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Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker

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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by Theemile   » Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:38 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
Daryl wrote:Theemile, your comment
"Personally, I believe the SLN would try massed transit assaults, under the mistaken assumption that the first wave should weaken the defenses, so the 2nd wave may have a larger chance of success, or the 3rd, or the 4th, or...."

assumes that the SLN naval personnel were prepared to do mass kamikaze attacks, with millions dying in each wave until they overwhelmed the defenders. Would you volunteer for the first wave?

SLN doctrine has always been about applying massive numbers to a problem, since they've got massive numbers. That hasn't been primarily about wormhole assaults, but as a way of thinking, it's plausible that the planners would go for that kind of approach.

That said, those plans will run into problems when the officers responsible for carrying them out - or even just doing the ordering, in some cases - consider the casualty implications. Attrition through massive numerical superiority may reduce casualties, when it does mean massive superiority locally and in that battle. It's not so applicable when you're taking unanswered blows without getting anything in (typical RMN-SLN encounters) or feeding your numbers a bit at a time through under exceptional disadvantages (any wormhole assault).

The fact that SLN doctrine and SLN willingness to apply it may diverge is another aspect of the SLN just not being ready for a war.

I think Tsang had the wildly optimistic assumption that the 20% or so of possible remaining Junction defenses still there and operable would be - contrary to all training or doctrine on the Manticoran end - so shocked to see SLN wallers coming through that they wouldn't fire before her wallers would be firing on them, demanding their surrender, and/or out of their range. She was figuring she wasn't conducting an actual wormhole assault so much as a surprise transit that would awe the defenders into becoming spectators.

It's not less stupid by any means - it's just different or additional stupidity. A better way to put it is that it's the result of coming from a culture that's had several hundred years of peace and the assumption that serious warfare isn't something that happens to the Solarian League - it's a throwback limited to Verge neobarbarians, and the mighty League just has to show up to make them roll over. Sure, there have been a couple freak anomalies out in Talbott, but the frothing madwoman Gold Peak isn't here and this is the Manticoran home system, so they've got to be terrified of the SLN showing up.


Adding to Jonathan's comments, is the military tradition that soldiers are supposed to lay down their lives, without concern, for the military good. From the Roman "Morituri te Salutant" to Kipling's "It is not for us to reason why, it is just for us to do and die" there is the recurring assumption that all soldiers will die, knowingly ignorant of the greater cause, or their relative part in it, under their assumption that their death was necessary to achieve that greater plan.

It's a bit of hogwash, especially when everyone knows their leaders heads are shoved so far up their respective leader's rumps, and so on, that no on can see the forest for the trees.

And as for the SLN's willingness, what do yo think Tang and the 2nd wave against Manticore forming at Tasmania were supposed to be? The was even talk of Filareta's force dying to wear the Manties down for the next, larger attack if necessary. Short of 10,000,000 idiots in spacesuits with rifles floating toward the junction, if Rampajet plan is not the space version not planning human waves, I don't know what is.

....And no, I would not personally volunteer to die in that blaze of disglory.
Last edited by Theemile on Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by Fox2!   » Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:48 pm

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... If nothing comes back....


You had better hope that the transiting attack force carefully and thoroughly purged their computers of any references to the make-up of the force holding the other side of the bridge. And that there are no survivors from flag or ship bridges, or tactical sections.

I would expect a couple of GA battle squadrons (with screening and scouting forces as appropriate) to pop out of hyper as quickly as they can be assembled and tasked. And probably not on the expected vector, either.

A few leading questions by a skilled interrogator, assisted by a tree cat, will result in a pretty good appreciation of the order of battle and any planned reinforcements.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by Fox2!   » Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:01 pm

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Theemile wrote:

...Adding to Jonathan's comments, is the military tradition that soldiers are supposed to lay down their lives, without concern, for the military good. ...


At some point, the survival instinct takes over, even in well disciplined troops, or leadership recognizes that continued attack (or defense) is futile, and the best result is saving the surviving forces for more effective use another day. This is the challenge Aral Vorkosigan faced at Escobar after the death of Prince Serge, and the Federation faced in the First Battle of Klendathu after the disaster there.

"Sav ke poo"

So far, the surviving SLN officers have seen the wisdom of surrender after engaging the RMN/GA.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by Brigade XO   » Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:29 pm

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I have wondered about the whole discussion of the "2nd" force being gathered at Tasmania as a follow-on to Filerta.
Why? I mean, the should Fillerta need something like another 400 capital ships- which are not going to get there any time soon since they haven't been ordered to proceed to manticore and the communication lag is abysmal?

Did the SLN expect Haven to, once it discovered Manticore had fallen to the SLN, try and take it from the SLN? Well behind that scenario is the need to defend the Junction (and the captive Manticore Protectorate including all the Junctin termini) from "all" the various neo-barb entities out that direction and various Core worlds who want a piece or some control over the scraps of the Manticore Empire.

What logic would have driven it? If there was an expectation that Filerta was going to be so badly mauled in takeing Manticore, what did they expect to happen after the Manticore government had allready surrenedered and the "remnants" of Filerta's fleet held the orbitals of three inhabited planets to be able to command the majority of the remaining RMN ships to surrender?
That they had the 100 odd SD going to attempt to force through the Sigma Draconis terminis was bad enough.

Lets see. SLN lost Cranda's Fleet. They lose Filerta's fleet. They had 100 SDs that discovered they couldn't even get near the Beowulf end of the Draconis wormhole. As part of the Filerta the parked -are gathering- another 400 SDs and attached ships way the hell out at "Tasmania"? Where are the ships that are not out attempting to crush Manticore?

Makes no sense.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by munroburton   » Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:17 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:I have wondered about the whole discussion of the "2nd" force being gathered at Tasmania as a follow-on to Filerta.
Why? I mean, the should Fillerta need something like another 400 capital ships- which are not going to get there any time soon since they haven't been ordered to proceed to manticore and the communication lag is abysmal?

Did the SLN expect Haven to, once it discovered Manticore had fallen to the SLN, try and take it from the SLN? Well behind that scenario is the need to defend the Junction (and the captive Manticore Protectorate including all the Junctin termini) from "all" the various neo-barb entities out that direction and various Core worlds who want a piece or some control over the scraps of the Manticore Empire.

What logic would have driven it? If there was an expectation that Filerta was going to be so badly mauled in takeing Manticore, what did they expect to happen after the Manticore government had allready surrenedered and the "remnants" of Filerta's fleet held the orbitals of three inhabited planets to be able to command the majority of the remaining RMN ships to surrender?
That they had the 100 odd SD going to attempt to force through the Sigma Draconis terminis was bad enough.

Lets see. SLN lost Cranda's Fleet. They lose Filerta's fleet. They had 100 SDs that discovered they couldn't even get near the Beowulf end of the Draconis wormhole. As part of the Filerta the parked -are gathering- another 400 SDs and attached ships way the hell out at "Tasmania"? Where are the ships that are not out attempting to crush Manticore?

Makes no sense.


It's more like 600 SDs, IIRC. I suspect their assembly had much to do with ticking the "Do we have a plan B?" checkbox for Operation Raging Justice as it did anything else.

Although one has to remember that Rajampet was taking orders from the Alignment at the time he was assembling this second armada. There may be an unrevealed reason they wanted 600 SLN wallers at Tasmania.

And while Filareta's force was considered enough to take the Manticoran system, by this point the Star Empire was 50 systems strong. If Filareta had won, but lost 200 or 300 wallers doing it, he would be ill-placed to move against Trevor's Star, Silesia, Talbott, etc..

The surprise is that the Tasmania force wasn't sent to Beowulf, to make use of the wormhole.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by CRC   » Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:59 pm

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munroburton wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:I have wondered about the whole discussion of the "2nd" force being gathered at Tasmania as a follow-on to Filerta.
Why? I mean, the should Fillerta need something like another 400 capital ships- which are not going to get there any time soon since they haven't been ordered to proceed to manticore and the communication lag is abysmal?

Did the SLN expect Haven to, once it discovered Manticore had fallen to the SLN, try and take it from the SLN? Well behind that scenario is the need to defend the Junction (and the captive Manticore Protectorate including all the Junctin termini) from "all" the various neo-barb entities out that direction and various Core worlds who want a piece or some control over the scraps of the Manticore Empire.

What logic would have driven it? If there was an expectation that Filerta was going to be so badly mauled in takeing Manticore, what did they expect to happen after the Manticore government had allready surrenedered and the "remnants" of Filerta's fleet held the orbitals of three inhabited planets to be able to command the majority of the remaining RMN ships to surrender?
That they had the 100 odd SD going to attempt to force through the Sigma Draconis terminis was bad enough.

Lets see. SLN lost Cranda's Fleet. They lose Filerta's fleet. They had 100 SDs that discovered they couldn't even get near the Beowulf end of the Draconis wormhole. As part of the Filerta the parked -are gathering- another 400 SDs and attached ships way the hell out at "Tasmania"? Where are the ships that are not out attempting to crush Manticore?

Makes no sense.


It's more like 600 SDs, IIRC. I suspect their assembly had much to do with ticking the "Do we have a plan B?" checkbox for Operation Raging Justice as it did anything else.

Although one has to remember that Rajampet was taking orders from the Alignment at the time he was assembling this second armada. There may be an unrevealed reason they wanted 600 SLN wallers at Tasmania.

And while Filareta's force was considered enough to take the Manticoran system, by this point the Star Empire was 50 systems strong. If Filareta had won, but lost 200 or 300 wallers doing it, he would be ill-placed to move against Trevor's Star, Silesia, Talbott, etc..

The surprise is that the Tasmania force wasn't sent to Beowulf, to make use of the wormhole.


I don't think the Tasmania force was prepared in time to transit via Beowulf. Just the 100+.

Keep in mind that the Alignment needs Battle Fleet to be as thoroughly destroyed as possible. The Alignment KNEW the Manticores battle line was not damaged during their attack, so they knew Filareta would get reamed, that's why their nanotech fired all missiles blindly.

The second fleet at Tasmania is just more of the same. The SLN cannot afford 1000+ SDNs to be destroyed or captured and still keep the SLN together, by force, when the Alignment, via the Renaissance Factor, actually surfaces with the MAN and part of FF to defend it.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by JeffEngel   » Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:36 pm

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There's the ticking the plan B box aspect, yes. And some of it may be Alignment prompting to get even more of BF's ready forces way out in the middle of nowhere when the League cracks up.

But another aspect may be just traditional League doctrine and battle expectations at work. For centuries, capital ship combat has been indecisive - the weaker party falls back without critical losses, if they can fall back. Filareta was expected - by the League planners, not the Alignment ones with Daniels' get-us-all-killed nanotech failsafe - to do exactly that falling back if Manticore's defenses were too tough. He planned to be able to retreat. He was going in cautiously, as far as he knew.

(It's worth noting that Filareta was no idiot by SLN flag officer standards - people who want the SLN "first team" to show up should wrap their head around the idea that they really don't get much better than him. They're getting, slowly, more informed, but if you want real tactical skill and leadership quality, you should be looking at Luis Roszak and he's not going to be gunning for the GA.)

If Filareta's force wasn't going to win, the planners probably figured he'd withdraw more or less intact. After that, he could lurk in the outer system in expected safety, or pull back to a nearby League client state or system, get reinforced from Tasmania, and go back in with the two forces combined minus very limited expected losses in that near-worst case scenario.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:44 pm

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Sully wrote:
Theemile wrote:Oh, I agree - but the SLN hasn't seemed to realize it - See Adm. Tang's taskforce. They actually thought that they had a chance of sneaking through the Manticore Wormhole - which we know that even if 80% of the Terminus's defenses were destroyed, they wouldn't have had a chance.

Personally, I believe the SLN would try massed transit assaults, under the mistaken assumption that the first wave should weaken the defenses, so the 2nd wave may have a larger chance of success, or the 3rd, or the 4th, or....

This is another case of doctrine not keeping up with technology, and the SLN is both behind on technology and doctrine on the technology they do have.


Am I the only one who finds SLN stupidity like this so outlandish to be implausible? That it breaks my suspension-of-disbelief?


I don't--because I think the orders really came from the Alignment. It was supposed to be a suicide mission but the commander was fed lies so he wouldn't know that.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by drothgery   » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:40 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:(It's worth noting that Filareta was no idiot by SLN flag officer standards - people who want the SLN "first team" to show up should wrap their head around the idea that they really don't get much better than him. They're getting, slowly, more informed, but if you want real tactical skill and leadership quality, you should be looking at Luis Roszak and he's not going to be gunning for the GA.)

Filareta was regarded by his peers (who were largely unaware of his personal issues) as a below-average fleet commander. He was much more capable than Crandall or Byng. That doesn't mean he was good, even for the SLN.
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Re: Late 1921 PD SLN Raid Planning - Zunker
Post by JeffEngel   » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:50 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:
Sully wrote:Am I the only one who finds SLN stupidity like this so outlandish to be implausible? That it breaks my suspension-of-disbelief?


I don't--because I think the orders really came from the Alignment. It was supposed to be a suicide mission but the commander was fed lies so he wouldn't know that.

There's also the way that the SLN distributes stupidity so that no one has to bear so much of it they drool and lose all command of language.

They start off with a whole lot of arrogance, which, historically, is not implausible at all. That leaves them not paying much attention to reports of Haven sector fighting technology and downplaying what they hear - and they repeat that at each step between the initial reports and the commanders on the (unexpectedly!) sharp end.

They combine that with very confident assumptions about how combat works on the basis of a whole lot of history - which would have been entirely justified until very recently.

On top of all of that, they've got enemies who don't care to let them have accurate information even if the SLN would accept it, and either conceal or distort capabilities for their own ends.

Manticore doesn't show off all they can do often, so when they switch gears and show off as best they can just to get the League commander to understand how outclassed they are, it comes as a shock and often something they're utterly unprepared to accept.

Beowulf, who should know what their neighbors and family have, have not been telling the SLN about it, which has to make the SLN even less willing to buy the other SDF's reports without that corroboration from what ought to be the best League source.

Beyond the deceptive enemy and the misleadingly silent League member, they've got the cancer in their intelligence pipeline of the Alignment agents there, along with others in the command pipeline. The Alignment has no interest in the SLN ever having a realistic appreciation of GA capabilities, and the SLN has only recently had the slightest reason to suspect that infiltration and they're backed into a corner politically that prevents them taking any serious action to address it.

The League government and Navy have spent centuries being able, well able, supremely able, to be slack and sloppy, and, as a result, have become slack and sloppy. If anything, they sometimes seem too competent to me given that background.
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