Honorverse ramblings and musings

Everyone keeps pointing out the little time the SLN has and I keep hearing a little demon on my shoulders whispering in my ear 'Remember what happened to Japan when Yamamoto awakened a sleeping giant?'

How fast did America crank out hardware when pride fueled the man and woman on the assembly line? How much bigger is the League's industrial might now than then? The League isn't just a sleeping giant now. It's a sleeping titan. It just needed to be a bit more shakened to be awakened. That last ass massage delivered a shaking and a stirring.

I just don't see the League rolling over and dyeing. Why would they change centuries of the same MO. How can they curtail ingrown toenails of arrogance and disdain for certain neobarbs to do it? How can they watch themselves die? That would amount to them assuming the façade of an 800 lb. wussy. I don't see that. And I don't see the GA delivering a knockout punch until the League issues a formal declaration of war. The RMN seems to have the same policy as our present Navy -- "Do not fire on until fired upon."

Has either even officially declared war?

Everyone who thinks that the League is just going to roll over and get greased, do know that the next book is going to prove you wrong, don't you?

The Solarian League isn't remotely as cohesive as the US post-Pearl Harbor. (And it should be noted that prior to Pearl Harbor, there was a sizable contingent who didn't want to get involved in either the Asian or European conflicts). The League isn't a solitary, monolithic "sleeping titan"; it's a collection of interests often at odds with each other. The whole point of the Grand Alliance's strategy isn't to beat the League militarily. Military action is merely the stick, versus the carrot of diplomatic and economic incentives. Get factions to voluntarily remove themselves from the conflict.

And as was noted in various points in ART, the Grand Alliance considers it an effective state of war, regardless of what the Mandarins are declaring. Mike Henke certainly didn't wait to be fired on when she blasted a third of Crandall's force out of space.

cthia wrote:Everyone keeps pointing out the little time the SLN has and I keep hearing a little demon on my shoulders whispering in my ear 'Remember what happened to Japan when Yamamoto awakened a sleeping giant?'

How fast did America crank out hardware when pride fueled the man and woman on the assembly line? How much bigger is the League's industrial might now than then? The League isn't just a sleeping giant now. It's a sleeping titan. It just needed to be a bit more shakened to be awakened. That last ass massage delivered a shaking and a stirring.

I just don't see the League rolling over and dyeing. Why would they change centuries of the same MO. How can they curtail ingrown toenails of arrogance and disdain for certain neobarbs to do it? How can they watch themselves die? That would amount to them assuming the façade of an 800 lb. wussy. I don't see that. And I don't see the GA delivering a knockout punch until the League issues a formal declaration of war. The RMN seems to have the same policy as our present Navy -- "Do not fire on until fired upon."

Has either even officially declared war?

Everyone who thinks that the League is just going to roll over and get greased, do know that the next book is going to prove you wrong, don't you?

What Duckk said.

The key point isn't that the GA isn't interested in destroying or conquering the 2000-ish worlds of the League. It's interested in disarticulating them, eliminating the effectiveness of central League institutions.

The U.S. case isn't germane, mostly because the U.S. was a single, sufficiently united state with central government institutions that could respond effectively. The Solarian League is more like... the U.N., plus some military force and minus affection. If you took the U.N. and maybe ran it like a classic Chicago political machine, with the SLN as a huge corrupt police force that shakes down everyone but the rich and powerful, you'd have a better picture.

Who is going to line up to die for that dream?

The GA campaign is simply to eliminate the ability of the League Navy to apply armed suasion effectively and the ability of the League government to command sufficient respect or financial power to leave the member governments willing to continue to support it. Right now, the SLN can die if it fights and be a laughing stock if it does not. Time would help, but it has't got more time than League legitimacy on the one hand or roving GA/Alignment forces on the other allow it to have. The League government cannot rely on the SLN for fear; it cannot rely on its own corrupt, banal self to inspire anyone to give it more chances; it cannot rely on financial power when its twin sources of funding - protectorate extortion and tariffs - are specifically in the power of the GA fleets to neutralize.

They roused the sleeping giant - by hitting all its pressure points and camping on its throat. It's not getting up.

cthia wrote:Everyone keeps pointing out the little time the SLN has and I keep hearing a little demon on my shoulders whispering in my ear 'Remember what happened to Japan when Yamamoto awakened a sleeping giant?'

How fast did America crank out hardware when pride fueled the man and woman on the assembly line? How much bigger is the League's industrial might now than then? The League isn't just a sleeping giant now. It's a sleeping titan. It just needed to be a bit more shakened to be awakened. That last ass massage delivered a shaking and a stirring.

I just don't see the League rolling over and dyeing. Why would they change centuries of the same MO. How can they curtail ingrown toenails of arrogance and disdain for certain neobarbs to do it? How can they watch themselves die? That would amount to them assuming the façade of an 800 lb. wussy. I don't see that. And I don't see the GA delivering a knockout punch until the League issues a formal declaration of war. The RMN seems to have the same policy as our present Navy -- "Do not fire on until fired upon."

Has either even officially declared war?

Everyone who thinks that the League is just going to roll over and get greased, do know that the next book is going to prove you wrong, don't you?

That's not a good analogy. The US Navy had many new hulls in construction - they would have been available in '42 or '43 anyway had the Pacific war not started. They did have three or four carriers already in commission that weren't at Pearl Harbor, loaded with comparable aircraft.

The SLN is basically in a situation where the post-ACW era USN gets jumped by the WW2 era IJN. This is pretty bad for the USN - they have no radar, no battleships, no carriers, no decent aviation, their ships haven't been refitted with oodles of AA guns, they have few or no production lines or design plans to build all those new aircraft, munitions and equipment they desperately need and large swathes of their country want to be another country. However, Japan still could not carry on to threaten the US mainland(as Manticore cannot invade and occupy the League). What it instead does is trigger a second american civil war, splintering the states into multiple groupings. Now Japan is united with all of Asia and may form alliances with one or more of the states of America, no longer united.

Captain Gweon's analysis, delivered to Kolokoltsev and Kingsford, was that the "Haven Quadrant" encompassing Manticore, Talbott, Andermani space, Silesia, Haven, Erewhon and all the other systems inbetween would approach economic parity with the entire League in as little as fifteen years, but this does not factor in any systems which leave the League. We know of quite a few - 20 in Maya, 6 in Beowulf and her close allies, 11 in the RF and the entire Meyers Sector. These are only the tips of an avalanche.

And in the meantime, the GA will be keeping all eyes and ears out for any League boltholes and taking decisive action. The Sollies get no breathing room to catch up - between Pritchart, Benjamin and Elizabeth, there's no danger of GA pressure coming off.

munroburton wrote:The SLN is basically in a situation where the post-ACW era USN gets jumped by the WW2 era IJN. This is pretty bad for the USN - they have no radar, no battleships, no carriers, no decent aviation, their ships haven't been refitted with oodles of AA guns, they have few or no production lines or design plans to build all those new aircraft, munitions and equipment they desperately need and large swathes of their country want to be another country. However, Japan still could not carry on to threaten the US mainland(as Manticore cannot invade and occupy the League). What it instead does is trigger a second american civil war, splintering the states into multiple groupings. Now Japan is united with all of Asia and may form alliances with one or more of the states of America, no longer united.

The GA would, in this analogy, also be able to send "fleets" - call them ideally accurate stealth bombers, effectively - throughout "United" States territory.

So yeah - they can hit the League forces anywhere, with practical impunity, and the only thing keeping anyone in the League is those forces and habit.

cthia wrote:Everyone keeps pointing out the little time the SLN has and I keep hearing a little demon on my shoulders whispering in my ear 'Remember what happened to Japan when Yamamoto awakened a sleeping giant?'

This is exactly the situation discussed in the meeting where Honor proposed the "Harrington Doctrine" of destroying the League rather than defeating them.

The war against the League has to be primarily a diplomatic and commercial conflict with a limited and constrained military element. Most of the "hackenslash" gamer tactics proposed here in the forums would produce exactly the "sleeping giant" reaction you fear; the GA has to be very mindful of the possibility of forcing the League to stand together rather than breaking apart.

We're already seeing the first cracks in the SL in Maya and Madras sectors. Let's take a look at Madras first as we know the Maya sector already. As I see it in the next 6-12 months the RMN will turn over several of the escorts captured after Thurgoods surrender probably in the range of a division of CL's and squadron of DD's. After some training and recruiting the RMyN will have more and more turned over other moderately stable governments in the sector will also receive former FF light units from Thurgood's force.

Duckk wrote:The Solarian League isn't remotely as cohesive as the US post-Pearl Harbor. (And it should be noted that prior to Pearl Harbor, there was a sizable contingent who didn't want to get involved in either the Asian or European conflicts). The League isn't a solitary, monolithic "sleeping titan"; it's a collection of interests often at odds with each other. The whole point of the Grand Alliance's strategy isn't to beat the League militarily. Military action is merely the stick, versus the carrot of diplomatic and economic incentives. Get factions to voluntarily remove themselves from the conflict.

And as was noted in various points in ART, the Grand Alliance considers it an effective state of war, regardless of what the Mandarins are declaring. Mike Henke certainly didn't wait to be fired on when she blasted a third of Crandall's force out of space.

Good points Duckk. BUT...

The Solarian League isn't remotely as cohesive as the US post-Pearl Harbor. (And it should be noted that prior to Pearl Harbor, there was a sizable contingent who didn't want to get involved in either the Asian or European conflicts). The League isn't a solitary, monolithic "sleeping titan"; it's a collection of interests often at odds with each other.

Indeed. There were polarized factions in the U.S. until FDR's famous galvanizing speech. The man could deliver a speech. After that historical address, every man, woman and child were ready to personally take up arms and do battle themselves. I particularly like this historical quote of his...

Roosevelt: I like sub commanders. They have no time for bullshit, and neither do I.

My target point is that all the League needs is some charismatic, galvanizing speaker to rally the troops. If they learned anything from Germany, anti-Manty propaganda can accomplish much. Even select members of the Manty government and Navy assumed that the League would do just that -- spin a wild tale about Manty aggression, etc.

A huge mistake that the Manties made (in good faith towards the League I think, but a mistake nonetheless) is in not releasing Frontier Fleet's 'Secret contingency plans.' That could have potentially been used as a fulcrum to pry loose some of those member states. As it stands, the League can now (or whenever the Manties do decide to release) just cite the time in-between as opportunity to professionally doctor the data, yatta yatta yatta.

As everyone is so fond of stating, member states exist in a bubble with no idea of what's going on outside the League or maybe even their own system. Perhaps member states dislike their present rule, but what do they know of Manticore and what would make them want to open up to another tyrant -- as Manticore would most certainly be cast by League propaganda -- shooting their way into their lives?

Mike Henke certainly didn't wait to be fired on when she blasted a third of Crandall's force out of space.

In reaction to the fact that the RMN, in the form of three helpless destroyers, had already been fired upon.

At any rate, I'm absolutely positive that the League is going to put everything they have into knocking the upstart neobarbs off their high hobby horse in the next installment. I'll get my 'SLN All In' yet.

I can't believe everyone just thinks the League will roll over. Even if they're only successful in rallying some of the troops -- that's still a lot of troops.

Who do I think will choose to die for this League cause? Well, anyone not wanting to be a part of ...

"An aggressive Manticoran regime who would senselessly murder countless Solarian ships who were on a peaceful mission. Simply to avenge three lone destroyers who had committed a senseless, unfathomable act of mass murder.

A conscienceless regime who orchestrated a fake firing of Solarian missiles to justify firing everything they had and slaughtering a SLN fleet and several task forces wholesale, who themselves did not fire. An SLN fleet that only ventured into the Manty system because they refused to answer our correspondence.

A Manty government that knew we were coming. Who even knew the name of Eleventh Fleet's CO. Who knew the name of our operation, because we sent this information ahead of us. Operation Raging Justice, because we were enraged of their high handedness in turning one of our member states traitorous. For destroying a helpless space station with innocent civilian lives. Who destroyed Admiral Byng and his fleet, only after Byng rightfully destroyed three destroyers who had indeed attacked and destroyed a helpless civilian space station. Premeditated murderer runs through the blood of these neobarbs and we are morally charged and indebted to the many families who have been orphaned by Solarian officers who died on a mission of peace! We must act to protect our member states!"

Unbelievable? Beyond a shadow of a doubt?

I feel another 'I told you so' coming on. An 'I told you so' that my moral self won't ever let me say, because that's just who I am -- someone always toeing the moral high ground. lol

Question.

During the existing 'state' of war between the League and the Manties, would ambassadors of each be allowed to remain on the host planet? Surely not. And with the junctions closed and travel curtailed, how would Manticore know what is going on within the League?

Of course the League is going to fight. Gweon's briefing in ART says as much. It's either fight with a hope of hanging on, or not fight and guarantee the League disintegrates. It's still not going to matter.

Some think like Beowulf and knows the League is full of shit, and wants no part of it. They want out.

Some don't know whose fault this mess is, but they do know they didn't sign up for the rise of a powerful centralized government which must inevitably arise when fighting a war. They want out.

Some don't care about Manticore and the conflict, but do see their economies contracting due to the trade interdiction, their constituents are demanding relief, and know that they can cut a deal. They want out.

Some see this as an opportunity to grab power in their own region of space (and no, it's not just the Verge and the Alignment's member states). They want out.

It doesn't matter how much your hypothetical "charismatic leader" type person tries to rally the the League. There are forces far more powerful than a single personality at play here. Getting out of the line of fire does not necessarily mean joining the enemies of the League (albeit true specifically for Beowulf). Lots of nations declared neutrality or were simply uninvolved during the World Wars. Indeed, getting someone up on the podium and declaring "you're either with us or against us" is exactly the kind of polarization which will further alienate League members.

It took the RHN 5 years at crash priority to catch back up with Manticore, and that was with a ruthlessly practical R&D head, their most modern shipyard, a carte blanche to do whatever they wanted, and 10 preceding years of a losing war to clear out the cruft. Even after making the huge supposition that the League could pull off the same trick (which they most certainly can not), that's 5 years of the Alliance running rampant. The League is not going to survive as a cohesive entity after 5 years of military and economic pressure. It's going to lose the Verge completely, most of the Shell, and even the Core worlds are going to be fractured into multiple, even dozens of pieces.