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Long term consequences of the League's collapse

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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Weird Harold   » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:26 pm

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n7axw wrote:The comparison with Switzerland breaks down fairly quickly I think. For one thing Switzerland's neutrality is rooted in being small and relatively helpless amid larger, more powerful neighbors. Then it became traditional that Switzerland's neutrality was not to be tampered with. The Star Empire, on the other hand, had and probably soon will have again, one of the most efficient industrial complexes in the galaxy, the most capable navy and sits on top of the most valuable junction in human space.


Switzerland was only one of several independent neutrals in Europe that remain sovereign and neutral because they were mostly small, helpless, and out of the way.

Switzerland was an exception to the "Helpless" clause and the "out of the way" clause. Switzerland was a natural fortress and with stood several military assaults throughout its history and even today has a reputation as a tough military target.

As for "out of the way," Switzerland couldn't be less out of the way. It sits astride the direct route from almost anywhere in Europe to almost anywhere else; it is nearly centered on the European continent.

But the primary similarity to Switzerland is the banking and mediation roles; Manticore already holds a commanding presence in both areas and can only become more prominent in those roles when the League's economy tanks and former members look elsewhere for trustworthy admiralty courts.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:12 am

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Weird Harold wrote:
n7axw wrote:The comparison with Switzerland breaks down fairly quickly I think. For one thing Switzerland's neutrality is rooted in being small and relatively helpless amid larger, more powerful neighbors. Then it became traditional that Switzerland's neutrality was not to be tampered with. The Star Empire, on the other hand, had and probably soon will have again, one of the most efficient industrial complexes in the galaxy, the most capable navy and sits on top of the most valuable junction in human space.


Switzerland was only one of several independent neutrals in Europe that remain sovereign and neutral because they were mostly small, helpless, and out of the way.

Switzerland was an exception to the "Helpless" clause and the "out of the way" clause. Switzerland was a natural fortress and with stood several military assaults throughout its history and even today has a reputation as a tough military target.

As for "out of the way," Switzerland couldn't be less out of the way. It sits astride the direct route from almost anywhere in Europe to almost anywhere else; it is nearly centered on the European continent.

But the primary similarity to Switzerland is the banking and mediation roles; Manticore already holds a commanding presence in both areas and can only become more prominent in those roles when the League's economy tanks and former members look elsewhere for trustworthy admiralty courts.


Your comment about Switzerland's toughness as a military target is well taken. Yet it does reinforce my point. Why pay the price to conquer Switzerland when there would be so little return? As for trading routes, it's much easier to go around than through. Besides, although what you said about Switzerland as a military target is true, the Swiss have never been able to project military power beyond their borders.

I really don't disagree with banking and mediation bit. What I am saying is that like it or not, Manticore is a now a major player on the galactic stage. Along with all the other things I mentioned, she has the galaxy's largest merchant marine fleet. Given the reach of that fleet and the inevitable commercial interests that will result from those trading partnerships she is offering to ex League systems, there is no way she is going to be able sit home and tend to her own knitting. Where her commercial interests need protecting, there the RMN will also be. In short it is inevitable that Manticore will be in this thing up to her neck.

The irony of it is that the current trajectory was launched under High Ridge, New Kiev, and Janacek, for whom the whole notion of any expansion was anathama. From their point of view, Murphy must have a nasty sense of humor!

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Commodore Oakius   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 8:55 am

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I think Maticore is more like a mix of the Dutch and English of the late 16th though the mid 18th century. The Dutch had a massive Merchant Marine, Dutch East India Company, but never a military that they could project. England had less trading, until later in the 17th century, but more military projection capablity. Spain might even work before the destruction of the armada at the hand of the British.
I also don't think Maticore is a "banking" power. Commercial? Of course, but I dont think they have much banking by outside nationals.

n7axw wrote:The irony of it is that the current trajectory was launched under High Ridge, New Kiev, and Janacek, for whom the whole notion of any expansion was anathama. From their point of view, Murphy must have a nasty sense of humor!

Don


I'm sorry. I don't follow. How do you get this? I follow that they beefed up the merchant marine for trading, but they never dreamed of the possiblity that they might be taking down the league one day.

n7axw wrote:Also, I got a bit of a chuckle out of the initial response to the question as to whether or not the GA should try to take the League's place. The answer was an emphatic no. And yet... is it not true that in offering systems trade agreements, wormhole access and mutual defense treaties that is at least in part what the GA is doing... without the League structure, of course, but still trying to fill the hole that the League's collapse leaves in its wake.

Don


If I may draw a modern day paraelle (and please, lets not argue modren events and stay on topic): When the US went into Iraq the second time, it's mission was to remove the ruler (regardless of the reasons why, oil or harboring terroist or whatever). The day after he was removed should have been the first day of withdraw. Our mission was accomplished. However, now we locked ourselves in a police role in Iraq, trying to mediate between the current factions. Similer things are happening in Afganistan after the removal of the Taliban and a new civilian government being set up.
I feel it is only inevitable that something like this will happen in the SL. Manticore will remove the current corrupt government and will be stuck holding back the bullies from pushiing the little systems around. What will exist, in my opinion, is Manticore stepping in like a school marm keeping the little ones from squabbling, much like the OFS states it does. With so many little independant systems now looking for support/solvency I think it is likely war is inevitablte... and Maticore will be acting like the SL, even if not in name.

n7axw wrote:What I am hoping for here is some fresh thinking. We all agree that there is indeed an increased risk of war, but applied universally, could it be that this is over simplified? For example, those systems in the Verge who were under the thumb of OFS and the trans stellars could wind up better off because they now can marshal their resourses for the betterment of their people rather than being bled dry by outsiders.
Don


WeirdHarold touched on this and I wanted to add my 2 cents also:
The OFS controled systems and those owned by the trans-stellers would actually make out the same, if not worse. OFS: Without the support from a central government, they may turn dictator and squeeze harder, since none of the regulations, which were mostly winked at anyway, no longer apply.
Trans-stellers: The OFS note double here. They go from businesses to private fiefdoms, even thought they were already run that way anyway.
I feel that no people, other than those in the systems with termini, memebers of the Alignment or of the Maya sector, will benefit from the end of the SL. It will be a spread of chaos more then peace.
If it wasn't for Mesa pushing the confrontations between the Empire and the League I thing the galaxy would be better off with the SL intact.
Better the devil you know...
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 11:02 am

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Commodore Oakius wrote:I also don't think Maticore is a "banking" power. Commercial? Of course, but I dont think they have much banking by outside nationals.


I don't recall whether it was in text during the after-attack summation or an info-dump, but Manticore's role in interstellar banking was emphasized as was its Admiralty courts' reputation for fairness.

Commodore Oakius wrote:What will exist, in my opinion, is Manticore stepping in like a school marm keeping the little ones from squabbling, much like the OFS states it does. With so many little independant systems now looking for support/solvency I think it is likely war is inevitablte... and Maticore will be acting like the SL, even if not in name.


I would quibble a bit here although I agree with your general premise: It won't be Manticore in the role of policeman, it will be the Grand Alliance.

In the short and medium term, the Grand Alliance will fill the modern role of UN Peacekeepers. In the long term, the Grand Alliance will dissolve or morph into a multinational peacekeeping force similar to UN or NATO military functions.

I don't expect anything as organized as the UN Security Council or General Assembly to form, as the Universe is just too big. One of the SL's main problems is the communications lag with the shell and verge; It just isn't possible to govern effectively when the fringes have so much necessary autonomy to deal with urgent matters.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Duckk   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 11:05 am

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I also don't think Maticore is a "banking" power. Commercial? Of course, but I dont think they have much banking by outside nationals.


viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1950

Manticore, because of its strategic location in the transportation system, is an obvious financial hub, and the majority of the League's sector banks have/had local offices in the Star Kingdom.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Grashtel   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 11:07 am

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Commodore Oakius wrote:I also don't think Maticore is a "banking" power. Commercial? Of course, but I dont think they have much banking by outside nationals.

Mr Weber has said is a major "banking" power as well as a commercial one http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/236/1

It is well worth looking through the Honorverse (and if you are interested in them the ones for other universes) section on http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/ as it is a collection of various posts from this forum, Baen's Bar, and Usenet by David Weber providing additional information and clarifications to material in the books on a very wide range of topics.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 11:33 am

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Grashtel wrote:Mr Weber has said is a major "banking" power as well as a commercial one http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/236/1


Duckk wrote:viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1950


Thanks guys. I knew I'd seen it, but couldn't remember where.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Commodore Oakius   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:00 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
Grashtel wrote:Mr Weber has said is a major "banking" power as well as a commercial one http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/236/1


Duckk wrote:viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1950


Thanks guys. I knew I'd seen it, but couldn't remember where.


I sit corrected. :oops:
And now that I have read the quote I seem to rememebr seeing in the past but I completely forgot all about it.

Weird Harold wrote:I would quibble a bit here although I agree with your general premise: It won't be Manticore in the role of policeman, it will be the Grand Alliance.



I concede the difference and your are correct. It would be the Grand Alliance at that point.
This has put me on another track though:
If the GA maintains stability after the end of the SL and MAlignment issues it seems that it would them form the new "core worlds" of a new governmental entity.
Remember the Leauge started out as a loose affliation, not the beuracracy it became. And others continue to mention treaties with the systems of the SL for the GA to have to maintain the peace, but that it what the SL did with a large part of the systems it associated with. how many mutual defense treaties did it have.
The destruction of the SL will leave a power vaccuum and the GA may get sucked into it and become a new SL, albeit with the best intentions, but we all know the road to hell...
In a galaxy of worlds, where ther is no instant communitcations from system to system, the best way of government is multiple independent nations. Creating one large government is prohibitive, as evidenced by the SL.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:47 pm

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Commodore Oakius wrote:If the GA maintains stability after the end of the SL and MAlignment issues it seems that it would them form the new "core worlds" of a new governmental entity.


That's possible, but I think it is unlikely. The SEM has already conceded that it can't rule Talbot directly and formed a Commonwealth style empire. The GA is more like the UN where each member remains autonomous and self-governing.

Commodore Oakius wrote:Remember the Leauge started out as a loose affliation, not the beuracracy it became. And others continue to mention treaties with the systems of the SL for the GA to have to maintain the peace, but that it what the SL did with a large part of the systems it associated with. how many mutual defense treaties did it have.


The GA does have the League to use as a model of how NOT to form a trans-stellar empire. I'd hope that they draw some valid conclusions.

The bilateral mutual defense and trade treaties are -- or should be -- "for the duration." I expect that individual members of the GA (and Anderman) will consider continuing or extending those treaties once the League is destroyed, but the GA itself will dissolve or morph into a UN style mediation court. (As opposed to the League's origin as an analogue of the League of Nations?)

Commodore Oakius wrote:In a galaxy of worlds, where ther is no instant communitcations from system to system, the best way of government is multiple independent nations. Creating one large government is prohibitive, as evidenced by the SL.


Honor's prescription for destroying the League explicitly aims at Balkanizing the remnants of the league so that no single nation or alliance of nations will be big enough to be a threat for a long time.

I'd hope that Manticore and the GA both can keep that vision in mind when positioning for the long-term.
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Re: Long term consequences of the League's collapse
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:52 pm

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Commodore Oakius wrote:I think Maticore is more like a mix of the Dutch and English of the late 16th though the mid 18th century. The Dutch had a massive Merchant Marine, Dutch East India Company, but never a military that they could project. England had less trading, until later in the 17th century, but more military projection capablity. Spain might even work before the destruction of the armada at the hand of the British.
I also don't think Maticore is a "banking" power. Commercial? Of course, but I dont think they have much banking by outside nationals.

n7axw wrote:The irony of it is that the current trajectory was launched under High Ridge, New Kiev, and Janacek, for whom the whole notion of any expansion was anathama. From their point of view, Murphy must have a nasty sense of humor!

Don


I'm sorry. I don't follow. How do you get this? I follow that they beefed up the merchant marine for trading, but they never dreamed of the possiblity that they might be taking down the league one day.

n7axw wrote:Also, I got a bit of a chuckle out of the initial response to the question as to whether or not the GA should try to take the League's place. The answer was an emphatic no. And yet... is it not true that in offering systems trade agreements, wormhole access and mutual defense treaties that is at least in part what the GA is doing... without the League structure, of course, but still trying to fill the hole that the League's collapse leaves in its wake.

Don


If I may draw a modern day paraelle (and please, lets not argue modren events and stay on topic): When the US went into Iraq the second time, it's mission was to remove the ruler (regardless of the reasons why, oil or harboring terroist or whatever). The day after he was removed should have been the first day of withdraw. Our mission was accomplished. However, now we locked ourselves in a police role in Iraq, trying to mediate between the current factions. Similer things are happening in Afganistan after the removal of the Taliban and a new civilian government being set up.
I feel it is only inevitable that something like this will happen in the SL. Manticore will remove the current corrupt government and will be stuck holding back the bullies from pushiing the little systems around. What will exist, in my opinion, is Manticore stepping in like a school marm keeping the little ones from squabbling, much like the OFS states it does. With so many little independant systems now looking for support/solvency I think it is likely war is inevitablte... and Maticore will be acting like the SL, even if not in name.

n7axw wrote:What I am hoping for here is some fresh thinking. We all agree that there is indeed an increased risk of war, but applied universally, could it be that this is over simplified? For example, those systems in the Verge who were under the thumb of OFS and the trans stellars could wind up better off because they now can marshal their resourses for the betterment of their people rather than being bled dry by outsiders.
Don


WeirdHarold touched on this and I wanted to add my 2 cents also:
The OFS controled systems and those owned by the trans-stellers would actually make out the same, if not worse. OFS: Without the support from a central government, they may turn dictator and squeeze harder, since none of the regulations, which were mostly winked at anyway, no longer apply.
Trans-stellers: The OFS note double here. They go from businesses to private fiefdoms, even thought they were already run that way anyway.
I feel that no people, other than those in the systems with termini, memebers of the Alignment or of the Maya sector, will benefit from the end of the SL. It will be a spread of chaos more then peace.
If it wasn't for Mesa pushing the confrontations between the Empire and the League I thing the galaxy would be better off with the SL intact.
Better the devil you know...


Hi Commodore Oakius,

I see you are relatively new, so welcome to the forums. Thank you for your nice post. I will try to respond here as best I can.

First, as I recall from textev, Manticore has in the range of about 400 SDPs. That was before Haven ran charging to the rescue. Further, they have just survived and defeated a much larger power than themselves. If Manticore wants to project power, with the most advanced and one of the most experienced battle fleets in the galaxy, they have lots of power to project. That will be even more true once they have their industrial plant up and running.

You have a valid point about the OFS satraps and the trans stellars. But I think it will be a mixed bag. Some places are going to be like you say, but others will be without outside help with the collapse of the League and those private fiefdoms may well find themselves in trouble when the locals decide to revolt and no one is available to ride to the rescue. Except in those places where the GA intervenes, chaos is going to be king for quite a while.

As for whether or not the galaxy would be a better place with the SL intact, again that is a mixed bag. Certainly it would be a more orderly, peaceful place. But here is the other side. The League had adopted policies of creeping imperialism, incorporating those smaller, isolated systems in the Verge through the noble OFS and then handing over their economies to the trans stellars as they cooperated in bleeding the economies of their victims dry. They also stacked the deck against the member worlds in the shell. The whole thing was set up to benefit the core worlds who as I understand the League could not directly tax. As I recall, for example, Saltash was shelling out 30% + of its GDP for the OFS's gentle services. In addition to that they had the controlling trans stellar raking off a good share of the profits. It was a system of debt peonage basically enslaving billions of people.

So the League had some horrible warts and was getting worse. At best it's kinda iffy to say that the League was a better choice than the chaos to follow for all too much of the galaxy.

The irony to which I was referring is that the Lynx terminus was explored and opened during the High Ridge administration. It was their decision to explore the options for opening the way for the Talbot Quadrant to membership in the Star Kingdom which in turn led to the events that were to follow. Most unlike High Ridge, Janecek, and New Kiev. (I doubt that DeCroix had any principles at all). They were playing politics, trying to find the thing most likely to curry favor at home and they thing came back to bite them in the arse in terms of taking off in a direction they would never have chosen to go. Most delicious.


Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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