Jonathan_S wrote:Theemile wrote:With Manticore inside Haven's OODA loop, Haven could easily loose their entire numerical advantage (and more) to Trevor's Star/Barnet . What are the chances Manticore could do another Speed Run to Haven?
Personally, I think it would be irresponsible. Taking Trevor's Star/Barnet would incur too many causalities. While they can quickly be cycled home to be repaired, replacing them on the front lines mean there are few viable reserves at home. Fortifying Trevor's Star with attendant local clean up raids makes the most sense, and just allow Haven's forces to come to them. (I would liquidate the facilities at Barnet - holding that system en force would be too much diversion of forces, and give no material benefit.)
And once you get too far past Trevor's Star you'll no longer be inside Haven's OODA loop -- as their loop shortens as forces get pushed back closer to Haven; just due to dramatically reducing communication times.
And while Manticore gets a partial reset of their OODA loop after taking Trevor's Star - eliminating much of their previous message lag - that starts growing again as they push further and further.
So that's another reason to at least pause after taking Trevor's Star. But yes, I do think it likely that with an immediate declaration of war that there's a very good chance that Manticore could over overrun Trevor's Star before Haven's fleet got their feet back from under them. I just don't think they could make it all that much further -- not until they have a chance to repair the damaged ships from that campaign, refit the ships coming out of reserve, and conversion of the captured units (Oh, and free up the personnel for those by standing down many of the Junction forts).
And of course, we were neglecting to mention the sudden need for more ship postings - Once you take Trevor's star, you have 2 more points that must be defended at all costs. In the books, 6th fleet was sidelined to create Trevor's Star's defensive fleet, and a new command, 8th Fleet, was created mostly of allied ships several years later to continue the assault into Havenite space. Would Manticore have sufficient hulls to properly defend Tevor's Star, it's other commands, AND a assault fleet sufficient to attack Havenite space inside that 6 month window?
I doubt it.