"Why are you still alive?"

Theemile wrote:The only "In" they have left is they can continue to attempt to destabilize the SL through the actions of the RF, and third parties. Barregos and team are on a path to pull their region away from the SL, and there are probably several others which have no direct connection to either the RF or the Malign. how the SL handles this, and the revelations of the Mandarin's activities will dictate if other members decide to peel away in the process.

And we still don't know if any thousand year old grudges will flare up, or if any Exo-League polities decide to take advantage of this period of weakness and go on an interstellar shopping spree. Any or all of this could be encouraged by the Malign or the RF.

We'll just have to wait and see.

I don't know about that either. Any consequences of the SL going on a diet as a result of the Manticore-Solarian War are happening now, at a time when the MAlign has lost its main arteries of influence and must remain hidden at all costs. They can't afford to create a new trail that leads back to them, if they are to survive. Which isn't to say they won't do it any way and that could indeed be what would happen.

The Harrington Plan did ask for breaking up the League into smaller pieces that would each individually be strong enough to stand on their own and especially be friends with Manticore and the GA. The commerce that would result from this as well as possible tech transfers would make each of them strong enough to not be pushed around. Barregos and the Maya Sector are a good example of that: they're going to be the first navy, after the GA ones, to have an SD(P) fleet, now that the Galton Navy is no more. And the price of the GA friendship will be that they don't go "on shopping spree."

As I said above, the RF is way too small to be a force right now. If they tried, the RF may face an intervention. Anyone else they may be still puppeteers for is likely to be even smaller. And there's the risk of a trail leading to the Alignment.

What they need is, as Benjamin said, decades to plant new seeds.

They should also re-evaluate the means towards the end. The chaos and war were a "how" to achieve their objective, not the objective itself.

How it The Plan off the rails?
Remember when Albrecht made his very rare hyperspace flight to announce to the still stealthed Renaissance Factor that they had moved into the endgame? That was to be the start positioning of the photo RF people to actively engage their already preprepared targets.

Haven and Manticore got way ahead of the tech curves and, though they didn't make it on the 1st try at direct attack of the Manticore Home System, Haven would have still given the SL a massive fight, if it did force Manticore to sue for peace.
Since the Alignment was not really in the position to use some other player to break Manticore the decision was made to keep Manticore from taking Haven by hitting the MBS (and Grayson, SEMs primary partner against Haven with Oyster Bay. Strike too early, at nowhere near enough places (not able to also hit any of Have's locations) and give Haven the opportunity to almost walkover Manticore.......but instead, Haven decided that this war was both pointless and they had been gullied by a 3rd party---and offered an alliance against their common enemy.
So the Alignment let the surprise factors of the g-torps and "invisible space ships) out of the bag though they did kill a lot of people.

Having sort of succeeded in causing Manticore big trouble via Bing, Crandall and Monica, mostly the Alignment got SLN ships and crews slaughtered. The attempted intimindation of Beowulf doesn't go as planned either- Beowulf WILL stand to to the SLN/SL and Beowulf really is a close allied system with Manticore. No bloodbath at Beowulf.

Filearta is dispatched and is "dispatched" but the GA with more slaughter of SLN ships and crews. By which time some people in the SLN are seriously looking for why the SLN is doing such a shit job and where the strategy is comming from.

By the time the Mandarins get behind Operation Buccaneer it has been worked out that "somebody"/aka the Other Guys" really is using nanite assassins and as autonomous involuntary suicide agents for "the Other Guy's agents.

Harrington eliminates EVERY SLN warship and essentialy everything orbital in Sol System except the orbital habitats with dam near(we are not told of any) no loss of life---so no bloodbath at Sol

The League is in a mess but not-yet-invovled in a civil war or --yet-- in internal wars of conquest by former League Systems.

Mike takes Mesa, is getting blamed for the destruction but Houdini wasn't anywhere near as clean as far as getting important people away for the Alignment and they still sacrifice Mesa though the "pin the nuclear sticks on Manticore" is having challanges sticking.

The RF has now a few members but we are not sure if any of them are outside the initial dozen which were already controlled at the the very top by Alignment lines.

Mesa and so many of the companies/transtellars that were controlled by the Alignment are no longer available to them. And the GA found Galton pretty dam quick for a conspiracy arsenal hiding out with effectively no commerce with the rest of humanity except for drop-shipped arms supplies.

The Alignment has Darius, it has some powerful weapons and stealthy delivery systems. What it does not have any longer is the broad reach of communications and quiet movement of people and materials around. It's nanite safeguard is in the process of killing off any agent questioned and --if they have any still untapped after various purges (at Haven) or destroying infrastructure at Manticore- is running low on embedded agents and moles.

The much discussed power and shock value of the LDs is not so quite as usefull since the consensus seems to be that anything involving an "invisible spaceship" is going to be the Alignment....tough to strike from the shadows and blame someone else when you are the only one who has the weapons involved,

And.....the Detweiler clones are lashing out from ? anger, frustration, need to DO SOMETHING? Smashing things in that oh-so-familure-Alignment manner of blowing stuff up and obviously sending a message "we did this and you can't stop us" routine is what you might be called counter-productive if your intention it to pull the grass over your head and hide out quietly for the next century or so.

The Plan is in tatters and the wolves are hunting Alphas,

cthia wrote:The RF is guaranteed to become the "capital system" because they will readily accept all of the technologies. I really don't see a reason for the Detweilers to worry.

I really see NO cause for concern EXCEPT being found before their technology hatches and matures.

tlb wrote:I do not understand how you fail to see that the plan is massively off the rails.

cthia wrote:I don't because the end game is still achievable. Off the rails means derailed and immobile. It isn't off the rails, it has simply jumped tracks. The GA pulled the rail switch and detoured the train about a much longer path. But the train is still moving.

I agree that quite a bit of the middle game has been upset - bypassed by the switch - but the endgame is what matters. If it is still achievable, then what is really lost?

"Off the rails" and "jumped the track" (you are confusing this with "switched track") are the same thing, from The Free Dictionary:

jump the track(s)
1. Literally, of a train, to derail from the track. Due to a technical issue, the train wasn't able to slow down ahead of the turn and ended up jumping the track because of its speed.
2. By extension, to veer off in very unexpected directions; to lose or change focus in surprising or bizarre ways. The long-running drama has by this point jumped the track so completely that it would be foolish to try and summarize it for the uninitiated. The manager's speech really jumped the tracks about halfway through, shifting into a weird commentary on the nature of corporate America.

One thing you seem to be missing is that the only technology essential to the plan is that of genetic manipulation and that is not exclusive to the Malign; the Mesan Engagement and Beowulf know just as much as the Malign does. So the Renaissance Factor will not have a monopoly on uplift, but will be competing with the new government on Mesa and the established power of Beowulf.

Perhaps you are talking about such things as the spider drive when you mention technology and so are talking more in terms of military action. Although there was some possible military action in the final stage of the Malign Plan, generally what was expected was that the Renaissance Factor would be a haven from the war ruined remains of Haven and the Solarian League and systems would flock to their protection. That is the part cannot and will not happen, because no major system has been ruined by war; and the Renaissance Factor is only a small player now that the war involving the Solarian League is over.

There probably is a way forward for the Malign and the Renaissance Factor; but it is not whatever was projected in the Plan. That scrap of paper will be trashed and a new scenario devised; and that is what is meant by saying the 600 year old plan is off the rails.

Wormhole links are unpredictable. One of the things which derailed the Alignment's timetable, if not quite their entire plan, was the discovery of the Manticore-Lynx bridge.

Which brought Manticore about four to six hundred light years closer to Mesa. From that point onwards, much of the Alignment moves have been reactive and probably improvised - the half-baked Talbott resistance, Monica affair, Byng and Crandall's deployments. They were forced to launch Houdini much earlier than intended and even then it did not succeed 100%, costing them their shadow emperor.

The prematurely launched Oyster Bay was also completely reactive(to Apollo), whereas the original OOB would have been completely proactive. This turned it from a total tactical success into a total strategic failure as it planted the seed of a Haven-Manticore alliance.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:The RF is guaranteed to become the "capital system" because they will readily accept all of the technologies. I really don't see a reason for the Detweilers to worry.

I really see NO cause for concern EXCEPT being found before their technology hatches and matures.

tlb wrote:I do not understand how you fail to see that the plan is massively off the rails.

cthia wrote:I don't because the end game is still achievable. Off the rails means derailed and immobile. It isn't off the rails, it has simply jumped tracks. The GA pulled the rail switch and detoured the train about a much longer path. But the train is still moving.

I agree that quite a bit of the middle game has been upset - bypassed by the switch - but the endgame is what matters. If it is still achievable, then what is really lost?

"Off the rails" and "jumped the track" (you are confusing this with "switched track") are the same thing, from The Free Dictionary:

jump the track(s)
1. Literally, of a train, to derail from the track. Due to a technical issue, the train wasn't able to slow down ahead of the turn and ended up jumping the track because of its speed.
2. By extension, to veer off in very unexpected directions; to lose or change focus in surprising or bizarre ways. The long-running drama has by this point jumped the track so completely that it would be foolish to try and summarize it for the uninitiated. The manager's speech really jumped the tracks about halfway through, shifting into a weird commentary on the nature of corporate America.

One thing you seem to be missing is that the only technology essential to the plan is that of genetic manipulation and that is not exclusive to the Malign; the Mesan Engagement and Beowulf know just as much as the Malign does. So the Renaissance Factor will not have a monopoly on uplift, but will be competing with the new government on Mesa and the established power of Beowulf.

Perhaps you are talking about such things as the spider drive when you mention technology and so are talking more in terms of military action. Although there was some possible military action in the final stage of the Malign Plan, generally what was expected was that the Renaissance Factor would be a haven from the war ruined remains of Haven and the Solarian League and systems would flock to their protection. That is the part cannot and will not happen, because no major system has been ruined by war; and the Renaissance Factor is only a small player now that the war involving the Solarian League is over.

There probably is a way forward for the Malign and the Renaissance Factor; but it is not whatever was projected in the Plan. That scrap of paper will be trashed and a new scenario devised; and that is what is meant by saying the 600 year old plan is off the rails.

You are absolutely correct about "jumped the tracks." I was actually thinking "jumped tracks." You are old enough to remember the slot cars of yesteryear. Those boogers would actually jump from one track onto the other.* Hence, jumped tracks. I am surprised my intent wasn't obvious from the context. At any rate, my badd.

But I don't think the entire plan has been derailed. As I see munroburton has posted above, I think that only the timetable has been derailed because the new track it has jumped onto includes the more scenic route. (-:

Heck, even the timetable can be put back on track if those Spiders are as formidable as I would like them to be. They can [reign rain] terror down on the Galaxy with nobody to stop them, sewing seeds of fear and despair. And the RF can emerge as the one force that can oppose them. Sort of a good cop bad cop as it were. Much like the game once played by the SL and OFS.

* It may be interesting to note that when those slot cars jumped onto another track (jumped tracks) you would lose control of them to the owner of the other track. Both cars would be speeding along on his track until you collected your car. The MA has to recover from the error. I think it is achievable if the MAN has a chance to bulk up in the gym and adopt a terror campaign on the Galaxy.

As a matter of fact, the all seeing intellect of an Alpha could have set Galton up to become the real Alignment and the headquarters of the RF. How is that for a twisty plot of a contingency plan. Talk about a misdirection.

cthia wrote:As a matter of fact, the all seeing intellect of an Alpha could have set Galton up to become the real Alignment and the headquarters of the RF. How is that for a twisty plot of a contingency plan. Talk about a misdirection.

I don't think anyone is doubting that they could still achieve the objective, if given enough time and some luck. The problems I think we'll likely see in the next books are:

One, they are not given enough time. The GA will not stop putting pressure in finding Darius and will, eventually, narrow down. I can't think of a realistic way of finding Darius right now, but there are many possible ways for the author to take.

Two, they are still human and their human failing will fail them. They were so close to the endgame that they will be impatient and will not lie low like they ought to. That will provide more clues to the intelligence services trying to find them, which brings us back to the first point.

Three, they will continue to pursue a plan that has failed, instead of coming up with a new one. The objective is the genetic uplift; the military is a means to that, but will become the objective. As anyone with market strategic competition experience will tell you, the first mover has the advantages and they are not the first mover in military matters. What they should do is change the game to something they are good at and have a strategic advantage on. But they won't.

cthia wrote:But I don't think the entire plan has been derailed. As I see munroburton has posted above, I think that only the timetable has been derailed because the new track it has jumped onto includes the more scenic route. (-:

Heck, even the timetable can be put back on track if those Spiders are as formidable as I would like them to be. They can [reign rain] terror down on the Galaxy with nobody to stop them, sewing seeds of fear and despair. And the RF can emerge as the one force that can oppose them. Sort of a good cop bad cop as it were. Much like the game once played by the SL and OFS.

Let us suppose that the spider-drive does make a totally-invisible totally-unstoppable weapon; then how is the Renaissance Factor going to explain that they alone are immune? Aren't people going to wonder when a campaign of terror is being run across almost all of human space; why a specific group of planets, not otherwise distinguished, is being excluded?

In the plan, people would have joined the Renaissance Factor, because it was neutral in the Manticore - Haven - Solarian League war (which would have also caused people to join the Andermani Empire, something the plan did not anticipate). I expect they will put a lot more effort into countering the spider-drive ships than in joining the Renaissance Factor, with its "security" which seems to derive from a deal with the Malign.

PS: I never had anything to do with slot cars growing up, so I doubt that I would recognize your metaphor. even if it had been made clearer.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:But I don't think the entire plan has been derailed. As I see munroburton has posted above, I think that only the timetable has been derailed because the new track it has jumped onto includes the more scenic route. (-:

Heck, even the timetable can be put back on track if those Spiders are as formidable as I would like them to be. They can [reign rain] terror down on the Galaxy with nobody to stop them, sewing seeds of fear and despair. And the RF can emerge as the one force that can oppose them. Sort of a good cop bad cop as it were. Much like the game once played by the SL and OFS.

Let us suppose that the spider-drive does make a totally-invisible totally-unstoppable weapon; then how is the Renaissance Factor going to explain that they alone are immune? Aren't people going to wonder when a campaign of terror is being run across almost all of human space; why a specific group of planets, not otherwise distinguished, is being excluded?

Remember, it would be a good cop bad cop combo They don't have to be immune if the MA excludes them from their hit list because they have accepted genetic uplift. The MA's ire has always been directed at the star nations who are against their genetic research. They are the adoptees and supporters of that damn Beowulf Code!

Plus, the RF can claim to have developed a spider drive detector and the MA can allow them to win a few skirmishes. Even claim to have destroyed an LD. They can offer protection to any government that joins them. Of course they could decide not to share their classified tech for want of remaining somewhat neutral.

tlb wrote:In the plan, people would have joined the Renaissance Factor, because it was neutral in the Manticore - Haven - Solarian League war (which would have also caused people to join the Andermani Empire, something the plan did not anticipate). I expect they will put a lot more effort into countering the spider-drive ships than in joining the Renaissance Factor, with its "security" which seems to derive from a deal with the Malign.

PS: I never had anything to do with slot cars growing up, so I doubt that I would recognize your metaphor. even if it had been made clearer.

I forgot how such a prohibitively expensive hobby it was. Complete professional sets cost more than actual cars. A brand new Toyota cost less that $4,000 then. A 1/32 scale slot car track and at least two cars, repair kits and replacement parts can easily top $2,000. If you wanted to be a serious contender you had to have at least three or four cars. And of course, you had to pay for time on the tracks.

It was a rich man's sport. I was simply a young kid kicking old ass every Saturday at the track. I knew how to soup the cars up, even beyond the more expensive replacement parts.

I eventually sold my collection for over $10,000.

cthia wrote:But I don't think the entire plan has been derailed. As I see munroburton has posted above, I think that only the timetable has been derailed because the new track it has jumped onto includes the more scenic route. (-:

Heck, even the timetable can be put back on track if those Spiders are as formidable as I would like them to be. They can [reign rain] terror down on the Galaxy with nobody to stop them, sewing seeds of fear and despair. And the RF can emerge as the one force that can oppose them. Sort of a good cop bad cop as it were. Much like the game once played by the SL and OFS.

tlb wrote:Let us suppose that the spider-drive does make a totally-invisible totally-unstoppable weapon; then how is the Renaissance Factor going to explain that they alone are immune? Aren't people going to wonder when a campaign of terror is being run across almost all of human space; why a specific group of planets, not otherwise distinguished, is being excluded?

cthia wrote:Remember, it would be a good cop bad cop combo They don't have to be immune if the MA excludes them from their hit list because they have accepted genetic uplift. The MA's ire has always been directed at the star nations who are against their genetic research. They are the adoptees and supporters of that damn Beowulf Code!

Plus, the RF can claim to have developed a spider drive detector and the MA can allow them to win a few skirmishes. Even claim to have destroyed an LD. They can offer protection to any government that joins them. Of course they could decide not to share their classified tech for want of remaining somewhat neutral.

But that would mean that other people could claim to accept genetic uplift, without joining the RF (even Beowulf could change to align closer to the Mesan Engagement) and we will see how much good that does.

If the author(s) were to decide to go that route, we will see how it turns out. You do realize that the Malign is NOT going to win at the end?

I am not sure how someone during a total terror campaign can say they are neutral and so hold back a weapon that is said to stop it. The most likely outcome of attempting that is for the rest of humanity to declare war on them.

cthia wrote:Remember, it would be a good cop bad cop combo They don't have to be immune if the MA excludes them from their hit list because they have accepted genetic uplift. The MA's ire has always been directed at the star nations who are against their genetic research. They are the adoptees and supporters of that damn Beowulf Code!

That's the internal information, not for public consumption. As far as we know of the Plan, that little tidbit was never supposed to become public. The RF's acceptance of genetic modifications was supposed to happen while no one else was paying attention to those small details of legalities while the Galaxy burned.

Announcing that that is your objective is actually counterproductive in that case. As tlb said, that will cause others to flock to accepting it, but not accepting the other aspects of the Plan that are required, like that of the Detweilers' absolute control of who gets what modifications. It would also be remembered as the reason why this entire chaos happened.

Plus, the RF can claim to have developed a spider drive detector and the MA can allow them to win a few skirmishes. Even claim to have destroyed an LD. They can offer protection to any government that joins them. Of course they could decide not to share their classified tech for want of remaining somewhat neutral.

And make itself the target for every single spy in the Galaxy, trying to steal that secret. And what happens when others can show that it didn't do anything, which won't take long?