run the risk of overkilling the first group and running out of ammo for a later group.
Think back to ... Second Yeltsin? If all the Peep battleships had come in together, it wouldn't have made much difference in the outcome. But since they separated into two groups, Theisman's smaller group could have taken on Honor's SDs that had gotten battered by Thurston's group. That's the same sort of problem, only exacerbated, with podnoughts.

And NO, I did not bother reading anything you wrote after paragraphs 1 and 2.

The second half was an entirely different, although arguably related, subject - concerning your statements about missile courses.


Jonathan_S wrote:
Kytheros wrote:As far as forward deploying LACs ... I think that missiles normally straight-line(ish, probably more of a slight curve, really) it until shortly before they approach countermissile range. Any lateral acceleration in the "boost phase" just makes the missile take longer to get to the target, and leaves it at a lower approach velocity, leaving the enemy more time to maneuver and take countermeasures.
Assuming you have enough endurance to boost the entire time I don't think the longer path from spreading out in the mid-flight phase would result in lower terminal velocities.

Yes, some of the velocity is "wasted" by building and then counteracting your detour vectors. But you also have more time to build your forward velocity.

I tried a quick back of the envelope calc for MDMs on straight line 40 million km run vs angling out and back 20 degree.
Straight Line:
417 seconds; 191,820 km/s terminal velocity
Angled Run:
430 seconds; 197,800 km/s terminal velocity; total run length 42.4 million km.
Oh, at even a 20 degree deviation you're almost 7.3 million km off the baseline course at the midpoint; twice as far as even a new extended range CM can reach.

You do get more tracking time; an extra 13 seconds. But you also have to deal with a 3% higher terminal velocity.


I'm pretty sure that only once you exceed a 45 degree diversion from course that your terminal velocity starts dropping below the baseline value.

Like I said, a very far forward deployment would really only work on the initial salvos of an enemy that wasn't prepared for it. That'd get you a few battles at most.
Then you'd have to reduce how far out you deploy in order to still catch missiles.

An extra 13 seconds of runtime on an MDM doesn't matter to the MDM itself, sure. But that's 2/3rds of a tube-launched DDM/MDM cycle time, or slightly more than a pod-deployment cycle.
If the other guy is sending his missiles in as straight as possible, then his are going to hit you first, and his followup salvos will hit you faster as well.
In terms of missile hardware, straightlining may well be a legacy artifact from older, less capable single drive missiles, but there's still reason to do it, and currently not much reason not to.
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Brigade XO   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:16 pm

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If you are going to use the LACs in anti-missile defense, you are going to need them roughly between your force(s) and the enemy forces relative to the the path of incomming enemy missiles. Not directly between or they are going to get too much attention from said enemy missiles which lose locks on the primary target(s) and start looking for somthing to kill.

You need the LACs in positions where they are going to be able to manuver to be in effective anti-missile range.

If your the enemy seeks to avoid the LACs -with the missile volleys- he MIGHT want to send a number of weapons "around" the engagement range of the anti-missle LACs but that has a whole bunch of problems. It intially presumes your weapons- probably DDM's have enough range to make the trip even if you rely on a ballistic component and then have enough time on the engines to reach attack range. Which means that you have to compute all that and fire your birds and hope things don't change too much such that your birds don't get into attack range.

There is also the question of spreading out your weapons to in a matter of partial englobement (or just one side quadrant) other than least time path to your targets. You are spreading your weapons out. That may take them safely past a LAC screen but at what cost. You lose the volume density of launch(s) and you put some, perhpaps major, number of them where they can be engaged by the CM weapons of other ships in the force you are attacking. Ships that othewise can't engage either with ship-killers or anti-missile missiles because of fratracide while firing THROUGH the formations of the more forward starhips of their own force.

Comes back around the the various flanking movements we have seen RMN, Haven and other pull bringing in forces to make their opponents engage or be forced to engage/or attempt to avoid engagement on multiple threat axis. Flank movements are great when they work. Flank movements are great (though not so good on your force making the flanking movement) when they are needed to distract the opponent who is going to crush your main force if they can't be delayed or diverted.

You want your anti-missile LACS far enough forward to degrade the incomming missle strikes to the level your primary force can handle them with on-board CM weaponry but not so far that the LACs can't manuver to maintain the position to do that.
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Relax   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:48 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:SNIP

There is also the question of spreading out your weapons to in a matter of partial englobement (or just one side quadrant) other than least time path to your targets. You are spreading your weapons out. That may take them safely past a LAC screen but at what cost. You lose the volume density of launch(s) and you put some, perhpaps major, number of them where they can be engaged by the CM weapons of other ships in the force you are attacking. Ships that othewise can't engage either with ship-killers or anti-missile missiles because of fratracide while firing THROUGH the formations of the more forward starhips of their own force..


Good Grief. Lets look at this "volume" in which CM's will get in each others way...

If you have 100 SD's in a 10x10 box. Its entire dimensions are a whopping 300km ~ 300km spacing, or 300km x 11 = ~3000km on a side. A CM missile's envelope is what again? 3+MILLION km. Lets see, a Factor of 1000 cubed, or squared if you want to go super simplistic about it. Either a Million or a Billion times less likely to "collide" than when they launch.

So, NO, even if every single MDM attacking said ships were all in only a small portion of said quadrant attacking those ships, not a single CM will run into any other CM. Why? The missiles have to come TO the ships. They do not have the option of flying "around" the ships.
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by darrell   » Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:37 am

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a ship wedge is 300 by 300, but warships in flight are not right next to each other, there has to be some seperation.

if they had only 10KM seperation, a ship had it's impeller hit and lost some acceleration, boom 2 ships weges collide, 2 ships no longer exist. Same is true if the ships are even a fraction of a second slow in executing a turn, 2 or more ships destroyed if they are too close. If it was me, I would have 700 KM between ships, and offset 350KM. That way if a ship lost acceleration there is plenty of time for it to get out of the way.

If a CM wedge is 10Km, and there is 20KM seperation between CM's, you could fit 225 in a box that is 300 KM on a side, 1225 CM's in a box 700KM on a side.

If you fire 100 CM's, they would have a 30KM separation in a 300KM box, 70 KM separation in a 700 KM box.
Relax wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:SNIP

There is also the question of spreading out your weapons to in a matter of partial englobement (or just one side quadrant) other than least time path to your targets. You are spreading your weapons out. That may take them safely past a LAC screen but at what cost. You lose the volume density of launch(s) and you put some, perhpaps major, number of them where they can be engaged by the CM weapons of other ships in the force you are attacking. Ships that othewise can't engage either with ship-killers or anti-missile missiles because of fratracide while firing THROUGH the formations of the more forward starhips of their own force..


Good Grief. Lets look at this "volume" in which CM's will get in each others way...

If you have 100 SD's in a 10x10 box. Its entire dimensions are a whopping 300km ~ 300km spacing, or 300km x 11 = ~3000km on a side. A CM missile's envelope is what again? 3+MILLION km. Lets see, a Factor of 1000 cubed, or squared if you want to go super simplistic about it. Either a Million or a Billion times less likely to "collide" than when they launch.

So, NO, even if every single MDM attacking said ships were all in only a small portion of said quadrant attacking those ships, not a single CM will run into any other CM. Why? The missiles have to come TO the ships. They do not have the option of flying "around" the ships.
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Re: "downrange countermissiles"
Post by Relax   » Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:47 am

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Ah, math boo boo. For some reason I typed 10x10 and then translated in my head 6x6 which is why I typed 11...

300km ship, 300km space 300km ship... etc. In either case

Instead of 3000km it is ~6000km. Oh boo hoo volumetrically it is "only" 500,000,000 times larger. Instead of 1,000,000,000...
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