Hi FallsFromTrees,
Nice analysis and I concur, but here's a couple other points to keep in mind.
Given the far better data Honor had, I expected her to launch FEWER missiles per target because she was trying to conserve them, and since the Spindle post battle analysis indicated only 100-125 were needed to kill BF SD's, I expect HA-H to use only 200 each as her maximum [60% overkill] so only 85,400 total, which because of the short range could have been full power shots and not Apollo's to boot.
Thus the BF SD's had almost 3 minutes to surrender, and some did sooner than others.
So after the pod launch and the 13 second delay launching the broadside salvo, the BF TF CO's have a moment to realise they will be obliterated in the face of the GA's 85.4[+] K missile volley [possibly all from HA-H's ~40 SD's] if they didn't surrender, but the time for some to convince some CO's takes longer than others NTM their forward position reduced the amount of time needed to declare they were surrendering since dropping your wedge [in token of surrender] when missiles are flying is counter-indicated
Thus until you received an acknowledgement you were surrendering and the incoming volley would be immediately destroyed as soon as your wedges dropped, they stayed up; and sorting out who was or wanted to surrender and where got sorted out, the missiles kept coming, all the while the clock is counting down.
Just as at Saltash with Dubroskaya, time ran out for some earlier than others, so the missile salvo's aimed at the last 60 could be entirely aborted before they got in range, while some could be aborted in the case of the 71 damaged, while still too late for the 296 that were closer.
L
fallsfromtrees wrote:SWM wrote:*quote="Hutch"*
Still, ten seconds is a relatively short time (the time that was mentioned in the after-action discussion between the SLN pods firing and the rest of the ships opening fire) to take command and provide fleet orders to open fire.
It may have been more of a personal choice by the various Admirals commanding the sub-forces under Filareta. Remember, at least 60 SLN SD's came through without damage at all (per textev from ART). Given the level of fire Honor and Lester would have launched, I've always found that improbable....unless those ships had NOT LAUNCHED under command of whatever admiral was in charge of that portion of the fleet and had dropped their wedges and surrended once the GA riposte showed exactly 0% of survival.
Might have been cowardice or strong-minded practicality, but it's the only way I could see those 60 ships surviving without a scratch.
IMHO as always, YMMV.*quote*
They didn't have to take command and give orders to fire. The orders had already been made--by the commander of the fleet. Once those orders went out, the ships simply followed those orders.
As for how 60 ships managed to survive without damage, that is probably simply a matter of probabilities. Not every ship was targeted equally, and the defenses did not counter all missiles equally. Each defending ship was not trying to target only the missiles aimed at that ship. No, the ships coordinated their counter-fire. It is purely a matter of chance which ship a destroyed missile had been assigned to. So, by chance, all the missiles assigned to Ship A might be taken out by point defense while none of the missiles assigned to its neighbor Ship B are taken out. The undamaged ships could simply be the lucky ships whose assigned missiles were all taken out by the coordinated defensive fire.
The probabilities don't seem to work out. Of the 427 SDs that Filareta brought with him, 296 were destroyed outright (69.3%), 71 damaged but repairable (16.6%) and 60 untouched (14.1%). At the battle of Spindle, which is the only one for which we have SD defense numbers, there were 9200 missiles fired at 23 SDs, and the entire task force would have been defending. Of those 9200 missiles, 1007 (11% were stopped), and all 23 were effectively destroyed. At the BoM II, Honor has available over 25 million missiles, she would have used at least as many per ship as were used at Spindle (for a total of 170,800 missiles for Filareta's fleet), and since she had much better information on the capabilities of Halo, an even higher percentage of her missiles would get through, so of the 170,800, at least 152,000 missiles attack the SLN fleet. I submit that there is not a chance in hell that any of the SLN ships would have survived unscathed in that maelstrom unless they were deliberately spared.
