New passive defense system

thinkstoomuch wrote:So if one of those systems had 10,000 of those pods that would be 40,000 missiles launched at 6 ships in the RMN squadron. Which would be a total of 7,000 each. Granted that is going to be hugely light lagged and wildly inaccurate but I am thinking that they would probably hit something. I wonder if the sensors on said missiles being twice the size and better computers than the RHN was able to use might not be better in the hit rate problems inherent in light lagged.

You wouldnt be able to fire pods at an Invictus BatRon. But we have been over this.
Taken a look at the Battle of Solon lately?
The Havies fired 11000 Missiles at 2 Invictus Class Superdreadnoughts in one single salvo.
They got 269 hits.
The Moriarty Salvo was 17.000 missiles but all they got was Intolerant and two BCs.
That was the best they have got, with full telemtry links to the missile.
The League worlds a lightyears away from achieving anything like that.
Now against an integrated Missile Defense of an entire Squadron of Invictus Class SD(P)s? With some screens?
The Cathapract sucked at Monica, i dont see much going for them.

thinkstoomuch wrote:Then we run into the whole but their pods so we will use mistletoe against them. But wait instead of having pods independently deployed we just load them onto a "derelict freighters" in orbit. When it comes time to fire said pods you just expel them into space out the freighters and launch them. First thing that the raiding force knows is they have a huge missile wave coming at them.

So, the RMN mistletoes the freighters.
Remember, your League worlds doesnt know anything about Mistletoe.

Star Knight wrote:You wouldnt be able to fire pods at an Invictus BatRon. But we have been over this.
Taken a look at the Battle of Solon lately?
The Havies fired 11000 Missiles at 2 Invictus Class Superdreadnoughts in one single salvo.
They got 269 hits.
The Moriarty Salvo was 17.000 missiles but all they got was Intolerant and two BCs.
That was the best they have got, with full telemtry links to the missile.
The League worlds a lightyears away from achieving anything like that.
Now against an integrated Missile Defense of an entire Squadron of Invictus Class SD(P)s? With some screens?
The Cathapract sucked at Monica, i dont see much going for them.

Topic Drift warning to correct inaccurate data.

Present at the Battle of Solon.

2 Invictus class SD(P)s
~570 LAC's (6 (was 4) CLAC loads)
5 Agemnon BC(P)
4 Saganami-C CAs
4 Star Knight CAs
6 CLs

So to have a comparable Raiding force would require 6 SD(P)s, 15 BC(P)s, 12 CLACs(Containing ~1,710 LACs), 12CA(L)s, 18 (was 12) CAs, 8 CLs. Or their equivalents in MDM defensive engagements. That raiding task force is now a fleet. That would get you the same defense against 33,000 missiles incoming. Notice I said 40,000 incoming that number was not randomly chosen.

Something else to note 53 Medusa SD(P)s at 3rd Fleet was losing 2+SD(P)s to waves of 24,000 missiles. No screening units limited LAC support. Unknown number keyhole equipped.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled topic. On alternate defenses for missile defense. Which I am still contemplating.

My Apologies for the topic drift.
T2M

Remembered the number of CLACs wrong not in my spreadsheet as they stayed outside the Hyper limit and did not add to the missile defense and not in my spread sheet. only realized it when I looked at the posted message.:-(

Minor nit:
Cataphract was used at Battle of Torch (Model A) and at the Manticore/Grayson Oyster Bay operations (Model C).

The Technodyne single drive missiles were used at the Battle of Monica.

Not sure whether you are saying the Catphract or the Technodyne missiles weren't very good.

Star Knight wrote:

thinkstoomuch wrote:So if one of those systems had 10,000 of those pods that would be 40,000 missiles launched at 6 ships in the RMN squadron. Which would be a total of 7,000 each. Granted that is going to be hugely light lagged and wildly inaccurate but I am thinking that they would probably hit something. I wonder if the sensors on said missiles being twice the size and better computers than the RHN was able to use might not be better in the hit rate problems inherent in light lagged.

You wouldnt be able to fire pods at an Invictus BatRon. But we have been over this.
Taken a look at the Battle of Solon lately?
The Havies fired 11000 Missiles at 2 Invictus Class Superdreadnoughts in one single salvo.
They got 269 hits.
The Moriarty Salvo was 17.000 missiles but all they got was Intolerant and two BCs.
That was the best they have got, with full telemtry links to the missile.
The League worlds a lightyears away from achieving anything like that.
Now against an integrated Missile Defense of an entire Squadron of Invictus Class SD(P)s? With some screens?
The Cathapract sucked at Monica, i dont see much going for them.

thinkstoomuch wrote:Then we run into the whole but their pods so we will use mistletoe against them. But wait instead of having pods independently deployed we just load them onto a "derelict freighters" in orbit. When it comes time to fire said pods you just expel them into space out the freighters and launch them. First thing that the raiding force knows is they have a huge missile wave coming at them.

So, the RMN mistletoes the freighters.
Remember, your League worlds doesnt know anything about Mistletoe.

Haven was getting hits with 24k missiles per wave when firing from two angles, one of which wasn't getting screened. Haven also has pretty effective EW missiles, something the SLN doesn't use yet at all (neither side had them at Torhc, for example).

A scientist class SD launches 32 missiles, so you'd need a fleet of 750 SD's to get a salvo density as large as we saw in Battle of Manticore, 1250 to get to 40k. 3rd fleet was mostly 1st gen Harrington/Medusas, as 8th fleet was getting all the keyhole ships, but I guess some of them might have received upgrades at some point after Buttercup.

40K is a pretty big salvo. It'll kill some lacs and ding up the SD's a bit in a 6 SD(P), 2CLAC squadron. But if you can't sustain the salvo (massive succeeding waves of 40k each) and aim it precisely (those 24K missiles were hitting 2 ships at a time, not spread over the whole fleet) a battle squadron of new-build ships would just shake off a wave like that with pretty much no impact on combat effectiveness.

Star Knight wrote:

namelessfly wrote:By the time that Manticore has reconstituted its industrial capacity from the ground up, many of the nearly two thousand former SL member systems and untold hundreds of independant systems whose industrial capacity and technology is nearly comparable to Manticore's at the start of the first Havenite War will have reverse engineered MDMs and missile pods and possibly microfusion plants as well.

Why should they?
They have a long way to go before they reach the armament levels and thinking of even prewar days in the Haven Quadrant.
People seem to forget that those Sollys have been at peace for more than a millennia!
The SLN aside, there is literally nobody around whos actually knows how to organize and fight a decent interstellar war.
That fact will slow them down considerably, no matter what tech base.
They will reverse engineer MDMsm, Mikrofusion, FTL, SD(P)s or whatever?
What makes you think that that will occur?
Most of your 2000 worlds wont see much of Haven Quadrant tech. They will look upon the guys around them and build accordingly for the most part.

I can sum up an answer to all these questions. Because people want the best. How many people do you know that buy the newest phone, TV, computer, car, etc. even though what they have is perfect working order?

While the SLN is outdated and overrun with beancounters, there is some evidence that many SDFs are technologically more advanced than the SLN.

I said it before and i will say it again, most of the solly worlds wont even think about going to war with Manticore after the League is done. Thats just not in their interest.

I can agree with that, but until the League is done, and for the dumber leaders, we shall have to see.

Star Knight wrote:

thinkstoomuch wrote:So if one of those systems had 10,000 of those pods that would be 40,000 missiles launched at 6 ships in the RMN squadron. Which would be a total of 7,000 each. Granted that is going to be hugely light lagged and wildly inaccurate but I am thinking that they would probably hit something. I wonder if the sensors on said missiles being twice the size and better computers than the RHN was able to use might not be better in the hit rate problems inherent in light lagged.

You wouldnt be able to fire pods at an Invictus BatRon. But we have been over this.

Do Invictuses, Invicti?, have some magic power that prevents people from shooting at them?

Taken a look at the Battle of Solon lately?
The Havies fired 11000 Missiles at 2 Invictus Class Superdreadnoughts in one single salvo.
They got 269 hits.
The Moriarty Salvo was 17.000 missiles but all they got was Intolerant and two BCs.
That was the best they have got, with full telemtry links to the missile.
The League worlds a lightyears away from achieving anything like that.

Please provide evidence that the League worlds, not the SLN, are nowhere near that. Remember that the SLN has a serious not made here problem, and that is not SLN discovered. The Manticore-Haven wars were observed by various SDFs firsthand, and I'm sure that many of them were interested in the expanding speed, range, and EW capabilities shown. It was the SLN that was dismissing everything.

Now against an integrated Missile Defense of an entire Squadron of Invictus Class SD(P)s? With some screens?
The Cathapract sucked at Monica, i dont see much going for them.

Sure it will suck, but that doesn't mean that necessarily it will be a complete failure.

thinkstoomuch wrote:Then we run into the whole but their pods so we will use mistletoe against them. But wait instead of having pods independently deployed we just load them onto a "derelict freighters" in orbit. When it comes time to fire said pods you just expel them into space out the freighters and launch them. First thing that the raiding force knows is they have a huge missile wave coming at them.

So, the RMN mistletoes the freighters.
Remember, your League worlds doesnt know anything about Mistletoe.

And why does Manticore Mistletoe the freighters? They are civilian ships in orbit around a planet. Is there any evidence of Manticore attacking civilian ships or merchant ships?

You are giving Manticore an advantage that doesn't exist, in that they always seem to know what the other side is planning.

I don't see SL/RF operations being effective against Haven sector anytime soon. Defense ability with huge missiles. Yes. Offensive? Mannerheim and Co. will soon have a true MDM. They already have a baby MDM.

I think the way this is going to go down for the next couple of books(5- years) is that all of the focus will be on the RF 1)breaking the SL and 2) the RF consolidating their position and handing out drawings etc to its new "allies" to start mass production while they get their Deitweilers out and 3) Haven Sector/Maya Sector aligning their ducks in a row and gathering intelligence on who is who and what is what with extremely limited offensives while they get their shipbuilding capacity rebuilt and "standardized" between the new "allies".

The RF doesn't care about the Haven Sector currently. If it wasn't for their military tech superiority, they wouldn't have uncorked OB yet at all, as their original plan was to cripple said verge powers so they couldn't come to the aid of the SL while the RF was busy gobbling it up under their new banner.

I don't see the passive system working for anyone unless they have Keyhole and RD's as what one is effectively doing is implacing permament "gun smoke" effectively blinding large sections of their shipboard sensors.

@ StarKnight. Since when do humans not know how to wage war? Have you never read history? Is everyone in the SL and all their trillions of people stupid and you in your arrogance think they are as well simply because a few power hungry ignorant bafoon terds have maneuvered their way to the top? Might take 2 years, but I guarantee said bafoons for the majority will be gone as the RF will do it for Manticore and Co. if the SL population itself doesn't do so. Amazing things happen when a population gets scared. Governments change. Which direction said change sprints too isn't always good though.

Would you please explain why the SLN can't figure out how to fight an intersteller war when it has just as much experience if not mroe than the RMN had at the beginning of the first Havenite War?

In fact RMN emphasis was almost totally on junction forts and escort, commerce protection and light raiding units such as DDs, CLs, CAs and BCs. Manticore had very few DNs and SDs until King Roger started their building program and essentially no experience in fleet engagement.

Haven had far less experience at commerce protection and while they hadn't had to confront an opponent as capable of Manticore before they'd conquerred numerous systems with relatively significant system defesne forces.

Please, Please keep in mind that each of the core SL systems alone has a population that is larger than the entire SEM and probably has a comparable industrial base. While applied military technology isn't anywhere up to Manticoran standards, their understanding of underlying technlogies is at about the same level.

To get a good analogy forget about US verses a disintergrating Soviet Union.

Better analogy is Israel against a disintergrating United States. States such as California, Texas, and New York just to name a few have greater populations, greater GDP, greater industrial base, comparable if not better technology. Israel is extremely innovative militarily but, can it really compete against all of these states if they go on a massive R and D and building program. Now magnify the size of the United States relative to Israel by about two orders of magnitude and you have an idea of what Manticore will be confronting.

You keep asking why the former SL worlds wouldnt' remain complacent. If you'd been relying on an international organization comparable to the UN to protect you for ten centuries then that organization's navy got its ass severely kicked, wouldn't you beging to worry about your defense? Think also that you suddenly wake up to the fact that not only to your former UN members all have nukes but every third world nation does also? Wouldn't you get up off your fat butt and develope and build a military that can protect you?

Why would the former SL and Verge systems attack Manticore? Well the SLN has kept the peace for over a millenia allowing most people to remain stupid an lazy. Now these neobarbs come along and punch out your protector. I'd expect that many of the former SL systems would be resentful and angry at Manticore for disrupting their fantasies of peace.

Now throw into this mix some predators such as the RF. (If anyone believes that the RF isn't the only, previously unknown system or group of systems that would be elated to exploit the demise of the SLN to carve out their own little empire, I have some bridge real estate in Brookly to sell you). Now imagine the predators are committing EE violations. Manticore's grand strategy as outlined by Honor Harrington is to transform as many former SL systems into trading partners and allies who remain independant so that they can't gang up on Manticore. TO prevent the acretion of polities so much larger than Manticore that they can threaten Manticore, Manticore has to eliminate the motive to join the or become an empire. Manticore has to enforce the EE. This will bring Manticore into conflict with the most advanced and aggressive predator systems and empires.

Star Knight wrote:

namelessfly wrote:By the time that Manticore has reconstituted its industrial capacity from the ground up, many of the nearly two thousand former SL member systems and untold hundreds of independant systems whose industrial capacity and technology is nearly comparable to Manticore's at the start of the first Havenite War will have reverse engineered MDMs and missile pods and possibly microfusion plants as well.

Why should they?
They have a long way to go before they reach the armament levels and thinking of even prewar days in the Haven Quadrant.
People seem to forget that those Sollys have been at peace for more than a millennia!
The SLN aside, there is literally nobody around whos actually knows how to organize and fight a decent interstellar war.
That fact will slow them down considerably, no matter what tech base.
They will reverse engineer MDMsm, Mikrofusion, FTL, SD(P)s or whatever?
What makes you think that that will occur?
Most of your 2000 worlds wont see much of Haven Quadrant tech. They will look upon the guys around them and build accordingly for the most part.
I said it before and i will say it again, most of the solly worlds wont even think about going to war with Manticore after the League is done. Thats just not in their interest.

namelessfly wrote:Even in the short term they can do varients of Technodyne's missile defense pods limpeted to their ships carrying massively large but still effective Multi-Stage Missiles similar to but much larger than the Caterphract.

Yes they could. And thats nothing a Invictus with Keyhole 2 cant handle.
Manticoran Anti Missile Doctrin is so advanced, it will be a long way to catch up. And not just range. Think EW too.

namelessfly wrote:WIth hundreds of potential opponents whose combined fleets massively outnumber the SEM's, the RMN should anticipate having to fight battles outnumberred ten-to-one. Even with APOLLO, a squadron of SD(P)s raiding an enemy system that is defended by a hundred or more SD varients backed up by system defense pods will get hammerred unless their defenses are improved.

So you take two squadrons. What timeframe are we talking about here? 20tyears from now?
I really dont see the problem. Manticoran assets are limited in the short term. 5 tyears from now Manticore will be okay and the Sollies still in big trouble. 10tyears from now the Sollies will recover while Manticore will have surpassed pre Oyster Bay production levels (not that i think they would actually continue to build ships, theres no need).

namelessfly wrote:Has it occurred to you that if your optimism were warrented there would be no point in Weber writing any more books?

If you ask me we are looking in the wrong direction. Forget what Solly worlds can do. Thats for a story 20 or 30 tyears from now. And Weber doesnt want to tell this story yet (if at all). The next Enemy will be Mesa. With totally different tech. I dont expect to hear much from the League after it has fallen. It will all be about Mesa and the RF, not some random Solly Worlds who rearm.
How much main stream novels are left anyway? Five or Six?
I expect the series to be over after the Mesans are defeated.

@thinkstoomuch

Present at the Battle of Solon.

2 Invictus class SD(P)s
~570 LAC's (6 (was 4) CLAC loads)
5 Agemnon BC(P)
4 Saganami-C CAs
4 Star Knight CAs
6 CLs

total RMN strength was:
2 SD(P)
6 CLAC 670 LACs
5 BC(P)
6 CA (Star Knights and Sag Cs)
8 CL
2 DD

All CLACs stayed behind at the hyper limit.
They were protected by one LAC Wing (90 LACs) and 3 CLs.

The real interesting thing to look at is the last Havanite salvo with 17.000 missiles.
At this point Intolerant was effectively done already. The SD(P) had lost both Keyhole 2 platforms at this point. That means they were basically engaging one Invictus Class Superdreadnought with a very decent screen.
Of the 17.000 missiles only as few as 60 lost the targets. First CM salvo from ships kill 3000
The second CM salvo aided with all LAC CM fire kills 4.000.
Third CM salvo gets another 4.000, EW gets 2700.
In the end 2900 get through the CM fire.
Thats very poor performance against effectively one Invictus Class SD(P) and 5 Battlecruisers with LAC-Screen.
I think that if Intolerant would have been undamaged at this point they would have been okay.

So i still think that a BatRon with 6 Invictus Class SD(P)s with a decent screen (2 or 3 LACs, some BC(L)s and Sag Cs) wont have much trouble.
Especially since as solbergb already wrote your missile wave will most likely not directed at one specific SD(P).


@Thirdbase

I can sum up an answer to all these questions. Because people want the best. How many people do you know that buy the newest phone, TV, computer, car, etc. even though what they have is perfect working order?

So, how many nations try to build Supercarriers? Not that much. Your argument doesnt work with governments and armaments. Governments acquire whats needed to defend themselves / fight the likely war. They dont get the best stuff around only because it is theoretically possible.
So our solly worlds will look at their most likely enemies and arm accordingly. And no, they wont look at Manticore.

Do Invictuses, Invicti?, have some magic power that prevents people from shooting at them?

Against stationary pods, yes. Its called Apollo MDM with ballistic component.

Please provide evidence that the League worlds, not the SLN, are nowhere near that. Remember that the SLN has a serious not made here problem, and that is not SLN discovered. The Manticore-Haven wars were observed by various SDFs firsthand, and I'm sure that many of them were interested in the expanding speed, range, and EW capabilities shown. It was the SLN that was dismissing everything.

I already posted this in another thead:
http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/181/1
Especially this one:

Fourth, at least some of the people in the League who do have a better idea of what's going on out Manticore's way are deliberately downplaying the threat. Without going into any great amount of detail as to who these people might be, I'll simply say that their various nefarious plans would not be advanced if it should happen that the Solarian League Navy (or any significant number of SDFs) should suddenly feel inspired to begin building any first-class, modern fleet.

The Mesans saw to it that noone build a modern fleet. Period.

And why does Manticore Mistletoe the freighters? They are civilian ships in orbit around a planet. Is there any evidence of Manticore attacking civilian ships or merchant ships?

Yeah well, they need to deploy at some point. You park some mistletoes nearby, just so you wont get surprised.

@bafoote
Well I know my history. But our history is not what happened it the Honorverse.
They were at peace for a millennia! We didn’t saw that in our history. This is not about being stupid or arrogant, this is totally human. If you are at peace for such a long time your society changes. You cant go to total war over night. Your people don’t have the mindset for it. Geez look at the Europeans. Huge parts of their societies became pacifist after three generations of peace. After a thousand years of peace and prosperity most people wont even have a concept of what it means to fight a war as a society.
Of course that will change as things get worse. But it ll take time.

@namelessfly

Would you please explain why the SLN can't figure out how to fight an intersteller war when it has just as much experience if not mroe than the RMN had at the beginning of the first Havenite War?

Cause they have been at peace for a millennia while Haven and Manticore had a little cold war going on for decades.
They will figure it out eventually. It ll be learning by doing for them, just as it was in the First Havanite War.
But they will be slower than Manticore and Haven. Its not about tech, its about the human mindsetting after a thousand years of peace. They are Sollies. Nobody dared to touch them for centuries. The Old League is the oldest stable governmental system in human history. For them, war in all its aspects is something they cant grasp anymore. They have no warrior /soldier culture as part of their society anymore. The remembrance of it is gone. Buried under centuries of stability and prosperity.

You ask if I wouldn’t act if my worldview collides with reality. No, I wouldn’t. I wouldn’t want to face the truth since I cant understand and accept the new reality.
I will deliberately and knowingly lie to myself, I will refuse to believe whats happening.
Its nothing uncommon, happens all the time.
You mentioned Israel, so look at Iran for example. Building nukes, supporting terrorists, the region is headed for a major catastrophe within the next 20 years at best. Does anyone besides Israel care? Not really. The world doesn’t want to face the problem and think it through to the end. Cause they know that it will mean war.
Look at what happens in European societies these days. Their societies are swamped with immigrants and they are in big trouble because of it. Why dont they do anything about it?
Why do you think the Americans are unable to battle their current deficit?
Or why do you think it took England and France so long to confront Hitler?
Its not because they are to stupid to see whats going on.
Instead, it’s the same problem every time. You don’t act cause you don’t want to face reality with all its implications. Cause you don’t have the will and/or the power to change your way of life.
But anyway, you think that the Sollys will admit to themselves that the universe is ending and find the will to do something about it?
That ll be a first.

I agree with you about social momentum. I think we all do. We just differ on how long it will take for said social momentum to change. France/England's social momentum from the horrors of WWI were what led directly to the lack of "enthusiasm" for confronting Hitler. But once war was engaged that changed at the drop of a hat. For France, they forgot about the rules of war in that there are none and Hitler went through Belgium and conquered them in short order on top of the tech/strategic tactical advantage the Germans had.

How long will an SL society world who according to DW all basically have the infrastructure, but not the spirit to change courses? To Grow a backbone? A year for reality to set in is what I would say. Then another couple to get their industry going. OF course there needs to be an instigating factor driving that new reality home. Without said instigating factor, many will bury their heads in the sand and hope waving their butts in the air will make those around them laugh humorously instead of spanking them.