The E wrote:
If you are not completely stupid, yes. Consider the following points:
1. Unlike the Solarian League or Haven, the RF does not present a clear and present danger. It might become dangerous, but the same is true of any number of SL successor states with a critical mass of industry.
You might have a point if the RF is an unsuspecting accomplice. Your point is lost when we consider that if evidence is discovered through any means that suggests the whole war with the League, the League's collapse was orchestrated in order to allow the RF to succeed the League. The point is that they haven't done anything overt but they are central to the MA's plan. Destroy the RF or at least a large part of it and the MA will have to start from Scratch.
Any number of successor nations might come out, but how many of them would be a part of the largest war in human history? How many could be implicated in millions or billions of deaths because of their part in a plan?
The E wrote:2. The danger the RF represents is more on a philosophical level than anything else.
Nothing philosophical about it. If it becomes evident that the MA has instigated this war in order to replace the League with the RF, what reaction do you expect from the GA? Sit and wait to see what the MA actually plans to do with the RF?
The E wrote:3. Taking out the RF before it has done anything to harm the GA, just based on the assumption/accusation that because the Alignment is involved in it, it must be up to no good, creates an incentive for other successor states to start working on strong defences against the GA.
I highly doubt that the hundreds of core and shell systems will be that concerned with the problems of a few systems. As long as the GA dots their i's and crosses their t's and doesn't go overboard there should not be a problem. The league is collapsing, those systems will be more worried about neighbours with ill intentions or even pirates rather than the GA's actions against a small % of core/shell systems.
The E wrote:4. Furthermore, it will create a climate where the GA is seen not as a liberator from the stagnation of the League, but as a more unhinged, more oppressive version of it; this will make the security situation a lot more volatile than it has to be.
Do you actually think that many of those systems will see the GA as liberators? Most of the core and shell world's have been focusing almost exclusively on internal matters, the SLN has provided a security umbrella that has protected the League and it's members from reality.
For the first time in centuries if not ever many of those systems will be forced to build fleet's of their own. Most will not be pleased with the added burden of a fleet no matter how necessary nor will they be pleased with the nation that brought down the all powerful SLN. They were not oppressed by the system, most if not all of the core and many of the shell systems were part of the system not oppressed by it.
The E wrote:The RF isn't that large (it includes eleven star nations right now). If it was a large bloc like you suggest, I would agree with you, but a small collection like what it actually is at present is not a threat yet.
But my suggestion is that once enough evidence is present to eliminate the threat when there are 11 systems with their fleet's rather than wait 20 or 30 years when there might be a hundred or more highly industrialized systems with equal technology and overwhelming numerical superiority.
The E wrote:Also, consider this: The core worlds, as a group, are very likely to quickly form alliances after the fall of the League. These are nations that have been allied to each other for centuries; there aren't going to be that many instances of huge rifts between two or more neighbouring systems.
Unlikely, we know that there are area's that the SLN has to maintain a presence in order to keep League members from fighting each other, in what 2,000 systems I would think that there would be quite a few feud's going on.
Even if we don't account for feud's, the simple fact that there would be so many different reactions to the collapse of the League that it should keep the successor states busy for a long time. Some will try to build empires of their own, others will build defence alliances while others will try to go alone. As long as the GA does not indiscriminately go after anyone remotely suspected of being part of the RF it shouldn't shake them up too much.